Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 3.0

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm curious why people are willing to give Gibson a guaranteed spot in the rotation but think Santiago should be removed.

 

I think Gibson has a slightly higher chance of being above average but when all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Santiago have a better season (as low as that bar may be for both of them).

 

They're basically the same age and Santiago has a longer, better track record.

[Thrylos]

I took a shot at my thoughts on who will be the 25 whom the Twins will call upon, yesterday, here.  

 

As far as position players we have the same with the exception that I have Park over Vargas.  Vargas has not seen much game time this Spring and Park has been playing very well.   Not necessarily my personal preference, but I think that the Twins will bring Santana up North over both Arianza and Bengie Gonzalez (Gonzalez a dark horse here, but has options).  I think that the Stubbs train passed.

 

I got the pitching slightly different as well.   I just cannot see how Hector Santiago will be ready to start games when he pitched max 2-2/3 innings and even pitched with 2 days rest.  I have him in the pen over Duffey (who has options) with both Berios and Mejia making the rotation.  The only other difference is that I have Haley over Chargois in the pen.  I think that the Twins like Haley enough to keep him and I don't see them working out a trade with the Red Sox.

 

Other than these few differences, it is pretty close.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 3/20/2017 at 9:57 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm curious why people are willing to give Gibson a guaranteed spot in the rotation but think Santiago should be removed.

 

I think Gibson has a slightly higher chance of being above average but when all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Santiago have a better season (as low as that bar may be for both of them).

 

They're basically the same age and Santiago has a longer, better track record.

 

for me, the Twins want more control and strike throwing. That doesn't work for Santiago, he appears to be wildly effective.....so, if they are really going all in on this "control or don't pitch" thing, I have concerns. But, i'd pencil them both in, now that both are signed. 

[DJSim22]

Gimenez, Belisle, and Breslow are the three new vets Seth has making the team and I agree with this is how it will play out.  I'd personally roll with Gimenez and Belisle and keep Boshers.

 

We need a big improvement in pitching, have two veterans in the bullpen who can gets outs and another veteran catcher to work with the staff is not a bad idea.  Garver should be catching everyday in Rochester.  Anyone really upset about Gimenez taking Murphy's spot?  Is anyone really upset that Belisle gets a spot over Tonkin or Duffey?  Breslow gets a spot over Boshers?  Not to mention most of the guys not making the team that are listed will probably see time due to injuries.  If nothing else there's more depth. 

[Deduno Abides]

  On 3/20/2017 at 9:57 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm curious why people are willing to give Gibson a guaranteed spot in the rotation but think Santiago should be removed.

 

I think Gibson has a slightly higher chance of being above average but when all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Santiago have a better season (as low as that bar may be for both of them).

 

They're basically the same age and Santiago has a longer, better track record.

 

Gibson has a better track record - more years with higher WAR, especially averaging the last three years. He costs much less and has years of control remaining. He has more upside if they can fix last year's problems with his delivery. Santiago is losing velocity and has worse control. Santiago's peripheral stats are consistently worse. Santiago's track record is elevated by greatly exceeding his peripherals. As Randall Simon, the one-time All Star, has shown, that is unlikely to continue.

[Buddy Holly]

I will agree that Danny Santana will go north with the team as the 25 man. They will be selling t-shirts with "DanSan 25th man" on front and "no entiendo WAR" on back. 

[djvang]

I'm not convinced Polanco has enough arm for SS. He seems to know it too and rushes his throws. Hopefully they'll be able to keep Adrianza in AAA as a backup. Dozier could still be dealt during the season with Polanco moved to 2B.

[Brock Beauchamp]

  On 3/20/2017 at 10:57 PM, Deduno Abides said:

Gibson has a better track record - more years with higher WAR, especially averaging the last three years. He costs much less and has years of control remaining. He has more upside if they can fix last year's problems with his delivery. Santiago is losing velocity and has worse control. Santiago's peripheral stats are consistently worse. Santiago's track record is elevated by greatly exceeding his peripherals. As Randall Simon, the one-time All Star, has shown, that is unlikely to continue.

