Article: Can Hector Santiago Elevate and Dominate?

[gil4]

 

Wow! Over 1300 words on why we can have at least some optimism regarding Santiago and you get no positive comments at all. I guess the lines:

 

But can we be optimistic about Santiago delivering a solid season? Something in line with his career averages prior to last year? I think so, yet most Twins fans are trying to find ways to run him out of town.

 

were not changing any minds at all. Everyone still wants to run him out of town!

One of the comments even refers to Santiago's age (he's younger than Gibson).

Here are a few things I would not put money on regarding Santiago in 2017:

> being an All-Star pitcher

> being below league average.

> being worse than Gibson

 

I think the article showed exactly why there is room for optimism. No idea how all the optimism around ESan having another really strong year, Hughes coming back from surgery and performing well, Duffey and Gibson ignoring last year and recreating their 2015 seasons and Berrios and Mejia pitching well in MLB ran out when it got to Santiago.

 

Guess people just don't like him.

I agree with you - a lot of work went into the article and it does make a pretty good case.  I had a hard time getting past one word in the title:  Dominate.

 

That is not a word that comes to mind with Santiago, and the article itself really doesn't argue that he can.  If he can keep his ERA around 4 and stay in the rotation all years, I would consider that success.  I think he can do that.  Many around here would consider that overly optimistic. I can live with that.

 

That's not dominance.  Johan dominated.  Liriano dominated that one year before he hurt his elbow.  I almost didn't read the article because I saw the title and answered "Hell, no.  Next question."

[Willihammer]

Well Hughes is a righty. And that'll play better at TF, as it suppresses left handed hitters' power.

And Hughes is coming from a park that inflates LH power (New Yankees Stadium) vs Santiago who is coming from a park that suppresses RH home runs. Edited March 24, 2017 by Willihammer

[puckstopper1]

 

He'll get away with 19 pitches up there then on the 20th one is cranked for a double. "That's why you gotta keep the ball down!"

Immediately followed by "he just dropped the head of the bat...."  on a pitch low in the strike zone that got launched into the 2nd deck.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't have the link, but I have the SI (2017 MLB Preview) in front of me. Here's what "a rival scout" wrote:

 

"They [Twins] gave Jason Castro a lot of money to be their front-line guy. They had a good defensive catcher in Kurt Suzuki and let him walk. I would rather have Suzuki than Castro..."

 

 

Same scout said: Twins should have definitely moved Dozier (but doesn't say for what or whom); Sano is not good at third; Buxton needs to bunt; and - while admitting Rosario and Kepler both have strong arms - neither are offensive players, which is what teams need from their corner outfielders. 

 

Ha, please let that be a scout for the White Sox!

 

It's a real shame that rival scout's team couldn't muster $1.5M to match the Braves offer to gain the rights to Kurt Suzuki.

[Deduno Abides]

I'm buying into Santiago being an effective, dare I say, above average starter for this team. If they don't tweak his mechanics too much, and let him pitch "effectively wild" I think he can outperform his FIP once again.

 

I guess it depends on how bad his FIP is.

[Old Twins Cap]

I guess Twins Daily readers didn't get the memo about spring being the optimist season in regard to baseball. 

 

Nice article my friend, a well-researched counter narrative, deserving of praise for using stats as a form of jujitsu against the conformity of saber-geeks.  

 

I could literally hear thuds from heads hitting basement cielings as I drove through the northern suburbs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

When he played for the Angels, there was no discernible difference in Santiago's HR allowed at home versus on the road.

 

That angle doesn't really hold up under scrutiny.

[Vanimal46]

 

Same scout said: Twins should have definitely moved Dozier (but doesn't say for what or whom); Sano is not good at third; Buxton needs to bunt; and - while admitting Rosario and Kepler both have strong arms - neither are offensive players, which is what teams need from their corner outfielders. 

 

This scout lost me at Buxton needs to bunt. #NeverBunt

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This scout lost me at Buxton needs to bunt. #NeverBunt

Buxton should definitely bunt... if defenses give him the bunt for a base hit.

 

That applies to almost everyone in baseball.

 

A player should rarely step to the plate with a bunt in mind, though.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Ha, please let that be a scout for the White Sox!

 

It's a real shame that rival scout's team couldn't muster $1.5M to match the Braves offer to gain the rights to Kurt Suzuki.

Maybe the rival scout works for the Braves... They're seemingly the only ones to believe strongly enough in Suzuki to go and get him.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Buxton should definitely bunt... if defenses give him the bunt for a base hit.

 

That applies to almost everyone in baseball.

 

A player should rarely step to the plate with a bunt in mind, though.

I disagree with the word "rarely." Maybe "infrequently." would be better.

 

i know most players don't think bunt, but in some cases it can be a very effective tool. If the corner infielders are playing back to avoid the extra-base hit, depending on who's following, a bunt for a base hit down the line could be very effective.

