Article: Tyler Jay Shifting To The Bullpen (Minor League Notebook)

[Seth Stohs]

 

He's a #5 basically. You need to do better with your first round picks.

 

15 of the 21 players drafted ahead of Gibson in 2009 have a bWAR less than his. So... as much as we'd like an "ace" or an All Star hitter, it's just not gonna happen very often. Even with "first round picks." 

 

Four of those 21 never got to the big leagues, and four others have a negative bWAR in very brief MLB time. 

[mazeville]

The Twins could have had Andrew Benintendi with that pick. I know that drafting in the major leagues is far from a perfect science. But you have to do better with the sixth pick than a guy you *think* could be converted to a starter. 

 

It's yet another piece of evidence that the previous administration needed to go. Tyler Jay was one of the best hopes that the string of high draft picks would ultimately bear more fruit than their rankings would indicate. Now he's a reliever. He could be a damn good reliever. But a reliever nonetheless.

 

That said, I don't mind this move. The current administration should not think in terms of saving the reputation of picks it did not make, and should do what's best for the player and the team for the long run. If Tyler Jay makes more sense as a reliever, then Tyler Jay should be a reliever.

[Nick Nelson]

Yeesh, let's scale back the "wasted pick" grumbling. An overpowering lefty bullpen fireman is a very valuable piece. Did you all sleep through the playoffs last year?

 

Is it an ideal outcome for a 6th overall draft pick? No, but I bet half of the others taken among the Top 10 of that draft will end up yielding less MLB value than Jay will if he reaches the level we're hoping he can. 

 

The story here isn't that the Twins blew it with a draft pick 2 years ago. It's a sunk cost and that GM is gone. The story is that the new regime is being proactive and making the right move to facilitate the fastest possible impact from Jay. 

[Vanimal46]

LEN3 posted an article about Jay this morning.

 

What it's really all about is:

 

1. Innings

2. Fast Track to MLB

 

Not enough of the first, Fast Track = RP.

 

And, there's also this [from the article]:

 

"There's another lefthander in camp who is rehabbing from shoulder surgery, and the process has been meticulously slow. His last outing, he touched 78 mph on the gun. There is no telling when he will be able to help the Twins. He's in the last year of his contract, making 2017 possibly his swan song."

 

So, I guess it's really about 3 things.....

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/Twins_Insider/

I think it's short sighted to claim "fast tracking" as a primary reason for moving him to the bullpen. They already have 20 options to sort through, and sooo many good veterans already that not even Chargois will make the roster.

 

In regards to the Perkins update, wow. Stick a fork in him.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier, Brett Cecil....to name a few.

Just because Revere has been around 9 years doesn't make him a good or even close to a good player.

Juan Castro somehow played 17 years for instance.

 

I guess I would argue that Ben Revere being in the big leagues for nine years says a lot. And, while he was bad the last couple of years, his best years came with the Twins and provided a lot of value. I would then say that they traded him at just the right time too. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Id be very curious to hear how Terry Ryan is being graded in the minds of falvey and Levine.

 

I would say probably pretty highly for his scouting acumen, and such... 

 

But we need to remember that Deron Johnson ran the drafts... Not Terry. Johnson's already been "promoted." 

[DJSim22]

 

Twins were in the middle for drafting in the first round

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

Indians 14th, Twins 15th, Rangers 30th.  Small sample size, but any reason to be at least slightly concerned by this?

[DaveW]

 

Sale was also a college starter and was expected to be a starter.

Didn't remember this until I just looked it up. They promoted him to the majors 2 months after drafting him... That's insane.

Yeah, it's a completely different scenario.

A better comparison would be if the Twins decided to put Berrios in the pen for a year or so instead. Berrios was always viewed as a starter and always was a starter.

Jay apparently wasn't "good" enough to be considered a starter for a middle of the road college baseball conference. I think he still has plenty of upside and can be an asset, but you absolutely should NOT be drafting college relief pitchers in the first round of the draft, even more so when you are talking about a top 10 pick. The Twins seemingly have been trying this "college RP----> ML starter" bit for a while now, and it hasn't worked out at all.

You need to be looking for guys that can be #1/#2 type starters in the first round, or guys that can be heart of the lineup type players, not settling for relief pitchers or 4th OF types.

[DaveW]

 

Indians 14th, Twins 15th, Rangers 30th.  Small sample size, but any reason to be at least slightly concerned by this?

Keep in mind that this list INCLUDES Mauer who was drafted in 2001, Span in 2002, and Plouffe and Perkins in 2004. Since then it's been pretty abysmal, Garza was a solid pick of course, but we decided to trade him away of course. Also this proves the point that drafting will make or break your team. There is a reason why the Twins were able to win all those division titles: because they were able to make some good picks. Since 2005 or so though, it's been a disaster overall.

