Article: Phil Hughes as 2017's CC Sabathia

[Seth Stohs]

Things slow down as we get older, it’s a fact of life. Much has been made of Phil Hughes’ radar gun readings this spring, but pitchers have been being forced to learn how to pitch with diminished velocity for ages. This is nothing new.

 

The good news is you don’t have to look too far back to find a pitcher who successfully reinvented himself after losing a few ticks on his fastball. Just last season, CC Sabathia reemerged for the Yankees, logging a 3.91 ERA over 30 starts. His ERA the previous three seasons combined had been nearly a run higher.Mike Axisa did a great year-end writeup for River Ave Blues on Sabathia in which he highlighted three key ingredients that contributed to the new and improved CC: 1) His new knee brace; 2) His new cutter, and; 3) His sobriety. Here’s with how Sabathia explained his success to Newsday’s Anthony Rieberin August.

 

“I have more choices. I can use my changeup, I can throw the backdoor slider, my cutter, obviously. I’m more well-equipped with what I have now.”

 

Sabathia and Hughes are two different people and very different pitchers, but I think Twins fans can look to CC’s turnaround as a source of optimism. It sounds like Hughes is finally healthy and he’s working hard on evolving his pitching repertoire.

 

Back in January, Nick Nelson was already warning people not to sleep on Hughes. Considering the amount of work Hughes has been able to get in this spring. I wasn’t ready to hop aboard the comeback train quite yet at that point, but after seeing the amount of work Hughes has been able to log this spring, I’m starting to come around.

 

Yes, even despite some pretty ugly numbers, I’m encouraged about what we’ve seen from Hughes. He has a 6.55 ERA and has given up seven home runs in 22 official innings this spring, but he’s put in a ton of work on his breaking and offspeed pitches. Mike Berardino sent out a Tweet during Hughes’ most recent outing on Monday saying that of his final 24 pitches, Hughes threw just five fastballs.

 

A few months ago I would have confidently bet against Hughes even being ready for the season. Yet here we are, just a few days from the opener, and one could argue he actually appears to be the starter most ready to go out and give the Twins 100 pitches. That’s remarkable considering what he’s been through since June.

 

It’s easy to forget all of Hughes’ most recent injuries don’t have anything directly to do with his pitching arm. His 2016 season ended when a batted ball fractured his leg. He underwent surgery to remove a rib in order to correct thoracic outlet syndrome. That should help solve his issues with nerves and blood vessels that resulted in numbness in his pitching hand. But it’s not like there was anything wrong structurally with Hughes’ elbow or shoulder.

 

Now before people try to have me committed, I’d just like to temper enthusiasm. Even after a successful reinvention, Sabathia is never going to get back to being a perennial Cy Young contender. The Phil Hughes of 2014 is gone, and he’s probably never coming back.

 

Over the past two seasons Hughes has a 4.83 ERA and opposing hitters have teed off on him to the tune of a .296/.320/.502 line. He needs to improve, but coming off a season in which Twins starters posted a league-worst 5.39 ERA, the bar in which we measure Hughes’ success doesn’t need to be set at his 2014 levels.

 

Sabathia’s turnaround was the result of him basically abandoning his four seamer and instead leaning on the cutter. Hughes already features a cutter, but he’s trying to develop his changeup this spring in the hopes that added wrinkle can be the magic ingredient that keeps hitters off balance.

 

This much is for sure: even if he’s 100 percent healthy Hughes cannot continue to pitch the way he has the past two seasons and expect better results. I think we can conclude that his average fastball velocity probably isn’t getting back to over 93 mph like it was in 2014. The good news is he and Neil Allen appear to be well aware of that fact. Here’s what Allen told Mike Berardino earlier this month:

 

“It’s hard for a veteran guy who’s been doing things one way for as many years as he has to change. But we’ve got to make him change.”

