Article: Report From The Fort: Decisions And Divides

[John Bonnes]

Pop quiz, hot shot: When the rubber meets the road, what makes everything move forward?

Answer: Friction.

 

For a team that was supposedly going through an overhaul, the Twins offseason has been one giant Kumbaya singing chorus. The new organizational leaders, CBO Derek Falvey and General Manager Thad Levine, have emphasized relationships, including the one with incumbent manager Paul Molitor. But the season is starting up, and that is when relationships get tested. It usually starts with roster cuts.All sides say that Molitor and the new front office are getting along very well. “It’s been very comfortable,’ says Molitor. His boss agrees. “[Molitor] and I have had really candid conversations about the roster all the way through spring training,” said Falvey this weekend. “I don’t think it will change. It gets harder as you get to 25, but I think we’ll be in a good place coming out of it.”

 

The truth is that it gets exponentially harder once you get to 25, because there are players who, if they don’t make the roster, are likely lost to the organization. If there is going to be a disagreement between the front office and the coaching staff, it’s going to happen this week with a few of the last roster spots.

 

The conflict is that the coach and front office have different priorities. Everyone understands that. “Paul’s job is to focus exclusively on what’s happening now and putting the best team out on the field,” said Falvey. “My job is to think a little more broadly about the long term path of the organization.“

 

Those diverging responsibilities differ most obviously in the last two spots in the bullpen.

 

For the last right-handed reliever, Alex Wimmers looks like the coaching staff’s preferred option over Michael Tonkin. Wimmers has been seeing time earlier and earlier and getting his manager’s praise. See how many compliments you can count in this next paragraph.

 

“He’s had a really good camp,” said Molitor after Wimmers last outing. “He did a nice job last year. I mean, there was a few walks, but it’s not like he misfires all the time. He throws all four pitches out of the bullpen, which make him unique. He doesn’t back down from people; I like that he has good presence. You don’t see a change in body language when a guy gets a hit or a walk or whatever. He just seems to be very steady out there. He’s had a lot of nice innings down here. We’ve seen all his pitches. The changeup has been a really good pitch for him this spring.”

 

Tonkin, meanwhile, has show the same thing this year that he’s shown the last couple of years. He has a tantalizing mid 90s fastball. It strikes people out, including 10 in the 11 innings he has pitched this spring. He also gives up home runs, including three this spring. Plus, this year he’s added to the debit side of the ledger; he’s walked six guys in those 11 innings.

 

However, Michael Tonkin is out of options, meaning that if he doesn’t make the 25-man roster, he would need to be offered free-of-charge to all 29 other teams. If anyone can find a place for him on their 25-man roster, they get him. And you can bet that the front office, confronted with an organization that has struggled to find pitching for the last six years, would like to keep that arm around and see if they could have a chance to tap his potential. That’s harder to do when he’s playing for the Pirates.

 

The same question applies to the last spot in the bullpen, or the “swingman” who is often used to throw several innings when a starter is knocked out of a game early. Nick Tepesch has been getting starts in front of Justin Haley for the last couple games. For that matter, the Twins have had Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios (already demoted) and Adalberto Mejia competing for the fifth spot in the rotation, and any of them would make a good cleanup option, too.

 

But Justin Haley is a Rule 5 pick, and if the Twins don’t keep him on the 25-man roster (or disabled list) for the entirety of the 2017 season, he’ll need to be offered back to the Red Sox. Haley hasn’t pitched particularly well in camp, as his 6.08 ERA suggests. But in an organization starved for pitching, adding a 25-year-old who has struck out almost a guy per inning in spring training is a good idea. Especially if his role is mostly to throw strikes in games that are already lost.

 

There are other possible challenges, though they appear less significant. If ByungHo Park makes the roster as the starting designated hitter and Chris Gimenez makes the roster as the backup catcher, both must be added to the 40-man roster. One of those spots seems straight-forward: Glen Perkins appears to be a likely candidate for the 60 day DL, which opens a spot.

 

But the other means dropping someone. That doesn’t appear to be a huge issue. “I think we’re fine,” said Molitor regarding finding room on the 40-man.

There surely have been tests outside the public’s view between the front office and their manager this offseason, but cementing a 25-man roster raises the ante.

 

For his part, Falvey doesn’t anticipate a lot of drama. “I’ve only been around groups that make [these decisions] together. And I’d like to do that with Paul and with Thad and with our group,” he said. “Ultimately, I’m responsible for our baseball operations, so that [decisionmaker] will be me, but I’m confident we’ll all get to a place where we feel good about the outcome with the 25-man [roster] at the end.”

 

They may all feel good. But the way forward likely involves a little friction.

 

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[Shaitan]

Tonkin hasn't done anything to earn it, but I'd keep him on the 25 until May. Wimmers is then available when the inevitable release or injury happens in the pen. 

