Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 3.0

[Mike Sixel]

I think it would be ok if they lost Tonkin. They have about 100 RPs in AA and AAA that are about as good or better. Even at his best, imo, he's a decent RP, not a great one.

 

I am beginning to get hopeful that Vogelsgang is not on the roster. 

[Vanimal46]

 

  On 3/21/2017 at 2:07 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I think it would be ok if they lost Tonkin. They have about 100 RPs in AA and AAA that are about as good or better. Even at his best, imo, he's a decent RP, not a great one.

 

I am beginning to get hopeful that Vogelsgang is not on the roster. 

 

Agreed. Tonkin is not someone to worry about potentially losing. If you walked into a bar mid-conversation and overheard "He's a decent, not great reliever who throws hard," about 10 names on the Twins could come to mind.

At some point, they just need to trim the fat from this huge group of middle relievers.  

[Craig Arko]

Trevor May going to the 60-day DL will open up a 40 man spot, right? Is that already spoken for?

[Vanimal46]

 

  On 3/21/2017 at 2:22 PM, Craig Arko said:

Trevor May going to the 60-day DL will open up a 40 man spot, right? Is that already spoken for?

 

I think that open spot is going to Breslow. 

[Craig Arko]

 

  On 3/21/2017 at 2:24 PM, Vanimal46 said:

I think that open spot is going to Breslow. 

Gotcha.

[Brock Beauchamp]

  On 3/21/2017 at 1:02 PM, markos said:

I don't think it is appealing to "luck" to use to fWAR in this case. Santiago has benefitted in the last three seasons from pitching in one of the best pitching parks in all of baseball (definitely top-5) and in front of one of the best defenses in all of baseball (4th by UZR from 2014-2016). Gibson has not had those same benefits, particularly in the case of defense where the Twins have been terrible (2nd worst by UZR in the same timeframe). There is an ERA gap between Santiago and Gibson, but it isn't huge.

KG HS

2014 4.47 3.75

2015 3.84 3.59

2016 5.07 4.70

It works out to only 5-10 runs a season. Personally, I think the defensive and stadium differences are more than enough to explain Santiago's ERA advantage. Even bWAR has Gibson ahead over the past 3 seasons, 5.8 bWAR to 3.2 bWAR, because it recognizes that Gibson has faced harder opponents, in worse ballparks, and with worse defenses behind him.

Santiago also had acceptable results with the White Sox.

 

I'm not arguing whether Santiago is a good pitcher, only that he's not terribly different than Gibson.

 

And, yes, Santiago is a flyball guy, which is a good thing on the 2017 Twins. Gibson has a lackluster infield defense behind him and also has the disadvantage of the low strike being removed this season.

 

I'm not sure why it's so controversial to suggest that neither Gibson nor Santiago are particularly good pitchers and are largely interchangeable.

 

edit: did the strike zone change actually happen or was it only proposed?

[Squirrel]

  On 3/21/2017 at 2:45 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

edit: did the strike zone change actually happen or was it only proposed?

Only proposed. I don't think the players' union agreed to that one.

[tobi0040]

The hardest spots to fill defensively are CF and SS.

 

At CF eligibles are Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, and Escobar.

 

SS you have Polanco, Escobar. Dozier in a pinch.

 

Wouldn't it make sense to have a guy that can hit on the bench over Santana?

[ThejacKmp]

 

  On 3/21/2017 at 2:05 AM, DocBauer said:

As long as Grossman is healthy, we have our 4 OF.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think DanSan is the 25th man. I really believe it comes down to him, Adrianza and Gonzalez. Adriana has the leather but not much else. To be fair, his mile numbers aren't bad and opportunity may have eluded him previously. Monitor seems to like Gonzalez, but he could sit at AAA for now. Santana is still young and athletic and Molitor seems to like him. I know we bash him, and rightly so at times, for his "ability" to play 6 positions...but...even playing them average to not so well is still different than tossing an OF in at 2B, or a 1B/DH in to the OF. And he has hit pretty well this far. I'm hoping Goodrum becomes what we hoped Santana would be, and soon, but I think the final spot still goes to DanSan.

 

I think the "Santana and Grossman" thing effectively makes Grossman the 5th OF and back up DH. There's no reason to get Grossman in the OF late in games, I guess he might draw the occasional start against left handed pitching?

 

To me Santana's ability to play multiple positions and provide the best pinch running of the guys running does the trick. Not excited (and pretty sure that this time next season that role will belong to Granite) but I think it's the best call.

[stringer bell]

Here are some roster realities. Haley is a Rule V, so he would have to be offered back to his original club if he's not on the 25-man roster. Santana, Adrianza, Grossman are all out of options. Vargas has another option remaining, as does Murphy. Park, Vogelsong, Schuck, Stubbs, Breslow (today) and Gimenez aren't on the 40-man roster and would have to be added in order to go north with the club. The 40-man is currently full, but Trevor May is a certainty to go on the 60-day DL and open a spot. The only veteran that I know of with an opt-out is Breslow, which is supposed to be resolved today (most likely added to the 40-man, with May on the 60-day DL).

[zenser]

Breslow was added to the 40 man.  I haven't heard a corresponding move though.  Can they put May on the 60 day DL now? 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/twins-to-add-craig-breslow-to-40-man.html

 

[tobi0040]

Danny Santana has had 500 AB over the last two years. Roughly one full season worth. He has a negative WAR of 3.5. He has been negative both offensively and defensively both years.

