Rotation "Set"

[beckmt]

 

Do we really have to go through a prospect carousal to find out that all our pitching prospects aren't ready to be even average major leaguers yet? Look a at Gibby. Look at Hughes. Look at Santana. These were premium arms coming up who have been fairly pedestrian major leaguers. What are the odds that May, Berrios, Mejia, et al will be better than those guys at their peaks. Let alone early on. Hughes Gibby and Santana have had recent success. Better defense can help. A not 0-9 start will help. If we get to May or June and things are bad start looking. If May or Berrios had come up and killed it, they wouldn't be in this position. But they were called up before they were ready.

 

Some of these kids are victims to their own prospect ratings. We treat them like potential aces for no reason. Berrios is a AAA Ace. What is that in the majors?

 

Of course guys could develop. Happens occasionally. But it's not a great bet. A bet on Hughes or Gibby to rebound is a strong bet, imo. And we have a hedged bet if they don't bounce back. Then we can go get a hopefully more prepared prospect up.

 

If we have play them in the show in order to see what we have, we probably have crap. Do we need a year? Can't we see what we have in the guys with more/equal talent and a actual success before we see what we have in guys who haven't succeeded and aren't blue chip prospects like Gibby and Hughes were?

 

I agree process status does not equal major league status, but let's look at numbers. Gibson has one year with a 3 WAR(average to average+ major league pitcher. Hughes has about 2 years out of 6 with 3 WAR, Santiago I do not know, but will guess 2 years maybe 3 out of 5. Are any of these 3 going to be here in 2019, I hope not. Mejia, Berrios and May may not be any better, but moving a couple of these at least allows the evaluation process to play out. We probably will not be much worse and could be better. To me this is worth the risk. Hughes may well start on the DL if his velocity does not improve, so you have the room, and if you cannot find takers for Gibson and Santiago, you still have plan B.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

It might be cliche but there really is nothing left for Berrios in AAA. He is spinning his wheels there. I see no way in which pitching against WBC lineups and trying to win games will derail his spring. Can he not make adjustments to be effective during those games? Will he not get instruction and feedback from coaches on his team? Are the Twins for some reason not allowed to monitor his progress during the WBC and take that into account? 

 

 

Given his results last season, I think there's plenty for him to work on in AAA.  Just b/c he's better than the competition doesn't mean he doesn't have things to work on.  It just means that those items won't necessarily show up in the box scores.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Given his results last season, I think there's plenty for him to work on in AAA.  Just b/c he's better than the competition doesn't mean he doesn't have things to work on.  It just means that those items won't necessarily show up in the box scores.

Whatever is left to work on should be done with the major league staff. Tossing him back to AAA to mow down lineups and post another sub 3 ERA is a waste. This team isn't that good that they can't afford him time to tackle the learning curve. 

[South Dakota Tom]

This is, and always was going to be, a collaborative decision.    I know that there are economic considerations, but I also trust the basic philosophy of the organization at this point.    I would like very much to trust the people who constantly observe and interact with the players involved.    I'm on board that they are either playing their best players or trying to maximize their assets with a sure and certain goal in mind.

[snepp]

 

t.....if the Twins take action and cut him, they eat his contract, and he's a FA.

 

Less whatever a future team ends up compensating him, which is usually the league minimum.

[Thrylos]

 

Whatever is left to work on should be done with the major league staff. Tossing him back to AAA to mow down lineups and post another sub 3 ERA is a waste. This team isn't that good that they can't afford him time to tackle the learning curve. 

 

The same can be said for Duffey and Mejia, both of whom are arguably ahead of Berrios, because they sucked less than Berrios did last season.  No?  And both are still with the Twins, unlike Berrios

 

How about May?  Why should Berrios be handed a starting spot ahead of him, since he has out-pitched Berrios?

[amjgt]

Well, since Molitor hasn't exactly proven to be a very good foreseer, I would say there is an excellent chance something unforeseen happening.

[Old Twins Cap]

 

I've never understood this "based on his salary" issue for playing time. Once a player is signed his salary becomes a fixed expense like water for the playing field at Target Stadium. Unless committed player salaries are so high the team is pressed for cash (and with about $100 million is salaries, the Twins are not) then how much someone's salary is should not effect who is in the lineup, IMHO. The only decision should be the long term best interest of the Twins.

