What would the return be on Revere?

[Thrylos]

I'm not sure I agree with this at all. Revere has more range (though Span is above average in the field) with lousy arm. Span has more power and gets on base more. He's not quite as good of a base stealer. Span is the better player right now. You are correct that Span will start his decline phase too, but I'm highly skeptical of guys whose only tool is speed and rely on a high BABIP. He's one tweaked hammy away from being a lousy player. I agree that Span gets traded, but let's be realistic. Revere is not an upgrade.

Beg to differ

 

Revere leads Span in wOBA, wRC+, WAR and each of AVE, OBP and SLG (and OPS of course).

 

As far as WAR goes, 2.8 vs 2.7 (Revere vs. Span), there is a 4 point bonus Span's way because of the position (-2.7 for Revere and +1.3 for Span). Put Revere where he belongs (CF) and he would be leading the whole team in WAR. In other words we would be a 6-7 WAR Centerfielder. (Ain't that "elite" ?)

 

Just sayin'

[jokin]

Beg to differ

 

Revere leads Span in wOBA, wRC+, WAR and each of AVE, OBP and SLG (and OPS of course).

 

As far as WAR goes, 2.8 vs 2.7 (Revere vs. Span), there is a 4 point bonus Span's way because of the position (-2.7 for Revere and +1.3 for Span). Put Revere where he belongs (CF) and he would be leading the whole team in WAR. In other words we would be a 6-7 WAR Centerfielder. (Ain't that "elite" ?)

 

Just sayin'

Nope, just a slump away from "mediocre":o

[Brock Beauchamp]

um.... MIL a contender? I guess as much as the Twins are

 

The Phillies will be all out for a lead-off man/CF this off-season, and Span would be a perfect fit for them. Revere too, but Span and the Phillies will be a match made in heaven and the Twins could get a nice return back.

I missed this earlier. I think Span could rake in Citizen's Bank Ballpark. Put him in a ballpark that isn't death to left-handers (even ones with masher ability) and I think he turns into a 10-12 homer guy. That greatly increases his value.

[twinswon1991]

Nope, just a slump away from "mediocre":o

He was also a Clete Thomas hot streak from not getting a chance this year.

 

A 3 month hot streak does not a good player make.

 

With that said Revere has brains and awareness on the bases Span only wishes he had.

[jokin]

He was also a Clete Thomas hot streak from not getting a chance this year.

 

A 3 month hot streak does not a good player make.

 

With that said Revere has brains and awareness on the bases Span only wishes he had.

Agreed about the 3-month hot streak.....Except those consistent high minor league numbers suggest some level of similar success is likely to last longer than 3 months as his career progresses.

 

Says a lot more about management than Revere that the Twins envisioned that Clete Thomas would ever be capable of a "Clete-Thomas-hot-streak". It's not a frequent item in his resume at any level. I think the whole thing with Revere was protecting Span's psyche and potential value down the road as he attempted his comeback from last year's lost, injury-riddled season.

[Steve Lein]

to Original Poster: Revere's not worth nearly as much as you're thinking in a trade, Span would bring back quite a bit more...

 

They are comparable outfielders on defense, and similar runners on the basepaths (Revere's obviously a bit quicker and a better basestealer), BUT, Span's bat is worth quite a bit more.

 

Span's career line in the majors: .285/.359/.387 = .746 OPS, and has topped an .800 OPS twice in his career.

 

Revere's career line in the majors: .286/.327/.336 = .663 OPS, and never topped a .750 OPS at any level in the minors above Beloit.

 

Do not underestimate how big of a difference those numbers paint as far as what type of hitters/batters they are. In that regard, Span is far more valuable (and honestly, that is where 75% -or more- of a guys "value" in a trade is derived).

 

Span gets on base by doing more than just hitting singles, and face it, that's all Revere does (Span actually has already set a career high for 2B's this year). Revere's avg. right now is almost 50 points higher than Span's, but the difference in OBP is negligible.

 

And I'm not at all saying I dislike Revere, in fact I like him a lot, and have always told people who were skeptical of him that he'd adjust to MLB pitching more than fine as far as Batting Avg. is concerned, just not for any type of power, which some seem to expect.

 

Span is also my resident Favorite Twins player at the moment, but I thought he should have been traded this year if for no other reasons than Revere is an obvious replacement in CF and batting leadoff, and Span was worth a decent SP in return. Also, as someone else mentioned above, on a rebuilding team, you don't trade a young guy making the minimum and under team control for years for the older guy whose contract will be over by the time you're done rebuilding when they are so interchangeable on the roster you already have.

 

With all that said, it also has been pretty nice having them BOTH around, right?! Why try to fix something that aint broke?!

