Rotation "Set"

[Riverbrian]

I'd like May to get that fifth spot and I have no problem with Berrios starting in Rochester. 

 

As for the other 4 that were named... It doesn't matter to me right now... Who Was Named and When they were named doesn't matter.

 

I've never wanted spring training performance to be a deciding factor. We all saw Hicks win a job in spring training and we all saw what happened afterwards.

 

I think the team should have a good idea who is coming North before spring training begins because that is what a GM is preparing for all winter. 

 

But... I will say this... and this matters greatly to me... Once the regular season starts... Molitor/Falvey/Lavine better have a quick hook with this rotation. If Gibson is still cranking out a 5 plus ERA or Hughes... or Santiago. There better be a move made quickly regardless of salary or investment. If Hughes is tossing a 5 ERA in September and STILL ENTRENCHED IN THE ROTATION... Then I will be disappointed and judgmental. 

 

I will have very little tolerance of Vet under performance in 2017 after having to tolerate Vet under performance from beginning to end in 2016. So... Fine... Give them a shot... It's not a surprise but be ready to give someone else a shot if they fail and be ready quickly. 2016 was the last of the grace period. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'm not too concerned about this. Yeah, I don't like it, but within 3 weeks of Opening Day Hughes will likely be on the DL or have an ERA north of 6.00, hopefully prompting management to send him to the bullpen.

 

Fingers crossed that you know more than I do...

[Taildragger8791]

 

How about not including the 10-outing cup of coffee rookie season when making an evaluation - since it's a ridiculously SSS.

 

If you do that, his average WAR is just shy of 2. I'll take that for a 3-5 spot in the rotation, which is where most everyone I've seen defending him on here expects him to be. I don't think anyone is suggesting any longer that he's going to be a #1 or #2 - so everyone agrees with you that he's back of the rotation type of guy.

 

I think that 2 WAR is basically Gibson's ceiling and his floor is obviously quite a bit lower, as evidenced by last year. 2 WAR shouldn't be the expectation, but the hope. My issue with him is he's so inconsistent. He seems to either give you a great game or sometimes short stretches of good games, or (more commonly) he's completely ineffective and gets lit up like a Christmas tree. When you average it all out it doesn't seem so bad but it hides how he taxed the bullpen and gave the team no chance to win in at least half of his starts.

 

That wonderful 2015 that people like to point to as evidence that he's a good pitcher has some devils in the details. That season was anchored by a crazy strong month of May where he had a 1.36 ERA, something he has never come close to repeating (never within 2.40 of that in a single month again). He also had a couple of decent months at 3.73 and 3.93. Unfortunately he added three other months with ERAs of 4.84, 4.70, and 5.29. That speaks to what I was saying about how he can put together short competitive stretches (usually in the 3.70-4.00 range) but he'll also put up god awful stretches where he buries his team right off the bat. That's not a #3 pitcher and it's not a #4 pitcher on a good team. I'm not even sure anyone would accept that out of a #5 if they had playoff aspirations.

 

Yes, I realize a month is a short sample size but it's the quickest and easiest way to illustrate how volatile of a pitcher he is, and how his overall numbers hide how ineffective he is in a significant proportion of appearances. If he put up a 4.40 ERA every month he'd be a much easier pitcher to live with as your #4 or #5, but the fact that he will single-handedly bury your team in half his starts is difficult to swallow.

 

Edit:

Disclaimer: No, I'm not advocating for cutting Gibson at this time. They're basically committed to trying him out this year to see if he can make an adjustment and recover his career. But he shouldn't be a lock to keep his position if he's sitting on a 5.00+ ERA mid-season and there are other young pitchers available to try out. He's not as proven or established and people like to believe and we need to keep looking to improve on his roster spot.

[Seth Stohs]

 

You said people would prepare differently, I asked how. I was genuinely curious about that in my post. 

 

Ervin Santana can have an outing where he throws nothing but changeups for an inning, and then throws nothing but curveballs the next innings, and then only works on fastball location the next inning. His results don't matter.

