Article: Tyler Jay and Baseball's Evolving Bullpen

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm also with you that bullpen usage/strategy has not changed during the regular season. We'll most likely see teams copy the same blueprint Cleveland and Chicago did during the playoffs, but until it happens in the regular season, I'm going to believe in the status quo.... 

Hah, you beat me to it.

[Mike Sixel]

Let's see what fast track means before we get all giddy.....

[Mike Sixel]

There is some discussion, and even a "ranking" of the "Andrew Miller" change in bullpens here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-16-30/

 

don't go if you want to be happy about the Twins' bullpen....

[Vanimal46]

 

There is some discussion, and even a "ranking" of the "Andrew Miller" change in bullpens here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-16-30/

 

don't go if you want to be happy about the Twins' bullpen....

 

26th ranked Starting Pitching, and 27th ranked bullpen. This should be a fun year.... 

[Mike Sixel]

Funny, I don't think "fun" is the word I'd pick....

 

But, this is what you get, imo, when being not bad takes precedence over rebuilding, you get bad.

[Steve Lein]

 

So, who did the Twins pass on that was drafted later -- besides Benintendi -- who is that lock of an Ace starting pitcher?

 

Yup, I've pointed this out in other threads. Go through the first round pitchers from that season. There is not a single one I would say has worked out better than Jay has so far, even if you call what has gone on with him disparaging or whatever. Fulmer made the majors with the White Sox last year, but it wasn't based on how well he was doing in the minors (He would still be at AA under the Twins old regime). I highly doubt the Twins were even considering Benintendi given their depth of outfielders that were on the cusp of the majors, and he wouldn't be in the majors with the Twins yet either (partly because of that depth already there).

[Tom Froemming]

I think bullpen usage will be the No. 1 thing to watch across the league this season. I'm hoping we see the return of the 100-inning reliever. The Reds have already been talking about using Iglesias and/or Lorenzen in that type of role. The Padres could lean on Brad Hand more this year and have him top 100.

 

Even in a strict relief role, I'm hoping Jay exceeds his innings from last season (83 2/3), though I doubt that happens.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yup, I've pointed this out in other threads. Go through the first round pitchers from that season. There is not a single one I would say has worked out better than Jay has so far, even if you call what has gone on with him disparaging or whatever. Fulmer made the majors with the White Sox last year, but it wasn't based on how well he was doing in the minors (He would still be at AA under the Twins old regime). I highly doubt the Twins were even considering Benintendi given their depth of outfielders that were on the cusp of the majors, and he wouldn't be in the majors with the Twins yet either (partly because of that depth already there).

 

It can be the "right" choice, and still be disappointing. 

 

If they passed on him Benintendi due to other players in the majors, that would be bad. I do agree, he'd be in low A right now, maybe high A.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[bird]

 

This is exactly why I take issue with the Twins investing so many high draft picks in college relievers during the 2012 draft. It's not uncommon for failed starters to experience success in the bullpen with velo improvements etc.-- why do we need to draft guys whose ceiling is inherently limited? 

 

I understand this point of view. However, I cut them more slack for a few reasons.

 

First of all, after we get through the first half of the first round of any draft, the odds of a selection overcoming the issues that caused them to drop this far down in the draft? Less than 50% for the rest of the first round, dropping to 25% in round two, and dropping precipitously after that? What percentage of all 3rd rounders ever see a MLB mound? So, taking chances on the Melotakis's and Cedaroth's and Burdi's and Bard's isn't quite as ridiculous as it's portrayed to be. If you score with one every other year, you're probably ahead of the game.

 

Second, the organization ran into some pretty tough luck with injuries to so many of these prospects: Burdi, Wimmers, Baxendale, Bard, Jones, Melotakis, Chargois, Jorge, Rosario, Guerra, Tootle, Bashore...and maybe others drafted in the first 2-3 rounds. Sure, they missed on a few too, like Hunt, Gutierrez, and Bullock. But remember, these guys were already long shots for the most part, 50% or much less. The injuries derailed some careers and pushed back the timetables for others.

 

Third, the jury is still deliberating the issue. Tyler Duffey, Chargois, Melotakis, Burdi, Bard, Wimmers...there are a number of 2nd and 3rd round selections (or later) that could pan out and turn the effort to correct the previous shortcomings into a successful one. How many winners will it take? When might people stop mentioning a couple of highly visible failures and instead (begrudgingly?) acknowledge a couple of winners? I for one am optimistic that a few of these selections will still end up looking like very smart investments.

 

Fourth, as is frequently mentioned, the value of high-leverage RP's has been sky-rocketing. People can complain about the current status of the farm system, but I think the experts still regard the system as being pretty rich when it comes to excellent bullpen prospects.

