Article: Twins Need To Be Buyers Next Winter

[laloesch]

 

The track record of pitchers signing 5+ year deals at 30 is ridiculous. Twins Daily should riot if the Twins make that kind of a choice at the end of 2016. This is not a team with a 2 year window, this is a team that is 2 years from having a 5 year window. This offseason we should be taking gambles on the next Arrieta, not paying up the wazoo for the current Arrieta. 

 

Could not disagree more with this "spending spree".

 

Yep.  The Twins are 3 or 4 starters away from competition STILL and there is not much on the horizon that is remotely close and has proven a thing.  I was really hoping that this season would be big year for May, but as it stands now having TJ at 27....hard not to think that his career is essentially over after watching other guys taking  1 year and 1.5 years to come back.  Hughes is a shadow of his former self.  Duffey and Gibson are absolute train wrecks, Santiago is Nolasco light and Berrios can't handle major pitching.

 

Were do they go from there?  They are NOWHERE near ready to go out and spend big on premium major league starters when they have nothing else to pair it with.  If anything the new FO needs to purge guys like Hughes, Mauer, Santiago, Perkins, etc. over the next two years.  Guys who are not living up to expectations and are taking up large chunks of the payroll.  Clear some space so that in 2 years the club will have much greater flexibility to make meaningful moves and go after quality starters, to pair with some of the up and coming talent.  

 

The only hiccup is that there doesn't appear to be that many guys on the way up given how bad the team has been these past five years.  Who else is there besides Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Meija?.  Thorpe missed 2015 and 2016 with TJ surgery and a viral infection and is off the radar.  Kohl Stewart looks like a flop with the horrible K/9 rates.  Tyler Jay is struggling to convert to a starting role.  

Edited March 17, 2017 by laloesch

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Most big time free agents LOVE opt out clauses now. The twins could be creative and offer HUGE money for 2 years with an opt out for a pitcher. Then if he were to be injured, the Twins are saved for 6 years of paying an injured player.

On the flip side, if the pitcher does pitch well for 2 years, that is a good thing right?

 

Of those listed, Tillman and Pineda interest me some, as well as maybe Darvish. Could be interesting to see what happens.

They like one way opt outs.  Not the kind where the team can nullify the contract.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yep.  The Twins are 3 or 4 starters away from competition STILL and there is no-one on the horizon yet that is even remotely close and has proven a thing.  I was really hoping that this season would be big year for May, but as it stands now having TJ at 27 his career is essentially over before it started IMO.  Hughes is a shadow of his former self.  Duffey and Gibson are train wrecks, Santiago is Nolasco light and Berrios can't handle major pitching.

 

We are NOWHERE near ready to go out and spend big on premium major league starters when we have nothing else to pair them with.  If anything they need to purge guys like Hughes, Mauer, Santiago, etc.  Guys who are not living up to expectations and are taking up large chunks of the payroll.  Clear some space so that in 2 years the club will have much greater flexibility to make meaningful moves and go after quality starters, possibly an ace to pair with some of the up and coming talent.  The only problem i see is that there aren't really that many guys on the way up besides Berrios, Gonsalves, and Romero.     

 

This is where I disagree.  The hitting core is here now. You're right about the pitching in that there's way too many question marks and the likeliness of having a playoff caliber starting 5 to start the season in 2017 is low.  But with the hitting core here, they will need to do something or they will squander it. I think it's safe to say that some guys will establish themselves in 2016. The question is how many. If we walk into next season saying Santana and pray for rain... well, yeah, time to spend. If on the other hand, Berrios, Mejia, and Gibson all have good season, then perhaps you don't need to.  The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle, but getting one top shelf FA to fill out a negative WAR position in the rotation will likely pay huge dividends.

 

Also, plenty of pitchers have come back from TJ successfully.  No reason to write off May just yet.

[laloesch]

 

This is where I disagree.  The hitting core is here now. You're right about the pitching in that there's way too many question marks and the likeliness of having a playoff caliber starting 5 to start the season in 2017 is low.  But with the hitting core here, they will need to do something or they will squander it. I think it's safe to say that some guys will establish themselves in 2016. The question is how many. If we walk into next season saying Santana and pray for rain... well, yeah, time to spend. If on the other hand, Berrios, Mejia, and Gibson all have good season, then perhaps you don't need to.  The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle, but getting one top shelf FA to fill out a negative WAR position in the rotation will likely pay huge dividends.