 

Kyle Gibson is working on his mechanics. He can focus on fastballs and see how much movement he gets, or he can try different pitch sequences... or whatever.

 

For those competing for a job (May, Berrios, Mejia, Vogelsong, whoever), they probably need to put up some numbers. They likely need to 'win' a job, so they have not not only prepare their pitches and increase their work loads, but they need to beat someone out. 

[Champuckett]

Welp, this should expedite the breaking up/trading/demoting process of said starting rotation sooner than was hoped. Thank you Molitor.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Ervin Santana can have an outing where he throws nothing but changeups for an inning, and then throws nothing but curveballs the next innings, and then only works on fastball location the next inning. His results don't matter.

 

Kyle Gibson is working on his mechanics. He can focus on fastballs and see how much movement he gets, or he can try different pitch sequences... or whatever.

 

For those competing for a job (May, Berrios, Mejia, Vogelsong, whoever), they probably need to put up some numbers. They likely need to 'win' a job, so they have not not only prepare their pitches and increase their work loads, but they need to beat someone out.

yeah, but the vitriol is that there are already 4 locks when there should only be 1-3 locks. I assumed that the 4 current locks were locked-in on feb 5, however my feeling is that Santana and Gibson were the only two that should be locked-in.

 

I don't really care what Hughes, Santiago, Gibson, or Santana earn, or if they are in the best shape of their lives. I care that they are effective and the best options available. Berrios and May are both probably better options than Santiago and maybe a healthy Hughes.

 

I also get that depth is an important part of this equation, and i think that is missing here.

 

It seems that Mejia and Berrios are destined for AAA until there are more AA/AAA pitchers ready to back fill them as quality reserves to the 25 man roster.

[Thrylos]

 

Ervin Santana can have an outing where he throws nothing but changeups for an inning, and then throws nothing but curveballs the next innings, and then only works on fastball location the next inning. His results don't matter.

 

Kyle Gibson is working on his mechanics. He can focus on fastballs and see how much movement he gets, or he can try different pitch sequences... or whatever.

 

For those competing for a job (May, Berrios, Mejia, Vogelsong, whoever), they probably need to put up some numbers. They likely need to 'win' a job, so they have not not only prepare their pitches and increase their work loads, but they need to beat someone out. 

 

May was on the record today saying that he will be working on throwing his changeup on any count in his next outing.   So he should be included in the A group

 

[kab21]

These locks should change nobody. Pitchers without options earning fairly significant guaranteed money (spring training cuts of arb contracts like Santiago or Gibson are extremely rare AFAIK) will always have to pitch themselves out of the rotation. And I highly, highly doubt that any young pitcher worth pitching (not the Pat Dean's) at the MLB level will get a fair shot. If they don't then they are not pitching well. It is possible that they come up 6-10 starts later than wanted but they will get their shot.

 

This rotation (and the prospects coming up soon) looks mediocre (definitely not great) and that is discouraging. The Twins really needed 1-2 young starters to concretely claim a spot in the past 2 years. Instead Duffey bombed out spectacularly with A LOT of leash given, May got lost in the bullpen, Berrios bombed in his 1st season, Gibson has fizzled and Meyer never got a shot (nor really made a case for it with a 4.50 BB/9 in AAA). 

[David HK]

Well, pitching staff last in nearly every conceivable category last year--  of course, we should stick with exactly the same guys, and jerk Mr. May around yet another year.

 

Just one more log on the fire- that we should have cleaned out the dugout at the end of last season.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Berrios, May, Gonsalves, Haley, Duffey, Vogelsgang.....

 

That's why there's a competition for the fifth starter spot. None of these are -- or should be -- ironclad. 

[TheLeviathan]

I know we have to treat Hughes like he's locked into the rotation for a variety of reasons, but I hope the leash is super short.  

 

And I hope Phil understands why it has to be that way.