If you were to look at the last 10 years of draft picks, the Twins would likely be one of the very worst in baseball. Buxton, Gordon, Stewart of course could help this out a lot, but other than them? It's been pretty pathetic.

Edited March 19, 2017 by DaveW

[DaveW]

 

I would say probably pretty highly for his scouting acumen, and such... 

 

But we need to remember that Deron Johnson ran the drafts... Not Terry. Johnson's already been "promoted." 

Johnson may have ran the drafts, but Ryan and co probaly had a lot of say when it came to the first few round picks I imagine (as do most teams)

I do think Ryan was very very very good at scouting and evaluating talent, and it shows with the core he was able to build when the Twins were winning those divisions: Santana, Mauer, Morneau, Span, Hunter, Liriano etc

In fact, I'd say that Ryan was one of the best 5 GM's in all of baseball during his first stint here. Something definitely changed though after he first stepped down, and unfortunately he couldn't re discover the mojo/success. Much like the players on the field, I think managers, GM's, etc also have peaks and decline phases as well (this goes across sports) It's super super super rare to find a coach or GM that can have continued success for 10+ years. (Bill Belicheck, Epstein etc come to mind)

Just like it's super super rare to find a baseball player or NBA player etc who can be effective for 15+ years anymore. I think Ryan ultimately just hit his "decline" phase, and unfortunately there wasn't a lot of other help in the Twins org as well to help ease this.

Edited March 19, 2017 by DaveW

[Deduno Abides]

If they thought Jay had a good chance to be a good starter, they wouldn't have made this move. Now, they hope he can become a more valuable reliever than Taylor Rogers.

 

Next questions:

 

1. Does he go to Chattanooga or Rochester?

2. Is he now in competition against Mason Melotakis?

3. Is he now in competition against John Curtiss?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yeesh, let's scale back the "wasted pick" grumbling. An overpowering lefty bullpen fireman is a very valuable piece. Did you all sleep through the playoffs last year?

 

Is it an ideal outcome for a 6th overall draft pick? No, but I bet half of the others taken among the Top 10 of that draft will end up yielding less MLB value than Jay will if he reaches the level we're hoping he can. 

 

The story here isn't that the Twins blew it with a draft pick 2 years ago. It's a sunk cost and that GM is gone. The story is that the new regime is being proactive and making the right move to facilitate the fastest possible impact from Jay. 

 

We've been reassured all winter that the Twins have lots of future starting options in their minors.  One of those just went down to the bullpen.

 

Wasted pick?  Maybe not.  Major setback for the future of the rotation?  Um...yeah. Big time.

[Lonestar]

Jay was drafted one spot ahead of Andrew Benintendi in 2015, and 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports that the Twins “had very little interest” in the outfielder who is now the game’s consensus number-one prospect.  Notables such as Carson Fulmer and Ian Happ were picked in the next two spots after Benintendi.  In fairness to Minnesota, however, Jay was highly regarded by the major prospect scouting pundits headed into the 2015 draft, so he likely wouldn’t have fallen much further than sixth had the Twins passed.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/twins-news-jay-veterans-stubbs-breslow.html

 

Jay had a high ceiling and still has a high floor -- much higher than the expected value 1-6 picks.

 

Jay was a multi-inning shutdown reliever in college because that was his coach's choice to maximize his value in more than 1 game a week.

 

I liked Benintendi and Happ before the draft but personally picked Jay.  How many of us would have howled if the Twins would have drafted Benintendi with Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler in route and a shortage of frontline starters.

 

 

[old nurse]

 

Just because many picks flop doesnt mean criticism isnt warranted.

The pick of Jay has neither flopped or been a success.

 

[old nurse]

 

Indians 14th, Twins 15th, Rangers 30th.  Small sample size, but any reason to be at least slightly concerned by this?

Average draft position, not rank of drafting accumen.

 

[twinssouth]

Been thinking about this some more, I find it strange that the Agent of a minor leaguer breaks the news that Jay's going to the Pen. Either Jay or the Agent who then convinced Jay to not spend time in the minors but rather fast track to the pen OR they see the Twins sticking with these mediocre starters and not see a future as a starter for a few more years.

 

 

What good is a so called shut down reliever when mediocre starters are being pulled after 5 innings, down say 4 to 1. The shut down reliever or pen comes in, throws zeroes for 4 innings and the Twins still lose, say 4 to 2 or 3. We all know the chances of winning diminish rapidly when starting out from behind and playing catch up.

 

Kansas City supported their starters with power arm shut down relievers. The Twins seem to be doing this in reverse; lets build a pen first, then hope we get decent starters.