 

When Aaron Hicks is here this September though, then you'll really see what an "elite" all-around defensive CF is... q;)

[Curt]

I wouldn't mind that .330 OBP batting 9th next year. Clearly not if he is batting second (or first).

Just for a little perspective... American League averages for 2012:

 

[TABLE]

[TD=width: 86]Lineup Position

[/TD]

[TD=width: 86]OBP[/TD]

1st

.333

2nd

.315

3rd

.347

4th

.345

5th

.321

6th

.318

7th

.313

8th

.302

9th

.291

[/TD]

[TD]

All

.321

[/TABLE]

 

Who wouldn't want a .330 OBP guy batting 9th? Half the teams could use that in the 1 and/or 2 spot.

[ALessKosherScott]

- Replace Revere with Parmelee. Some time early next season, Arcia is going to be knocking on the door. This gets Chris some playing time in the meantime for the next move...

...

- Hold on to Span until the 2013 offseason, at which point the second of Hicks/Arcia/Benson should be knocking on the door.

 

My two cents is that it's a pretty risky bet that you're going to win two out of three of Arcia/Hicks/Benson. They're all good enough prospects, but they're not exactly Harper and Trout either. Or even Kubel really. Each one has serious warts that threaten their upside, with Benson's contact problems being way more severe than Revere's power issues. That doesn't mean you don't dangle Revere. No one should be untouchable on a team that's heading toward another 90 loss season. That just means you have to be pretty quick to take him off the market pretty quickly when the market for leadoff hitters runs dry.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My two cents is that it's a pretty risky bet that you're going to win two out of three of Arcia/Hicks/Benson. They're all good enough prospects, but they're not exactly Harper and Trout either. Or even Kubel really. Each one has serious warts that threaten their upside, with Benson's contact problems being way more severe than Revere's power issues. That doesn't mean you don't dangle Revere. No one should be untouchable on a team that's heading toward another 90 loss season. That just means you have to be pretty quick to take him off the market pretty quickly when the market for leadoff hitters runs dry.

Yeah, it's a significant risk. I think at least one of them is going to succeed in MLB but it's looking more and more to me like Benson might not cut it. That means you have to hit on both Arcia and Hicks to make that plan work.

 

Still, I think it's an option worth exploring (and it's part of the reason why I suggested holding off on a Span trade until the following season at the earliest).

[jokin]

Ben Revere stats update through games of 8/7/12 plus cumulative career minor league totals.

 

This season: 329/360/387 BABIP: 356

 

Minor League: 326/383/404 BABIP: ~355

[Top Gun]

I would trade any OFer I could for a Young SP! I would prefer to trade Willingham & Parmelee for a pitcher like Drew Pomeranz. Then sign a FA like Liriano or A. Sanchez. Let's see how they do the rest of the year in our division.

[Buck Nasty]

Span's career line in the majors: .285/.359/.387 = .746 OPS, and has topped an .800 OPS twice in his career.

 

Revere's career line in the majors: .286/.327/.336 = .663 OPS, and never topped a .750 OPS at any level in the minors above Beloit.

 

Do not underestimate how big of a difference those numbers paint as far as what type of hitters/batters they are. In that regard, Span is far more valuable (and honestly, that is where 75% -or more- of a guys "value" in a trade is derived).

Revere has a higher OPS than Span this year. Your comparison doesn't take into consideration that at age 24, Revere is still getting better. He moved through the minors pretty quickly. Had he repeated a level (like many guys do including Hicks), he certainly would have inflated his career OPS. Just look at the difference between this year and last year at the MLB level.

 

I feel your comparison isn't completely fair since you are choosing to exclude his one year at Beloit from his overall minor numbers (the year he had a .930 OPS) while using all his MLB career line. At age 24 and with only two full years under his belt, his MLB career averages are probably less important than his year over year improvement.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ben Revere stats update through games of 8/7/12 plus cumulative career minor league totals.

 

This season: 329/360/387 BABIP: 356

 

Minor League: 326/383/404 BABIP: ~355

It's more than a little disingenuous to include his Rookie Ball (.358) and A Ball (.416) seasons in that number. Remove those two lower ball seasons and his MiLB BABIP is around .330, which is a more sustainable number.

[Steve Lein]

Revere has a higher OPS than Span this year. Your comparison doesn't take into consideration that at age 24, Revere is still getting better. He moved through the minors pretty quickly. Had he repeated a level (like many guys do including Hicks), he certainly would have inflated his career OPS. Just look at the difference between this year and last year at the MLB level.

 

I feel your comparison isn't completely fair since you are choosing to exclude his one year at Beloit from his overall minor numbers (the year he had a .930 OPS) while using all his MLB career line. At age 24 and with only two full years under his belt, his MLB career averages are probably less important than his year over year improvement.