[gunnarthor]

 

That works when you have an ace at the front of the rotation, or two very good starters in the 1 and 2 postitions.  Pitching wins ballgames and the Twins do not have a front of the rotation piece at this time.  Therefore we cannot afford a back of the rotation pitcher in the back of the rotation.  We need a player or players who need evaluation over the next two years, to see if they are the future or we need to find other pitchers to fill these spots, you cannot wait until next year for this or you will see more of the SSS comments.

I'm honestly not sure what you're trying to say. Gibson is easily one of the Twins five best pitchers going forward. Right now the pitching depth (in order) looks to be Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, May.  Behind those five are Mejia, Berrios and Duffey. After that, it's filler until the AA kids knock on the door. Berrios has the highest ceiling but hasn't pitched well and starting him at AAA isn't a huge issue, esp since he'll miss much of ST with the WBC. Mejia and Duffey are guys who, if it works out, will be no better than Gibson. And Gibson should be ahead of Santiago and Hughes on any list. So I'm really not sure what you're suggesting other than you want different pitchers. Which is fine but not overly helpful.

[Linus]

This is crazy to me. You had the worst rotation in MLB last year and you lock in 80% of the same stuff? With two young starters waiting in the wings?

[beckmt]

 

I'm honestly not sure what you're trying to say. Gibson is easily one of the Twins five best pitchers going forward. Right now the pitching depth (in order) looks to be Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, May.  Behind those five are Mejia, Berrios and Duffey. After that, it's filler until the AA kids knock on the door. Berrios has the highest ceiling but hasn't pitched well and starting him at AAA isn't a huge issue, esp since he'll miss much of ST with the WBC. Mejia and Duffey are guys who, if it works out, will be no better than Gibson. And Gibson should be ahead of Santiago and Hughes on any list. So I'm really not sure what you're suggesting other than you want different pitchers. Which is fine but not overly helpful.

You seem to have missed the point.  We need to evaluate pitchers now and in 2018.  We cannot give older vets who will not be here in 2 seasons starts to get the Twins to mediocre instead of bad or possibly good this year.  When 2019 comes you will be in the arbitration years of your best players.  Do you want them playing behind at pitching staff with a team ERA of about 4.5 and several pitchers you do not know if they will be part of the solution or part of the problem.  I do not so I want to go young this year and next and then if you need to fill holes in 2019, there is a big FA group of #1 and #2 starters on the open market.  We cannot and should not waste this chance by giving innings to pitchers who will not be here in 2019.  That is my point.

[gunnarthor]

 

You seem to have missed the point.  We need to evaluate pitchers now and in 2018.  We cannot give older vets who will not be here in 2 seasons starts to get the Twins to mediocre instead of bad or possibly good this year.  When 2019 comes you will be in the arbitration years of your best players.  Do you want them playing behind at pitching staff with a team ERA of about 4.5 and several pitchers you do not know if they will be part of the solution or part of the problem.  I do not so I want to go young this year and next and then if you need to fill holes in 2019, there is a big FA group of #1 and #2 starters on the open market.  We cannot and should not waste this chance by giving innings to pitchers who will not be here in 2019.  That is my point.

I'm not sure how starting Gibson goes against your proposal. Who do you think should be starting on opening day? My guess is that at the end of the year, the five starters with the most IP at the ML will be Santana, Gibson, Berrios, May and Santiago.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

You seem to have missed the point. We need to evaluate pitchers now and in 2018. We cannot give older vets who will not be here in 2 seasons starts to get the Twins to mediocre instead of bad or possibly good this year. When 2019 comes you will be in the arbitration years of your best players. Do you want them playing behind at pitching staff with a team ERA of about 4.5 and several pitchers you do not know if they will be part of the solution or part of the problem. I do not so I want to go young this year and next and then if you need to fill holes in 2019, there is a big FA group of #1 and #2 starters on the open market. We cannot and should not waste this chance by giving innings to pitchers who will not be here in 2019. That is my point.

i agree, but if you DFA Santiago in favor of Berrios and Hughes comes up lame, what do you do? My opinion is there isn't enough double A depth ready for big league duty to put your ML roster at risk.

