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Article: Report From The Fort: Squeeze Play


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Each spring training, teams reach a point when the supply/demand ratio regarding pitchers’ innings is reversed. That time has come.

 

Early on, pitch counts for the starters are kept low, leaving lots of innings in which to try out the Double-A prospect or the non-roster invitee. But eventually starters need to be stretched to 75 or 90 pitches, and managers want to see those final 20 pitches against major league competition, not in the bullpen.Squeezing The Rotation

That squeeze has started and yesterday we saw its first victim when Ryan Vogelsong was granted his release following a conversation with the Twins. There simply is no longer room for the 8th or 9th rotation candidate to throw 75 pitches. “We felt that right now we had a few people in front of him in terms of that rotation situation,” said Twins manager Paul Molitor. Of course, he’s right.

 

Games are grouped in sets of five, since the starting pitchers are on a five-day rotation. One game goes to each Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson. With Ervin Santana returning this week, that leaves only two games available in this set, and Tyler Duffey, Adalberto Mejia and Justin Haley have youth, performance and a Rule 5 decision on their side.

 

Having three Twins pitchers in the WBC has been a blessing and a curse for pitchers competing for a rotation spot. On the one hand, it probably gave Haley, Vogelsong, Duffey and Mejia a few starts they might not have had the past couple of weeks. Puerto Rico’s semifinal win bought a little more time, as it delays Jose Berrios and Hector Santiago rejoining the team.

 

But on the other hand, when the WBC guys return, the Twins are going to want to give them innings versus major league competition. That’s important because to free up some innings, some teams will opt to have an established starter throw a game against a AAA team rather than a spring training game.

 

That doesn’t seem like the best option for the worst rotation in MLB last year. Plus, the Twins will have three guys coming back from the WBC and Phil Hughes trying to come back from surgery and Kyle Gibson trying to work a new delivery. Don’t you want these guys pitching versus major league hitters? But I expect we’ll see the Twins try to give a couple more chances to Duffey, Mejia, Haley and Berrios.

 

Squeezing The Bullpen

There is a crunch in the bullpen, too, as starters eat more innings. And that crunch is exacerbated by a starting pitching competition as we saw on Monday. Duffey and Mejia both threw about 70 pitches back-to-back, leaving zero innings for the scheduled relievers, JT Chargois and Buddy Boshers.

 

Watching how the Twins manage their limited relief innings gives some indications on the bullpen competition. Like the starters, some of the more established relievers throw in minor league games. Also, the innings early in the game, when major league competition is still playing for the opposition, are more valuable. In the last few days:

  • Right-handers Brandon Kintzler and Matt Belisle pitched in AAA games yesterday. They’re safely in.
  • Left-hander Taylor Rogers pitched in a AAA game last week and was the first reliever in the game yesterday. He’s safe.
  • Left-hander Craig Breslow was added to the 40-man roster today when Trevor May was added to the 60-day DL, pitched in AAA today and was the first guy off the bench on Saturday to face major leaguers. He’s in.
  • Left-hander Boshers was scheduled to be used in Monday’s game but didn’t get in. Then he was scheduled for yesterday’s game but didn’t pitch until the ninth. And then he got beat up pretty bad, albeit while facing a string of right-handed hitters. For now, he looks “out”, especially because the bullpen looks like it already has two left-handers.
  • Right-hander Ryan Pressly is presumed “in” given his performance this spring. He will likely be scheduled to pitch tomorrow, so we’ll see how he’s used.
  • Right-hander Chargois was also scheduled to be in Monday’s game, came into the eighth inning, got into a little trouble, set himself up to work out of it, got drilled by a Howie Kendrick hit ball, and struggled after staying in the game after that. I think he’s the leading candidate for one of the last two spots, but I’ll list him as “on the bubble”. It’s possible that Haley, Duffey or Berrios end up pushing him out of the bullpen.
  • Right-handers Michael Tonkin and Alex Wimmers were the only serious bullpen candidates to be sentenced to the three-hour road trip across the state for today’s game. I also see that Wimmers got in the game before Tonkin. We’ll list them both as “fringe”.
So five of the seven spots are likely taken: Kintzler will close, with Belisle and Pressly as right-handers and Rogers and Breslow as left-handers. That leaves two spots, with Chargois as still the leading candidate, Tonkin and Wimmers as other candidates, and any of the losing starting pitchers as possible swing men.

 

Decisions will be made as to the final spots over the next week, but while you’re waiting, look for the smaller decisions. Pay attention to whom the club is giving their limited innings. Those choices will naturally lead to the bigger decisions.

 

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Agree. Those 5 names will make the opening day bullpen. I'm rooting for Chargois to make it as well!