 

Also, plenty of pitchers have come back from TJ successfully.  No reason to write off May just yet.

 

It took me a while to edit my post.   I agree with you on the hitting.  I'm still bummed out on the May deal.  Not a good sign when you put so much hope on one guy.  I absolutely do agree with not squandering the core of hitting talent we have now.  From the offensive perspective i think this team is close, it's just the darn pitching that's killing them right now.  We ALL really do need to pray for rain this season and hope that Berrios, Meija, Gonsalves continue to progress towards major league roles. This is a BIG BIG year to see what they have down there otherwise I think the FO will be forced to fork over a TON of money in desperation to get starters here sooner.

Edited March 17, 2017 by laloesch

[Dantes929]

 

Great teams don't have "Jason Tyner, DH" as a lineup feature.

I don't recall him being a DH much but sure they do.  Punto was a key player down the stretch in Cardinals Series run.    Tyner hit .312 in 2006 and .299 as a Twin.      Twins got swept by Oakland who they beat up on in the regular season with our Cy Young on the mound.   They played the Yankees a lot who were the better team but they still lost games they had leads in with an all star reliever on the mound.   Worse teams have won more in the playoffs  (87 Twins perhaps).   We had enough talent to do a lot better.    

[nicksaviking]

I don't like 30-year-old pitchers, there's nowhere to go but down. I'm also in the camp that spending on position players is a better move. If the team still can't develop their own arms, I'd rather trade for a young arm, even if it's a painful trade.

 

Or you know, the team could instead spend the money needed to make the team's scouting and development of pitchers the cream of the crop in the league. How much would it actually cost to steal other teams best scouts and minor league instructors? It's probably a pittance compared to what they'd pay for even a back of the rotation starter.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Yep.  The Twins are 3 or 4 starters away from competition STILL and there is not much on the horizon that is remotely close and has proven a thing.  I was really hoping that this season would be big year for May, but as it stands now having TJ at 27....hard not to think that his career is essentially over after watching other guys taking  1 year and 1.5 years to come back.  Hughes is a shadow of his former self.  Duffey and Gibson are absolute train wrecks, Santiago is Nolasco light and Berrios can't handle major pitching.

 

Were do they go from there?  They are NOWHERE near ready to go out and spend big on premium major league starters when they have nothing else to pair it with.  If anything the new FO needs to purge guys like Hughes, Mauer, Santiago, Perkins, etc. over the next two years.  Guys who are not living up to expectations and are taking up large chunks of the payroll.  Clear some space so that in 2 years the club will have much greater flexibility to make meaningful moves and go after quality starters, to pair with some of the up and coming talent.  

 

The only hiccup is that there doesn't appear to be that many guys on the way up given how bad the team has been these past five years.  Who else is there besides Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, Meija?.  Thorpe missed 2015 and 2016 with TJ surgery and a viral infection and is off the radar.  Kohl Stewart looks like a flop with the horrible K/9 rates.  Tyler Jay is struggling to convert to a starting role.  

 

Well hey there Mr. Negative. Let's get off the ledge ok?

May had a setback but Heezy was talking in another thread about how May's surgery is easier than other TJs (repair vs. replacement of the connection). TJ has become really common. Saying May's career is over is a bit ridiculous - he should be back next year so let's be excited for that.

 

Duffey may be better suited for the pen but he looks to be dominant there. So that's good.

 

Berrios is 22 years old. 22. He'll be fine, even though he struggled last year. Tons of pitchers (including a certain Johan Santana) struggle when they first come up. Position players too. No need to give up on Berrios. He may not be a #1 but he should be a nice little middle rotation pitcher.

 

Mejia looks like a solid back of the rotation lefty with some upside to become a #3 starter. That's good.

 

And the Twins do have guys like Hughes and Santana and Santiago leaving in the next year or two, just as they have a whole crop of young talent coming up. Stewart has struggled with the K/9 but he has the elite stuff and is very young for his advancement. Thorpe has had everything go wrong that can go wrong and is still only 21 and looking to attack A ball again. Tyler Jay is still stretching out but stuff-wise, he's been everything the Twins thought he could be when they drafted him. Romero is as good a prospect as anyone and looks to potentially be that #1 guy. Jorge is a nice back-of-the-rotation pitching prospect as well. Further down the ladder, the Twins have the #1 draft pick this year and Huscar Ynoa graduating rookie ball.

