Article: Tyler Jay Shifting To The Bullpen (Minor League Notebook)

[Kwak]

To me there are two separate issues:  drafting Jay 1-6 and using Jay as a starter or in relief.  Addressing the draft issue is easy--the point is moot, water-under-the-bridge, dunzo.  It was most likely a mistake but the second issue overrides the first now.  If further changes in management are needed to see that this mistake isn't repeated, then make them.  Changing management personnel is separate from what to do with Jay.

 As to what to do with Jay I think that RP is his best role.  Some seem to think a really fast FB is a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.  Sadly, there is insufficient evidence that that is Jay's future but a bevy of evidence that Jay could be very successful in relief.

[SadMinnySportsFan]

wow this is so disappointing IMO. You don't pick a guy #6 overall in the draft to be a reliever. He was suppose to be a starter, you draft a guy that high to be a front end starter. I get the arguments, he was in the bullpen in college, he's more comfortable there yada yada. He now joins a long list of "hard throwing young bullpen arms" that have been talked about what seems like years and the only guy to make to the bigs is JT Chargios. This organization's ineptitude to develop talent, and specifically starting pitching talent, is baffling.

[ALessKosherScott]

I think the bright side is Jay at least has the stuff to be the Twins next elite closer. It's less valuable than a #2 starter, but it's something every good team needs.

[laloesch]

 

If he didn't have the "stuff" to potentially be a #1/#2 SP, why on earth would you spend the 6th pick in the draft on him to begin with?  

Also if they drafted him knowing this was going to be the likely outcome (a RP) then it's one of the worst decisions in recent draft history.

Also his numbers and "look" last year in A+ was pretty solid overall (2.85 ERA in 13 starts, 8.8 k/9 etc) sorry that's pretty good, even for a college pitcher I wish we had more guys putting up those numbers that you would just consider "ok".

Just seems so counterproductive to move him off of SP already...unless they knew this was going to happen the entire time?

 

I was about to echo the same thing.  WTH were the Twins scouts and FO thinking drafting this guy with the #6 pick?  Stupid if you ask me.  Sorry to sound harsh, but this screams incompetence.  The conversion of RP's to successful meaningful starters is not great to begin with.  Why put yourself behind the eight ball in the first place and draft a square peg and try and ram it into a round hole?  

 

Edit:  I can see this gamble with later picks but a top 10 first round pick? 

Edited March 20, 2017 by laloesch

[laloesch]

 

I'm not buying the "Jay will become a starter later" story that some here are believing in. After he reaches the majors as a reliever, when's he going to get the time to ramp up all those innings in order to be a starter? After reading the prospect previews here about Jay, I can see that the writing was on the wall - this guy is most likely going to end up as a reliever, so let's put him on the right path. Maybe he can be a dominating closer one day. Maybe this can prevent him from getting TJ surgery at some point? Probably not, but our 1st rounders seem to be susceptible to that injury...

 

Also if it's true that Perkins is topping out at 78 mph right now, that's not good. I know he wants to work his butt off and earn that $6.5M he's getting for 2017, but he's probably toast. You just don't come back from that injury the same.

 

If he's only hitting 78mph on his fastball right now that's game over for Perk.  Torn Labrum is a very difficult surgery on a pitcher.

[gunnarthor]

The obvious reason they drafted Jay was that they thought he could make the transition to the rotation, as did many draft gurus.  

[Mike Sixel]

Lots of experts felt Jay had the stuff to be a legit MLB starter. He's not like most RP from college, imo. I'll cut them some slack for thinking he could maybe become a starter.

 

That said, it seems early in the process to make this change. Also, if he does become one of the best RPs in MLB, that would be great. But to say that's his floor is, imo, premature.

[nicksaviking]

 

What evidence is there of this being true? Honest question. His numbers last year were OK for a college first-rounder in Single-A, nothing more. He has two excellent pitches – which played down in a starting role – and beyond that, meh. What gives him the makeup of a #1 or #2 starter in your mind?  