 

The Dozier for De Leon + other prospects trade didn't happen, but needed to in order to make this scenario feasible

[gunnarthor]

 

This is crazy to me. You had the worst rotation in MLB last year and you lock in 80% of the same stuff? With two young starters waiting in the wings?

That's not really what they did though. Only Gibson and Santana were in our top 6 for games started last year. The Twins have removed Duffey (26 starts), Nolasco (21), Berrios (14) and Milone (12) from the opening day rotation (assuming Berrios starts in AAA). Santiago and Hughes combined for 22 starts and May had none.

[beckmt]

 

I'm not sure how starting Gibson goes against your proposal. Who do you think should be starting on opening day? My guess is that at the end of the year, the five starters with the most IP at the ML will be Santana, Gibson, Berrios, May and Santiago.

 

I'm not sure how starting Gibson goes against your proposal. Who do you think should be starting on opening day? My guess is that at the end of the year, the five starters with the most IP at the ML will be Santana, Gibson, Berrios, May and Santiago.

My starting 5 would be from a group of Santana, Berrios, May, Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia.  You start Hughes on the DL if his fastball is not up a couple of ticks.  With all the pitchers going down this spring, you should be able to get something for Gibson and Santiago.  If you decide to keep Gibson, you had better plan on using a defensive first SS on the days he pitches.  Do not dislike Santiago, just think you should get something of value for him, and he will not be here next year.    I am looking for solutions for the ongoing pitching issues now instead of later.  Others are kicking the can down the road.

 

[Linus]

That's not really what they did though. Only Gibson and Santana were in our top 6 for games started last year. The Twins have removed Duffey (26 starts), Nolasco (21), Berrios (14) and Milone (12) from the opening day rotation (assuming Berrios starts in AAA). Santiago and Hughes combined for 22 starts and May had none.

Agreed. But Gibson, Hughes et AL have been horrible. No way guys should have a pre-determined spot.

[nicksaviking]

That's why there's a competition for the fifth starter spot. None of these are -- or should be -- ironclad.

 

Few are debating that. We're wondering how it's possible that Phil Hughes is ironclad.

[gunnarthor]

 

My starting 5 would be from a group of Santana, Berrios, May, Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia.  You start Hughes on the DL if his fastball is not up a couple of ticks.  With all the pitchers going down this spring, you should be able to get something for Gibson and Santiago.  If you decide to keep Gibson, you had better plan on using a defensive first SS on the days he pitches.  Do not dislike Santiago, just think you should get something of value for him, and he will not be here next year.    I am looking for solutions for the ongoing pitching issues now instead of later.  Others are kicking the can down the road.

Romero and Gonsalves simply aren't ready to pitch at the ML level yet. It's not that they're blocked, it's that they aren't ready. (You might also need to temper your enthusiasm for Gonsalves). If you think Santiago and Gibson aren't worth starting now, why do you think rival GMs would?

 

It seems to me that you are trying to have a rotation that perfectly matches with the hitters and grows with them. That never happens. When Buxton and Sano win their first world series, they'll have a fairly random group of starting pitchers and maybe only two will be in the rotation when Buxton and Sano win their second world series for us. Having a several year run of the same group of pitchers is pretty rare but I do agree that the Twins should find some pitchers who can be ML quality pitchers with us for a few years and not more Pat Dean types.

[kab21]

 

i agree, but if you DFA Santiago in favor of Berrios and Hughes comes up lame, what do you do? My opinion is there isn't enough double A depth ready for big league duty to put your ML roster at risk.

The Dozier for De Leon + other prospects trade didn't happen, but needed to in order to make this scenario feasible

that is really the issue. Openings are likely to occur very, very quickly and every young pitching prospect worth pitching is going to get a chance. As a matter of fact with the uncertainty in our 'set' rotation and the inconsistency of the prospects coming up I think it is only a matter of time before the 'Pat Dean's and Yohan Pino's' of the 2017 season are up.