You just illustrated why I have huge problems with fWAR for pitchers.

 

If a guy "gets lucky" for four consecutive seasons and two different teams, it becomes pretty hard to argue it's "luck" with a straight face.

 

FIP-based metrics have a place and they're accurate for most players but we need to admit they're flat-out broken for others (e.g. Nolasco, Ricky).

[ThejacKmp]

Santana would be the Twins only pinch runner who can steal a base. That's worth something as the 25th man as well.

 

Wish it was Murphy over Gimenez but it's not important enough.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

  On 3/20/2017 at 11:23 PM, Buddy Holly said:

I will agree that Danny Santana will go north with the team as the 25 man. They will be selling t-shirts with "DanSan 25th man" on front and "no entiendo WAR" on back. 

 

You could make money marketing that here.

[twinssporto]

 

  On 3/20/2017 at 3:51 PM, Tibs said:

I guess I'm a little confused with the obsession over veteran leadership when we have Santana, Hughes, Castro, Dozier, Mauer plus a few others. How much veteran leadership do you need?

The key word there is leadership.  The veteran part confuses people.  Joe Mauer is a veteran.  I don't think anyone would argue that point...Is he a leader in the club house?  Doesn't look like it to me.  Obviously that is just my opinion but Joe has never struck me as a rallying type of guy.  

 

Not sure of Santana, Hughes, Castro.  Dozier may be the closest to that "leadership" person out of the group you mentioned.

[tobi0040]

I will say if Danny Santana breaks camp with the team it is a strike against the new front office. This in conjunction to the IMO short sided move of moving Jay to the pen (especially after you lose May) and my optimism is fading fast.

 

Their is simply no reason for it. NONE.

[DocBauer]

I think you're close Seth. The WBC has messed with preparation time for a few guys and that stinks to high heaven, but it is what it is.

 

I'd also say Park over Vargas. Vargas is a bit of a favorite of mine, but he just hasn't been here and hasn't played much and still has an option now. Park has simply looked much better than last season and I think he sticks.

 

Really big on Garver, but getting him playing daily to begin the season with Gimenez as the backup makes some sense. For now at least. Really, has any spot on the team improved more this season than catcher?

 

I completely agree on Berrios or Mejia as the 5th starter. Vigelsong has shown nothing. There HAS to be room for one of the young starters. And I don't care which one, because the other will be up, and probably soon. There is going to be enough depth, enough options, that we don't have to play the "veteran placeholder" card for the 5th rotation spot.

 

As long as Grossman is healthy, we have our 4 OF.

 

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think DanSan is the 25th man. I really believe it comes down to him, Adrianza and Gonzalez. Adriana has the leather but not much else. To be fair, his mile numbers aren't bad and opportunity may have eluded him previously. Monitor seems to like Gonzalez, but he could sit at AAA for now. Santana is still young and athletic and Molitor seems to like him. I know we bash him, and rightly so at times, for his "ability" to play 6 positions...but...even playing them average to not so well is still different than tossing an OF in at 2B, or a 1B/DH in to the OF. And he has hit pretty well this far. I'm hoping Goodrum becomes what we hoped Santana would be, and soon, but I think the final spot still goes to DanSan.

[Gagne Fan]

Haley has been awful

Would have no chance if he wasn't a rule 5 guy

The FO was 100% wrong taking him.

There are much better guys that have been in the organization a while.

Watched him Sunday against the Red Sox, 87-90, mostly 88...nothing special

[jud6312]

 

  On 3/20/2017 at 5:01 PM, Respy said:

Danny Santana 2017 WAR: Over/Under 0.0?

I don't think the question is if it will be under 0, rather how much under.

[Deduno Abides]

  On 3/21/2017 at 12:06 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

You just illustrated why I have huge problems with fWAR for pitchers.

If a guy "gets lucky" for four consecutive seasons and two different teams, it becomes pretty hard to argue it's "luck" with a straight face.