 

To Hughes’ credit, he appears to be buying into the evolution. The results haven’t always pretty, but as he explained to La Velle E. Neal III after a recent rocky outing, spring training is the perfect time to tinker.

 

“Obviously I’ve had my struggles the last couple of years and I’m not satisfied with just hoping things will get better because of surgery or something like that. I’m actively trying to become a better pitcher all around. There’s not a better time than spring training to start working on stuff and incorporate different things and get a feel for new pitches you are trying to work on.”

 

Even if he gets off to a rough start, I’m hoping Hughes remains committed to reinventing himself. The Twins have him under contract for another $13.2 million over each of the next two seasons. It may not be this year, but sometime over the life of that contract the Twins are going to look to Hughes to be a contributing member of a winning rotation.

 

I anticipate there to be some rough patches, but it makes all the sense in the world for the Twins to give Hughes every opportunity to solve the riddle of what he needs to do to reinvent himself. It may seem like a long shot, but if CC Sabathia can reignite his career, why not Phil Hughes?

 

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[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Having a different pitch caller might also help.

[jsteve96]

putting in more work doesn't automatically make you a better player. He was trash in the Spring and should not even be in the rotation over Duffey or Berrios. I'll be surprised if he's still in the rotation by June.

[The Wise One]

Spring phenoms fool people. Veterans doing badly is called experimenting 

 

[HitInAPinch]

I'm not so sure about the "most recent injuries don’t have anything directly to do with his pitching arm" commentary.  His left [landing] leg was fractured and the mentioned "thoracic outlet syndrome" are no small things when combined.  Great news that he's embarrassing the need to change, but I have my doubts about his returning to the 2014 level. 

[by jiminy]

He doesn't expect 2014 production either. He just said, at least he's not just trying to do the same old things that didn't work. He is trying different pitches. No one knows if they will work. But in his case, unknown results are a step up.

 

No one would be shocked if he flopped. But I think it's totally fair to say we can't judge his results from a spring in which he told everyone including the hurts that he was mostly going to throw his worst pitch, the changeup. Any pitcher who asked he was going to throw half changeups and did so is going to get hammered. The question is whether it will get hammered once it's a rare surprise.

 

Unfortunately that won't matter if everyone is teeing off on his 87 mph fastball. So it is a long shot, yes. No one expects 2014 Hughes. But 2016 Sabathia would be great, at this point.

 

On a good team he shoudn't start till he's actually doing that. I guess the thinking is, the 2017 Twins are a minor league team. They are all just auditioning for 2018, so whether they are here or Rochester doesn't matter. Park, hughes, berrios, chargois -- does it really matter where they play? Maybe it doesn't. I would go by who is more fun to watch, personally. But it doesn't really matter for next year. Unless guys like duffey, berrios and Mejia rot on the bench. That's the only real mistake.

[by jiminy]

Sorry for typos and double post, I'd delete or edit of I could!

[Yossarian]

I'm afraid we'll only have one good season to show for the 60-odd million TR gave Hughes.  The best thing about Phil is that we'll need to call up Berrios in June to replace him as he'll either be back on the DL or have the worst starter's ERA in the AL.

[scottz]

Hoping for the best is great, but for every veteran who figures out a different way to succeed, there are dozens who figure out a way to fade away. I'd love for Hughes to have something parallel to Sabathia, but I'd guess that Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver and many others would like that, too.

 

Good luck to Hughes.

Stay stretched out to Duffey.

[mikelink45]

Without the contract how would we be looking at Hughes?  I saw some expensive players jettisoned by other teams this spring, but I know the Twins cannot do that.  I hope Hughes turns it around, but right now it does not feel like it. 

[killertwinfan]

Well, I guess I can buy that perspective... but how long of a leash do you give him? 5 outings, 10?  No doubt the downside risk here is why we are carrying 13 pitchers.  I really don't like the notion that because you are paying him a lot, you have to play him.  If he is not ready, get him ready first. Then play him.  I don't think anyone has high hopes for this optimism to turn into reality.  Can this guy even create some value in a relief role? 

