Article: Report From The Fort: Mejia Makes His Case

[Vanimal46]

Anybody but Vogelsong. Let's go Mejia! 

[Penthang]

My hope is that Vogelsong and Hague are players that the front office brought in as depth/emergency options knowing that they would have players out at the WBC and will be released/reassigned once those players return. My fear is that the spirit of Terry Ryan is still around somewhere and will let Vogelsong have a shot because Molitor is more comfortable with veterans.

[thegambler]

Francisco Liriano was a legitimate #2 starter on multiple playoff teams, it's ridiculous to say he should have been a reliever. To say that is to ignore that even an average starter is incredibly more valuable than a dominant reliever. You may have a point about Santiago but Liriano is terrible evidence. It'd be like me arguing that an old Toyota should go to the junkyard because I once had a Ferrari that stalled.

Sorry, but I disagree. Liriano has has a couple solid season, but to say he is "average" is a stretch beyond imagination. For one, he's only reached 190 innings once in his career. Also take out the three anomaly seasons in Pittsburg, and his career ERA approaches 5.00. Considering that wherever Liriano has been, he's been traded for a bucket of balls, your argument about the "value" of a below average starter doesn't hold true. Liriano could have been developed into a dominant closer at some point, much more value than a starting pitcher who is both not durable, and not effective.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Sorry, but I disagree. Liriano has has a couple solid season, but to say he is "average" is a stretch beyond imagination. For one, he's only reached 190 innings once in his career. Also take out the three anomaly seasons in Pittsburg, and his career ERA approaches 5.00. Considering that wherever Liriano has been, he's been traded for a bucket of balls, your argument about the "value" of a below average starter doesn't hold true. Liriano could have been developed into a dominant closer at some point, much more value than a starting pitcher who is both not durable, and not effective.

 

I can't believe this is even an argument. You're cherrypicking and making a case with major holes.

 

A.) 190 once (though 186 another year makes that 190 number a bit of a cherry-pick). And he's reached 150 six times. You'd rather have 60 innings than 150? That's why starting pitching is always better than relieving. That's why even the great Mariano Rivera was tried as a starter first. Same with Glen Perkins. And Joe Nathan. And Dennis Eckersley. Clubs realize that good pitching should start until it proves it can't. And before you say "And all of those guys were better relievers" - (1) that's obviously a best-case sample, there are dozens of okay starters who never work out in the pen and (2) You predicate this on Liriano being a dominant reliever, which is unproven. It's not some magical truth where decent starting pitcher = dominant closer. We'd have all dominant closers then.

 

B.) I'm not sure a person can call three seasons an anomaly - that's a good pitcher. An anomaly is a year, maybe two at max. And it's not three years - he had two good years with the Twins as well. So a 5 season anomaly? In some places we call that a career. He's received Cy Young votes twice (9th and 11th place finishes). Your argument makes no sense - a starting pitcher with Cy Young votes in multiple years should not become a reliever unless you're sure he's going to be one of the best closers in baseball. Do you truly think that?

 

C.) The trade thing makes no sense either. He got traded for Eduardo Escobar, a nice MLB player. Not sure that's a bucket of balls. And it was only that low because he was a 2 month rental for the White Sox before hitting free agency. The trade to Toronto was a salary dump by a franchise with limited spending. They decided to try to go young - it's also interesting that the trade was universally panned for the Pirates at the time and has been ridiculed in every article I've seen since. Trade markets are more complicated than free agency - you're competing against who is available at that weird moment in time with teams overvaluing and undervaluing guys based on what the team's needs are (see Eaton, Adam). The free agency market is a much better concept of what guys are worth because there are more options and teams can take their time. Liriano has signed a big money starting pitching contract (3 years $30 mill and only that small because he had an extra year on a make-good deal and had less bargaining power) and the Pirates would sign that deal again in a heartbeat.

D.) On that vein, the market says it all. 4th and 5th starters get paid $8-10 mill/year. Jason Hammel got $16 over 2 yrs. Ivan Nova got $26 mill over 3 years. Edison Volquez got $22 mill for 2 years. The only relievers who touch that are big-time closers and the occasional dominant set-up man. The best starters blow those guys out of the water.

 

Starting Pitching > Relief Pitching and nothing in Liriano's career suggests he shouldn't have been starting for most of his career. If a team wants to transition him to the pen late in his career, that makes some sense. He's a lefty and could extend his career a half decade. But none of that should be applied retroactively to the first half of his career.

[Joe A. Preusser]

My 2 cents:

 

Liriano has had a fine SP career. The idea that he would have been better off as a reliever is pretty silly. For long stretches he has been absolutely dominant. Unfortunately for him, he's also been very inconsistent. And when he's bad, he's really bad. But he has enough elite equity built up where I'd never go back in time and convert him to a releiver from the get go.

 

I also disagree that a dominant releiver isn't as valuable as an average starting pitcher. Dominant releivers can have a huge effect on a season, just as much as your #3 starter. If I had to choose I'd take a staff of average starters and elite relievers over a staff of very good starters and average relievers. The Royals have proven this model with their 2 great runs, and I still don't understand why they didn't do more to keep that elite pen intact.