FIP-based metrics have a place and they're accurate for most players but we need to admit they're flat-out broken for others (e.g. Nolasco, Ricky).

In terms of BABIP, walk rate, K rate, and hard-medium-soft contact, the average hitter against Santiago last year put up stats similar to Edwin Encarnacion. (Santiago's HR rate was better, but that could be park factors.) In Santiago's "best" year, he won four games. He's really really bad.

[D.C Twins]

 

  On 3/20/2017 at 3:44 PM, Vanimal46 said:

I also would not mind Mejia over Berrios for the 5th starter. Really anyone over Vogelsong. Though I did get a good chuckle out of this line describing Vogelsong: "many are impressed with his veteran-ness" 

 

Picturing in my head Berrios and Mejia watching in AWE, maybe even recording it on Instagram that a 39 year old can throw a ball 88 MPH. 

 

This made me laugh out loud.....Thank you!

[D.C Twins]

 

  On 3/20/2017 at 11:23 PM, Buddy Holly said:

I will agree that Danny Santana will go north with the team as the 25 man. They will be selling t-shirts with "DanSan 25th man" on front and "no entiendo WAR" on back. 

Outstanding! (still laughing)

 

Quick mental exercise. If we release DanSan would he be on another MLB 25 man roster on opening day?  I for one would bet no, which would make us taking him North...just a wee bit sad.

[Riverbrian]

Here's Mine:

 

Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Mejia, Kinzler, Pressly, Belisle, Rogers, Chargois, Breslow and Haley are the arms.

 

Castro, Jimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Adrianaza, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Grossman, Buxton, Santana and Kepler are the hitters.

 

If anyone wants to read a long post... I'll show my work below.

 

I think you have to work backwards from the current 40 man to end up with the answer.

 

1. 40 Man is currently full

 

2. Trevor May will be placed on the 60 Day DL opening up 1 spot.

 

3. It hasn't been determined what will happen with Perkins but I don't think Perkins will want to wait until June 1 so I think he will be placed on the new 10 day so we won't get a second 40 man slot without exposing someone else to waivers.

 

4. So... Now you have to ask yourself... who would the Twins (not you or me but the Twins brass) be comfortable losing or believe they can slide through waivers and retain to open up an extra 40 man slot. Bullpen possible 40 man cut considerations: Boshers, O'Rourke, Tonkin and Haley and Position Player Possible 40 man cuts: Santana, Adrianaza and Vargas. I do not believe anybody else on the 40 man is a serious cut consideration.

 

5. Next you have to determine who they would add to the 40 man roster so they can put them on the 25 man.

 

6. Gimenez... Gimenez looks like he has clearly out performed Murphy and I think he is the 1st choice to add to the roster and take over May's open 40 man spot. Personally... I'm not a fan of both Garver and Murphy climbing over each other for playing time in Rochester but I think Gimenez is the clear back up choice based on performance in a small sample size and MLB experience.

 

7. Breslow... If Breslow is making the team and it sounds like he might. Someone has to go off the 40 man to make room. Boshers and O'Rourke have options and do not have to be exposed to waivers and can be stashed as depth and this makes them more valuable in my eyes and that means that either Tonkin or Haley will have to be removed from the 40 man to make room for Breslow. I think they like Haley and would like to keep him around. They had the 1st selection in the rule 5 and could have taken anybody they wanted and this is the guy they wanted. If they can't work out a trade for Haley with Boston... Tonkin has to be the one who is released. I believe someone will claim Tonkin. Say your goodbyes now.

 

8. The only other option for keeping Tonkin on the roster while making room for Breslow and hanging on to Haley would be for a roster cut of either Santana, Adrianaza or Vargas but you have to ask yourself this... Is Tonkin worth hanging on to at any expense. And perhaps most importantly... Keeping Tonkin means keeping him on the 25 man and that means that either Rogers or Chargois will not have a spot on the 25 man. Tonkin has to be gone.