 

 

Glad you are not the Twins GM if you do not understand the "value" of starting your most expensive pitchers.  To wit:  They may represent a sunk cost, but they also represent the team's best opportunity to recoup value from that investment.

 

A Hughes, a Santana, a Santiago, one of them will have a good year, maybe a couple of them.  Now you can trade them at the deadline and get something of value.

 

Then you bring up your best talent from AAA to finish the year.

 

But giving up on an asset before they even start the season would be foolish to the point of non-sensical.

 

Once a veteran tanks and shows no signs of life, that's when it's hopeless.  At this point in the spring, everyone is a potential ace and a potential trading chip.  As GM and Manager, I am going to give that every chance to bloom.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

What I can say is this. I don't think Berrios is one of the 5 best starters right now... and I do think he's going to be in the rotation at some point due to injury and/or ineffectiveness.  Letting him start in AAA is just fine, especially given how bad he was last year.  He'll be up again, hopefully with much better results.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Punished?  Nope.  It is a choice that he made and it should have consequences.  If you are in a battle for a spot and you leave, it is natural that others will get ahead of him.   As is he will not pitch for 9 days after the last time he pitched.  And at this point both May and Mejia seem to be ahead of Berrios and they will be getting the ball every 5th day, so he will fall further behind.

Jeez, you are quite the baseball authoritarian. First Vargas, now Berrios. There has to be back channels during this tournament. Where team coaches can talk with the players and give them their take.

 

Your take is too hardlined, but soft boiled at the same time. Except for the possibility of injury, which is in play for these guys in ST as well. The competition will fuel there fire and I believe there is a better chance they will figure something new out or something will click, rather than face the assortment of has beens, never beens, and unknowns that they would face in Spring Training.

 

Except for the U.S. team, this is a charged tournament and it matters a whole helluva a lot to the non U.S. teams. These are grown men, they certainly won't sacrifice their futures and be wreckless. That's all they have. They are playing more important baseball than spring training.

[KirbyDome89]

 

The same can be said for Duffey and Mejia, both of whom are arguably ahead of Berrios, because they sucked less than Berrios did last season.  No?  And both are still with the Twins, unlike Berrios

 

How about May?  Why should Berrios be handed a starting spot ahead of him, since he has out-pitched Berrios?

Where did I say he should be handed a starting spot? 

 

I would love for all of those guys to have an actual chance at a rotation spot. Unfortunately that won't be the case hence the disapproval of many. 

 

The point is that Berrios shouldn't be punished for pitching in the WBC rather than Fort Meyers, especially when the Twins granted him permission to do so. 

[Jham]

 

Where did I say he should be handed a starting spot? 

 

I would love for all of those guys to have an actual chance at a rotation spot. Unfortunately that won't be the case hence the disapproval of many. 

 

The point is that Berrios shouldn't be punished for pitching in the WBC rather than Fort Meyers, especially when the Twins granted him permission to do so. 

I don't think he's saying he's being punished or anything like that.  It's just a decision that makes it more difficult to evaluate him when we already have a limited time, when his last chance to impress didn't go super well, and when he's not the next in line for the rotation.  

There's a difference between giving guys a shot at the rotation and holding a 12 man try out for 5 spots.  There were 2 spots open, 1 if Hughes is healthy.  Therefore, telling guys to be prepared to start is the proper instruction. There is waaaaay more to spring training then a few shortened outings against mixed talent.  How you conduct yourself, take instruction, throw to live hitters, hold up to the training and conditioning, and how you look in your bull pens are all just as helpful to a good coaching staff.  You may have to knock everyone's socks off to jump in the order, but wouldn't you still want that opportunity and do everything in your power to do so?  At the same time, guys get hurt, suspended, etc.  A lot of scenarios can STILL play out that would lead to the youthful rotation called for despite plan A being a mix of vets.  I really don't get all the angst.  Yes, the rotation was historically bad last year.  But that was as much Berrios' and Duffey's responsibility as Gibson's and way more their responsibility than Hughes or Santana.  