[adorduan]

There's a lot of hopium in this article.

[Tom Froemming]

 

There's a lot of hopium in this article.

 

I guess you could say I'm high on Phil Hughes  

[savvyspy]

I'd put the chance he's not even on the roster by the end of the season WAY higher than Hughes somehow turns into CC Sabathia.

 

But that's the great thing about the week before the opener. Anything can happen and we're currently in the playoff chase.

[Doomtints]

The bar is low with this team. If Hughes can achieve a 5.00 ERA, he's already the #2 on last year's team. Last year's team looks a lot like this year's team.

 

I would think the ceiling for Hughes is about a 4.50 ERA -- and it almost pains me to put his potential as being that good. I'm not expecting him to be serviceable. I would love to be proven wrong.

Edited March 31, 2017 by Doomtints

[Mike Sixel]

Love the optimism. Not sure I share it, but he sure deserves 5-10 starts (once you decide to give him a shot) at this point. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

We're still in March. Good to have this kind of optimism but I can't say I share it.

[laloesch]

Can he learn a knuckle ball?  

 

"Spring phenoms fool people. Veterans doing badly is called experimenting."  

 

I think this is wishful thinking and to be honest Phil has been getting destroyed in ST so far while throwing in the upper 80's.  Not a good sign at all.  TJ?  Shoulder issues?  

Edited March 31, 2017 by laloesch

[Thrylos]

Working on off-speed pitches and breaking balls and the like "tinkering" in the Spring, is wonderful and great if you are a veteran pitcher who has a secure job (like Hughes) with one exception:  Unless you are coming back from a serious injury (like Hughes) and you need to build up velocity, command, and control of the fastball to get out major league hitters when the season opens.

 

That's the issue here.  Not sure that Hughes is there yet as far as his fastball goes from what I have seen in the Spring and what I read.  And if his fastball is not there, he will be more like the 2015 (lead the league in HR with 29 in 27 games) than the 2014 Hughes.   Spring Training stats "do not matter", unless they do.  And Hughes allowed 7 HRs in 6 games this Spring, all but one (change) with fastballs.  I file that under stats that matter in the Spring, because it was not experimentation, it was on something that should work.

 

Could I live with 2015 Hughes in 2017?  I'd take his first half (18 GS, 88-1/3 IP, 8-6, 4.32 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 0.9 BB/9) over a whole season, which translates to 36 GS, 177 IP, and 14-12 record.  I do not think that: a. we can expect more than this from Hughes in 2017. and b. I cannot think of many people who would be upset if Hughes does that.  That's his 2017 ceiling (maybe few more IP), pretty much

 

But he has to prove that he can use his fastball to get major league hitters out.

Edited March 31, 2017 by Thrylos

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Could I live with 2015 Hughes in 2017?  I'd take his first half (18 GS, 88-1/3 IP, 8-6, 4.32 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 0.9 BB/9) over a whole season, which translates to 36 GS, 177 IP, and 14-12 record.  I do not think that: a. we can expect more than this from Hughes in 2017. and b. I cannot think of many people who would be upset if Hughes does that.  That's his 2017 ceiling (maybe few more IP), pretty much

If Hughes is indeed a 90-91mph guy going forward, I'd be thrilled with that number. It's probably his ceiling at that velocity, IMO.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I agree that the size of the contract does not, or should not, have any bearing on who plays. No well run business looks at their sunk costs when deciding how to move forward. Chasing bad decisions is bad business. I think Hughes has shown enough in past performance and spring training to be given a spot in the rotation on a relatively short leash. To me that's 5 to 10 starts. I also think that is why Duffy is still on the team; so they could give Santiago and Hughes those 5 to 10 starts with Duffy poised to eat the innings they don't and replace them if they don't perform. I disagree with the decision to send Park to AAA (I would have cut Santana) but I agree with and understand the need for 13 pictures given this rotation.