 

Does Wimmers have the arm for a long reliever?

[Respy]

 

Does Wimmers have the arm for a long reliever?

 

He started as recently as 2015, and averaged over an inning per relief appearance at AAA.  Should be fine as a long reliever, but then I'm not sure why we would have both Wimmers and Haley on the 25-man roster.

[Thrylos]

 

However, Michael Tonkin is out of options, meaning that if he doesn’t make the 25-man roster, he would need to be offered free-of-charge to all 29 other teams.
 

 

Actually this is not quite correct.  There is a waiver fee that is smaller than the Rule 5 fee but larger than the average minor leaguer salary.   When someone is traded for "cash considerations" usually the amount is higher than the waiver fee.

[big dog]

I wonder how Falvey feels about DanSan...

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

It's in the Minnesota sports culture to fret too much over losing borderline players (see Oswlado Arcia). The Twins were burned by David Ortiz so now the fans are paralyzed with fear it will happen again. The Twins lost 103 games last year, roster fluidity should be encouraged.

[jud6312]

How so many pieces from a 103-loss team are back just befuddles me - and supplemented only by a Saber darling catcher and a bunch of "character" guys.

 

Me thinks it's gonna be a REALLY long season.

[Thrylos]

 

Pop quiz, hot shot: When the rubber meets the road, what makes everything move forward?
Answer: Friction.

 

Partially correct.  Full answer here.

[Shaitan]

 

He started as recently as 2015, and averaged over an inning per relief appearance at AAA.  Should be fine as a long reliever, but then I'm not sure why we would have both Wimmers and Haley on the 25-man roster.

 

Agree there's no need for 2 long relievers (well, maybe with this staff), but I see zero reason to keep Haley in MLB. Maybe in a trade so they can send him to Rochester.

[Deduno Abides]

If management thinks Wimmers is better than Tonkin, then it should buck up and prepare to accept the huge regret that could happen if someone else figures out a way to get 0.5 WAR out of him. That said, change for the sake of "trying something else" often leads to worse outcomes and Wimmers hasn't really ever shown anything good other than during small samples. Spring training is the ultimate small sample.

 

 

Either way, you have to hope neither is on the team next year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If management thinks Wimmers is better than Tonkin, then it should buck up and prepare to accept the huge regret that could happen if someone else figures out a way to get 0.5 WAR out of him. That said, change for the sake of "trying something else" often leads to worse outcomes and Wimmers hasn't really ever shown anything good other than during small samples. Spring training is the ultimate small sample.

Either way, you have to hope neither is on the team next year.

I now think it's Tonkin. Wimmers can still be optioned and the wonder twins have played it close to the vest by not letting go of virtually any of the pitchers in the organization.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I am not a scout. I am just a baseball fan.

Would someone please help me understand why Justin Haley is potentially an important part of our future?

I'm serious here. If he had his exact history with the Twins would anyone think he was going to get picked up if we sent him down? (I know he would go back to Boston) Would anybody get upset about it?

I see nothing in his stats that suggest a soon-to-blossom 26 yo MLB starter.

 

Looking for any insight other than, "He must stay on the team because we selected him in the Rule 5 draft". Thank you in advance.

[Respy]

 

Looking for any insight other than, "He must stay on the team because we selected him in the Rule 5 draft". Thank you in advance.

 

I don't think they selected him with the intention of putting him in the rotation this April.  He put up solid numbers in AA/AAA last year, and had a phenomenal appearance at winter ball (one run in 23 2/3 innings) right before the Rule 5 draft. Before Wimmers came into the discussion, I would assume that Haley was viewed as the top option in long relief, gave some rotation depth, and could provide some options for 2018+ if he had a good 2017 in the bullpen.  He might still not make the team, but the Rule 5 draft is fairly low-risk (minus the measly $25,000 return fee if he goes back to the Red Sox).

 

Regarding your question on his history, he's got a pitcher's build with decent stats and durability, with potential to be bottom-of-the rotation starter.  His scouting report repeats the words "flashes" and "at times" and seems to indicate that he could be a decent pitcher if he figured out how to be more consistent. This for a Twins team that had a terrible pitching staff next year.  I wouldn't have made the Rule 5 pick of Haley myself, but it makes enough sense.

[DocBauer]

I have to agree with Goat. I don't see any need to "save face" with letting Haley go just because he was the initial rule 5 pick by the new FO. He just hasn't pitched all that well, nor as well as I hoped or even expected. Wimmers was a SP in college and most of his milb career. At this point, he could easily be the long man you need and you could keep Tonkin and hope the BB go down. Not saying it matters in the long run, because I'm not sure it does.

 

The truth is Chargois is simply better, but had a bad spring. Would anyone be surprised to see him up in a month and taking over a key spot? Reed and Hildenberger the same, really. Either or both could be ready very soon.