 

The Twins might be painting this publicly as a move toward getting him to the majors faster, or a capitulation to his desires, but they wouldn't be doing it if they believed he had a good chance to become a 1/2 starter. I guarantee you that. 

 

If for some reason they had some kind of Chris Sale comp in mind I could see them doing it. Maybe there's a development angle we're not privy to. Unlikely, but we're largely in the dark on this one.  I'm not a huge fan of the move but I will admit that doing this right now raises many fewer red flags than if they did it mid-season.

 

Not that there still aren't plenty of red flags. I just really hope this isn't all driven by Jay. Say, he prefers closing but knows he's not getting drafted high if he doesn't tell teams he wants to start. Probably not the case but it's lingering in the back of my mind.

[tobi0040]

In my eyes, the front office loses a little credibility from the stand point that they were supposed to excel at developing pitching talent. If they don't think they can turn a lefty with a plus fastball and slider, with a four pitch mix into a frontline starter than who can they turn into one?

[gunnarthor]

 

In my eyes, the front office loses a little credibility from the stand point that they were supposed to excel at developing pitching talent. If they don't think they can turn a lefty with a plus fastball and slider, with a four pitch mix into a frontline starter than who can they turn into one?

Yeah, that's one worry I had.  I wonder if it's just the player and his agent pushing something that gets him to the majors faster or if the FO really thinks the payoff for him being a reliever over the risk of trying to make him a starter is worth it.

[KirbyDome89]

So they drafted him at #6 because he had the "stuff," to be a front of the rotation piece. Now they're moving him back to the bullpen because he doesn't have the enough of a mix to be a starter. But this doesn't look like a bad pick and the move doesn't have any negative impact on future rotations? Hmmm....those don't seem to mesh.

 

I'm not sure which is more taxing; the mental gymnastics performed to rationalize the move or the physical toll from bending over backwards to defend it. 

[ALessKosherScott]

 

In my eyes, the front office loses a little credibility from the stand point that they were supposed to excel at developing pitching talent. If they don't think they can turn a lefty with a plus fastball and slider, with a four pitch mix into a frontline starter than who can they turn into one?

 

We'll find that out as they bring their own guys into the system.

[Dr. Evil]

Changes like this are to be expected as the new leadership gains familiarity with all the players.

 

Their willingness to direct some real in house talent towards a bullpen that in the past was largely a scrap heap of recycled players gets me excited. It shows that a dominant bullpen is on their radar screen and not an afterthought as in the past.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Rosario likely isn't on the Twins future radar, I'd assume? Is there something obvious with his pitch repertoire that he could do in the pen that would somehow improve his K% DRASTICALLY? I just don't seem him as (useful) MLB bullpen arm.

[tobi0040]

They need to draft their own guys in order to develop them? Someone call me in 5 years....

[Nick Nelson]

 

So they drafted him at #6 because he had the "stuff," to be a front of the rotation piece. Now they're moving him back to the bullpen because he doesn't have the enough of a mix to be a starter. But this doesn't look like a bad pick and the move doesn't have any negative impact on future rotations? Hmmm....those don't seem to mesh.

 

I'm not sure which is more taxing; the mental gymnastics performed to rationalize the move or the physical toll from bending over backwards to defend it. 

You realize the people making this decision are not the ones that drafted him, right? I think you'll find the entire ordeal less taxing if you come to terms with that.

 

I was not a huge fan of this selection when it was made. I'm not calling it a good pick and I don't really see anyone else doing so. But the hand-wringing over what a big mistake it was is moot. And if Jay fulfills his potential in the bullpen it's not going to look like a terrible draft pick in hindsight. It's just not. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

You realize the people making this decision are not the ones that drafted him, right? I think you'll find the entire ordeal less taxing if you come to terms with that.

 

I was not a huge fan of this selection when it was made. I'm not calling it a good pick and I don't really see anyone else doing so. But the hand-wringing over what a big mistake it was is moot. And if Jay fulfills his potential in the bullpen it's not going to look like a terrible draft pick in hindsight. It's just not. 

Thanks for the FO update...