 

So I am not following why we should be factoring in his lack of options and be worried about some other team picking him up. Wouldn't losing a negative player and another team picking him up be two good things?

[Deduno Abides]

  On 3/20/2017 at 9:50 PM, caninatl04 said:

Maybe I'm adding 2 plus 2 and getting 7, but:

 

• Park's problem last year started with trying to catch up to MLB fast balls.
• As we hear from reports from Twins pitchers, they are not up to opening day velocities.  So, I assume this may be true for other clubs as well.
• Maybe Park's stellar states are against these spring training (lower) velocities.

You could be right, but Park is having a much better spring, e.g., 4 HR, 5 walks, 9 Ks in 2017, vs. 3-1-17 in 2016.

[mlhouse]

Chris Gimenez, because giving ABs to 34 year old catcher with a career .632 OPS is a much better utilization of them than trying to get your prospect catcher some opportunity in the big leagues.  I am sure that the Twins plan to bring Mitch Garver up when he is about 30 years old.

[Dr. Evil]

Would not surprise me if Dansan and Esco were replaced.

[Dr. Evil]

  On 3/21/2017 at 6:23 PM, tobi0040 said:

Danny Santana has had 500 AB over the last two years. Roughly one full season worth. He has a negative WAR of 3.5. He has been negative both offensively and defensively both years.

So I am not following why we should be factoring in his lack of options and be worried about some other team picking him up. Wouldn't losing a negative player and another team picking him up be two good things?

You nailed it!

[jud6312]

  On 3/21/2017 at 3:26 AM, Riverbrian said:

However... I think if the Twins send him to Rochester... and use up that one option right away... He's done because hat means he gets called up when someone goes on the 15 day DL and he will have a short window to prove himself with possible limited playing time and when someone returns from the DL... he will be exposed to waivers if he doesn't establish himself from the get go and that will be about the same time that other squads will be looking for a big hitter on the cheap to replace an injury or something... 

Does the 4th option year work the same as regular options or are there special rules for it?

 

This year will count as an option regardless of how many times he's up and down, right? So, at least in theory, we could start in Rochester, come up for injuries and go back when that time is up without being exposed to waivers.

 

Although I'm not sure if this 4th year has special rules connected to it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

4th option year is same as all others. The Twins are free to option and recall Vargas as many times as they wish this season.

[beckmt]

Still think the Twins will watch the wavier wire close to the end of spring training.  One guy I am looking at is Marco Hernandez from Boston.  He may get squeezed there and I do not know his option status.  Can play most infield positions as well as left field.  Does not have the speed of DanSan, but may well be a much better fielder.  Good year last year between Pawtucket and Boston.

[beckmt]

I also still like Goodrum.  He may need A 1/2  Season in AAA to be ready, but he probably will be a better option than DanSan or maybe Escobar, if not this season then next season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 3/22/2017 at 10:31 AM, beckmt said:

One guy I am looking at is Marco Hernandez from Boston.  He may get squeezed there and I do not know his option status.

Marco Hernandez has two option years remaining.  He was added to the Red Sox 40-man in Nov. 2015, so 2016 was his first option year.

 

Here's a list of out of options guys -- it obviously includes a lot of players who have zero risk of hitting waivers this spring (Zach Britton!) but it is a good reference point:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/out-of-options-2017.html

[beckmt]

 

  On 3/22/2017 at 5:59 PM, spycake said:

Marco Hernandez has two option years remaining.  He was added to the Red Sox 40-man in Nov. 2015, so 2016 was his first option year.

 

Here's a list of out of options guys -- it obviously includes a lot of players who have zero risk of hitting waivers this spring (Zach Britton!) but it is a good reference point:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/out-of-options-2017.html

Thanks,  My point was he has no future in the short or long term with the Sox.  Maybe the Twins should target him.

[jsteve96]

How much longer do we have to watch Phil Hughes start? He's by far the worst one we have.

[jsteve96]

I think that Tonkin will make it over Chargois, and I think Park makes the roster over Vargas.. also, no chance that Mauer would ever sit for vargas vs lefties.. Even if Vargas slashed 1.000/1.000/4.000 vs lefties they wouldn't bench mauer

[HitInAPinch]

Tonkin gone.  Please. 
Vargas sealed his fate when he signed on with Pueto Rico and sat on the bench.  Same with Berrios.  He REALLY should have been in the Twins camp.  Last year, Park had issues with MLB pitching, which was to be expected.  He also had an injury.  Healthy again and with some MLB experience, he looks to me to be the sole DH/1st base option.  Grossman as the left-handed alternative.  

 

Isn't it time to move on from DanSan?  He had one really good year filling in at CF.  Next year, management decided to start him at SS.  Bad management?  IDK, but as others have said, Twins need some defensive improvements.  Castro signing will prove to be a huge benefit to the pitchers.

[stringer bell]

Hughes got knocked around facing mostly major leaguers after a three-hour bus ride. It may be a blip on the radar or it may signal he just doesn't have it after his surgery. As far as Berrios goes, even if he's sent to Rochester, he'll get his chance again in Minnesota, probably long before the All-Star game. Park/Vargas? IMHO, neither is proven, but Vargas is younger and a switch hitter and he's on the 40-man. I don't think the Twins want to give him away (or whoever would have to leave the 40-man) so that they can add Park. Santana? The Twins thought they had caught lightning in a bottle when he came up in 2014, but he hasn't flashed much of that since. The biggest problem is that he's not a good defender anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins kept him this spring, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was DFAed early in the season, if not by the final roster cuts.