Article: Tyler Jay Shifting To The Bullpen (Minor League Notebook)

[tobi0040]

If La Velle's recent article is accurate this move was made primarily to get him to the majors quicker.

 

Prioritizing the 2017 bullpen over the 2018 rotation is a huge mistake in my opinion. We could have had 6 Andrew Millers last year and not sniffed the playoffs. Likely the same this year too.

[tobi0040]

If La Velle's recent article is accurate this move was made primarily to get him to the majors quicker.

 

Prioritizing the 2017 bullpen over the 2018 rotation is a huge mistake in my opinion. We could have had 6 Andrew Millers last year and not sniffed the playoffs. Likely the same this year too.

[D.C Twins]

 

Ok, so you can say you don't like the SP depth in the minors. Fine. Calling this a "major setback" is false, it doesn't really change the outlook much. 

 

I think the truth is somewhere in between.  This is not the end of any hope to build a winning team. BUT it most certainly matters. Jay was 1 of 2 pitchers (see Romero) in the system with the talent to be a #1 or #2 starter. The Twins will never cough up the 150+ mil a year for an ACE in FA. Having 2 high end starters is very important to actually being successful IF a team makes the playoffs.

 

I think this changes the outlook of having a SUCCESSFUL playoff team somewhere between some to kind-of-a-lot.

[Mike Sixel]

Terrible return for that pick. And the scouts and guys making the picks are still here, right?

[Mike Sixel]

A front office that looks to have zero rookies make a roster from a100 loss team, is now too fast track guys? Based on what evidence from their actions?

[Bark's Lounge]

I certainly agree that Jay looks like a wasted six pick. I feel strongly this is what Jay wanted for his own more guaranteed outlook. Money is money and the shut down relievers are getting paid these days. His outlook is probably more in line with "This experiment is going to set me years behind getting to the Majors and who knows if it will fricking work?"

 

It's a dream job whether you are a reliever or a starter. The above standard starters do not come around often and I can certainly see how he could have his doubts about being able to make that transition with a favorable outcome. Obviously this is all speculation on my part, but if it is true, put yourself in his shoes.

 

I don't want to piss and moan about it because he is a Ryan pick. Certainly Johnson is still in the poll position, but who knows what he has to deal with from other talking heads on draft day.

 

I want to give Falvey a fair chance over the next few years to change what we are griping over today. I have no reason to date not to trust his philosophy.

[tobi0040]

I think you are seeing frustration.

 

This team will either right the ship or not based on starting pitching and this week we lost May for 2 years and Jay is moving to the pen. And it looks their could be some concern about Gonsalves shoulder.

 

The bigger issue for me is the process. I want good logical decisions by the front office. If they are passing on a potential good starter in 2018 for a good reliever next year when we arent playing for much, it is a concern for me.

[drjim]

The more I think about it the more the move probably makes sense to me. With his shortened season, it is realistically going to take until 2019, and probably 2020, before he can be built up to handle an entire season's workload as a starter. And that's assuming that everything going forward goes on without a significant hiccup (which is unlikely over 2 years).

 

Contra some others, I don't mind the strategy of drafting college relievers and trying to turn them into starters if they have multiple pitches and the right frame (such as Duffey). But that has to be done for people taken after the 3rd round at the earliest. The #6 pick is just way too high risk and way too much lost value to be messing around with this with.

 

Do think if he stays healthy good chance we'll see him later this year. Not a wasted pick, but a huge blunder overall.

[drjim]

 

I think you are seeing frustration.

This team will either right the ship or not based on starting pitching and this week we lost May for 2 years and Jay is moving to the pen. And it looks their could be some concern about Gonsalves shoulder.

The bigger issue for me is the process. I want good logical decisions by the front office. If they are passing on a potential good starter in 2018 for a good reliever next year when we arent playing for much, it is a concern for me.

 

At this point it would be very difficult for him to handle a full season in 2018, probably not even 2019.

[drjim]

 

A front office that looks to have zero rookies make a roster from a100 loss team, is now too fast track guys? Based on what evidence from their actions?

 

None of this has anything to do with the other. And citing rookies is arbitrary. They'll have at least 6 everyday guys with less than 2 full years, likely 1 starter with less than a year (possibly even a rookie!), and a couple young relievers too (maybe even another rookie!). Very young team.

[laloesch]

This is just depressing. First May needing TJ and then this flop, a draft pick specifically made because they thought they could convert him back to a starter. Just par for the course under the Ryan regime. Like i said in another thread the Twins better pray for rain this season and hope Thorpe, Gonsalves, Stewart take a big step forward.

Edited March 20, 2017 by laloesch

[tobi0040]

When Jay gets to the majors should not be a strong factor. This is a 59 win team that added Jason Castro. 2018 should not matter at all.

 

He had 84 innings last year. 30 percent more for two years gives him over 140 in 2018. We could easily have him be the long man for 1-2 months in 2018 and end the season in the rotation.

 

I am more concerned about the lefty with two good pitches the future rotation lost.