 

I still like Duffey as a starter. Again, he throws 4 pitches. His problem last season was FB location, reported by himself and backed up by the coaches,and he has looked very good most of the spring. Some kind of change could absolutely help, as any kind of decent pitch offering could help anyone, but it still comes down to FB command. But if the variations of his 2 FB and 2 different curves aren't enough, he could still be moved to the pen where he would/should have more than enough to be solid to very good.

 

Despite being un-enthusiastic about the pen overall to begin the season, I'm not bent out of shape because I know the options available, and how quickly things can change a mere month in to the season. And I believe they will. (And we're not even talking about Jay or Melotakis at this point).

 

In a perverse way, I like the rotation more. Santana looks good. Gibson looks good. Still mixed on Santiago..but...his finish last season and overall ST has been OK, and I'm hoping for a "tradeable " performance from him. I know many are down on Hughes, but I didn't expect to see what we have seen from him thus far. And I'm not joking here. He's been working on his change, throwing strikes, getting ahead of hitters...and then he throws a clunker! His next start, he throws another clunker in the very first inning! But then settles down to pitch 5 more innings of 1 run ball. We just don't know what we have here yet, but I am more than willing to give him a month to ramp up, feel his way back, build up velocity, and see what he can do. Still believe in Duffey if he actually has his FB command back. I believe he has earned his shot. But I am so excited to have Berrios and Mejia waiting in the wings for their opportunity. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see both with 15-20 starts for the Twins this year.

 

Still want Vargas to get his shot and wouldn't be surprised if he rakes at AAA. The way he was playing, Adrianza might have forced DanSan off the roster. For now, he's safe. But I suspect his leash is very short and he could be done in about 30 days tops. (Though I'd re-sign him to Rochester if he goes unclaimed).

[Shaitan]

Vargas is either going to rake in AAA (because it's his 5th time there) or do the opposite out of exhaustion at the up/down, like Arcia. 

 

(That's the only Arcia comparison I'll make. I think one of Vargas' strengths is that he adjusts to situations, while Arcia's weakness is exactly that.)

 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Vargas is either going to rake in AAA (because it's his 5th time there) or do the opposite out of exhaustion at the up/down, like Arcia. 

 

(That's the only Arcia comparison I'll make. I think one of Vargas' strengths is that he adjusts to situations, while Arcia's weakness is exactly that.)

 

Arcia's problems had nothing to do with being sent down/up. The dude is a thick-skulled knucklehead who stubbornly believes that the only plate approach that matters is swinging hard enough at every pitch to throw his back out every year. He seems like a good guy and teammate, but proved to be incapable of learning the finer points of the game required to be successful in the majors.

 

Vargas isn't at all like that, I think he just doesn't have the requisite contact skills for his role. He has a decent plate approach and will draw walks when his pitches aren't there, which is good. But he's a bit of a guesser and a mistake hitter. He only hit .200/.292/.400/.692 with a 35% strikeout rate in 41 games after the all star break last year. That's brutal production out of your designated hitter.

 

Vargas is going to get extended run in Minnesota this year so starting in AAA shouldn't be a big deal. There will be plenty of at-bats to go around between Mauer, Park, and Vargas for the DH/1B roles. But for now he hasn't done enough to displace Mauer or beat out Park for the everyday job.

[AZTwin]

In case anyone is wondering here is how the twins original rule 5 pick is doing.

 

http://eastvillagetimes.com/2017/03/padres-rule-5-draftees-progressing-through-spring-training/

 

TLDR: high upside, should stick all year, command is a question mark

[HitInAPinch]

I would have no consternation in the Twins dropping Tonkin.  95mph fastball is all he really has.  One last time to look at guys like Wimmer, then really start rebuilding next year.  Castro was a nice/needed start.

 

I also have no consternation with any Rule 5 or late season FA pickup.  Spot holders, at best.  Spring Training fodder, at worst. 

 

I'm waiting to see next years plan from Flavey and Levine.

 

Anyway, I think these Twins are somewhere between the 2015 / 2016 versions.  The difference will be:

Terry Ryan would view that as a success / Flavey will view that as a first step.

[Han Joelo]

There's always been too much of a Gulf with Tonkin between his fastball's speed, and how effective it actually is.  Anyway, I'd like to see Wimmers get the call right now.  It may be SSS, but maybe he has the hot hand right now.  And, maybe, like many former first round pick starting pitchers, after years of trying to start, injuries, and other vagaries of life, Wimmers is about to blossom into a BP weapon.

 

I wish the best for Tonkin, he'd get claimed probably.  Hopefully he puts it together and becomes a reliable MLB guy for someone.  

