Rotation "Set"

[twinsnorth49]

No, I am not saying that. Saying that would be analogous to saying that someone who dreamt all his life to do something, like going to college, does not care about it, because he went behind the gym with his buddies got drunk and got caught. Lapse of judgement. Bad decision. It happens.

 

Yes I am suggesting that if you are young pitcher on the bubble of making a team, it is a lapse of judgement and bad decision to leave your team during Spring Training.

 

And, yes, they are taking 3 weeks off from learning their new catchers and having their young infielders behind them figuring out how they pitch, and they are taking 3 weeks off doing team drills, like their teammates.

Yeah, he's going to basically forget how to baseball over the course of three weeks,while playing baseball.

 

A lot of hyperbole in your post and a completely singular way of looking at things.

 

Much ado about nothing imo.

[Jham]

We'll have to disagree on what is and isn't punishment.

 

That last sentence is exactly the problem. Nobody has a problem with a guy like Santana being a lock. The issue is when you have a pitching staff as bad as they do and by March 5 they've "locked," in 4/5 of the rotation and included in that group is a guy coming off of a major surgery who hasn't shown he is close to being back to MLB ready.

But you can say the same thing about the prospects. I have no problem breaking camp with an elite arm who had come up and gotten a taste the past september, but the Twins don't have that prospect. Not close. These guys haven't forced their way up or earned that sort of optimism. And throwing them to the wolves could be detrimental.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If you take time off from work to attend a family wedding you don't care about your job.

If you cancel a vacation with friends because a child gets sick you clearly don't care about your relationships.

If you choose to participate in the WBC at the expense of some ST you don't care about your team.

 

Notice the similarities. These statements are all fallacious.

indeed, but all indicate priorities. If I canceled a vacation w/ friends to care for a sick kid that coincided w/ a history of always having a sick kid to care for when these situations arose, my friends might stop inviting me to go on the trip. Depending on my priorities, I might be ok with that. I might not.

 

I don't know that Berrios has a pattern or how the FO responds to his participation in ST. I can however envision a scenario where Thrylos is correct.

[KirbyDome89]

 

But you can say the same thing about the prospects. I have no problem breaking camp with an elite arm who had come up and gotten a taste the past september, but the Twins don't have that prospect. Not close. These guys haven't forced their way up or earned that sort of optimism. And throwing them to the wolves could be detrimental.

He is as "elite," of an arm as they have right now. He has wrecked AAA the past couple seasons. At what point is he allowed to "learn on the job," ie pitch for the big league team? 

[KirbyDome89]

 

indeed, but all indicate priorities. If I canceled a vacation w/ friends to care for a sick kid that coincided w/ a history of always having a sick kid to care for when these situations arose, my friends might stop inviting me to go on the trip. Depending on my priorities, I might be ok with that. I might not.

I don't know that Berrios has a pattern or how the FO responds to his participation in ST. I can however envision a scenario where Thrylos is correct.

You can try to twist the proposed scenarios any way you want but it doesn't change the fact that the logic used to support the theory that Berrios doesn't care about the team is misguided at best....

[Thrylos]

 

You can try to twist the proposed scenarios any way you want but it doesn't change the fact that the logic used to support the theory that Berrios doesn't care about the team is misguided at best....

 

I am sure that Berrios cares about the team.  Maybe.  Now that I am thinking about it, I am not that sure.  I haven't heard Berrios ever saying that he want the Twins to win a World Championship.

 

I might be misguided.  Please feel free to be my guide here and show me any evidence against that.

 

Actions speak louder than words.

 

Fact:  Berrios decided to play for Team Puerto Rico and leave the Twins' Spring Training for 2-3 weeks, while competing for a position in the team rotation

 

Fact: Any way you cut it, Berrios was the Twins' worst starting pitcher last season

 

The question might be whether Berrios cares about making the team, instead of Berrios caring about the team, no?

 

Apparently he does not care about making the team either...

[TheLeviathan]

Young players need opportunity and lots of rope to fail and learn.

 

I've often thought the team has struggled to find that balance.  Some players have been given rope (Plouffe and Koskie come immediately to mind) whereas others have been jerked around a lot more.

 

Patience with young players as an organization and as fans is crucial.  

[Jham]

 

He is as "elite," of an arm as they have right now. He has wrecked AAA the past couple seasons. At what point is he allowed to "learn on the job," ie pitch for the big league team? 