I will suggest that I would pencil in Berrios, Gonsalves, and Romero into the 2019 rotation.  And I will suggest that this will be the case regardless of whether I see them have MLB success this year or not.  In fact, if Berrios continued to struggle, will you give up on him?  I can't.  Then how much more do we know?  If he succeeds?  I had him penciled in already.  Everyone else falls into the category of remote to the point where looking at them for 2019 is foolish.  If they perform well enough to stick great.  If not, we weren't counting on them anyway.  That's as true of Gibson Santiago and Hughes as it is May or Duffy or Mejia.
 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

What I can say is this. I don't think Berrios is one of the 5 best starters right now... and I do think he's going to be in the rotation at some point due to injury and/or ineffectiveness. Letting him start in AAA is just fine, especially given how bad he was last year. He'll be up again, hopefully with much better results.

he might be one of the 5 best starters on this team but of the 6, he's the only one with options and there's a steep drop off between 6 and 7 and even steeper to 8

[beckmt]

How has this changed? Just because Berrios has options, he is the odd man out. Does he have anything to learn in AAA. The last 2 times in Rochester, he has just killed it.

Some of you believe you can run a ballplayer like a yo-yo and not do them any damage. Do you expect all players will be able to do this. There is something to be said for sending a young pitcher down when they are getting bombed, and there is something to letting grow up at the major league level. I think at least Falvey gets this, I do not know if his hands are tied by the Pohlad's desire to see Molitor succeed.

Gonsalves has dominated A+ and AA ball, you need to give him a chance and if he fails then let him do AAA. A lot of the AAA competition is AAAA type players who have been up and down and are looking for another chance. About half of the prospects jump from AA to the bigs.

For me the choice is to give the young pitchers a chance, maybe add a year to Molitor's contract(to get Pohlad to look the other way), and force him to try the youngsters. You may sacrifice this year, but in the long run you will be better off.

[Taildragger8791]

If the Twins send Berrios back to AAA it isn't a punishment and it isn't because they need to see him dominate AAA hitters again, so you may as well stop repeating those thoughts. Nobody is arguing those points.

 

The perfectly valid reasons for him to start in AAA is:

 

1) He's the only one with options and he hasn't demonstrated that he's any more ready than May to start. This is May's last opportunity and we have to find out now if he can hold down a starting gig. Hughes is the one that's really pushing him out.

 

2) He has to make real adjustments to his delivery to improve command and eliminate tipping his pitches. These are things he generally gets away with at AAA and gets absolutely clobbered for in the bigs. He'll get more practice on that in AAA by being in a more controlled environment and going deeper into games where he can build up confidence and repetitions. In the bigs he'd just be getting hammered and knocked out in 3 innings, slowing down his progress at the expense of MLB losses and the bullpen. The thing to remember here is he won't be evaluated on his box score, but by demonstrating to his coaches that he's made the necessary changes for succeeding at the highest level. So save yourself some heartburn when he isn't promoted the first two weeks just because you see some good lines on his stat sheet.

[ashbury]

especially when the Twins granted him permission to do so. 

This is something I've been meaning to touch on.

 

According to the WBC's website, the tournament is "operated as a joint venture between Major League Baseball and its Players Association."

 

So probably there are explicit rules, maybe right there in the Collective Bargaining Agreement by now, that specify when a major league team may forbid a player from taking part, and when they may not. And also, that teams must not treat players differently during/after Spring Training for having taken part.

 

MLB in its wisdom seems to want the WBC to succeed, so I expect that the franchises are strongly encouraged to grant requests when a player makes one of the tournament teams. Optioning a guy to AAA for having been in the tournament would be hard to prove, but I would think teams would steer clear.

[laloesch]

 

.... maybe add a year to Molitor's contract(to get Pohlad to look the other way), and force him to try the youngsters. 

 

 

NOOOOOO!

[Thrylos]

 

This is something I've been meaning to touch on.

 

According to the WBC's website, the tournament is "operated as a joint venture between Major League Baseball and its Players Association."

 

So probably there are explicit rules, maybe right there in the Collective Bargaining Agreement by now, that specify when a major league team may forbid a player from taking part, and when they may not. And also, that teams must not treat players differently during/after Spring Training for having taken part.

 

MLB in its wisdom seems to want the WBC to succeed, so I expect that the franchises are strongly encouraged to grant requests when a player makes one of the tournament teams. Optioning a guy to AAA for having been in the tournament would be hard to prove, but I would think teams would steer clear.