 

My confidence level in Phil Hughes is very low. They should have another starter be the swing man to mop up multiple innings, and jump into the rotation at a moment's notice. Flip a coin between Mejia and Berrios to see who goes first.

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Have we heard that Justin Haley isn't an option for the bullpen? 

 

He hasn't pitched well, but he is still the pitcher that the current front office believes can be a potential MLB starter, they may want to keep him around. Right or wrong, that's the nature of the Rule 5. 

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As meaningless as ST numbers are...how has Wimmers looked? His meaningless numbers look good!

Well, in his meaningless 7.0 innings he has a ghastly 1.57 WHIP.

 

I kinda feel for these coaches. Only 6 Twins pitchers have thrown more than 10 innings. Is Wimmers a 1.57 WHIP pitcher? Probably not. I think he's better, but I have neither the eyes nor the training to say Wimmers is better than his 1.57 WHIP, or to say that Mejia is better than/not as good as his 1.12 WHIP and 8.79 K/9. 

 

Tom Kelly used to say that Kirby Puckett needed all of Spring Training to get ready for the season. He also said Hrbek could come in, play 3 games and he was ready. Everybody is different.

 

A tough job. Hope our coaches make good choices.

Edited by Oldgoat_MN
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So five of the seven spots are likely taken: Kintzler will close, with Belisle and Pressly as right-handers and Rogers and Breslow as left-handers. That leaves two spots, with Chargois as still the leading candidate, Tonkin and Wimmers as other candidates, and any of the losing starting pitchers as possible swing men.

 

I agree with part A.  Kintzler, Belisle, Pressly, Rogers, Breslow in 

 

That leaves 2 spots.  Chargois sucked pretty badly his last 3 outings, and he knows it.  He is out.  I think that Tonkin and Haley will fight for one spot.  I'd take the devil I do not know over the guy I know sucks, and I suspect the Twins will do.  Bye bye Tonkin.

 

Last spot: flip a coin or make a decision: Santiago is not stretched enough to start.  So he gets that spot and Duffey gets his rotation spot until they rotate in  few weeks.

 

 

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Have we heard that Justin Haley isn't an option for the bullpen? 

 

He hasn't pitched well, but he is still the pitcher that the current front office believes can be a potential MLB starter, they may want to keep him around. Right or wrong, that's the nature of the Rule 5. 

With his potential flexibility, I can see Haley having a role IF it's deemed that 1 or 2 of the younger guys need more MiLB time.  And, yeah, I'm staring right at Berrios.  He needed to be getting innings with the Twins, not riding the bench with Puerto Rico.  Just my humble opinion, of course.

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I agree with part A.  Kintzler, Belisle, Pressly, Rogers, Breslow in 

 

That leaves 2 spots.  Chargois sucked pretty badly his last 3 outings, and he knows it.  He is out.  I think that Tonkin and Haley will fight for one spot.  I'd take the devil I do not know over the guy I know sucks, and I suspect the Twins will do.  Bye bye Tonkin.

 

Last spot: flip a coin or make a decision: Santiago is not stretched enough to start.  So he gets that spot and Duffey gets his rotation spot until they rotate in  few weeks.

I really liked the little I saw in Pressly this spring.  He's shortened up his delivery some and was quicker to the plate.  I see him taking over the closer role and Kintzler getting traded, hopefully after a repeat of last years success.  I know, sounds counter-intuitive, but that's how I roll:  Look towards the future and quit dragging it out with guys like Hughes and Gibson.  If Santiago needs more innings, fine.  But I don't see him as part of the future, either.  I'm with you on Duffey, too.

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"Have we heard that Justin Haley isn't an option for the bullpen?

 

He hasn't pitched well, but he is still the pitcher that the current front office believes can be a potential MLB starter, they may want to keep him around. Right or wrong, that's the nature of the Rule 5. "

 

Seth, he's primarily who I'm thinking will join from the 5th starter candidates (though I think he's only nominally included in that list). I'll try to ask Molitor about bringing a swing man north like Haley.

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"Have we heard that Justin Haley isn't an option for the bullpen?

He hasn't pitched well, but he is still the pitcher that the current front office believes can be a potential MLB starter, they may want to keep him around. Right or wrong, that's the nature of the Rule 5. "

Seth, he's primarily who I'm thinking will join from the 5th starter candidates (though I think he's only nominally included in that list). I'll try to ask Molitor about bringing a swing man north like Haley.

 

With Haley, it's not about results in spring IF they believe he can be valuable down the road. They're not winning a division title, and probably not contending for a wild card, in 2017, so he's about whether he can provide value in 2018 and beyond. If they think he can, they should keep him around regardless of how he's pitched much of this spring. If they no longer see him with a future as a starter in the big leagues, they should send him back. If they're not sure, they should really try to work out a deal with Boston to keep him. 

