Article: Report From The Fort: Pitching Focus

[MN_ExPat]

 

All Chargois had to do to make the team was not be awful this spring, and he couldn't do that. I probably would've still put him on the opening day roster anyway, but Chargois is the person who should be blamed here.

 

Hey Blue... just to let you know, not bashing your opinion here.

 

But I did want to use this to illustrate a point.  Why are we (myself included) so quick to place "blame" on a player.   Did he commit some egregious crime against humanity?   Baseball is an exceptionally tough game even at the lowest levels and best days. 

 

Did Shaggy do well this spring?   No, it is safe to say he struggled.  But we don't know what is going on in his head or really much of what the coaches are telling him or asking him to do.  I'm not defending his performance this spring, it could have been better (at least to the fan's perspective), but to say a player is to "blame" is... well it's wrong.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Unless Duffey somehow developed a third pitch this offseason, we should shut the door on his starting career.

 

I'm not ready to shut that door personally.  We saw in yesterday's Santana thread that Santana gets by on two pitches.  Now you may be right eventually about Duffey, but given the success he had as a starter in 2015, I have to think he warrants another shot starting (unless of course he's front and center saying put me in the pen)...

 

My bigger concern on Chargois is if a guy like Boshers makes it. He's been bad this spring, so I don't think you necessarily reward that with a roster spot, but the final configuration of the pen is what I'll be watching (that and how short the leash is for a few guys).

[nicksaviking]

I do think a young player should have to beat out an older/established player. That just mirrors the reality of most other industries. This isn't "rigged".

I don't necessarily disagree with this paragraph or your post in total, but once again using Phil Hughes as an example, he's been bad for two years, is now on the wrong side of 30 and has seen a large drop in velocity. History would surely show there is much less chance of him bouncing back than there is of a prospect being successful.

 

Now the front office may have other interests than the fans such as managing a bad contract, but he still is getting every benefit of the doubt over the young guys due to nothing that he has done on the field. Baseball isn't like other industries, we know that due to physical limitations caused be age and repeated injuries that youth is and should be a huge advantage but it's not treated that way.

 

Not just with the Twins, I'm not singling them out.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

My old mantra - we need a coaching staff that knows how to get players over the hump from great in the minors to at least productive in the Majors.  We are wasting talent and the repetition of these events is a solid condemnation of the process.  I also have a difficult time seeing Santiago going as the MLB starter and the two promising young pitchers going AAA and AA games.  We know Santiago.  He can stretch out versus the MIBL players as well as MLB.   What does Paul have to see?  Shouldn't he want to see the progress and potential of the young pitchers?

 

Chargois does not bother me when I look at his performance, but I have to question the pitching coach and staff who did not help him progress during the ST season when players are supposed to be learning, developing...

 

I was on the record for not keeping Santiago to be clear.  But the May injury pretty much proved the front office right there. There are two vets in the rotation (Santiago and Hughes) that are not bets for long term success.  One will likely be serviceable... Maybe both will be, but one will likely fail.  The problem is knowing which one. That part isn't easy. You jettison them both now, and there's a real problem if/when the Duffey/Berrios/Mejia contigent struggles... which they will.  So honestly, I can kind of understand it.  If we are lucky, Santiago holds down a spot all year long and big steps forward by Gibson suddenly make the rotation serviceable.  Otherwise, he gets flipped in July and replaced with one of those guys once the season is over or just gets released. 

[mikelink45]

 

I was on the record for not keeping Santiago to be clear.  But the May injury pretty much proved the front office right there. There are two vets in the rotation (Santiago and Hughes) that are not bets for long term success.  One will likely be serviceable... Maybe both will be, but one will likely fail.  The problem is knowing which one. That part isn't easy. You jettison them both now, and there's a real problem if/when the Duffey/Berrios/Mejia contigent struggles... which they will.  So honestly, I can kind of understand it.  If we are lucky, Santiago holds down a spot all year long and big steps forward by Gibson suddenly make the rotation serviceable.  Otherwise, he gets flipped in July and replaced with one of those guys once the season is over or just gets released. 

My comment does not diminish what they want from Santiago, to me it is a question of which pitchers are more important to perform in front of the eyes of management, a vet they know or young players that are important for the future.  Do not forget that Gibson is now a veteran.  In both age and years of service he is not a young prospect any more.  He is now beginning his fifth year in the rotation 32 - 38 with a 4.59 ERA at age 29 with an accumulated WAR of 5. 

[drjim]

 

I don't necessarily disagree with this paragraph or your post in total, but once again using Phil Hughes as an example, he's been bad for two years, is now on the wrong side of 30 and has seen a large drop in velocity. History would surely show there is much less chance of him bouncing back than there is of a prospect being successful.

Now the front office may have other interests than the fans such as managing a bad contract, but he still is getting every benefit of the doubt over the young guys due to nothing that he has done on the field. Baseball isn't like other industries, we know that due to physical limitations caused be age and repeated injuries that youth is and should be a huge advantage but it's not treated that way.

Not just with the Twins, I'm not singling them out.

 

I see your point on Hughes - he does have the benefit of being a veteran and having a guaranteed contract. He is coming back from a very serious injury, so they are probably not counting spring as much as they would with others.

 

He'll have by far the shortest leash of the 4 veterans, maybe only 3-4 starts. If he can't perform he'll go on the DL or get bounced to the long man, and one of the young guys will get their chance.