 

The best true hitters IMHO make use of at least the threat of a bunt, so as to draw corner infielders in so they can hit hit the ball over their head. It's all about using the whole field – not only horizontally, but distance-wise as well.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I disagree with the word "rarely." Maybe "infrequently." would be better.

 

i know most players don't think bunt, but in some cases it can be a very effective tool. If the corner infielders are playing back to avoid the extra-base hit, depending on who's following, a bunt for a base hit down the line could be very effective.

 

The best true hitters IMHO make use of at least the threat of a bunt, so as to draw corner infielders in so they can hit hit the ball over their head. It's all about using the whole field – not only horizontally, but distance-wise as well.

 

IMO, the best true hitters hit the ball hard, with elevation, and aren't worried about faking the bunt. Or even trying one.

[Linus]

Chili Davis to Kirby: "Bunt my ass, hit it out of here and let's go home"

[Blackjack]

 

IMO, the best true hitters hit the ball hard, with elevation, and aren't worried about faking the bunt. Or even trying one.

I think someone with Buxton's speed should bunt occasionally just to keep the fielders honest, playing in a few steps to guard against that 'occasional bunt.

 

Another reason to bunt would be so that the player knows how to do it when they're asked to move a runner over, they're not thinking 'when was the last time I bunted' or 'how do I do this'??

[USAFChief]

Nice work, Tom.

[MN_ExPat]

 

He'll get away with 19 pitches up there then on the 20th one is cranked for a double. "That's why you gotta keep the ball down!"

True... But have you ever tried to hit a high fastball (above the hands or letters)?   It usually doesn't end well.   Yes, number 20 will usually get hit on the screws, but that is more likely because the pitch comes in lower around the belt than because the hitter has learned to tomahawk a high one.

[gil4]

 

This scout lost me at Buxton needs to bunt. #NeverBunt

Lost me at "They had a good defensive catcher in Kurt Suzuki and let him walk"  and just read the rest for laughs.  I don't think there's a cool hashtag for that, though.  

 

My son is a senior in HS and is probably the best bunter on the team and is one of the two fasted kids.  He didn't get either of those from me - I coached kids baseball for about 12 years (3 sons) and I never gave the bunt sign in all that time.  We practiced it some, but it as never a priority.  I also had more of a Hrbek build, with wheels to match, so speed genes cam from mom.

 

I will say bunting came in handy for my son earlier this year.  He hurt his back swinging a bat and missed a couple of games.  His first game back he could do everything but swing, so the coach had him play the field and used the DH for him. (In HS, the DH can hit for any position.)  In the 4th inning, the DH got on and coach sent my son in to run (DH now gone). (The next batter hit a  line drive with my son running - easy DP)

   We got to the bottom of the 7th (7 inning game) down 9-2 against a team we should beat. My son leads off with a bunt hit and comes around to score.  A couple of batters later, they change pitcher to a guy who throws BP.  My son gets up again with the tying run on 2nd and tells the coach he was going to try to swing. The 3B was in expecting a bunt, but he was able to slap a roller past him that the SS just got to.  The throw was late and shorthopped the 1B, so the runner from 2nd kept going and just beat the throw to the plate.  My son steals second, then steals third.  The throw to third bounced and deflected away.  The SS got to it pretty quickly, so there was a play at the plate, but my son beat throw - game over. 

   The coach afterwards told the team "You screwed up my post-game speech with that comeback, but I'm going to give it anyway because you never should have been down 9-2 to those guys."  It was still worth sitting through the first 6-1/2 innings to get to that

 

I still want to get the coach one of the t-shirts I saw on the #neverbunt feed: 

Make America Rake Again

#NeverBunt

 

(He likes to give away outs.)

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I think someone with Buxton's speed should bunt occasionally just to keep the fielders honest, playing in a few steps to guard against that 'occasional bunt.

 

Another reason to bunt would be so that the player knows how to do it when they're asked to move a runner over, they're not thinking 'when was the last time I bunted' or 'how do I do this'??

Good hitters shouldn't be moving runners over, ever.

If Buxton is such a crappy hitter that he's being asked to move runners over, then we have bigger problems than his bunting ability.

[sploorp]

 

I'm hard to giddy.

I'm the exact opposite, I guess you could call me giddy happy.

[Penthang]

My hope is that Santiago has a career first half and then they flip him for a decent prospect…not sign him to a 5 year deal!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe Santiago is ahead of the curve.

 

There was another good article in the Times about how Tampa Bay pitchers work high in the strike zone.

 

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/03/24/sports/baseball/tampa-bay-rays-pitching.html

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tampa-bays-cult-of-the-high-fastball/

 

There is a certain logic to it. As more batters go with the upper cut swing, the high heater gets harder to reach."Mike Trout can hit a shin-high fastball 450 feet."

 

Check it out.