Fair enough, but which is better:

 

1) Buxton hitting a single or double with Polanco on base

2) Polanco (or anybody else) hitting a single or double with Buxton on base

 

Remember, Buxton is as fast as it gets. Buxton could score on hits when anybody else ends up at 3rd.

 

Buxton has to be on base for this to work....

 

That's fair and I guess I don't really care that much either way... what I care most about right now is that Buxton is nowhere near the top of the lineup. I want to see his OBP get well over .300 before I put him anywhere near the top of the lineup.

 

No disagreement there. Buxton has to prove he can do it first.

 

I admit to not sitting down and doing research. And thusly, I am choosing to debate rather than argue, lol. But 66 PA is closer to 50 than a hundred. You also stated that Lawton moved around in the lineup, which would affect the total numbers vs a static lineup. Also, it is one season vs number of seasons for proper context. Puckett, for example, didn't always walk a lot, but as a #3 hitter, he was always 500+ AB and I believe he may have hit 600 once or twice?? I'm just saying, overall, being separated by 1 or 2 spots in the order, over an average season, I'm not sure you'd see a very large discrepancy in PA between the 1 and 3 holes in the order.

As to your other question, I can see Buxton getting an audition for the leadoff spot, but of course, he also has to produce there to hold the spot. He shouldn't just automatically be given the spot if not ready. I have always believed in trying to stagger your lineup, as best as possible, for a mix of LH/RH, power vs speed vs hitting vs OB, etc, to "deepen" your lineup 1-9.

So let me ask you this...as I stated previously, Buxton, in this scenario, is deserving of hitting leadoff due to his overall ability and skill set as an exciting player. Even if he did have 66 more PA than Dozier over an entire 162 game season, and we're not talking Nixon now, what would be more valuable? Dozier hitting 1st? Or Dozier with fewer PA, in theory, but with more dynamic players OB ahead of him to be moved along or driven in?

I understand the conventional wisdom and agree that speed should serve as a tiebreaker if we're talking about two similarly productive bats. But we're not.

 

If Buxton turns into a better hitter than Dozier I'll be right there with you asking that he bat higher in the order. That is a huge if. In the more likely event Buxton isn't the better hitter then having him bat at the top of the order comes at a direct cost of PAs to better hitters, namely Dozier and probably Sano and 1-2 others at minimum. Look at any team season in baseball history and you will find a descending number of PAs in the lineup, usually 15-20 PA's per slot.

I have a great deal of respect for Bill James. I agree that Rod Carew should never have accumulated more at bats hitting 2nd or 3rd than 1st. Carew did so only because of old school thinking that did not take into account OBP or power (or lack thereof).
In baseball you want high OBP guy batting early, but who anywhere would have had Ted Williams bat leadoff? The opportunity to generate RBI has to come into the mix at some point.
All the factors have to come into play: OBP, power, speed. If Kennys Vargas has the highest OBP on the team I am still not going to bat him directly in front of Buxton. You are almost certainly giving up bases somewhere along the line if you do so.
I also do not believe that if Buxton never again leads off he is a bust. Lineup construction is complex. The ‘perfect’ lineup for a team is debatable. I just don’t think you have one of your biggest power hitters batting first, insuring that they have at least one bat per game with no one on. Especially when they do not lead the team in OBP.

 

I have a great deal of respect for Bill James. I agree that Rod Carew should never have accumulated more at bats hitting 2nd or 3rd than 1st. Carew did so only because of old school thinking that did not take into account OBP or power (or lack thereof).
In baseball you want high OBP guy batting early, but who anywhere would have had Ted Williams bat leadoff? The opportunity to generate RBI has to come into the mix at some point.
All the factors have to come into play: OBP, power, speed. If Kennys Vargas has the highest OBP on the team I am still not going to bat him directly in front of Buxton. You are almost certainly giving up bases somewhere along the line if you do so.
I also do not believe that if Buxton never again leads off he is a bust. Lineup construction is complex. The ‘perfect’ lineup for a team is debatable. I just don’t think you have one of your biggest power hitters batting first, insuring that they have at least one bat per game with no one on. Especially when they do not lead the team in OBP.

 

: mic drop :

 

In what universe does it make sense to give Buxton more PAs than Dozier?

In what universe does it make sense to give him the least number of possible PA's?  ie. hitting #9?

In what universe does it make sense to give him the least number of possible PA's? ie. hitting #9?

A universe where Buxton is coming off a season when he got on base 28% of the time, which was still a 3% improvement over the previous season.