 

A couple of things (btw, this is a good read on WBC and about how teams feel about their players participating) :

 

- The process goes like this:

 

1. Players declare interest to WBC teams
2. WBC teams select players
3. MLB teams grant them permission to go

 

- It is very unusual for players who are in a bubble to want to play.  For example: ByungHo Park told the Korean team that he was not interested and once under contract with the Twins Breslow withdrew from team Israel to try to make the Twins.  In the WBC you either see Veterans who have made their teams or minor leaguers with no hope to make their MLB team (like Dereck Rodriguez for the Twins)

 

- Number 3 above is pretty typical.  It is very rare for a team not to grant permission and those conversations usually happen before the players indicate interest to the WBC teams.  Not granting permission is bad politics, because it is MLB-sponsored and all that jazz, but teams hate to have players they depend on to play at the WBC, esp. pitchers whose preparation gets all out of whack.

 

- So players like Berrios, Santiago, Vargas, and Rosario are putting themselves at a disadvantage by participating and they know it.  By participating definitely show that they do not care whether or not the will prepare like the rest of their teammates and have an optimal spring training to turn that mess of a team around, as much as playing for their Commonwealth's team.

 

The point is not that the Twins have granted them permission (they pretty much had to.)  They should have assessed their situation and the team's situation and should had know better than to ask.

 

 

PS. Winter ball is different: 3 parties: players, winter team, MLB team.  All have the right to ask and the right to deny.  And usually all happens all the time.  There are times that the Twins have asked players to play winter ball (last one Hicks) and the players declined, and vice versa.

 

[Willihammer]

This thread is evidence that ST is mostly a formality. If not totally a formality. I doubt there is much "disadvantage" players can be putting themselves in by playing in the WBC.

 

I'll admit that if Vargas doesn't get many AB's then he may present the Twins with a decision, because Park is getting PAs and on paper anyway, doing the most with those PAs. Although nobody would be surprised if Park goes to AAA and Vargas is brought north anyway, for obvious reasons.

[Vanimal46]

 

- So players like Berrios, Santiago, Vargas, and Rosario are putting themselves at a disadvantage by participating and they know it.  By participating definitely show that they do not care whether or not the will prepare like the rest of their teammates and have an optimal spring training to turn that mess of a team around, as much as playing for their Commonwealth's team.

 

 

This has been your favorite hot sports take all winter long.... You can't say with such authority that players don't care because they choose to play in the WBC. It's getting very old. 

[Thrylos]

 

This has been your favorite hot sports take all winter long.... You can't say with such authority that players don't care because they choose to play in the WBC. It's getting very old. 

 

Are you suggesting that by choosing to play in their WBC and taking up to 3 weeks off Spring Training, a player shows that they care more about their MLB team than their WBC team? 

 

Really?

[Jham]

 

How has this changed? Just because Berrios has options, he is the odd man out. Does he have anything to learn in AAA. The last 2 times in Rochester, he has just killed it.
Some of you believe you can run a ballplayer like a yo-yo and not do them any damage. Do you expect all players will be able to do this. There is something to be said for sending a young pitcher down when they are getting bombed, and there is something to letting grow up at the major league level. I think at least Falvey gets this, I do not know if his hands are tied by the Pohlad's desire to see Molitor succeed.
Gonsalves has dominated A+ and AA ball, you need to give him a chance and if he fails then let him do AAA. A lot of the AAA competition is AAAA type players who have been up and down and are looking for another chance. About half of the prospects jump from AA to the bigs.
For me the choice is to give the young pitchers a chance, maybe add a year to Molitor's contract(to get Pohlad to look the other way), and force him to try the youngsters. You may sacrifice this year, but in the long run you will be better off.

Check walk rates for Berrios and Gonsalves.  Compare their histories with that of say Jose De Leon since he was almost a Twin.  When you get to the MLB, you need to learn to hit spots while still being aggressive.  Really hard to do.  It's hard to be aggressive when the ball is flying all over the field.  Your instinct will be to pick at the corners rather than to attack.  Pretty soon you have a pitcher who is afraid to pitch inside, afraid to get ahead in the count.  And maybe starts aiming instead of throwing, further messing with mechanics.  These kids are putting great numbers in MiLB.  But they're not necessarily great MiLB numbers.  There are guys who put up video game stats against inferior competition.  