Higher OPS... okay, by .006 pts... Can and will Revere get better? He certainly can and I'd expect improvements in some places (not necessarily hitting, a .329 average isn't exactly easy to keep duplicating), but that's not a sure thing, this could also be his best year (say, if he follows what Span has done...are you expecting him to be a .360/.400 hitter next year now?!), which wouldn't be all that close to Span's best year. My point is that Span is much more valuable as a hitter than Revere, as his obp/slugging, and thus, OPS, is not driven solely by his batting average.

[Steve Lein]

and I didn't include Revere's .930 OPS season at Beloit because it's an obvious outlier in his MiLB career (remember, never above .750 anywhere else...). His OPS at AAA this year was .700, while hitting .330, like he is now with Twins. Please don't ever think Revere is going to be closer to the .930 OPS guy he was at Low-A than the .750 OPS guy he is now in the majors...

[Brock Beauchamp]

and I didn't include Revere's .930 OPS season at Beloit because it's an obvious outlier in his MiLB career (remember, never above .750 anywhere else...). His OPS at AAA this year was .700, while hitting .330, like he is now with Twins. Please don't ever think Revere is going to be closer to the .930 OPS guy he was at Low-A than the .750 OPS guy he is now in the majors...

If a guy has a career track record in AA/AAA of ~.700 and one season of .900+ in A/A+, you always weight the AA/AAA stats significantly more, particularly when you're talking about multiple seasons of consistent play.

 

Lots and lots of guys post gaudy numbers in the low minors. If they don't show any sign of doing it again in the upper minors, there's an overwhelming chance that they'll never be anything close to that low minors player in the major leagues (barring a few outliers where players were promoted to the high minors at an extremely young age and hit the majors by age 20-21).

[Steve Lein]

^ exactly.

[ericchri]

Noticed some of the talk about "peak" seasons due to age difference between Span and Revere, and it made me remember an interesting article Joe Posnanski from SI did to take a cursory look at the question. He set the bar fairly high for a "good" season, and you can argue every which way from Sunday how to define a more reasonable criteria to judge those good seasons by age, but for a quick glance at the issue it was definitely surprising to see the approximate "peak" age.

 

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/02/aging-with-chart.html

[Brock Beauchamp]

Noticed some of the talk about "peak" seasons due to age difference between Span and Revere, and it made me remember an interesting article Joe Posnanski from SI did to take a cursory look at the question. He set the bar fairly high for a "good" season, and you can argue every which way from Sunday how to define a more reasonable criteria to judge those good seasons by age, but for a quick glance at the issue it was definitely surprising to see the approximate "peak" age.

 

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/02/aging-with-chart.html

Yep. A player's peak is typically between his 26-28 age seasons with the best year being age 27.

[Buck Nasty]

Players don't peak at age 24. If he had repeated levels in the minors (as many players do), he likely would have posted higher OPS during a repeated year. Again, I point to the year over year improvement - this year to last. Continued improvement won't come in the form of adding points to his BA. It will come from taking more walks, and hopefully more gap power. He's never going to be a high OPS guy. But .750+ with his defensive range = pretty good player.

[Buck Nasty]

Whoops. I was late and a post got in between. My response was to Steve and Brock.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Players don't peak at age 24. If he had repeated levels in the minors (as many players do), he likely would have posted higher OPS during a repeated year. Again, I point to the year over year improvement - this year to last. Continued improvement won't come in the form of adding points to his BA. It will come from taking more walks, and hopefully more gap power. He's never going to be a high OPS guy. But .750+ with his defensive range = pretty good player.

Absolutely. Revere with a .750 OPS looks really good up the middle. On a corner, not so much. Still acceptable but not the best use of his skill set.

 

I'm not sure how much room Revere has to grow (it all depends on whether turns into Denard with some gap power or whether he stays a Jamey Carroll type player) but I'm sure we will see some improvement in slugging as he develops. The only questions I have are (1)Will he learn to take a walk and (2)How high can he keep his BABIP. Those are the differences between a pretty decent Juan Pierre type player and one of the better leadoff guys in all of baseball.

[Steve Lein]

^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible.

 

But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.

[Buck Nasty]

^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible.

 

But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.

Well, I think that pesky concussion thing might have had something to do with Span regressing. It's hard to hit/play well when you can't stand up straight. Read my post again. Nobody is expecting Revere to improve by adding points to his BA. But is it really unreasonable to believe that a 24 year old player won't get better at pitch selection? If he takes more walks he'll be fine. He's a contact hitter with speed. If he's hitting the right pitches, he'll get plenty of doubles. You don't have to be a HR hitter to post a decent OPS (see Mauer).