[drjim]

 

When Jay gets to the majors should not be a strong factor. This is a 59 win team that added Jason Castro. 2018 should not matter at all.

He had 84 innings last year. 30 percent more for two years gives him over 140 in 2018. We could easily have him be the long man for 1-2 months in 2018 and end the season in the rotation.

I am more concerned about the lefty with two good pitches the future rotation lost.

 

He has also gotten hurt the last two years. And he's still not close in 2018 to what you want in a starter. A whole lot of things would have to go right for him to make it, they are making a cold rational decision.

[DJSim22]

 

Average draft position, not rank of drafting accumen.

 

Thanks, I misread it. 

[twinssouth]

I don't get it, Johnson has been in charge of these drafts and I believe they recently promoted him

[DaveW]

I don't get it, Johnson has been in charge of these drafts and I believe they recently promoted him

All goes in line with my earlier point: Ryan in his first stint here had the front office clicking on all cyclinders more or less, something happened org wise when Ryan stepped down the first time, and they haven't recovered really since.

 

I do wish they would have just cleaned house from top to bottom, instead of bringing in a few new guys and promoting others in some sort of half measure. Makes me very worried about the future, and makes me wonder if it's going to take an ownsership change at this point to make a big diff

[Danchat]

I'm not buying the "Jay will become a starter later" story that some here are believing in. After he reaches the majors as a reliever, when's he going to get the time to ramp up all those innings in order to be a starter? After reading the prospect previews here about Jay, I can see that the writing was on the wall - this guy is most likely going to end up as a reliever, so let's put him on the right path. Maybe he can be a dominating closer one day. Maybe this can prevent him from getting TJ surgery at some point? Probably not, but our 1st rounders seem to be susceptible to that injury...

 

Also if it's true that Perkins is topping out at 78 mph right now, that's not good. I know he wants to work his butt off and earn that $6.5M he's getting for 2017, but he's probably toast. You just don't come back from that injury the same.

[tobi0040]

He has gotten hurt, but is a neck injury one that would be caused by him starting vs relieving? I am not an expert but I doubt it.

 

A 3.10 ERA with a k per inning in his first year as a starter, seems like a decent transition.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I think the truth is somewhere in between.  This is not the end of any hope to build a winning team. BUT it most certainly matters. Jay was 1 of 2 pitchers (see Romero) in the system with the talent to be a #1 or #2 starter. 

What evidence is there of this being true? Honest question. His numbers last year were OK for a college first-rounder in Single-A, nothing more. He has two excellent pitches – which played down in a starting role – and beyond that, meh. What gives him the makeup of a #1 or #2 starter in your mind?  

 

The Twins might be painting this publicly as a move toward getting him to the majors faster, or a capitulation to his desires, but they wouldn't be doing it if they believed he had a good chance to become a 1/2 starter. I guarantee you that. 

[DaveW]

 

What evidence is there of this being true? Honest question. His numbers last year were OK for a college first-rounder in Single-A, nothing more. He has two excellent pitches – which played down in a starting role – and beyond that, meh. What gives him the makeup of a #1 or #2 starter in your mind?  

 

The Twins might be painting this publicly as a move toward getting him to the majors faster, or a capitulation to his desires, but they wouldn't be doing it if they believed he had a good chance to become a 1/2 starter. I guarantee you that. 

If he didn't have the "stuff" to potentially be a #1/#2 SP, why on earth would you spend the 6th pick in the draft on him to begin with?  

Also if they drafted him knowing this was going to be the likely outcome (a RP) then it's one of the worst decisions in recent draft history.

Also his numbers and "look" last year in A+ was pretty solid overall (2.85 ERA in 13 starts, 8.8 k/9 etc) sorry that's pretty good, even for a college pitcher I wish we had more guys putting up those numbers that you would just consider "ok".

Just seems so counterproductive to move him off of SP already...unless they knew this was going to happen the entire time?

Edited March 20, 2017 by DaveW

[drjim]

All goes in line with my earlier point: Ryan in his first stint here had the front office clicking on all cyclinders more or less, something happened org wise when Ryan stepped down the first time, and they haven't recovered really since.

 

I do wish they would have just cleaned house from top to bottom, instead of bringing in a few new guys and promoting others in some sort of half measure. Makes me very worried about the future, and makes me wonder if it's going to take an ownsership change at this point to make a big diff

They still might clean house. I think that is a very difficult thing to pull off in an offseason.

 

There might be some talent in the front office too that needed to be resourced or empowered. There is wisdom in hanging back for a stretch, evaluate what you have, and then make changes. I suspect some of the moves will start trickling out throughout the season.

[markos]

 

Keep in mind that this list INCLUDES Mauer who was drafted in 2001, Span in 2002, and Plouffe and Perkins in 2004. Since then it's been pretty abysmal, Garza was a solid pick of course, but we decided to trade him away of course. Also this proves the point that drafting will make or break your team. There is a reason why the Twins were able to win all those division titles: because they were able to make some good picks. Since 2005 or so though, it's been a disaster overall.