I don't see how you could watch Berrios pitch last year and think he has nothing more to work on at the AAA level.  He needs to refine his control, his delivery, his confidence, pitching out of the stretch, his aggression.  It was evident that he was getting through the minors on talent alone, not a major league ready pitching approach.  If he tries to fix it in the Majors, he'll probably get clobbered and go back to old habits.  

I'm excited about Gonsalves because he looks like Andrew Miller.  That said, he's probably not.  But I've never seen him pitch.  I do know scouts suggest he is not a blue chip guy and that he's not ready for MLB. 

True major league talents can go down to AAA and mow through subpar talent.  

Look at what Ricky Nolasco and Francisco Liriano have done in the Minors just rehabbing injuries: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3830&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3201&position=P

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Are you suggesting that by choosing to play in their WBC and taking up to 3 weeks off Spring Training, a player shows that they care more about their MLB team than their WBC team? 

 

Really?

 

No, we are suggesting they aren't taking 3 weeks off, for one thing.

 

I don't think it says anything about what they care about, Berrios has dreamed of being in the majors his whole life, do you actually think he doesn't care about the Twins and that dream, because he is playing in the WBC? That seems ridiculous on its face, frankly. 

[Thrylos]

 

No, we are suggesting they aren't taking 3 weeks off, for one thing.

 

I don't think it says anything about what they care about, Berrios has dreamed of being in the majors his whole life, do you actually think he doesn't care about the Twins and that dream, because he is playing in the WBC? That seems ridiculous on its face, frankly. 

 

No, I am not saying that.  Saying that would be analogous to saying that someone who dreamt all his life to do something, like going to college, does not care about it, because he went behind the gym with his buddies got drunk and got caught.  Lapse of judgement.  Bad decision.  It happens.

 

Yes I am suggesting that if you are young pitcher on the bubble of making a team, it is a lapse of judgement and bad decision to leave your team during Spring Training.

 

And, yes, they are taking 3 weeks off from learning their new catchers and having their young infielders behind them figuring out how they pitch, and they are taking 3 weeks off doing team drills, like their teammates. 

 

[mikelink45]

 

Stat for Stat last years squad was the worst pitching staff we've seen in 20 years (since 1996).  That's saying A LOT!  That was one of the dark ages (mid 90's) for this franchise.  I'm sure there were others but i'm not old enough to remember anything before 1985.

I will fill in since I am old enough to see all the teams and, yes, this is the worst.  We always had a Dave Goltz, Pascual, Kaat, Boswell, Blyleven, Viola, Radtke...and they gave us a reasonable chance - Santana is that guy for this team, but his performance does not measure up to those former Twin rotation leaders.  Of course it is the sum of all five pitchers that really counts (or doesn't count) and we have had some historically bad groups. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/staff.shtml

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, I am not saying that.  Saying that would be analogous to saying that someone who dreamed all his life to do something, like going to college, does not care about it, because he went behind the gym with his buddies got drunk and got caught.  Lapse of judgement.  Bad decision.  It happens.

 

Yes I am suggesting that if you are young pitcher on the bubble of making a team, it is a lapse of judgement and bad decision to leave your team during Spring Training.

 

And, yes, they are taking 3 weeks off from learning their new catchers and having their young infielders behind them figuring out how they pitch, and they are taking 3 weeks off doing team drills, like their teammates. 

 

Fair, I think we'll just politely disagree on this topic.

[Physics Guy]

 

Fair, I think we'll just politely disagree on this topic.

Has anybody thought that maybe the Twins are OK with this because it is an easy way out for them to start Berrios at AAA.  It makes their decisions easier, unless of course Berrios tears it up at the WBC.

[Willihammer]

If the Twins were to use WBC participation as justification for a roster decision that would have to violate the MLB-MLBPA agreement on WBC participation. What the consequences might be I have no idea.

[Thrylos]

 

If the Twins were to use WBC participation as justification for a roster decision that would have to violate the MLB-MLBPA agreement on WBC participation. What the consequences might be I have no idea.

 

WBC participation is not covered in the CBA so anything the teams do regarding it, will not violate that...

 

2017-2022 CBA outline here.

[Willihammer]

 

WBC participation is not covered in the CBA so anything the teams do regarding it, will not violate that...

 

2017-2022 CBA outline here.

As Ash noted the MLB and players jointly operate the WBC. Is that true or not?