Article: Tyler Jay Shifting To The Bullpen (Minor League Notebook)

[The Wise One]

 

We for some reason decided to give up Alex Meyer for Santiago (and still sent over a boatload of money)

Having Alex Meyer still in the system would have added SP depth, and actually would have been SP depth that could help this team for more than just one year of overpaying a guy like Santiago.

 

The word could  is not the same as would.  Meyer might not beat out Bud Norris . So far this spring he is not missing as many bats when he actually gets the ball over the plate.  That he could be better than Santiago at this point is more wishful thinking based on what is becoming  mythical upside    Slegers or Wheeler at this time would appear more likely to be an asset than Meyer.

[The Wise One]

 

This is it for me. Our starters had an ERA over 5 last year. And Ervin was in the mid 3's and likely isn't apart of the next good rotation. So Romero is a piece. We can throw out other names and hope pick 1-1 is a stud. But we lost some of the lottery tickets this week. The rotation is still a long ways off.

Santiago regresses to his career average for ERA. Hughes is no longer injured, Dufrey reverts  closer to his  2015 form, That takes care of most of your issues as you ignore the simple fact and the lion's share of IP that contributed to the problem,  Nolasco, Albers, Millone, Dean, and Meyer,  are no longer with the team.

[The Wise One]

 

I think a Santiago vs. Nolasco comparison would be a more accurate indicator of who won that trade. So far it looks like LA. I was thrilled to see that Nolasco was traded last summer until I read the details of the trade. With the arbitration contract they gave Santiago and the 4 million they're paying LA this season the two are basically the same price (12 - 12.5 million). The Twins literally just swapped starting pitchers and the price to do it was giving up a former top prospect who even if he flames out as a starter (and so far he has) could still be a valuable bullpen piece. I have a hard time looking at this trade and saying the Twins got the better end of it. 

If he can't make it as a starter the same issue would follow him to the bullpen and hence the same results

 

[drjim]

 

You might have to trade some of that young positional depth for an ace starting pitcher, because outside of Romero that talent doesn't currently exist in Twins camp either MLB or MiLB.  Gonsalves is a #3/4 type same goes for Berrios, Meijia is a #4/5, Jorge is a #4/5, Stewart is an enigma.  Don't be shocked if the Twins concentrate heavily on pitching in the 2017 draft.

 

Outside of Dozier/Polanco, they are unlikely to have meaningful depth at any mlb position over the next couple of years, and they still need a SS and C long term (though I have some hopes for Gordon). Just going to need to restock talent everywhere.

 

At the very least, looking like a pitcher 1.1, so that's a start.

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't disagree, but that's just one guy.   We need more than that.

We don't have anyone - today - that has #1/2 potential but that's somewhat rare. Berrios was our last guy with that kind of ceiling and a lot of people had him pegged as more a #3 type. But Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart and Jay were all on somebody's top 100 list just this offseason. And even with Jay moving to the pen, they still have some upside there (plus Thorpe and some pretty young arms in the low minors that are too far away today). I'm bummed that Jay is being moved but at the same time I think the angst is a bit overblown. We know that not every draft pick will reach it's ceiling although we don't know which ones won't.

[tobi0040]

Santiago regresses to his career average for ERA. Hughes is no longer injured, Dufrey reverts closer to his 2015 form, That takes care of most of your issues as you ignore the simple fact and the lion's share of IP that contributed to the problem, Nolasco, Albers, Millone, Dean, and Meyer, are no longer with the team.

This is beyond incredibly optimistic. For one, Duffey likely is done starting. Santiago's peripherals have always been worse than his ERA. And Hughes may never be fully healthy. We should revisit this in a year. also we should note Ervin reverting would be a negative vs last year.

Edited March 22, 2017 by tobi0040

[gunnarthor]

 

This is beyond incredibly optimistic. For one, Duffey likely is done starting. Santiago's peripherals have always been worse than his ERA. And Hughes may never be fully healthy. We should revisit this in a year. also we should note Ervin reverting would be a negative vs last year.

Sure but he's right that the positive regression of guys like Gibson and Santiago should outweigh the negative regression Santana will have.

 

Nolasco, Meyer, Dean, Milone and Albers combined for 45 starts last year. Duffey had another 26.  That's a lot of new starts to be made by new pitchers this year. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Weren't were just told that the system was fine, and we shouldn't worry about the prospects? So confused....