 

Reading between the lines, seems like Molitor likes him, so I bet Falvey let's him win this one.  It will go in his personnel file "Was given sufficient resources?" Check.

[iTwins]

At a certain point, the want to wait for a guy to "figure it out" has to expire. Tonkin has had his shots - and we've seen the lackluster results. He needed to be lights out this spring to make the roster. He hasn't been, all while Wimmers has looked solid. That one should be cut and dry. Wimmers in, Tonkin out. 

 

Haley hasn't done enough to earn a roster spot. I feel like the old regime would cling to his "#1 pick in the rule 5" status as an excuse to force him onto the 25 man out of spring. I'm hoping the new bosses don't allow such things cloud their judgement. 

[zenser]

I would have no issues if they let Tonkin go.  I have said that in the past.  However, keeping him as the long man for a little while doesn't really do him any good.  He isn't a long man.  If they keep him, I would want to see him in a role where he can pitch one inning, but his place on the team is going to be the long man.  That being said, I think Tonkin goes and Wimmer stays.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Keep Tonkin, keep Wimmers, keep Haley, fire them all... these are not the decisions that rile me up. None of those players are obviously superior to the others. I'll rely on Falvey and Levine to know more about baseball than me and make the correct decision.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Agree there's no need for 2 long relievers (well, maybe with this staff), but I see zero reason to keep Haley in MLB. Maybe in a trade so they can send him to Rochester.

 

Agreed. You have to weigh wanting to keep him and being able to use the roster spot for the whole year. Having a guy who can only be used in long relief when you have a starting staff with as much uncertainty as the Twins have this year is tough. Hard to see them being able to realistically keep him all year if he's getting shelled and can only do long relief. Work out a trade if you like him.

[mikelink45]

I would like to believe the Twins will start cutting on the balance of talent expressed and future potential and not just keep a guy like Haley because we invested what in baseball is a pittance for rule 5. 

Tonkin is in a rut and I cannot see change coming.  I was critical with how long it took to bring him up and try him out, now I might be critical of a decision to wait too long.  If Molitor likes WImmers let him be the player in the bullpen.  We have Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Jay...in the minors, its a good time to start auditions.  Get rid of Haley and Tonkin and use this position for the future and hopefully add Breslow to the cuts too. 

I would like to see Duffey, Mejia, and Berrios rotate starts and relief and see if we can get one to step up and better yet - all three. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Keep Tonkin, keep Wimmers, keep Haley, fire them all... these are not the decisions that rile me up. None of those players are obviously superior to the others. I'll rely on Falvey and Levine to know more about baseball than me and make the correct decision.

That's fair, although I think there are some combo's here that would be cause to question them.  Keeping both Wimmers and Haley would be one of those -- that's just too much of a roster investment in low-upside mop-up work for my tastes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's fair, although I think there are some combo's here that would be cause to question them.  Keeping both Wimmers and Haley would be one of those -- that's just too much of a roster investment in low-upside mop-up work for my tastes.

I have a slight preference for Tonkin for the reason you listed but ultimately, Tonkin hasn't brought the goods. At this point, I'm willing to concede superior knowledge and experience to Falvey and Levine regarding his ability to step forward and become a quality reliever.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have a slight preference for Tonkin for the reason you listed but ultimately, Tonkin hasn't brought the goods. At this point, I'm willing to concede superior knowledge and experience to Falvey and Levine regarding his ability to step forward and become a quality reliever.

No doubt. I don't have any great affinity for Tonkin anymore, and I am fine if the team wants to cut him now.

 

I just don't want to see him replaced with a redundant, low-upside mop-up guy. That would lead me to question the new FO, not about Tonkin, but about an obviously substandard allocation of roster spots. This team shouldn't be trotting out Haley AND Wimmers in its opening day bullpen, regardless of how they feel about Tonkin.

Edited March 28, 2017 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wimmers can be autocorrected to Winners, so I guess that is a point in his favor.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Keep Tonkin, keep Wimmers, keep Haley, fire them all... these are not the decisions that rile me up. None of those players are obviously superior to the others. I'll rely on Falvey and Levine to know more about baseball than me and make the correct decision.

if these guys can't stand out on the worst pitching staff in baseball why bother?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

No doubt. I don't have any great affinity for Tonkin anymore, and I am fine if the team wants to cut him now.

 

I just don't want to see him replaced with a redundant, low-upside mop-up guy. That would lead me to question the new FO, not about Tonkin, but about an obviously substandard allocation of roster spots. This team shouldn't be trotting out Haley AND Wimmers in its opening day bullpen, regardless of how they feel about Tonkin.

agreed, but I can see a scenario where Haley and Wimmers are both in long relief based on how Falvine feels about the roatation. Maybe not opening day, but short starts and taxed bullpen with no optionable pitchers loom on the horizon. Edited March 28, 2017 by Sconnie