 

9. Vogelsong... I think the May injury opened a door for Vogelsong but in the end... common sense will prevail and a 39 year old with an 88 MPH fastball that also hasn't put up good numbers for 4 years and hasn't put up good numbers in Ft. Myers this year... and... and... must be added to the 40 man and cause releasing someone else to accommodate his questionable addition is too much to overcome. I don't think it will happen but if it does... HE BETTER BE WORTH IT!!! His addition will cost us a lefty bullpen option or a Haley... or one of Santana, Adrianaza or Vargas. I wouldn't trade any of those choices straight up for Vogelsong... I just don't see it happening.

 

10. There should be 13 position player spots available for the 25 man roster. I am assuming that Castro, Gimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Escobar, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Grossman are locks. That's 11 and it leaves two positions for Santana, Adrianaza, Vargas, Park or a surprise.

 

11. Park... He looks great but he was taken off the 40 man and he would have to be re-added to the 40 man in order to make the 25 man and this will cost us a player. No matter how well Park has performed in the spring. I think it's simply easier to stash him in AAA and wait until the 1st injury to call him up. We will have more data on who should come off the 40 man to make room by then and more data on how Park is doing in AAA. He doesn't need to be rushed onto a roster spot.

 

12. Kennys Vargas... The Twins secured an extra option for Vargas so he can be sent down and I'm betting that there are some in the meeting rooms who are advocating that. And Surprisingly... I also think he should be sent down to Rochester to start the season. Here's the deal... I am personally a big Vargas fan... The ball comes off his bat at 12 Million miles an hour... I think he can become a nice contributor and I've said many times that he was screwed by Molitor last year after having a beautiful July and he is my poster boy as a result. But... Man... He looks real messed up right now. First off... he has been beaten out of the starting Puerto Rico 1B job by someone called TJ Rivera who is the #30 Prospect in the Mets system and not even a 1B. Vargas has played very little and when he has played it has been strikeout after strikeout. The WBC has been horrible for him and he is missing valuable fix whatever is wrong with him time in Ft. Myers. He looks like he has to solve some issues in Rochester.

 

However... I think if the Twins send him to Rochester... and use up that one option right away... He's done because hat means he gets called up when someone goes on the 15 day DL and he will have a short window to prove himself with possible limited playing time and when someone returns from the DL... he will be exposed to waivers if he doesn't establish himself from the get go and that will be about the same time that other squads will be looking for a big hitter on the cheap to replace an injury or something... So... He will be gone. So in conclusion and in clearly twisted logic. The only chance that Vargas has is: Make the opening day roster when he doesn't look ready and give him the DH job when he doesn't look ready and hope he finds his stroke in the short meantime. Will the Twins do this? I'm not so sure... I would... but will the Twins? I think Point #13 may happen instead.

 

13. Adrianaza and Santana... Here is where it gets interesting to me... On the Surface it looks simple... Either Adrianaza and Santana for one spot and either Park or Vargas for the other spot and call it done. Neither Adrianaza or Santana have options available and both would have to be exposed to waivers and it is possible that both could clear waivers... But... I think Molitor wants Santana to stay and I think Falvey/Levine want Adrianaza to stay as Polanco defensive insurance. I would be both surprised and not surprised if both Adrianaza and Santana take the final roster spots while Vargas and Park are both in Rochester to start the year. Santana is currently the spring training AB leader and he is playing every single position that Molitor can think of... He is clearly being test drove and I think Adrianaza was added for a reason. I'm not saying this will happen but I am saying that I will not rule this out.

 

14. Grossman becomes the everyday DH if #13 happens and his time in the OF will be very limited as a result. Vargas and Park will compete real hard for that next man up position. If anyone gets hurt...anyone besides a catcher and Vargas or Park will be called up. Because Grossman can play some OF and we have IF Depth coming out of our ears.