 

 

I was in favor of drafting Jay and converting to starter, his college coach said at the time, we should of had him as our starter. Jay and the Twins should of given it ONE more stinking year at Chattanooga and maybe even Rochester. Had he been able to throw say 140 innings, he could of been fast tracked next year. Instead, we now wasted the 6th pick in that draft. As someone said earlier, Perk hitting 78 doesn't look good. Maybe that Agent saw this and started smelling some quicker money.

[Nick Nelson]

 

We've been reassured all winter that the Twins have lots of future starting options in their minors.  One of those just went down to the bullpen.

 

Wasted pick?  Maybe not.  Major setback for the future of the rotation?  Um...yeah. Big time.

I can't vouch for what you're reading elsewhere, but the reassurances about the future rotation options at Twins Daily have never been particularly reliant on Tyler Jay. If you read the prospect profile on him that I wrote a month ago, it was quite clear that he was far more likely to end up in the bullpen than to pan as an SP: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/td-top-prospects-5-tyler-jay-r5367

 

That still leaves the Twins with Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia and Stewart in the Top 10, and I think all are pretty good bets to stick as starters. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I can't vouch for what you're reading elsewhere, but the reassurances about the future rotation options at Twins Daily have never been particularly reliant on Tyler Jay. If you read the prospect profile on him that I wrote a month ago, it was quite clear that he was far more likely to end up in the bullpen than to pan as an SP: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/td-top-prospects-5-tyler-jay-r5367

 

That still leaves the Twins with Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia and Stewart in the Top 10, and I think all are pretty good bets to stick as starters. 

 

Oh....four guys.  What was I thinking?

[DaveW]

 

15 of the 21 players drafted ahead of Gibson in 2009 have a bWAR less than his. So... as much as we'd like an "ace" or an All Star hitter, it's just not gonna happen very often. Even with "first round picks." 

 

Four of those 21 never got to the big leagues, and four others have a negative bWAR in very brief MLB time. 

The problem isn't that Gibson didn't become an Ace, it's that he has been the most "successful" 1st round pick of the Twins over the last 10 years. You can't strike out 9 out of 10 years, and the one year you get a decent player he ends up being a #5

[Nick Nelson]

Ok, so you can say you don't like the SP depth in the minors. Fine. Calling this a "major setback" is false, it doesn't really change the outlook much. 

[DaveW]

 

 

 

That still leaves the Twins with Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia and Stewart in the Top 10, and I think all are pretty good bets to stick as starters. 

Romero has significant injury issues and is still very very far away, additionally he hasn't even thrown 175 innings since he joined the org in 2012. I like the upside no doubt, but he still has a significant "bust" chance as well.

I'm higher on Stewart then most, but he is still far away, and his lack of strike outs thus far in the low minors (5.9 k/9) is cause for some concern when it comes to his ceiling.

I'm also higher on Mejia then most, but he projects to be a #4/#5 type. 

Gonsalves I feel the best about for sure, I am confident that he will be an asset for this starting rotation.

So basically we have one guy in Gonsalves who looks to be a pretty good bet to be an asset for the Twins starting rotation, 2 guys with upside but a lot of question marks (Stewart+Romero) and a guy who is backend type (Mejia)

Seeing how the current Twins rotation is a complete mess, where Berrios may be the only "contributor" for them in 2019 onwards, I'm not sure I am confident that the Twins farm system is going to be able to produce enough SP to help fill out the rotation. Losing Jay from the SP candidate list is a major blow IMO.

If we had the Mets current rotation I don't think people would be as concerned, but our rotation is already in dire straits, we need as many SP arms in the minors as possible!
 

[DaveW]

 

Ok, so you can say you don't like the SP depth in the minors. Fine. Calling this a "major setback" is false, it doesn't really change the outlook much. 

I think it is a major setback personally. As my post above lays out, out then Gonsalvez and Berrios there aren't a whole lot of "cant miss" types in this farm system currently, or at least guys that you can count on to be more than a #4/#5. We are talking about the worst team in baseball over the last 5-6 years, and with one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball during that time. We can't afford to be missing with these sort of high picks this often, especially when said pick was supposed to help the rotation initially. I think bullpen pitchers are important, no doubt, but you can have the greatest 9th inning guy of all time and it won't matter if you are down 8-5 late in games 90+ times a year.

Edited March 19, 2017 by DaveW

[TheLeviathan]

 

Ok, so you can say you don't like the SP depth in the minors. Fine. Calling this a "major setback" is false, it doesn't really change the outlook much. 

 

Perhaps not for you, but plenty of people were counting on him taking a step forward this year.  The "don't fret" thread in particular.  