Depth wise the system is "fine" but if you're wanting that "ace" pitcher you're going to have to go outside the organization.  Because as it currently stands that's something the club is lacking but then again so are many (not everyone is either the Mets or Braves system).  The Twins' system is full of #3/4 SP and that's not a bad thing, if two (Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, May, Jorge, Mejia) turn out that saves the club money to spend elsewhere.  I'm sure once the fire sale begins, young cost controlled SP will be Falvey/Levine's concentration when shopping Dozier and Santana so all the hem hawing over not having impact SP should be moot.

 

I mean are we having this conversation and angst still if DeLeon was in the Twins organization and Jay was shipped to the pen?  

Edited March 22, 2017 by Bob Sacamento

[Mike Sixel]

 

Depth wise the system is "fine" but if you're wanting that "ace" pitcher you're going to have to go outside the organization.  Because as it currently stands that's something the club is lacking but then again so are many (not everyone is either the Mets or Braves system).  The Twins' system is full of #3/4 SP and that's not a bad thing, if two (Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, May, Jorge, Mejia) turn out that saves the club money to spend elsewhere.  I'm sure once the fire sale begins, young cost controlled SP will be Falvey/Levine's concentration when shopping Dozier and Santana so all the hem hawing over not having impact SP should be moot.

 

I mean are we having this conversation and angst still if DeLeon was in the Twins organization and Jay was shipped to the pen?  

 

I would still be disappointed that jay was being moved off of starting already, but I can't speak for others. A decision can be both correct, and disappointing...

[markos]

 

Sure but he's right that the positive regression of guys like Gibson and Santiago should outweigh the negative regression Santana will have.

 

Nolasco, Meyer, Dean, Milone and Albers combined for 45 starts last year. Duffey had another 26.  That's a lot of new starts to be made by new pitchers this year. 

Santiago will have positive regression if he is allowed pitch in Anaheim's ballpark and in front of their defense. I mean, he had home run issues in Anaheim. I think a sub-5.00 ERA from him is unlikely.

[gunnarthor]

 

Santiago will have positive regression if he is allowed pitch in Anaheim's ballpark and in front of their defense. I mean, he had home run issues in Anaheim. I think a sub-5.00 ERA from him is unlikely.

Well, we'll see.  I do think that if he's running out a 5.00 ERA after ten starts (at the most), we'd see him moved/cut for Mejia.  But I don't think we'd see another 20 starts like that like we had with Nolasco last year.

[drjim]

 

Santiago will have positive regression if he is allowed pitch in Anaheim's ballpark and in front of their defense. I mean, he had home run issues in Anaheim. I think a sub-5.00 ERA from him is unlikely.

 

He's only had one season with an ERA above 4. I understand your point, but unlikely to have a sub-5.00 seems like a stretch, and is selling Santiago a little short.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I would still be disappointed that jay was being moved off of starting already, but I can't speak for others. A decision can be both correct, and disappointing...

Hey I'm in the same boat with you, I'd prefer to see him fail first as a starter before sending him to the pen but I'm that way with most prospect SP.  But I do see what the FO is trying to do, as Jay could be pitching in the big leagues now in a relief capacity.

 

 

BA 2017 Scouting Report on Jay

 

 

With his mid-90s fastball and hard, late-breaking 88-92 mph slider, Jay has two big league quality pitches that give him a high floor as a potential closer. As a starter, he features a four-pitch mix, flashing an above-average curveball and mixing in a changeup that has proven effective against righthanded hitters. Evaluators question whether the modest-framed Jay has the physicality to sustain his stuff in extended work. Though electric in short stints, he wasn’t as sharp the second and third time through lineups in 2016. Whether Jay will ever build that durability is a divisive topic among scouts. The Twins remain committed to developing Jay as a starter, and he should return to Chattanooga in 2017. However, with the major league club in need of arms, he could at least begin his major league career out of the bullpen

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

If he can't make it as a starter the same issue would follow him to the bullpen and hence the same results

So failed starter = failed reliever? 

 

Couldn't disagree more with that take.

[TheLeviathan]

 

We don't have anyone - today - that has #1/2 potential but that's somewhat rare. Berrios was our last guy with that kind of ceiling and a lot of people had him pegged as more a #3 type. But Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart and Jay were all on somebody's top 100 list just this offseason. And even with Jay moving to the pen, they still have some upside there (plus Thorpe and some pretty young arms in the low minors that are too far away today). I'm bummed that Jay is being moved but at the same time I think the angst is a bit overblown. We know that not every draft pick will reach it's ceiling although we don't know which ones won't.

 

I'm not hung up on whether they are a 1/2, I'm hung up on how many guys are anywhere near being viable contributors to the big league rotation in the next 2 years.  