 

15. Surprise considerations: Let's look at them... I don't think Shuck or Stubbs will make the squad. They haven't lit the grapefruits on fire and that's what they needed to do. Paulsen not likely because it would mean that Paulsen beat Park out for the job in spring training and he did not do that. If Park is going down for convenience than Paulsen can conveniently not make the 25 man.

 

16. The 5th spot in the rotation. I have ruled Vogelsong out using common sense in point #9. Haley did not grab the job with both hands and will have to be hid in the back of the bullpen instead of thrown directly to the wolves. So unless the Twins grab a last minute cut from another roster which is possible. The 5th spot will go to someone on the 40 man and it's either Berrios, Mejia or Duffey. Flip a three headed coin and stay tuned to TwinsDaily. I'll say Mejia right now based upon that 11 strikeout performance but I will change my mind to Berrios if he is lights out in the WBC Championship game. On the other hand Duffey looked great today and he looked great in 2015.

 

So... Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Mejia, Kinzler, Pressly, Belisle, Rogers, Chargois, Breslow and Haley are the arms.

 

Castro, Jimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Adrianaza, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Grossman, Buxton, Santana and Kepler are the hitters.

 

This isn't what I would do... It's what I think the Twins will do.

[Riverbrian]

BTW... What I'd do if I were Falvey/Levine at this very moment,

 

I'd use the exact same logic for the Rotation and bullpen.

 

I would have the same 11 position player locks and for the final two spots... I would start both Vargas and Park in Rochester but instead of going with both Adrianaza and Santana. I would get real serious about defense and cut Santana and I would sign Brett Lawrie. Yeah I know... Lawrie isn't exciting anyone right now. He can't stay healthy... Yeah I know... But let's get serious about defense if we are going to take a step in that direction. Lawrie is one of the best defensive 3B in the game and he has a run into walls mentality and some pop. He'd be an exceptional backup who can also play 2B or even OF if needed. With Vargas and Park in AAA... Sano can play an occasional DH while Lawrie plays an occasional 3B.

 

You don't have to sign him to a 6 year deal. Just a 1 year deal and let's see if he can find that potential he once had. It'll just cost us Santana.

[Oldgoat_MN]

1. I agree with Deduno Abides that if Haley weren't a Rule 5 pick he wouldn't even be in the conversation. Pitchers we had in AAA that had a lower WHIP than Haley in AAA last year include Sean Burnett, Jake Reed,Jose Berrios, Pat Light, Shaggy, Baxendale, Neil Ramirez, Nick Greenwood and Buddy Boshers. Keeping him would serve no other purpose other than to say, "we picked this guy so he must be good".

2. Vogelsong? You cannot be serious. The guy had a good MLB career. Congratulation! Goodbye.

3. I don't want to put words in Brock's mouth, so I'll just say I think Gibson and Santiago are practically the same pitcher. No telling which is going to be better this year. We will soon see, but I'm not going to cut one based on 1 good WAR year for one vs. better ERA+ years for the other.

4. That said, Santiago starting in the BP for Puerto Rico suggests Mejia only has to avoid getting lit up between now and April 3 to be in the starting rotation. Not sure who the other will be, but please, please please not Vogelsong.

 

Even I'm tired of my whining now.

[jokin]

 

  On 3/21/2017 at 3:26 AM, Riverbrian said:

I think you have to work backwards from the current 40 man to end up with the answer.


3. It hasn't been determined what will happen with Perkins but I don't think Perkins will want to wait until June 1 so I think he will be placed on the new 10 day so we won't get a second 40 man slot without exposing someone else to waivers.








 

 

Perhaps you saw it over the weekend... the Cardinals (or Red Sox) broadcasting crew noted that Perkins doesn't look anywhere near close to being ready. Velocity was reported to be only 78 MPH.

 

I'm guessing 60-Day.

Edited March 21, 2017 by jokin

[Squirrel]

  On 3/21/2017 at 5:44 AM, jokin said:

Perhaps you saw it over the weekend... the Cardinals (or Red Sox) broadcasting crew noted that Perkins doesn't look anywhere near close to being ready. Velocity was reported to be only 78 MPH.