 

We just moved a guy picked 6th overall from a starting role to the pen.  We're engaging in some pretty awesome gymnastics to not consider that a setback for our young starting pitching. 

[DaveW]

Honest question for the "Jay could become a starter again crowd"

Has there been any cases in the last 20 years where a team drafted a college relief pitcher, brought him up to the mid to high minors as a relief pitcher, then put him as a starter in the majors at some point? With ANY sort of success?

[DocBauer]

First, I am focusing on Jay, and not a 10 year history.

 

Second, I would keep him in the rotation for this season to see what he could accomplish. Whether he would reach his potential as a starter or not we don't know. But the potential is there, and I think it's a mistake to move him this soon.

 

But I don't buy in to any just argument. It was not a good draft when he came out and the Twins fried something a lot of us had complained about for some time: try the upside arm and stop with the safe choices!

 

The new FO office thinks this is the smart choice? Fine. Run with it. I hope he rockets to the Twins and becomes a dominant LHRP. But while this news, the original draft position, etc, may be disappointing, just not going to call it a bust.

[twinsfanstreif]

Twins were in the middle for drafting in the first round

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

This is not a ranking of clubs and how they have done in the draft. This is showing how particular slots have fared and who is picking at that slot, since it was a 2016 article this is the draft order of the 2016 draft.

 

Does anyone have actual results of how the Twins have done? I would bet it's not the worst but we could sure be better

[twinsfanstreif]

This is not a ranking of clubs and how they have done in the draft. This is showing how particular slots have fared and who is picking at that slot, since it was a 2016 article this is the draft order of the 2016 draft.

 

Does anyone have actual results of how the Twins have done? I would bet it's not the worst but we could sure be better

 

This is the best I could find, the article is from 2 years ago but ranks us 26th:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.sportingnews.com/amp/mlb/list/mlb-draft-2015-prospects-rankings-grades-yankees-red-sox-dodgers-phillies-worst-cubs-nationals-best/1q2kzt9abbfa71gv6aofk04mqm

[sftwinsfan]

I guess I don't really buy into the fact that a healthy guy in his early 20's can't throw 150 innings in a season regardless of how little he pitched last year as long as it's monitored well and he's in shape.  For all the rules around how to treat pitchers nowadays combined with better nutrition and monitoring of everything why is that arm injuries seem to be even more common now.  

 

It's definitely a blow to a system that was already thin in every category outside of relief arms, light-hitting middle infielders, and 4th outfielder types.  I was also a little concerned with Molitor's comments the other day about Romero, something about we still think he has potential as a starter.  Not real encouraging.

[gunnarthor]

 

The problem isn't that Gibson didn't become an Ace, it's that he has been the most "successful" 1st round pick of the Twins over the last 10 years. You can't strike out 9 out of 10 years, and the one year you get a decent player he ends up being a #5

I'm not sure this is particularly insightful considering the last ten years covers a large group of prospects still in the minors and most of those were the high draft picks. I do agree that the Johnson drafts have been bad - particularly the stretch from 08-11 - but it's a bit early to really make any final decision (as you have) on, frankly, 2012 forward.

[DaveW]

 

I'm not sure this is particularly insightful considering the last ten years covers a large group of prospects still in the minors and most of those were the high draft picks. I do agree that the Johnson drafts have been bad - particularly the stretch from 08-11 - but it's a bit early to really make any final decision (as you have) on, frankly, 2012 forward.

2016 Alex Kirilloff OF Plum High School (Pittsburgh) 15

TBD, too early to tell.

2015 Tyler Jay LHP Illinois 6

While it's still early for Jay, having him already go back to the pen this quickly is definitely a disappointment.
2014 Nick Gordon SS Olympia HS, Orlando, Fla. 5

TBD: Hopefully this is a breakout year for him
2013 Kohl Stewart RHP St. Pius X High School, Houston 4

TBD: I went over the issues Stewart has above, but as it stands now? Not looking good for a #4 pick

2012 Byron Buxton CF Appling High School, Baxley, Ga. 2

Should be a stud.
2011 Levi Michael SS North Carolina 30

Bust
2010 Alex Wimmers RHP Ohio State 21

Bust
2009 Kyle Gibson RHP Missouri 22

Back end rotation guy
2008 Carlos Gutierrez RHP Univ. of Miami (Fla.) 27

Bust
2008 Aaron Hicks OF Wilson H.S., Long Beach, Calif. 14

Bust
2007 Ben Revere OF Lexington (Ky.) Catholic HS 28

4th OF, one decent year (2012)
2006 Christopher Parmelee OF Chino Hills (Calif.) HS 20
Bust