I mean, it's probably a moot point anyway.  He'll be leaving for the WBC which will cost him valuable time to impress the coaching staff.  It's like going in for a job interview with a company that knows you're super talented and has asked you to apply, but also knowing you don't have the experience of some of the other candidates.  They all show up wearing suits, you're in a golf shirt and slacks.  They have writing samples along with their resumes.  The company asks you to provide a writing sample, but you don't have one.  You also did an internship with them, but made a couple costly mistakes.  Still, they see your promise.

It's not impossible that some of the other candidates fall through and they gamble on the intern.  But you've sort of put yourself behind the 8 ball.  Could you blame the company for offering the job to one of the other candidates and asking you to come aboard as an apprentice?

He had 14 starts last year.  Learning on the job wasn't working.  It may have set his development back.  And again, I will caution using the same barometers of "dominance" for MLB and AAA.  9k/9ip in AAA is closer to 7k/9ip in MLB.  3bb/9ip in AAA is likely to be 5bb/9ip in the show.  

If Berrios is the pitcher we believe he is, he'll force his way up again, and hopefully be better prepared for success in the majors.  You don't play him like he's elite just because he's the arguably the closest we've got to elite.  We've been doing that. And we've burned through prospects.  We've burned through service time.  And perhaps we've even stunted development.  I'm a big believe in Berrios talent and ability.  But we have no indication that he's ready to improve on last season.  I doubt he would have shown that he's dramatically better whether he played WBC or not.  But if he is dramatically improved, he won't be able to show it on a daily basis.  Too much of a hill to climb.  But again, I'm sure he'll be back up very soon.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I am sure that Berrios cares about the team.  Maybe.  Now that I am thinking about it, I am not that sure.  I haven't heard Berrios ever saying that he want the Twins to win a World Championship.

 

I might be misguided.  Please feel free to be my guide here and show me any evidence against that.

 

Actions speak louder than words.

 

Fact:  Berrios decided to play for Team Puerto Rico and leave the Twins' Spring Training for 2-3 weeks, while competing for a position in the team rotation

 

Fact: Any way you cut it, Berrios was the Twins' worst starting pitcher last season

 

The question might be whether Berrios cares about making the team, instead of Berrios caring about the team, no?

 

Apparently he does not care about making the team either...

Misguided was a polite adjective...

 

Now he doesn't care because he hasn't mentioned a WS to the Twin Cities media? Seriously? This is beyond reaching....

 

Look; you're entitled to your opinion and cheers for having one, but the logic you're using to try to defend that position is remarkably fallacious. If you don't think he deserves a shot at cracking the rotation that is a defensible position. The problem arises when you introduce totally unsubstantiated claims and then pass it off as fact. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

 But we have no indication that he's ready to improve on last season. 

Agreed on that point. I just see him facing MLB lineups as a better way to actually tell how much/if he has improved. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Agreed on that point. I just see him facing MLB lineups as a better way to actually tell how much/if he has improved.

agreed, but it seems like that is a significant risk considering the ready talent behind him. I think if he were showing more commitment to the process, it might be less risk.

[KirbyDome89]

 

agreed, but it seems like that is a significant risk considering the ready talent behind him. I think if he were showing more commitment to the process, it might be less risk.

I'm not sure what you mean by risk.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm not sure what you mean by risk.

what I mean is the talent behind him is thin right now. For each pitcher, every pitch they throw might be their last. Thinning out talent on purpose might be best for Berrios in the long run, but worse for the team thrusting pitchers who aren't yet ready into bigger roles.

 

It's less about Berrios and more about Mejia, Romero and R.Rosario. Mejia is closest but not exactly ready yet. Romero and Rosario are no where close. Maybe by mid-season but who knows? What I'm getting at is there's risk in putting all your eggs in Berrios's basket when you've only got one other pitcher who's ready to close to filling that Rochester shuttle role. There will be more than one injury to the rotation in 2017 that requires a DL stint.

 

A trade can change that, but prolly won't happen for a while.

[beckmt]

what I mean is the talent behind him is thin right now. For each pitcher, every pitch they throw might be their last. Thinning out talent on purpose might be best for Berrios in the long run, but worse for the team thrusting pitchers who aren't yet ready into bigger roles.

 

It's less about Berrios and more about Mejia, Romero and R.Rosario. Mejia is closest but not exactly ready yet. Romero and Rosario are no where close. Maybe by mid-season but who knows? What I'm getting at is there's risk in putting all your eggs in Berrios's basket when you've only got one other pitcher who's ready to close to filling that Rochester shuttle role. There will be more than one injury to the rotation in 2017 that requires a DL stint.

 

A trade can change that, but prolly won't happen for a while.