 

Not all of that will stick or make it of course and there is some concern about the lack of a dominant #1 but there's a lot of really fun pitching prospects working their way up the ladder. The Twins may not be amazing this year but if Santana, Hughes and Santiago can string together some good work, they become nice trade bait.

 

We don't need to go get Jake Arrieta but we also don't need to be negative. There's a new sheriff in town and he has both a plan and some nice horses to do the plan with. Let's keep on the bright side of life.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Isn't Kershaw a free agent this offseason as well?

 

He can opt out following the 2018 season. Seems highly likely that he will, unless the Dodgers give him an extension. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

3-19 is not random. In fact, it's so one sided that it almost disproves a claim of randomness all on its own.
If it were just random, the expected result would be right around .500.

 

Sorry, as random in sports, not coin flipping. I never liked Billy Beane much but he's a pretty good baseball mind who talked about the randomness of baseball playoffs. The 87 Twins were a garbage team who went all the way cuz they got hot (Les freaking Straker was their #3 starter) while the 1991 Twins were objectively not as good as the 1991 Jays but beat them anyway.

 

In basketball, the best teams make it to the finals most years - you don't get a #6 seed going. Football is a bit more random with the sudden death format but again, the worst playoff teams don't have a chance (you could redo the 2016 NFL playoffs 100 times and the Raiders and Texans never make the Super Bowl). Baseball is a lot more random - better teams lose all the time and any team that makes it has the potential to go all the way. I'd say that hockey is more random since it seems like all you need is a hot goalie and you're capable of beating anyone.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The hitting core is here now. 

 

Oh man, disagree. The hitting core is on the verge but we'll only know after this year. If Buxton takes the step we all hope, Rosario rebounds, Sano rebounds, Kepler doesn't fall apart, Vargas shows it's for real etc., than we'll know it's here. And even then, you open a 5-7 year window with the hitting core. No need to panic and restrict your ability to sign guys like Buxton, Sano, Rosario or Kepler to longer deals by signing the huge contracts it would take to get elite pitching to come to a non-contending middle market like MN.

 

The Twins need to trust their young pitching prospects over the next two years while their hitting develops. It'd help to be able to trade Dozier/Hughes/Santana for more prospects during that period but they have the internal options to build a rotation that can consistently get them to the playoffs. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not to be pedantic, but shouldn't it read "playoff berth"?

 

Pretty sure "playoff birth" isn't the correct terminology.

 

But, yes, I agree the Twins should start adding pieces next offseason. While I'm generally not a fan of $150m contracts to free agents, I'd be happy with the Twins picking up guys in the $50-90m range.

[Dantes929]

 

3-19 is not random. In fact, it's so one sided that it almost disproves a claim of randomness all on its own.
If it were just random, the expected result would be right around .500.

I used to play a ton of cribbage on line and won 60% but would still have stretches where I would go 3-19 with some of them even against poor players.   Sorry about the bragging  but the coin flip is close to 50/50 odds and randomness is what allows there to be wide variations in small sample results.   Twins against the Yankees were less than 50/50 con flip but if they were to play another 22 games I would have been happy to take the chances.      In fact I am still a bit bitter about 2008 tie breaker loss.    KC was one out from their playoff record being 0-1 in 2014 instead of  11-4.    Twins getting hot was always a possibility.   The fact that it didn't happen is no proof that it could not happen.     Those Twins teams always did well really well in interleague and did just fine against the AL West.   They were not as good as the AL East teams but still did even worse against them than the bad KC teams against them.    I never understood it.    More mental than physical.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think refusing to compete for the best ML free agents is a mistake. No different than chosing not to pursue other talent, such as trades or int'l free agents. It's self limiting and short sighted.

 

But if everyone else is jumping off a cliff, we should too?
 

Signing 30 year old starting pitching to the 5-7 year contracts they get today is fraught with peril. The contracts almost never work out for the back half of the deal and often don't for the front. You only need to look at guys like Johan, Halladay, Sabathia, Zito, Shields, Cain, Lincecum, Hampton and even Verlander to see how those can become anchors holding a franchise back.

 

The Yankees can afford the back half of a Sabathia contract (though even in NYC it's tough) but the Twins need to be smart enough to know they can't do that. I don't call it "refusing to compete for the best ML free agents", I call it "being smart enough to avoid the mistakes that big franchises make."

[Tom Froemming]

 

Not to be pedantic, but shouldn't it read "playoff berth"?