 

Fifth, drafting and developing RP's and drafting starters and then converting them are not mutually exclusive things. Taylor Rogers, perhaps Wimmers now, Perkins in the past...but the fact of the matter is that you can't count on a huge uptick in velo, so if you want velo in your pen and are curmudgeons about paying for it on the open market, you probably need to draft it.

 

So let's wait a while longer. This year and next should be telling.

Edited March 28, 2017 by birdwatcher

[Steve Lein]

 

Of the others, only Dillon Tate has so far been a bust in the minors. Everybody else is at least considered at top 35 prospect at the moment.

 

No, they're not. Kolby Allard is the only one that appears nearly that high on lists, and he's barely out of rookie ball.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I understand this point of view. However, I cut them more slack for a few reasons.

 

First of all, after we g...

 

So let's wait a while longer. This year and next should be telling.

 

I bet if we searched not that hard, we'd see that we were told "just wait, in 2016 you'll see these RPs up, and we can judge the strategy then". I assume some guys will get hurt again, and some will be blocked by mediocre veterans, and we'll be told to just wait until 2018....

 

Also, Wimmers was a SP, not a RP, when drafted.

 

I'll acknowledge the wins when they actually occur for more than 1 year in the majors, that seems fair.

[bird]

 

26th ranked Starting Pitching, and 27th ranked bullpen. This should be a fun year.... 

 

 

Come on, Vanimal, let's let them play the games. I can easily see them with final rankings of, like, 23rd and 24th or something.

[Vanimal46]

 

Come on, Vanimal, let's let them play the games. I can easily see them with final rankings of, like, 23rd and 24th or something.

 

Baby steps.... 

[bird]

 

I bet if we searched not that hard, we'd see that we were told "just wait, in 2016 you'll see these RPs up, and we can judge the strategy then". I assume some guys will get hurt again, and some will be blocked by mediocre veterans, and we'll be told to just wait until 2018....

 

Also, Wimmers was a SP, not a RP, when drafted.

 

I'll acknowledge the wins when they actually occur for more than 1 year in the majors, that seems fair.

 

 

I'll wait to acknowledge the wins too, Mike. I'll also wait to hammer a nail in the coffin, that seems fair. It's a simple fact that Burdi, Melotakis, Bard, Chargois, and a number of others drafted and groomed as RP's are regarded with promise and pitching in the high minors. Every one of them missed a full season or more due to injury. Nobody said they can control the timetable for any of these prospects. Any frustration we feel about that issue is sort of superfluous, really.

Edited March 28, 2017 by birdwatcher

[alskntwnsfn]

Admittedly, I love playing the what-if-we'd-drafted-X game, but this is not a case where there's much blame for the Twins. We NEEDED pitching, preferably high-upside college pitching in the 2015 draft. People say they always take the best available player, but given our young OF logjam there was no way we were passing on the best lefty reliever in college who could reach 98 mph. 

 

Jay hasn't shown enough in the minors to be in the conversation with the best relievers in the major leagues, but that is not to say he might not get there. We'll have to see, these things are impossible to predict. But even that misses the larger point about constructing bullpens. Most bullpens feature several resurrection projects. Guys who started and failed, or just plain failed but were able to bounce back and find success in the bullpen. We need a plan for developing young pitchers, but we also should have a plan for resurrecting potential diamonds in the rough. 

 

The things that Craig Breslow did to reinvent himself are technically impressive. Why not employ those tactics as an organization with other pitchers? Could it be a selling point for attracting minor league FA's or 1-year prove-it type players? 

[laloesch]

I still question the need to do this now.  Why not let Jay pitch one more season in the minors as a starter and see how he does?  Last season he pitched okay.  Why not see if he can build upon that?  It's just rare to draft lefties with his power and selection of pitches.  Doesn't it seem like a waste to write him off as a RP at this point?  He's only 22 years old.  Besides I doubt he makes the majors this season in any capacity given Paul Molitor is managing and has a preference for "veterans."   

Edited March 28, 2017 by laloesch

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'll wait to acknowledge the wins too, Mike. I'll also wait to hammer a nail in the coffin, that seems fair. It's a simple fact that Burdi, Melotakis, Bard, Chargois, and a number of others drafted and groomed as RP's are regarded with promise and pitching in the high minors. Every one of them missed a full season or more due to injury. Nobody said they can control the timetable for any of these prospects. Any frustration we feel about that issue is sort of superfluous, really.

 

Basically, as long as they are in the minors, you can keep arguing that giving up on them is not ok. Basically, I can never win this argument, no matter how many fail or don't make it, because there will always be more minor league RPs. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I still question the need to do this now.  Why not let Jay pitch one more season in the minors as a starter and see how he does?  Last season he pitched okay.  Why not see if he can build upon that?  It's just rare to draft lefties with his power and selection of pitches.  Doesn't it seem like a waste to write him off as a RP at this point?  He's only 22 years old.  Besides I doubt he makes the majors this season in any capacity given Paul Molitor is managing and has a preference for "veterans."   