I am really pulling for Hughes but I think the O/U for him this year is 8 games before heading to the DL or bullpen because of ineffectiveness. There will certainly be opportunities for the prospects.

[Physics Guy]

I agree with the sentiment of having Berrios, Duffey, Meija in AAA gives us less likelihood of seeing starters like Albers and Dean this year. Let the vets start the season in the rotation and move them out when they've outlasted their usefulness.

 

I don't understand the problem with Gibson. Discounting his abbreviated rookie season, he has 2.0, 3.2 and 0.6 WAR seasons. Let's remember that Gibson was not healthy last season. If he is a 2-3 WAR pitcher, he is a useful #3-4 starter.

[beckmt]

 

Romero and Gonsalves simply aren't ready to pitch at the ML level yet. It's not that they're blocked, it's that they aren't ready. (You might also need to temper your enthusiasm for Gonsalves). If you think Santiago and Gibson aren't worth starting now, why do you think rival GMs would?

 

It seems to me that you are trying to have a rotation that perfectly matches with the hitters and grows with them. That never happens. When Buxton and Sano win their first world series, they'll have a fairly random group of starting pitchers and maybe only two will be in the rotation when Buxton and Sano win their second world series for us. Having a several year run of the same group of pitchers is pretty rare but I do agree that the Twins should find some pitchers who can be ML quality pitchers with us for a few years and not more Pat Dean types.

 

I agree with the sentiment of having Berrios, Duffey, Meija in AAA gives us less likelihood of seeing starters like Albers and Dean this year. Let the vets start the season in the rotation and move them out when they've outlasted their usefulness.

I don't understand the problem with Gibson. Discounting his abbreviated rookie season, he has 2.0, 3.2 and 0.6 WAR seasons. Let's remember that Gibson was not healthy last season. If he is a 2-3 WAR pitcher, he is a useful #3-4 starter.

 

My point is this, after the 2018 season there will be the greatest group of upper level starting pitchers available since this system started.  If you do not know what you have in the upper levels of the system, how are you going to know what pitching help you need.  Twins will still have 2-3 years of not super expensive contracts for their position players, they should be able to compete on signing one or two of those pitchers.  The group of Twins youngsters will not know what to work on and Twins FO will not be that sure of what we have if this group of 6-8 starting pitchers do not get sorted out in the next 2 years.  Waiting for them in 2018 will turn into waiting for them in 2019 and then if we do not extend the core(who may be tired of losing) we are back to a rebuild.  We are a mid level team, not like the 1990's-2000's where you had to catch lightning in a bottle. (All your players being good at the same time).

As far as Gibson goes, to say he is going to average 2 WAR with below average infield defense is a stretch, also you may think 2 WAR is fine, but when you have a staff of pitchers around 2 WAR, I do not think 10 WAR is a major league average staff.  You need to find pitchers who have a bigger upside.

If you want to keep one of the pitchers, I would keep Santiago who seems to have more upside and as a fly ball pitcher, plays into the strength of the Twins defense.

[The Wise One]

 

My point is this, after the 2018 season there will be the greatest group of upper level starting pitchers available since this system started.  If you do not know what you have in the upper levels of the system, how are you going to know what pitching help you need.  Twins will still have 2-3 years of not super expensive contracts for their position players, they should be able to compete on signing one or two of those pitchers.  The group of Twins youngsters will not know what to work on and Twins FO will not be that sure of what we have if this group of 6-8 starting pitchers do not get sorted out in the next 2 years.  Waiting for them in 2018 will turn into waiting for them in 2019 and then if we do not extend the core(who may be tired of losing) we are back to a rebuild.  We are a mid level team, not like the 1990's-2000's where you had to catch lightning in a bottle. (All your players being good at the same time).

As far as Gibson goes, to say he is going to average 2 WAR with below average infield defense is a stretch, also you may think 2 WAR is fine, but when you have a staff of pitchers around 2 WAR, I do not think 10 WAR is a major league average staff.  You need to find pitchers who have a bigger upside.