 

The size of Hughes' contract may actually help us in one perverse way. If he isn't effective his contract is so big that he might actually pass through waivers. Does anyone know if  he's in a position to refuse an assignment to AAA if we could actually speak in through waivers? I could see a situation where he is inconsistently effective early and it would make sense for him to go pitch somewhere else for 4 to 6 starts in May and June in the hope that he would become more effective and could actually contribute in the second half of the year or be decent trade bait.

I believe anyone on the 40-man roster with more than five years of service time can refuse an outright assignment to the minors. My guess would be in this scenario Hughes would just elect to become a free agent. The Twins would still have to pay him every penny owed on his contract.

 

I think if you're looking for ways to ditch Hughes, the most likely outcome would be something similar to the Ricky Nolasco trade. The Twins would have to package Hughes with a prospect and chip in some money. 

[Blake]

I'd like to be optimistic but it wasn't that long ago that Hughes was being compared to Cliff Lee.

[Thrylos]

 

I'd like to be optimistic but it wasn't that long ago that Hughes was being compared to Cliff Lee.

 

Here.  And by a blogger who went on to get a job in an MLB FO.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Here.  And by a blogger who went on to get a job in an MLB FO.

 

Where he literally says he isn't predicting it would happen. It was a thought piece, and he clearly says he doesn't think it will happen. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

And it's hard to predict a guy will lose 3mph on his fastball at age 28.

[Doomtints]

Pitchfx shows that Hughes is a 'right down broadway" type of pitcher.  Without velocity there are no good things that can happen for Hughes. Batters need to do very little to adjust to hit off of him because the ball is always going over the plate in the same spot.

 

Hughes has to learn to paint the corners if he can't throw 92.5+. Maybe Santana can show him how to throw it down and away once in a while.

Edited March 31, 2017 by Doomtints

[nicksaviking]

 

 but he’s put in a ton of work on his breaking and offspeed pitches.
 

 

Breaking and offspeed pitches? So he's working on his curve AND his change? Or is he just working on his change which could be considered breaking and offspeed?

 

Because he has barely thrown his changeup in five years.

 

Either way, good luck to him, he's going to need at least one of the two pitches and they're going to have to be good if the other pitches are a sub 90MPH heater and a cutter. Hughes' curve hasn't been very good since he was a rookie, so if he has figured something out, more power to him.

 

Sabathia's best pitch is his slider though and it always has been.

[nicksaviking]

 

And it's hard to predict a guy will lose 3mph on his fastball at age 28.

 

It seems to me guys start losing velocity after only a few seasons into their career. Maybe 1.5-2MPH is the norm but I don't know that 3 is a huge outlier. He's 28 in people years but he's been in the majors a decade; in pitcher years he's like 34.

[Doomtints]

 

He's 28 in people years but he's been in the majors a decade; in pitcher years he's like 34.

 

Great point. You need to be working in a FO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It seems to me guys start losing velocity after only a few seasons into their career. Maybe 1.5-2MPH is the norm but I don't know that 3 is a huge outlier. He's 28 in people years but he's been in the majors a decade; in pitcher years he's like 34.

Eh, yes and no. While Hughes has been around for awhile, he only has 1200 career IP. And he came to the majors at a very young age. Is there a significant difference between throwing MLB and MiLB innings? I'm sure there's a small difference but it's not like MiLB guys throw 2-3mph under their limit to save their arm for the bigs.

 

I just grabbed a pitcher randomly and looked at his stats: Roy Halladay. Despite Halladay not becoming a full-time regular until age 25, he already had 1500 IP by the time he finished his age 30 season. And Halladay threw 650 MiLB innings. Hughes threw only 340.

 

A drop in velocity is to be expected as a pitcher crosses 30 years old but an immediate 2-3mph drop due to injury cannot be predicted.