I think the reason it was done now is because Falvey and Levine see something in Jay they don't like as a starter.

 

If you have a player who will take 2-3 years to make the MLB rotation and then struggle in a 4/5 role indefinitely, do you allow him to keep starting or do you put him in the bullpen with the expectation he'll be in Minnesota within 18 months and be a better than average MLB reliever?

 

It's not an easy decision to make and I doubt they made the decision casually... But ultimately, you put your players in the position where they will provide the most team wins going forward. And obviously, Falvey feels Jay can do that from the bullpen, not the rotation.

 

And none of this includes any health considerations you have about Jay as a starter and the number of overall pitches he'll throw if he continues starting.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the reason it was done now is because Falvey and Levine see something in Jay they don't like as a starter.

 

If you have a player who will take 2-3 years to make the MLB rotation and then struggle in a 4/5 role indefinitely, do you allow him to keep starting or do you put him in the bullpen with the expectation he'll be in Minnesota within 18 months and be a better than average MLB reliever?

 

It's not an easy decision to make and I doubt they made the decision casually... But ultimately, you put your players in the position where they will provide the most team wins going forward. And obviously, Falvey feels Jay can do that from the bullpen, not the rotation.

18 months is a fast track? Sigh, our standards here are so low...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

18 months is a fast track? Sigh, our standards here are so low...

I was being very conservative. I suspect the timeline is more like 12 months.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I was being very conservative. I suspect the timeline is more like 12 months.

 

I am hoping more like 4, but think you are probably correct.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I am hoping more like 4, but think you are probably correct.

It's hard to know, really. Jay hasn't been a full-time reliever since 2015.

 

It's possible it takes some time to get back into the flow of relieving. It's possible he drops a pitch and rockets through the system in a matter of months.

 

I suspect we'll have a much better idea what to expect by the end of April once he gets a handful of games under his belt.

[chpettit19]

1. I agree with all the people saying postseason Miller isn't something we're going to see during the regular season from any team for quite a while. You'd blow your guy's arm out in a month and a half.

 

2. I'd say the reason the Indians and Cubs were able to use their "closers" in different situations is more because of bullpen depth than it was out of those guys simply being so good. In the playoffs the games are generally all very close and getting out of a jam in the 5th-8th inning by using your best arm is only good when you can bring in someone else you trust to get those 3 outs in the 9th. The Royals are still the real blueprint people are/should be following. It's getting 3+ arms that can get 3 outs with 0 runs on the board almost every time out. At that point you can use them however you see fit. The Royals prefered set innings and just knew the other team wasn't scoring after the 6th, while the Cubs and Indians mixed and matched their power arms and had them going at different times. The Orioles have followed the Royals set roles strategy to great success with Brach, O'day, and Britton. The true blueprint is to have multiple arms you can really rely on and then it's up to your manager to know his guys well enough to know if they need set roles or if you can move them around like Miller. Chapman clearly hated pitching anything other than the 9th inning in a save situation and it nearly cost them the World Series. It was the only thing you could say Joe Maddon didn't do perfectly correct, but he didn't have a great read on Chapman or at least wasn't able to fully convince him that he was being used correctly.

 

3. As for the Jay draft pick...I'm not a fan. When you have a top 10 pick you have to nail it. I'm not an advocate for "drafting for need." Especially that high in the draft. There will always be a need for pitching. "You can never have too much pitching." But you need to get your pick right and drafting the guy with the highest ceiling and best chance of reaching that ceiling is the best way to do that. Collect assests and then consalidate them when the time is right. The argument that Benintendi would still be in the low minors for the Twins if we had drafted him is a huge indictment of the way the Twins do things. He is better than any Twins outfielder right now and if you're looking at things objectively the Twins would trade any player on their roster for him right now. He'd be the best player on the Twins right now. Buxton is the only guy you could argue would block Benintendi. But there's 3 outfield spots so that wouldn't be a problem. Rosario and Kepler are not even close to the type of player Benintendi is. He's going to hit in the top 5 of the best offense in baseball. As far as the draft goes, taking big time college bats is a safer bet than taking any arm. It's all really about the amount of risk you're willing to take and weighing ceiling verses floor. A dominant college reliever has a pretty reasonable floor, but their ceiling is also relatively limited and the likelihood that they reach that ceiling is much smaller than the likelihood that an elite college bat reaches his. Draft assests and trade from positions of strength to fill positions of need.

[TheLeviathan]

 

the only thing I'd add to this excellent post is....I don't think valuing the bullpen is a "new" currency.

I think smart teams have always recognized the importance of dominating the last 3 innings, and it's been mainly saber types pooh poohing the importance of bullpen.

 

And yet if you've every watched a Twins broadcast, you'll hear an old-school guy deride the very existence of bullpens.  They are for the weak who can't finish what they start after all.