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Have we heard that Justin Haley isn't an option for the bullpen?

 

He hasn't pitched well, but he is still the pitcher that the current front office believes can be a potential MLB starter, they may want to keep him around. Right or wrong, that's the nature of the Rule 5.

FWIW, JR Graham actually had a similar spring 2 years ago:

 

Haley, 2017: 7 G, 10.2 IP, 15 H, 10 R, 7.59 ERA, 3 BB, 11 K, .333 AVG, 1.69 WHIP

 

Graham, 2015: 10 G, 14 IP, 18 H, 10 R, 5.79 ERA, 6 BB, 7 K, .333 AVG, 1.71 WHIP

Edited by spycake
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Any way you slice it, I am very, very concerned for the bullpen.  When will our college arms ever produce?  I see Burdi, Metakolis and Jay are making the trip today.

 

Also Romero and Reed.  If any of these guys, and I mean any of them, had shown progress (where we think they were very close), I would be more optimistic.

 

I also think it would be great if the "Rice" brothers were both in the bullpen in meaningful roles.  JT should make the roster, I hope, and Tyler is still in running for starting job.  

 

I am not sure that I see much difference in the entire pitching staff from last year, even though there are 2 or 3 names that have changed in the bullpen.

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Last spot: flip a coin or make a decision: Santiago is not stretched enough to start.  So he gets that spot and Duffey gets his rotation spot until they rotate in  few weeks.

Thrylos:

 

Is you give Santiago the last spot in the bullpen, how does he get stretched out to start?  Long relievers don't get consistent enough work to do this.  Thus if he is to be a starter this year, I believe he needs to go to Rochester to get stretched out.

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Berrios has blown his chances of going north with the big team by sitting on the bench for the WC. He starts in Rochester. Mejia joins him so our "experts" can get a longer look at him. Duffy wins the 5th spot by default. Shaggy should join the major league pen. I see no future for Haley unless the Twins can cut a deal. If the BoSox wanted him back, he wouldn't have been available, IMO. So given the Twinkies historical interest in cast-offs, I think the pony up some cash and send him to Rochester. Given what we already have in the minors, I still can't figure out why we picked him up in the first place. But then I'm not a pitching guru, at least not as guru as some are said to be. Okay, maybe I'm not a guru at all. Maybe I've just been listening to Bert for too many seasons. Or maybe not enough seasons...

 

Whatever.

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This is not the pitching staff that moves us forward.  We have discussed the rotation throughout the spring and the winter and it just does not make sense.  Haley should go, Rule 5 players seldom make it - I wonder how many are still on the drafting teams right now - and Haley had a chance and did not grab it.  Breslow is a mystery.  New angle, new wishes, still a marginal, at best, performer.  Chargois is the biggest spring disappointment, he has definitely not performed well and like Haley this was his chance to move up the list.

 

Hughes has not looked good, despite all the he looked good despite giving up three home runs comments that are more hopeful than factual and his last outing did nothing to erase the memory of his previous one.  The rotation can have everyone reach their best and still be in the lower third of rotations.  

I suspect that Berrios will go down which I am very sorry about, but he has not grabbed the opportunity.  His line in the WBC Berrios, J PUR 1 0 5.40 1 1 0 5.0 2 3 3 2 1 6 0.60 does not give him a good argument. At least 5.40 is a better ERA than his major league total to date.  On the other hand Santiago looks good Santiago, H PUR 1 0 2.08 3 0 0 8.2 9 4 2 0 5 9 1.62 until to look at his WHIP which is a full 1.02 more than Berrios. 

https://www.worldbaseballclassic.com/stats/

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This is not the pitching staff that moves us forward.  We have discussed the rotation throughout the spring and the winter and it just does not make sense.  Haley should go, Rule 5 players seldom make it - I wonder how many are still on the drafting teams right now - and Haley had a chance and did not grab it.  Breslow is a mystery.  New angle, new wishes, still a marginal, at best, performer.  Chargois is the biggest spring disappointment, he has definitely not performed well and like Haley this was his chance to move up the list.

 

Hughes has not looked good, despite all the he looked good despite giving up three home runs comments that are more hopeful than factual and his last outing did nothing to erase the memory of his previous one.  The rotation can have everyone reach their best and still be in the lower third of rotations.  