 

Prior to this move it was Gonsalves, Romero, and Jay.  (Stewart is a ways off, if even worth talking about)  We're down 1/3 of that already.  And another 1/3 of that is having a shoulder flare up.

 

We are burning service time on some of our best young players and that is our situation for young pitching.  I'd say the angst is appropriate.

[jsteve96]

Jay and Rosario moving to the pen convinces me the Twins will never bring up a good LH starter, Gonsalves will be moved to the pen before ya know it folks.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

So failed starter = failed reliever? 

 

Couldn't disagree more with that take.

That's not at all what he said.

Alex Meyer has issues on the mound. His WHIP in MLB has not yet ever been acceptable.

Moving him to the pen is not going to keep him from giving up hit and walks.

[KirbyDome89]

 

That's not at all what he said.

Alex Meyer has issues on the mound. His WHIP in MLB has not yet ever been acceptable.

Moving him to the pen is not going to keep him from giving up hit and walks.

"Moving him to the pen is not going to keep him from giving up hit and walks"

 

So then its exactly what was said? Coming in from the bullpen for one inning, throwing your 2 plus pitches, and hopefully facing 3 batters is different than trying to work through a lineup 3-4 times as a starter. Very different. I would urge you to take a look at a list of successful relievers who struggled as starting pitchers or if you don't want to do any digging just call to mind the last few dominant relievers the Twins had. 

[The Wise One]

 

So failed starter = failed reliever? 

 

Couldn't disagree more with that take.

What would make him a failed starter would make him fail as a reliever.   If he can't locate his pitches as a starter, he won't  locate any better as a reliever. If the 100 mph fastball is hittable because he throws it over the plate, 102 mph will suffer the same fate.  Meyer is a case where a failed starter would equal a failed reliever. 

[The Wise One]

 

"Moving him to the pen is not going to keep him from giving up hit and walks"

 

So then its exactly what was said? Coming in from the bullpen for one inning, throwing your 2 plus pitches, and hopefully facing 3 batters is different than trying to work through a lineup 3-4 times as a starter. Very different. I would urge you to take a look at a list of successful relievers who struggled as starting pitchers or if you don't want to do any digging just call to mind the last few dominant relievers the Twins had. 

You would have a valid point except the MLB hitters were getting to him first time through the rotation, not the 2/3 time through. 

Perkins improved his fb velocity being a reliever . I can't recall any  starter who had a plus plus fastball and slider but had control problems really succeeding as a reliever. The struggling starter becomes a better pitcher as a reliever because they end up with an above average fb rather than a below average one.

[KirbyDome89]

 

What would make him a failed starter would make him fail as a reliever.   If he can't locate his pitches as a starter, he won't  locate any better as a reliever. If the 100 mph fastball is hittable because he throws it over the plate, 102 mph will suffer the same fate.  Meyer is a case where a failed starter would equal a failed reliever. 

Meh, there is a big difference between trying to paint corners with a 4 pitch mix and throwing your two plus pitches out of the pen. 

 

You would have a valid point except the MLB hitters were getting to him first time through the rotation, not the 2/3 time through. 

Perkins improved his fb velocity being a reliever . I can't recall any  starter who had a plus plus fastball and slider but had control problems really succeeding as a reliever. The struggling starter becomes a better pitcher as a reliever because they end up with an above average fb rather than a below average one.

Like I said, check some former Twins relievers, namely Joe Nathan's K/BB during his minor league career. He isn't throwing max velocity as a starter. No pitcher has the stamina to pitch that way over the course of a game. Moving to the pen would add mph to his fastball. 

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW talked about Jay for some length today.

 

Mostly he is surprised that the new leadership didn't see him in person some before deciding, and in general that it happened so quickly. Not ripping them, just surprised.

[Steve Lein]

 

BA 2017 Scouting Report on Jay
Quote
With his mid-90s fastball and hard, late-breaking 88-92 mph slider, Jay has two big league quality pitches that give him a high floor as a potential closer. As a starter, he features a four-pitch mix, flashing an above-average curveball and mixing in a changeup that has proven effective against righthanded hitters. Evaluators question whether the modest-framed Jay has the physicality to sustain his stuff in extended work. Though electric in short stints, he wasn’t as sharp the second and third time through lineups in 2016. Whether Jay will ever build that durability is a divisive topic among scouts. The Twins remain committed to developing Jay as a starter, and he should return to Chattanooga in 2017. However, with the major league club in need of arms, he could at least begin his major league career out of the bullpen

 

I like how I got ridiculed for saying similar things as the scouting report here does. I was told my "bullpen stalwart" floor was a ridiculous by several!