If you were to look at the last 10 years of draft picks, the Twins would likely be one of the very worst in baseball. Buxton, Gordon, Stewart of course could help this out a lot, but other than them? It's been pretty pathetic.

I ran some numbers a few months ago, and even when normalizing for draft position, the Twins from 2006-2011 were 27th or 28th in the league as far as draft results. It has been pathetic.

[old nurse]

 

This is not a ranking of clubs and how they have done in the draft. This is showing how particular slots have fared and who is picking at that slot, since it was a 2016 article this is the draft order of the 2016 draft. Does anyone have actual results of how the Twins have done? I would bet it's not the worst but we could sure be better

The  chart states that the Twins drafted  2 superior players and 3 successful player and 6 busts. Each term was defined and results for each team.  Inspection of those numbers on the list would allow you to make your own judgments

 

[beckmt]

Lots of angst here, not without reason.  All of us are disappointed by the news, but I am willing to give the new FO the benefit of the doubt on this move.  Rogers and Breslow are not shutdown relievers so I would expect that Jay if he preforms will be here midseason with this move.  Kansas City model may have to be the one used by the Twins to get to the next level.  We have the shutdown relievers coming faster than the starters.  Falvey had a great bullpen in Cleveland, maybe that is what he sees as the path here. 

This is a new regime, you can blame the old one, but it is water over the dam.  Give it a chance.

I am far more concerned with the starting staff this year and that direction than other things.

[drjim]

Breslow seems like a good bridge to Jay in this scenario.

[Steve Lein]

 

Yeesh, let's scale back the "wasted pick" grumbling. An overpowering lefty bullpen fireman is a very valuable piece. Did you all sleep through the playoffs last year?

 

Is it an ideal outcome for a 6th overall draft pick? No, but I bet half of the others taken among the Top 10 of that draft will end up yielding less MLB value than Jay will if he reaches the level we're hoping he can. 

 

The story here isn't that the Twins blew it with a draft pick 2 years ago. It's a sunk cost and that GM is gone. The story is that the new regime is being proactive and making the right move to facilitate the fastest possible impact from Jay. 

 

This whole thing is not that big of a deal to me, so I agree a lot with this take. I like it if it gets him to the bigs faster.

 

Since people have been comparing him to other player's in that draft, of the pitchers in the 1st round, only Carson Fulmer has pitched in the bigs (worse than Berrios, I might add). And that was for the White Sox, who don't really care about a players MiLB numbers when they promote. Fulmer would have finished last year in AA for the Twins as a comparison (His AAA ERA was nearly 4.00, at AA was over 5.00).

 

Dillon Tate isn't even out of A-ball and is being labeled a bust already. Kolby Allard pitched in low-A last year. James Kaprielian is in A-ball. Brady Aiken is in A-ball. Phil Bickford is in A-ball. Who is Ashe Russell?! Who is Beau Burrows?! Walker Buehler has barely even pitched as a pro.

 

That's every single pitcher from the 1st round in 2015. Jay has worked out fine so far, to me, even if they're shifting him to the pen. Don't think the Twins were considering Benintendi all that much given who they had coming up. Don't think he'd be in the majors already with them either.

 

The floor here is a bullpen stalwart (he's got more to work with than Glen Perkins ever had, as a comparison), and there is a ton of value in those types now and that's actually a pretty high floor.

 

I don't necessarily think this signals an end to starting in the future, either. But if it is, I'm still excited for him in the 'pen.

[Mike Sixel]

The FLOOR of a player that has barely pitched in AA is a great bullpen piece? I don't think so.

 

edit: of a player that has been injured so much he had to be shut down?

Edited March 20, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[drjim]

The FLOOR of a player that has barely pitched in AA is a great bullpen piece? I don't think so.

 

edit: of a player that has been injured so much he had to be shut down?

Clearly that's the floor. Jay should break camp in the bigs as the 8th inning guy setting up Chargois.

[Vanimal46]

 

Clearly that's the floor. Jay should break camp in the bigs as the 8th inning guy setting up Chargois.

 

Now you're getting it. 

[twinsfanstreif]

The chart states that the Twins drafted 2 superior players and 3 successful player and 6 busts. Each term was defined and results for each team. Inspection of those numbers on the list would allow you to make your own judgments

Again the chart is talking about draft slot. The order is the 2016 draft order and for the 1st pick overall it has 6 "superior" players and 5 busts, that seems accurate for the 1st pick and not for the Phillies who have statistically been one of the worst drafting team over the past 15 years, they did get Utley and Hammels for those years but not much else. If it is a ranking why are the Yankee's at #18 if they have had 11 busts? (the years stated the Yankee's didn't do well but got Hughes and Kennedy which you could at the very least call successful). Also it says 11 busts for the Rangers who drafted Teixeira in one of the years stated. Plus this statement is in the article before the list "A last little bit of fun. For the recent draft, I wanted to point out which organizations were selecting in a spot that may not yield quite the results that they are hoping for."