I suspect that Berrios will go down which I am very sorry about, but he has not grabbed the opportunity.  His line in the WBC Berrios, J PUR 1 0 5.40 1 1 0 5.0 2 3 3 2 1 6 0.60 does not give him a good argument. At least 5.40 is a better ERA than his major league total to date.  On the other hand Santiago looks good Santiago, H PUR 1 0 2.08 3 0 0 8.2 9 4 2 0 5 9 1.62 until to look at his WHIP which is a full 1.02 more than Berrios. 

https://www.worldbaseballclassic.com/stats/

 

It looks like the WBC didn't bother updating stats after the championship game. If you add in Berrios' performance last night his WBC ERA was 8.71, actually making it somehow higher than his MLB ERA. Not that a couple short appearances actually mean a lot, but it isn't encouraging and didn't propel him into the lead for an MLB rotation spot.

 

This is the reason some of us had reservations about a guy at a major transition point in his career blowing off spring training to go ride the bench in a meaningless tournament. There are major issues with this guy's game right now and he set himself back by not staying back to work with his coaches who are heavily invested in his success. The season starts in a week and he's not going to get an opportunity for that level of attention and practice once games are being played every day.

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I just don't get the Haley thing. If I was DJ Baxendale (full disclosure: I'm not) I would be more than a little upset. I get that folks believe that Haley has more upside than DJ, but DJ is probably looking at it thinking, "Last year in AAA I had a lower WHIP, higher SO/9 and much better SO/W. How does he rate?".

 

Haley is not a Johan Santana picked from a incautious team at the age of 20. He will be 26 in June. I suppose it's even possible he will be one of our better pitchers this year, but I don't see a track record that insists that this will be so.

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It looks like the WBC didn't bother updating stats after the championship game. If you add in Berrios' performance last night his WBC ERA was 8.71, actually making it somehow higher than his MLB ERA. Not that a couple short appearances actually mean a lot, but it isn't encouraging and didn't propel him into the lead for an MLB rotation spot.

 

This is the reason some of us had reservations about a guy at a major transition point in his career blowing off spring training to go ride the bench in a meaningless tournament. There are major issues with this guy's game right now and he set himself back by not staying back to work with his coaches who are heavily invested in his success. The season starts in a week and he's not going to get an opportunity for that level of attention and practice once games are being played every day.

That is my concern too.  I have been a big fan of his, but something is setting him back and I fear it might be mental more than physical because he has shown the tools.  Who do we have that can really help him get past this obstacle?

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You have no long man in the current bullpen. One will be added. Either Duffey or Haley or random guy. Or they'll make Tonkin (sigh, why did they do that last year) or Wimmers do it. But, imo, there will be a long man there.

What a waste of Duffey. I hope they don't make him the long man. Sure, maybe it means he gets another shot at the rotation down the road but I'd prefer to see what he can do in a real bullpen role, not mop-up duties.

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This is not the pitching staff that moves us forward.  We have discussed the rotation throughout the spring and the winter and it just does not make sense.  Haley should go, Rule 5 players seldom make it - I wonder how many are still on the drafting teams right now - and Haley had a chance and did not grab it.  Breslow is a mystery.  New angle, new wishes, still a marginal, at best, performer.  Chargois is the biggest spring disappointment, he has definitely not performed well and like Haley this was his chance to move up the list.

 

Hughes has not looked good, despite all the he looked good despite giving up three home runs comments that are more hopeful than factual and his last outing did nothing to erase the memory of his previous one.  The rotation can have everyone reach their best and still be in the lower third of rotations.  

I suspect that Berrios will go down which I am very sorry about, but he has not grabbed the opportunity.  His line in the WBC Berrios, J PUR 1 0 5.40 1 1 0 5.0 2 3 3 2 1 6 0.60 does not give him a good argument. At least 5.40 is a better ERA than his major league total to date.  On the other hand Santiago looks good Santiago, H PUR 1 0 2.08 3 0 0 8.2 9 4 2 0 5 9 1.62 until to look at his WHIP which is a full 1.02 more than Berrios. 

https://www.worldbaseballclassic.com/stats/

Haley "had" a chance and did not grab it? He has pitched zero games for us. His milb track record is fairly good; I look forward to seeing him pitch in April and May, not March.

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I just don't get the Haley thing. If I was DJ Baxendale (full disclosure: I'm not) I would be more than a little upset. I get that folks believe that Haley has more upside than DJ, but DJ is probably looking at it thinking, "Last year in AAA I had a lower WHIP, higher SO/9 and much better SO/W. How does he rate?".

 

Haley is not a Johan Santana picked from a incautious team at the age of 20. He will be 26 in June. I suppose it's even possible he will be one of our better pitchers this year, but I don't see a track record that insists that this will be so.

If you take out Haley's AA performance in 2015, which was horrible, you will see that he has had a pretty stellar minor league career. Therefore, I am in the "wait and see what we have here" mode.

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