 

I'm guessing 60-Day.

And then done. I don't think he'll pitch again.

[Riverbrian]

  On 3/21/2017 at 5:44 AM, jokin said:

Perhaps you saw it over the weekend... the Cardinals (or Red Sox) broadcasting crew noted that Perkins doesn't look anywhere near close to being ready. Velocity was reported to be only 78 MPH.

 

I'm guessing 60-Day.

I read 78 reported in the Pioneer Press but Brian Murphy made it sound deliberate at this stage of rehab.

 

I don't like the word shoulder and I still find that to be the scariest word in the whole article.

[mrkarbo]

i think Park is main DH with Vargas platoon with Mauer. Hope they dont block prospects with Vogelsong. Grossman against leftys. Santana 25th man, has speed and can play about anywhere.

[markos]

 

  On 3/21/2017 at 12:06 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

You just illustrated why I have huge problems with fWAR for pitchers.

If a guy "gets lucky" for four consecutive seasons and two different teams, it becomes pretty hard to argue it's "luck" with a straight face.

FIP-based metrics have a place and they're accurate for most players but we need to admit they're flat-out broken for others (e.g. Nolasco, Ricky).

I don't think it is appealing to "luck" to use to fWAR in this case. Santiago has benefitted in the last three seasons from pitching in one of the best pitching parks in all of baseball (definitely top-5) and in front of one of the best defenses in all of baseball (4th by UZR from 2014-2016). Gibson has not had those same benefits, particularly in the case of defense where the Twins have been terrible (2nd worst by UZR in the same timeframe). There is an ERA gap between Santiago and Gibson, but it isn't huge.
      KG   HS
2014 4.47 3.75
2015 3.84 3.59
2016 5.07 4.70
It works out to only 5-10 runs a season. Personally, I think the defensive and stadium differences are more than enough to explain Santiago's ERA advantage. Even bWAR has Gibson ahead over the past 3 seasons, 5.8 bWAR to 3.2 bWAR, because it recognizes that Gibson has faced harder opponents, in worse ballparks, and with worse defenses behind him.

[Beemo]

Why is Danny Santana continually referred to as the 25th man? Until Molitor proves something different to me I assume that if Santana is on the roster he will play in three out of every four games, just like he did last year. Are you really the 25th man when you play more than half of the roster?

 

[hybridbear]

 

  On 3/20/2017 at 4:05 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

(4) Everybody needs to stop it with projecting Buxton as the leadoff hitter.. He is nowhere near ready to handle the pressure of that position. He should hit nine with Polanco leading off or, if we want to get more Sabremetrically oriented, Mauer and Grossman leading off because of their high OBP. 

I agree 100%!

[Willihammer]

  On 3/21/2017 at 1:02 PM, markos said:

I don't think it is appealing to "luck" to use to fWAR in this case. Santiago has benefitted in the last three seasons from pitching in one of the best pitching parks in all of baseball (definitely top-5) and in front of one of the best defenses in all of baseball (4th by UZR from 2014-2016). Gibson has not had those same benefits, particularly in the case of defense where the Twins have been terrible (2nd worst by UZR in the same timeframe).

Santiago's a fly ball guy too, so you'd think any advantage in PF and OF defense would be amplified. Edited March 21, 2017 by Willihammer

[gocgo]

 

  On 3/21/2017 at 12:57 PM, mrkarbo said:

i think Park is main DH with Vargas platoon with Mauer. Hope they dont block prospects with Vogelsong. Grossman against leftys. Santana 25th man, has speed and can play about anywhere.

I agree, but who gets bumped off the 40 man to make room for Park?  DanSan?  Adrianza?  Tonkin?

 

I think DanSan is to the point of where he either makes the trip north or is gone.

 

Adrianza is out of options.

 

Tonkin shouldn't be on the roster anymore IMO, but replacing a pitcher with a DH on the 40 man probably isn't a popular proposal.