 

I must be misreading the posts defending the selection of Jay at #6 then. The criticism of the move is about what the Twins thought he was going to be when he was drafted and where he is now. When you select a player #6 overall with the idea he'll be a starting pitcher and two seasons later he is going to be in the bullpen full time that is a bad selection at that spot. If he becomes Andrew Miller as some have stated then sure, the pick doesn't look so bad, but that isn't the case right now. To me, that issue isn't in the lease bit moot/debatable. 

 

 

[ALessKosherScott]

They need to draft their own guys in order to develop them? Someone call me in 5 years....

Doing what they think is best to develop someone from the old regime and that Jay may not have been their pick with the six pick in 2015 draft aren't at all related.

[Bob Sacamento]

Alright I'm not wading thru 9 pages of posts but I get the gist is that fans are upset of drafting Tyler Jay #6 overall and the team is turning him into a power reliever instead of as a starter.  Is that right? Okay.  Well the same guys aren't running the organization that thought he was a potential starting pitcher.  In fact quite a few if not the majority of baseball minds thought of Jay as a shutdown reliever not as a starter, and it looks like Levine and Falvey are in the same boat.

 

I actually find this kind of funny as Mike Berardino and I were talking about Jay (and a few others) going to the pen eventually and building a superpen.  We both agreed Jay has a better two pitch combo than pretty much anyone else currently in the Twins relief corps but might as well let him fail as a SP for a year or two following the "let them fail first as a SP before turning them into RP" philosophy that most go thru.  Falvey and Levine don't agree and see Ty Jay as an asset that can help a lot sooner (mid 2017 or start of 2018) than he would as a starter if he ever did turn out as a starter.  

[MN_ExPat]

 

Now you're getting it. 

Vanimal, did you steal my Palpatine quote?...lol

[Darius]

A few glaringly obvious questions that id like to have answered by someone in the organization:

 

1). Why start Jay for so long? If it's about "speeding up his path to the majors," on a bottom dwelling team, why wasn't this the case before? What changed since last year (honest question)?

 

2). If there is such a glaring need in the bullpen, why not sign some veterans for a few million bucks + on short a contract? Some actual helpful bullpen arms, instead of minor league deals. You know, taxpayer funded stadium, piles of cash, etc, etc.

 

3). Weren't we told they didn't need bullpen arms recently, hence no free agents (outside of minor league deals)? Now, is there a surplus of SPs?

 

4). Back to "quickest path to the majors". He's at AA. Are you planning on him breaking camp, or getting a June call up? If not, what's the big timeline difference, here? If he makes strides this year as a starter, it's conceivable for him to get starts with the Twins next year.

 

I'm not even saying it's the wrong move. But, It's absolutely dumbfounding how they handle some of these players, botch their development, then roll out these thoughtless contradictory for convenience. Like they can't be bothered to take the time explain the real reason to the serfdom, because it's beyond our understanding.

 

Frankly, the tax payers lining their pockets deserve better than the brain-trust repeatedly frosting turds, and trying to sell them as Milky Ways. Just admit you're a turd salesman.

[D.C Twins]

 

What evidence is there of this being true? Honest question. His numbers last year were OK for a college first-rounder in Single-A, nothing more. He has two excellent pitches – which played down in a starting role – and beyond that, meh. What gives him the makeup of a #1 or #2 starter in your mind?  

 

The Twins might be painting this publicly as a move toward getting him to the majors faster, or a capitulation to his desires, but they wouldn't be doing it if they believed he had a good chance to become a 1/2 starter. I guarantee you that. 

 

A player who was drafted specifically for his prospect to be a future #1/#2 has already washed out as a starter. This is the problem that I was pointing out (not as to whether he currently has --or has ever had--- the potential to be a #1/#2...this is not my job as I'm neither a scout, nor have I seen him play in person).

 

Luckily we have history to instruct us about how the Twins valued a potential closer...That would be the 72nd pick (Chargois) which is a looooong way from #6.