 

Pretty sure "playoff birth" isn't the correct terminology.

 

But, yes, I agree the Twins should start adding pieces next offseason. While I'm generally not a fan of $150m contracts to free agents, I'd be happy with the Twins picking up guys in the $50-90m range.

You are correct, sir. But I have no way of editing it

 

If all these guys actually hit the market next year, even if they all have great seasons I'd imagine somebody attractive would land into that $50-90M range just based off there being more supply than demand. Plus, it's possible some teams may look to "save" money next offseason in hopes of having the cash to throw at Harper, Machado or Kershaw after 2018 (assuming they all go to free agency that winter). 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You are correct, sir. But I have no way of editing it

 

If all these guys actually hit the market next year, even if they all have great seasons I'd imagine somebody attractive would land into that $50-90M range just based off there being more supply than demand. Plus, it's possible some teams may look to "save" money next offseason in hopes of having the cash to throw at Harper, Machado or Kershaw after 2018 (assuming they all go to free agency that winter). 

No worries, fixed it for you. I wasn't trying to call you out or anything, I was legitimately curious. I thought I was right but wasn't sure.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yup....this.  I'd spend some in FA, but not the drunken sailor spending that some want.

 

As the GM of the WS champion Cubs states, if you are rational about FAs, you won't sign FAs.

 

He was also the GM of the WS champion Red Sox.

 

He also signs FAs to big deals.

[Tom Froemming]

 

You only need to look at guys like Johan, Halladay, Sabathia, Zito, Shields, Cain, Lincecum, Hampton and even Verlander to see how those can become anchors holding a franchise back.

Yeah, those Zito, Cain and Lincecum deals really crippled that Giants franchise. They've had such a terrible run over the past decade Also, Verlander doesn't deserve to be lumped into that group. He had one bad year. Sabathia on his first deal was great, he gave the Yankees four excellent seasons. 

 

I get what you're saying, but there's crazy variance/injury risk for all starting pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Cubs were a totally different team. They had a braintrust that had spent those past three years (not three months, three YEARS) specifically accumulating position player talent (including the ballsy-at-the-time drafting of Schwarber, a guy without a position who could hit like hell). They knew they had a market that could support 2-3 long contracts on free agent starting pitchers so they explicitly eschewed drafting pitching (the most volatile of stocks) to draft projectable position players. Arrieta was a gamble that extended their window and made their current budget less stretched but they were a team that planned on buying pitching at some point. Very little of their pitching is homegrown, it's a benefit for being in a big market,

 

That's just not the Twins. They're a different market of team with very different priorities. Let's recognize the stratum of MLB franchises -- the Cubs are closer to the Yankees than they are to the Twins. Ugh.

 

so just give up on one of the ways to acquire talent, and admit you are can't really compete?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Great teams don't have "Jason Tyner, DH" as a lineup feature.

 

Teams that spend on FA to fill that "one last hole" don't have Jason Tyner, DH, either. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

But if everyone else is jumping off a cliff, we should too?
 

Signing 30 year old starting pitching to the 5-7 year contracts they get today is fraught with peril. The contracts almost never work out for the back half of the deal and often don't for the front. You only need to look at guys like Johan, Halladay, Sabathia, Zito, Shields, Cain, Lincecum, Hampton and even Verlander to see how those can become anchors holding a franchise back.

 

The Yankees can afford the back half of a Sabathia contract (though even in NYC it's tough) but the Twins need to be smart enough to know they can't do that. I don't call it "refusing to compete for the best ML free agents", I call it "being smart enough to avoid the mistakes that big franchises make."

 

How is not signing FAs working out for this team, exactly? Which teams are actually winning more games? 

 

Of course the contracts almost never work out over the entire length, that's the cost of being in the game of MLB or NFL or NHL or NBA. If you aren't willing to pay that price, you'll pretty much never sign a big FA, meaning you are at a huge disadvantage. 

 

Look, if you want to own a major league sports team, and you aren't willing to sign big time FAs? Maybe you shouldn't own a major league sports team. Of, you should just admit you are never going to be good over a sustained period, and you'll never likely buy that one missing piece. 

 

If that's your strategy, then you have to be one of the best at acquiring and developing talent. Does anyone think the Twins are significantly above average at either of those?

[Brandon]

I would say trade for Quintana and sign one of the pitchers and our rotation should be good.

[Brandon]

I would say trade for Quintana and sign one of the pitchers and our rotation should be good.

