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What's behind the latest rise in HRs?


Teflon

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In 2014, the MLB had only 11 players that hit 30 or more HRs. This was the lowest number in a non-strike year since 1992. (In comparison, in the year 2000, 47 players clubbed 30 or more HRs).

 

Suddenly in 2015, this number nearly doubled back up to 20 players and in 2016, it nearly doubled again to 38 players. We now have more players hitting 30 or more homeruns than in any season since 2001.

 

This resurgence in the number of 30 HR hitters is visibile in the total number of homeruns hit, too, as the 2015 total was 700 homeruns higher thanthe year before and the 2016 total was another 700 homeruns higher than in 2015.

 

Are the extreme strikeout rates behind the increase as hitters no longer look to make contact with 2-strikes but continue to swing for the fences? Are MLB teams now treating the homerun as their version of the 3-point shot? Have teams shifted to player decisions more heavily emphasizing HR power than other attributes? Are more and more teams preaching uppercut swings? Has the MLB once again slipped in a livlier ball in an effort to "energize" the game? Are greater pitcher velocities causing faster exit velocities? Is it all the result of bad Twins pitching? Are players using altered bats? All of the above?

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I think it's a sprinkle of one and a sprinkle of another.

 

Absolutely more guys are seeing the data on exit velocity and angle and working to maximize that sort of stuff with redesigned swings.

 

The ball is significantly different, and from the reports of Drew Pomeranz, it's different from NL to AL as well, something he noticed after moving to the Red Sox from the Padres.

 

Of course, the other part is that velocity bit that higher velocity can lead to higher likelihood of home runs, but when combined with improved launch angles, it will lead to the drastic spike we've seen.

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