[Thrylos]

 

I guess Ryan Pressly will be the next Twin failed starter turned dominant reliever

 

Pressly made zero starts with the Twins organization in any level.  Was turned into a reliever by Boston half way into 2012.

[Thrylos]

 

Duffey has an xFIP- for his career. There aren't very many pitchers 25 or under in 2016 with a better career xFIP-. They can't give up on that.

 

a. Duffey is 26+ years old. 

b. Duffey's career xFIP is 3.82

c. Duffey's xFIP is Identical to Nolasco's career xFIP (I have not seen many tears about letting Nolasco go last season)

d. At least the following pitchers Duffey's age and younger have lower xFIP:  Thor, Nola, Stroman, McCullers, Cole, Matz, Wood, Martinez, Jon Gray, Wheeler, Joe Ross, Erlin, Ray, Gausman, Velasquez

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

This is disappointing as I was hoping that Shaggy could slide into the closer's role by midsummer. How much was the demotion influenced by his spring training numbers being down? The importance of spring training numbers has always been mysterious.

 

I agree numbers are overrated in springtime but stuff isn't. Don't know this for sure but perhaps the Twins saw something in his delivery and approach that needed work. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Let's put the blame where it belongs. Monitor's family and Pohlad's family are friends. I would hate to see at midseason the FO wants to fire Paul and Paul tells Him Pohlad's they have not provided the pitching help needed. So the new FO either quits or is forced to trade prospects for immediate help, that would be the disaster.

 

There is absolutely no way the Front Office will quit or this scenario will play out. I hate the Pohlads more than almost anyone I know but they've always been hands off owners. They aren't Steinbrenner or Jerry Jones. Unless this front office has legal issues, it has three years minimum to turn things around. The Twins are loyal.

 

The most I could see is the Pohlads forcing the front office to keep Molitor on an extra year past when they want to. But even that seems way too interfering for their ownership style.

[ThejacKmp]

 

What does Paul have to see?  Shouldn't he want to see the progress and potential of the young pitchers?

 

I know hating Molitor is fashionable on TD but there's not a chance in hell he's the one making these choices. He's a voice in the room but the power structure for MLB franchises is pretty clear (exception being Mike Scioscia in Anaheim).

 

The FO is making these calls. If we hate them, we should blame the right people. A year ago people would have been all over TR for this but now, they feel like they need to give the FO a chance but also want to vent - Molitor bears the brunt of that.

[Mike Sixel]

There was recently an article on ESPN that teams that commit to rebuilding get better faster than teams that just keep trying to stay mediocre. Also, attendance is not helped by not rebuilding.

[drjim]

There was recently an article on ESPN that teams that commit to rebuilding get better faster than teams that just keep trying to stay mediocre. Also, attendance is not helped by not rebuilding.

Out of curiosity how did they define "committing to rebuilding"? Seems that would be nebulous enough to finesse the data to come up with whatever conclusion you want.

[jorgenswest]

a. Duffey is 26+ years old. 

b. Duffey's career xFIP is 3.82

c. Duffey's xFIP is Identical to Nolasco's career xFIP (I have not seen many tears about letting Nolasco go last season)

d. At least the following pitchers Duffey's age and younger have lower xFIP:  Thor, Nola, Stroman, McCullers, Cole, Matz, Wood, Martinez, Jon Gray, Wheeler, Joe Ross, Erlin, Ray, Gausman, Velasquez

I would take a Nolasco at 26 through his prime. I wouldn't give up on a career xFIP- of 91 through age 25. I certainly wouldn't shut down his starting career. If the Twins front office believes his ERA represents his true ability better than his peripherals I would be very disappointed.

[joey emerson]

high upside revilers like Burdi, Chargois, Jay, Melotakis, Reed, Rosario all in double and triple im not to worried about the pen to much cause the had so mant options they can call up and go with 

[The Wise One]

 

Pressly made zero starts with the Twins organization in any level.  Was turned into a reliever by Boston half way into 2012.

Kirbydome  on a post on another thread commented on failed starters as relievers. I am aware of Ryan's past.

 

[jimbo92107]

 

Just my opinion, but Duffy will never be a successful big league starter. He doesn't have the pitches. He might be a very good reliever, though. Move him there now.

The counter argument is Duffey's control of his curve. If a guy can throw curves as well as Duffey, to me that means he understands the fundamentals of arm slots, which means he should be able to spot his other pitches with the same concepts as spotting his curves. Even if his heater never gets above 92, with good control a guy like Duffey can master the art of pitching, which is about disrupting the batter's timing and fooling his eye. 

 

The league has plenty of room for a starter whose game revolves around a great curve ball. Could be that Duffey's just waiting for a catcher that knows how to take advantage of his stuff. 

[sploorp]

 

Much more likely they keep Haley as the long man for all the reasons you mention. It will be Mejia or Duffey in the 5 spot and the other starting in AAA.

I'm hoping that if Hughes doesn't improve his velocity soon, he's the one that moves to the bullpen with Hughes and Mejia both going north as part of the rotation.

[drjim]

 

I'm hoping that if Hughes doesn't improve his velocity soon, he's the one that moves to the bullpen with Hughes and Mejia both going north as part of the rotation.

 

Hughes will get 3-4 starts in the bigs to start the year, but I don't think his leash will that long. If his velo doesn't recover he'll get bounced to the bullpen or the DL. But he is going to get a handful of starts.