 

I think the real truth is everyone sort of holds bullpens and their stats in a slight degree of contempt.  Mostly because it's easy to pin defeats on their poor performances.

[bird]

 

Basically, as long as they are in the minors, you can keep arguing that giving up on them is not ok. Basically, I can never win this argument, no matter how many fail or don't make it, because there will always be more minor league RPs. 

 

 

We wouldn't have to search hard to find a very very long list of Twins prospects who people on these threads stuck a fork in and then with great conviction railed about the team's latest blunder. Only to see the prospect have a  terrific career. Perkins. Hunter. Cuddyer. Who's next? Pressley? Park? Even Buxton by some.? Now Duffey? Or  next Burdi? Which of these guys will have the fork pulled out of them? The list goes on and on and on. It will always be here on TD.

 

So, putting it another way, basically, as long as they aren't thriving in the majors, you can keep arguing that it was a bad decision to draft them. Or blame the team because your timetable doesn't match up with reality. Basically, a person can never win an argument that these prospects represent promise because there's always some prospect who has actually already failed to justify their point. And that example will be brought up a billion times while every example like Cuddyer, Hunter, and Perkins is quickly forgotten.

[Mike Sixel]

deleted, I'm tired of this argument that goes in circles.

 

A decision can be both right, and frustrating / disappointing. 

Edited March 28, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[D.C Twins]

 

So, who did the Twins pass on that was drafted later -- besides Benintendi -- who is that lock of an Ace starting pitcher?

There is a lot of middle ground between #1 pitcher and relief pitcher... and a long way to go to know where 7-40 players settle out.

 

We drafted ultimately drafted a relief pitcher at #6 who turned out to be …… a relief pitcher. This simply cannot be considered a positive.  The aggressive positive spin is making me dizzy again. Even indirect comparisons to the current elite MLB relief pitchers is just ridiculous.

[D.C Twins]

 

Indians had Kluber and... a bunch of guys on the disabled list. The Indians had Trevor Mr. Drone Finger Bauer trying to not get blood on the baseball. The Indians had Josh Tomlin surpassing his normal heights and Andrew Miller who held it all together. If baseball wasn't watching the Royals win with a great pen and mediocre rotation... I hope it was watching the Indians do the same thing. Bullpen is the new currency.

The Yankees may not have needed Chapman and Miller but that lack of need got them a new shiny top ranked farm system. How happy would we be right now with Glaybar Torres if Terry Ryan had the guts to go get Chapman when he was available after the Dodgers walked away. The Yankees got him cheap with a questionable rotation and they already had Miller and Betences. It's all about value and the Yankees beat everyone. Gather ye assets where you may is what Shakespeare said.

Bullpen is the new currency. If I have a criticism of Falvey/Lavine thus far.... It would be the light attempt this off season at the building of our bullpen. FA starters sucked but FA relievers didn't. I would have liked to see them dive in. Gather ye assets where you may.

I know we are all disappointed that we lost a much needed starter and I'm not happy about it either but a talented Jay in the bullpen isn't a complete waste.

 

Ummm. While the Indian starters were not in the same league as the Cubs starters....they were waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than the Twins starters. We'll use WAR acknowledging that all stats have their limitations:

 

Kluber: 6.5

Carrasco: 3.6

Bauer: 3.0

Salazar: 2.9

Tomlin 1.6

 

Twins:

Santana: 3.8

Gibson:0.6

Duffey: -1.6

 

I'll stop there to avoid making TD readers nauseous.

 

Starting pitching is not either outstanding or not. There is a continuum. Starting pitching needs to be at least good/solid for an elite bullpen to matter.

 

The bullpen will not save the day without solid starting pitching. And there is still a loooooooooong way to go before we can claim even an above average bullpen

 

 

 

 Some of the injuries happened at the end of season and as pointed out by others, a bullpen can better cover for this in the playoffs.

[laloesch]

 

Ummm. While the Indian starters were not in the same league as the Cubs starters....they were waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than the Twins starters. We'll use WAR acknowledging that all stats have their limitations:

 

Kluber: 6.5

Carrasco: 3.6

Bauer: 3.0

Salazar: 2.9

Tomlin 1.6

 

Twins:

Santana: 3.8

Gibson:0.6

Duffey: -1.6

 

I'll stop there to avoid making TD readers nauseous.

 

Starting pitching is not either outstanding or not. There is a continuum. Starting pitching needs to be at least good/solid for an elite bullpen to matter.

 

The bullpen will not save the day without solid starting pitching. And there is still a loooooooooong way to go before we can claim even an above average bullpen

 

 

 

 Some of the injuries happened at the end of season and as pointed out by others, a bullpen can better cover for this in the playoffs.

 

Pretty telling.  I'd take the Indians rotation any day of the week and twice on Sunday if i had a choice.