Still mystified by this approach. You have a minimum of 8 starting pitchers, almost all of whom will be at AA or higher at the start of this year. Over the next 2 years, you have more than 50% of the ace pitchers able to hit FA. You have a young roster that will have a chance to win it all(hopefully) in the next few years. Maybe the newer pitchers are not ready, but you cannot evaluate them between the difference of an AAAA pitcher and a good major league starter without giving these pitchers the chance. Santiago without a good year, will not be here next year(and if he has a good year and the Twins are not in it, he will bring back decent assets). Gibson, I still feel we have better pitchers in the pipeline. Hughes needs to regain his velocity, as his fastball is suspect.

I am not saying to just cut some of these pitchers, there have been several pitchers go down and will not be ready for the start of the season(Texas is a prime example). See if you can get a lottery ticket plus for one of our starters.

As far a letting Falvey and Levine evaluate this year, I am sure in their prior positions they had access to how their people felt about the Twins pitchers. They will not need to fully evaluate, because they already have the background to do this.

Last issue is Molitor. I have to believe that their is a mandate from Pohlad to construct a club to give him a chance. That is a problem, because it slows or stops the process. I can only hope if this is the case and the Twins get off to a bad start, that he is fired and the Twins move to the total overhaul of their pitching staff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd prefer to see Berrios start the season in Minnesota but I think too much emphasis is being put on where he is on Opening Day.

 

The reasoning to put Berrios in the rotation is "the Twins have a terrible pitching staff". Yes, they do, which also means it's likely one of those terrible pitchers will get injured, demoted, or released before the end of April and almost certainly by the end of May. We're still 25 days from the start of the season. One of these guys might not even make it out of ST healthy.

 

In the end, is it really going to matter much? Again, I'd prefer to see Berrios get the nod (particularly if Hughes is throwing 90mph) but when the dust settles, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Berrios make 25+ starts in Minnesota this season.

[Linus]

I hope May gets a chance. His stuff looks good and he's in his prime. He's one of the few Twins pitchers that could be here when they are good.

[beckmt]

I'd prefer to see Berrios start the season in Minnesota but I think too much emphasis is being put on where he is on Opening Day.

 

The reasoning to put Berrios in the rotation is "the Twins have a terrible pitching staff". Yes, they do, which also means it's likely one of those terrible pitchers will get injured, demoted, or released before the end of April and almost certainly by the end of May. We're still 25 days from the start of the season. One of these guys might not even make it out of ST healthy.

 

In the end, is it really going to matter much? Again, I'd prefer to see Berrios get the nod (particularly if Hughes is throwing 90mph) but when the dust settles, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Berrios make 25+ starts in Minnesota this season.

Still feel there is the double secret order out to give Molitor everything he needs to succeed this year. That does not include the probationary pitchers. We will probably see Vogelsong and Tempish before we see Berrios. This is along with Mejia, Wheeler and a few others. And yes until proven otherwise I am cynical at this time.

[KirbyDome89]

 

 

what I mean is the talent behind him is thin right now. For each pitcher, every pitch they throw might be their last. Thinning out talent on purpose might be best for Berrios in the long run, but worse for the team thrusting pitchers who aren't yet ready into bigger roles.

It's less about Berrios and more about Mejia, Romero and R.Rosario. Mejia is closest but not exactly ready yet. Romero and Rosario are no where close. Maybe by mid-season but who knows? What I'm getting at is there's risk in putting all your eggs in Berrios's basket when you've only got one other pitcher who's ready to close to filling that Rochester shuttle role. There will be more than one injury to the rotation in 2017 that requires a DL stint.

A trade can change that, but prolly won't happen for a while.

You want him in AAA as depth? None of the other starting candidates are going anywhere. The pool to chose from is the same whether or not he has a rotation spot. 

[KirbyDome89]

I don't understand this injury argument. IF Berrios is one of the 5 best pitchers on the team he shouldn't have to wait until an injury occurs to step into the rotation. If some of the starters are really that terrible (a couple honestly might be) even by late April then they've wasted a month. We've seen it in the past few years with guys like Jepsen and Stauffer; would it be a huge shock to see the Twins give a starter more leash than deserved? 

[nicksaviking]

 

In the end, is it really going to matter much? Again, I'd prefer to see Berrios get the nod (particularly if Hughes is throwing 90mph) but when the dust settles, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Berrios make 25+ starts in Minnesota this season.

 

I would have no consternation about the situation any which way it turns out if all things were equal. The issue comes when the guys at the bottom of the pole then have to "earn" a spot even when the incumbent vets are bad.