[Brandon]

I would say trade for Quintana and sign one of the pitchers and our rotation should be good.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

They like one way opt outs.  Not the kind where the team can nullify the contract.

 

No, you are right, it would have to be a one way opt out.

[Vanimal46]

 

The Pohlad's aren't going to spend big in free agency. Until they do it once, I don't think we should give them the benefit of the doubt that they'll do it. The new FO - particularly Falvey - come from orgs that didn't really rely on free agency. It's not a surprise that the Twins wanted that in their FO. Our bigger worry is that they won't pony up the money to keep these young position players around in a few years.

 

Concur. They'll never be comfortable to hand out $100+ MM contracts to FA pitchers... It's a bit silly to think they'll be in contention of signing Cueto, Arietta, etc. Falvey was brought on to acquire talent in other ways besides opening up the checkbook and handing out 9 figure contracts.

I'd like them to be buyers for sure, but through trades, international signings, and other routes.

 

And like you, I'd rather they pony up and hand out lengthy extensions to Buxton, Sano, and whomever else breaks out in the future.  

 

 

[mikelink45]

I am here with my prejudice for young players.  We once dipped in to the big payroll and extended years with a guy named Mauer and I have seen more whining and anguish over that than almost anything the Twins have or have not done.  I look at the big contracts like Pujols and Fielder and Howard where teams go crazy paying for past performance with little expectation of getting what the contract is supposed to buy.

 

The Cubs did not succeed because of Lester, they got there by developing players and if the TD rankings of prospects and reports from Florida are to be believed we just might have the talent ready to rise.  Better we get the young arms producing and then let the other guys give them the big extensions for the end of their careers.

 

The nucleus is there, the potential is there, even at SS where the pundits weep over Polanco's fielding we have Javier and Gordon coming along.  This team is two years from going past contending to a real threat.  Load up the young guys and get it going.

 

No more Hughes, Nolasco, Santiago, Pelfrey, Correia, Pavano, Hernandez, Rogers... Get the talent coming up to produce, it is the only way this team can truly be competitive over the long run.  I understand what you are saying, but I do not want any of these players.  I would prefer the young potential prospects over guys who have already stressed their arms and have limited years ahead.

[Kwak]

Just mention the Mauer contract around 1 Twins Way sends people scurrying like cockroaches in a newly lit room.  No way are they going to spend big money on a multi-year contract--for a pitcher!  This team is not a contender or even close.  When the team is rebuilt to a consistent winner, then the checkbook might open for a 1-year big money contract for a pitcher ala` Jack Morris. But next year--pure fan fiction.

[TheLeviathan]

 

As the GM of the WS champion Cubs states, if you are rational about FAs, you won't sign FAs.

 

He was also the GM of the WS champion Red Sox.

 

He also signs FAs to big deals.

 

While the Twins can certainly do more (much more) I think your comparisons are rather flawed.  As much as I like Epstein, he's never been held to much of a budget.   And when you have that kind of budget you have more room to make mistakes and you can throw reason out the window a little more freely.

 

At some point reality has to be in the equation here a bit.  A timely splash?  Sure.  Dropping 25M on one player every offseason?  Not reality.  And not wise either.

[Mike Sixel]

 

While the Twins can certainly do more (much more) I think your comparisons are rather flawed.  As much as I like Epstein, he's never been held to much of a budget.   And when you have that kind of budget you have more room to make mistakes and you can throw reason out the window a little more freely.

 

At some point reality has to be in the equation here a bit.  A timely splash?  Sure.  Dropping 25M on one player every offseason?  Not reality.  And not wise either.

 

It wasn't an argument for spending on 5 players, but that people are saying "FA contracts turn out badly at the end, never sign a big time FA". His response is quite clear, those back years suck, but if you want the fun of the good years, that's the actual price of the good parts of the deal.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It wasn't an argument for spending on 5 players, but that people are saying "FA contracts turn out badly at the end, never sign a big time FA". His response is quite clear, those back years suck, but if you want the fun of the good years, that's the actual price of the good parts of the deal.

 

You responded to me and I said I'd rather not spend like a drunken sailor.  You then quoted a GM about spending irrationally.

 

I stand by what I said - I don't want to spend like a drunken sailor.  FA, for the Twins, will always have to be measured and smart.  Even if it becomes more aggressive.

Edited March 17, 2017 by TheLeviathan