If you want to keep one of the pitchers, I would keep Santiago who seems to have more upside and as a fly ball pitcher, plays into the strength of the Twins defense.

Average starting pitcher WAR/team was 11. Ervin, Hughes and Gibson are all capable of putting up 2.5 WAR seasons . Plenty here think May would be another. There would need to be  only one mediocre pitcher to have a league average staff. That would be ok if all the team wants is a league average record.  It seems like the better teams have 2-3 pitchers who can get to the 4 and above  level.  Hughes did it once. Berrios might be that kind of pitcher in a couple years. Jay, Romero Gonsalves might be that kind of pitcher. 3-4 more years, maybe there will be an answer.  It took Porcello a long time to get there. 2020 is a long ways away for seeing what they have

 

[beckmt]

Average starting pitcher WAR/team was 11. Ervin, Hughes and Gibson are all capable of putting up 2.5 WAR seasons . Plenty here think May would be another. There would need to be  only one mediocre pitcher to have a league average staff. That would be ok if all the team wants is a league average record.  It seems like the better teams have 2-3 pitchers who can get to the 4 and above  level.  Hughes did it once. Berrios might be that kind of pitcher in a couple years. Jay, Romero Gonsalves might be that kind of pitcher. 3-4 more years, maybe there will be an answer.  It took Porcello a long time to get there. 2020 is a long ways away for seeing what they have

Most of the playoff teams in my estimation(I do not have the numbers infront of me)would have a starting pitcher WAR of 15 or higher. Kansas City 2015 was built a different way(also a valid way), but Twins are a ways from this model(not saying they could not use it). My point is at the current time Twins are at best a league average staff, and most of it will not be here after 2018.

2018 is a special year in that after the season many of the staff aces will be available in FA.(along with some other very good pitchers). If you do not have your own talent evaluated at the major league level, how are you going to base if you need to buy into this class at the time(you will be buying a fair amount of downside at the end of those 7 year type contracts). I want to hit the window the Twins have at full stride, and you cannot do that if the current pitching staff is 2 years behind at that time. Twins in the mid 80's took this approach and it worked out. You may take more lumps(and get higher draft picks), but you will know what you have at that time.

Draft will be important and I am still in Greene's corner, but a college pitcher could step up and get to the point where they could help in the next year or two. Twins need higher level pitching, not the same old same old we are looking to see this year. I would rather suffer with the kids than to go with this expected staff and have a fire sale if it happens(as I expect)they are not good enough. Plus you have a better chance now of getting something for the midlevel starters, than at midseason where some of them will have no value.

[Platoon]

While seniority and long term big dollar contracts make competion for starting spots a charade, a manager could make his life easier, and his job more effective by not being quite as specifically chatty. Good grief, it's the first week in March, what's the rush. All you do is comlicate the flexibility to respond to future developments, without any perceptible gain for the players, the orginisation, or yourself.

[Ncgo4]

I've never understood this "based on his salary" issue for playing time. Once a player is signed his salary becomes a fixed expense like water for the playing field at Target Stadium. Unless committed player salaries are so high the team is pressed for cash (and with about $100 million is salaries, the Twins are not) then how much someone's salary is should not effect who is in the lineup, IMHO. The only decision should be the long term best interest of the Twins.

 

Does anyone think that long term Hughes is a major contributor to the Twin's success? Or are Berrios and May more likely to fit that criteria? Unless Hughes miraculously finds his fastball he should not be in the lineup. The Twins should be finding out at the ML level if one of their younger arms will be able to contribute long term.

 

Beside, any embarrassment over the Hughes contract falls on prior management.

[Boom Boom]

I don't know why anyone would be surprised about this.

 

Molitor has demonstrated a Gardy-like preference for veterans, and he's on the last year of his contract. If he's going to save his job he's got no time to throw Berrios out there to take lumps.

[gman]

I hope most of this rotation comes with for sale signs and pitch well enough to be traded by July.