[Steve Lein]

Span's OPS dropped from his rookie season before he had any concussions...

 

But regardless, to me, Revere's problem isn't pitch selection, which is why I don't see much improvement in OBP/OPS (will always be driven by his average).

 

My reasoning: He's actually pretty good at taking pitches I think, but he's also much better than most at making contact with the ball when he swings. Mauer is a great "hitter", right? Well, Mauer has K'd in 13.4% of his Plate Appearances this year. Revere? 8.0%. When he swings, he puts the ball in play. I am convinced if you looked it up (perhaps someone here knows how), Revere would have a very far below the league average swing-and-miss percentage. He doesn't foul that many balls off either. What I'm getting at, is if he swings, he is almost assuredly putting the ball out there for someone to have to field. If he wants to improve his OBP by drawing walks, he's going to have to leave that bat on his shoulder far more often than he is capable of, I think, because of this.

 

He's a great "contact hitter", which in his case, is a detriment to the On-base skills you're hoping he can develop.

[Brock Beauchamp]

^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible.

 

But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.

If you read the thread, I'm doing everything but assuming that Revere will improve. I said his slugging will probably improve. That's probably true, as most players improve their slugging a bit as they approach their peak age. Will he start walking more? Will his BABIP drop? Those are the questions I raised when I started the thread.

 

Span is a special case. He suffered a concussion and moved to a stadium that's a tough sell for players like him. If he didn't have dizziness problems and still hit in the Metrodome, it's hard to say what kind of numbers he'd be posting today.

[Steve Lein]

Brock - I've been responding to Buck, your points pretty much agree with mine in relation to his.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock - I've been responding to Buck, your points pretty much agree with mine in relation to his.

Use the Reply with Quote button, my man! It solves those types of problems...

[Steve Lein]

And just an FYI in relation to Span in Metrodome vs. Target Field:

 

In 2009 (metrodome), in 145 games, Span had 34 XBH's. This year (Target Field), in 101 games, he has 34 XBH's (career high in 2B's already).

 

If I go park specific, in 2009 (Metrodome), in 73 games: 8 2B's, 6 3B's, 5 HR's. (.446 slugging)

 

In 2012 (Target Field), in 51 games: 20 2B's, 2 3B's, 2 HR's. (.502 slugging)

 

I'll take 2012 Span in TF over 2009 Span in Metrodome any day of the week...

 

And I'll keep the reply with quote in mind, I don't like clogging up my posts with them usually, though!

[jokin]

Boggs, Carew, Cobb, and Brock all had OBP at least .050 higher than their BA (Boggs was .090 higher and only Brock was close to .050). Right now, Revere is sitting just .030 higher than his BA. That's what I mean by "riding a BABIP". If a guy is walking a lot, BABIP fluctuations don't hurt nearly as badly as if he's depending on that BABIP to get on base 95% of the time.

 

Revere will probably hit .300 no matter what. That's still pretty good. But the difference in a player like that getting on base 33% of the time versus 36% of the time or better is pretty significant.

From Fangraphs

 

Career BA/OBP/BABIP.....(OBP-BA differentials):

 

Boggs: 328/415/344 (+.087)

Cobb: 366/433/378 (+.067)

Carew: 328/393/359 (+.065)

Puckett: 318/360/342 (+.042)

Brock: 293/343/338 (+.040)

 

Revere: 288/327/316 (+.039)

 

First two seasons OBP-BA and BA/OBP

 

Revere: (.039) 288/327

 

Puckett: (.034) 292/326

Cobb: (.034) 337/371

Carew: (.045) 283/328

Brock: (.052) 263/319

Boggs: (.079) 356/435

 

BB% career/first 2 years

 

Boggs 13.1/11.3

Cobb 9.6/5.5

Carew 9.6/5.4

Brock 6.8/6.3

Puckett 5.7/4.2

 

Revere 5.1/5.1

 

 

Based on the numbers so far in his career, other's first two years in MLB- and with apologies to presumptuosuly making comparisons to 5 HOFers, how close is Revere to having a career leading to greatness- or leading to mediocrity?

 

Based on Revere's improvements this year in driving the ball much harder, hitting more gaps- sometimes more deeply- and by all appearances, more confidently and better handling of MLB pitching in general, can he at age 24, improve to a higher level in SLG (power production usually rises as a career continues) and OBP ( as demonstrated above, all of the above players improved their plate discipline and ability to draw more walks as their career continued, Cobb and Carew had very similar first two year BB rates to Revere- with the most dramatic % increase improvements in their overall BB% rate) and have a reasonable shot to end up at least close to the tail end (34-36% OBP) of the above HOFers' numbers?