 

But, this FO did not make that pick, so I agree that we must let them find the best way to fix a mess that was not of their making. If Jay to the pen is a small part of that fix, outstanding.

 

However, We cannot and should not spin this as not-really-that-big-of-deal.

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

1). Why start Jay for so long?

 

A grand total of 1 season.  Actually less that one season: 13 starts at Fort Myers, then 2 more at Chattanooga before he was in the pen for 3 more appearances.

 

Got to give it to them that this was not too long...

[Thrylos]

 

 

A player who was drafted specifically for his prospect to be a future #1/#2 has already washed out as a starter.

 

That's not the thing here.  It is not the Perkins situation.  The people who ran the Twins' draft had the idea that you can get College relievers who throw hard and make them top of the rotation starters.  Did not quite work out for the Twins.  Jay at least got out of there fast enough to be able to help the team.  Cederoth and Bard and (partially) Melotakis are still suffering from that approach.  

 

You cannot wash out something that was never there other in people's minds who tried to force it.

[Han Joelo]

I like Bob's post above.  Phase 1 of pitching development is drafting and signing.  Phase 2 is figuring out what you've got.  In that 2006 draft I mentioned several pages back, the Tigers realized they picked wrong in taking Miller over Scherzer and Lincecum.  A few trades later, they had Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera.

 

Meanwhile, Miller flopped along for a few more years, eventually getting cut by the Red Sox.  Someone with the Sox believed they could fix him, they got him to resign, and he finally blossomed.

 

The Royals tried for years to make Hochevar (the no. 1) pick a starter; they finally got a few decent relief years out of him.  Similar story for Brandon Morrow at no. 5.

 

Kudos to the new regime for moving decisively and circumnavigating a few fruitless years.  Bummer he didn't show up and blow everyone's doors off as a starter.  Didn't do it.  Turn page.  Move on.

[jokin]

 

The people who ran the Twins' draft had the idea that you can get College relievers who throw hard and make them top of the rotation starters. ### 

 

Did not quite work out for the Twins. ***

 

You cannot wash out something that was never there other in people's minds who tried to force it. ###

 

*** #1 Understatement of the Offseason.

 

### Will we ever find out whose bright idea this was? And is he in any way still associated with the Twins?

[The Wise One]

 

Many a great college  pitcher had a year in the bullpen before starting for a year or two. So why should it become a big deal  that the change happens after their third year of college.

[Nick Nelson]

 

A player who was drafted specifically for his prospect to be a future #1/#2 has already washed out as a starter. This is the problem that I was pointing out (not as to whether he currently has --or has ever had--- the potential to be a #1/#2...this is not my job as I'm neither a scout, nor have I seen him play in person).

The point that people keep overlooking, I think, is that a big part of the reason he was drafted there (and a big part of the reason we ranked him as the org's #5 prospect) was because of his high floor as an impact late-inning reliever. 

 

You can argue that they're opting for that route too quickly, but this is not a worst-case scenario or even IMO an unexpected one. And the downside of continuing to push him along as a starter is that you endanger his health (his small frame did not hold up well to the workload last year) while also further acclimating him to a role and routine he probably won't permanently fill.

 

Some guys only have so many bullets. How many do you want to waste on this experiment before unleashing his true potential?

[Mike Sixel]

 

The point that people keep overlooking, I think, is that a big part of the reason he was drafted there (and a big part of the reason we ranked him as the org's #5 prospect) was because of his high floor as an impact late-inning reliever. 

 

You can argue that they're opting for that route too quickly, but this is not a worst-case scenario or even IMO an unexpected one. And the downside of continuing to push him along as a starter is that you endanger his health (his small frame did not hold up well to the workload last year) while also further acclimating him to a role and routine he probably won't permanently fill.

 

Some guys only have so many bullets. How many do you want to waste on this experiment before unleashing his true potential?

 

Wait, now you are saying that pitchers should come up earlier, not later? You gonna say that about Berrios and Meija also? 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

### Will we ever find out whose bright idea this was? And is he in any way still associated with the Twins?

 

Deron Johnson

Yes