 

Or worst yet, when the incumbent vet is doing just enough to keep his job but not enough to help the team win. Then you get a Pelfrey-like stalemate.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would have no consternation about the situation any which way it turns out if all things were equal. The issue comes when the guys at the bottom of the pole then have to "earn" a spot even when the incumbent vets are bad.

 

Or worst yet, when the incumbent vet is doing just enough to keep his job but not enough to help the team win. Then you get a Pelfrey-like stalemate.

I definitely feel this has been a problem in the past but when faced with a pitching staff with a floor this low, it makes sense to give yourself options over the first two months of the season. If you waive Santiago and go with Berrios, what happens if Berrios fails horribly again? What happens if Santiago picks up with another team and posts league average numbers?

 

I don't have a problem with playing a conservative hand to open the season... but I'll have a big ****ing problem if we cross into June and Santiago is still in the rotation with a 5.00 ERA.

 

And I don't know how the new front office will play that situation. I'll let them make that mistake before criticizing them for perceived mistakes. And I certainly won't use evidence of the old front office's actions to legitimize that perceived mistake.

[Mike Sixel]

What happens if Berrios fails again?

 

leave him out there until the end of 2018, to see if he improves. Because if Berrios isn't good, and Gonsalves has shoulder issues, does any of this really matter?

[KirbyDome89]

 

 

And I don't know how the new front office will play that situation. I'll let them make that mistake before criticizing them for perceived mistakes. And I certainly won't use evidence of the old front office's actions to legitimize that perceived mistake.

Given how much of the old FO is still around and the looking at the moves (or lack thereof) the team has made so far I don't think its crazy to be concerned about how the pitching will be handled. Obviously I'm not writing off Falvey/Levine but it would be nice to see things handled in a way that didn't scream status quo. I just don't think we've seen a lot of that YET...

[diehardtwinsfan]

My issue is that Berrios isn't one of the five best pitchers now. He clearly has the upside, and he's close to ready, but letting him spend a month in Rochester while the team sorts out the rotation isn't a bad thing. He can work on those things he needs to work on and the Twins can jettison the guy that deserves being jettisoned instead of guessing. If everyone does well, you're flipping a guy like Santiago for a prospect and promoting Berrios. That also is a good thing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Given how much of the old FO is still around and the looking at the moves (or lack thereof) the team has made so far I don't think its crazy to be concerned about how the pitching will be handled. Obviously I'm not writing off Falvey/Levine but it would be nice to see things handled in a way that didn't scream status quo. I just don't think we've seen a lot of that YET...

 

You'll start seeing those changes later this year. Falvine aren't going to gut the FO just b/c. They need to figure out who needs to stay and who should go.

[Mike Sixel]

 

My issue is that Berrios isn't one of the five best pitchers now. He clearly has the upside, and he's close to ready, but letting him spend a month in Rochester while the team sorts out the rotation isn't a bad thing. He can work on those things he needs to work on and the Twins can jettison the guy that deserves being jettisoned instead of guessing. If everyone does well, you're flipping a guy like Santiago for a prospect and promoting Berrios. That also is a good thing.

 

Trades don't happen until June or July. They just don't.

 

[laloesch]

 

You'll start seeing those changes later this year. Falvine aren't going to gut the FO just b/c. They need to figure out who needs to stay and who should go.

 

I would think that they are evaluating everyone top to bottom.  A year will allow them to do that effectively.  Then start replacing / plugging new staff in.  Molitor is gone at years end IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He can work on those things he needs to work on and the Twins can jettison the guy that deserves being jettisoned instead of guessing.

And that's really the core of my argument. One could make a rationed argument that neither Gibson, Hughes, nor Santiago should be in the rotation to start the season.

 

Who do you cut? And why?

 

Or do you just let the three of them hammer it out over a handful of starts and then replace the weakest link with Berrios?

 

The latter makes a lot of sense to me, the one caveat being Hughes' velocity. If he's at 90mph, he really shouldn't be a consideration for the rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And that's really the core of my argument. One could make a rationed argument that neither Gibson, Hughes, nor Santiago should be in the rotation to start the season.

 

Who do you cut? And why?

 

Or do you just let the three of them hammer it out over a handful of starts and then replace the weakest link with Berrios?

 

The latter makes a lot of sense to me, the one caveat being Hughes' velocity. If he's at 90mph, he really shouldn't be a consideration for the rotation.

 

You are going to make what decision after 3-5 starts? Cutting a SP? After 3-5 starts?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You are going to make what decision after 3-5 starts? Cutting a SP? After 3-5 starts?

These things tend to sort themselves out very quickly. What's the likelihood the Twins make it out of mid-May without one injury in the rotation? 50/50?

 

And that's not even bringing up a possible demotion or outright release.