Rotation "Set"

[Mike Sixel]

 

Aside from those guys they don't really have anybody else.

 

Berrios, May, Gonsalves, Haley, Duffey, Vogelsgang.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah but he was put in the pen late last year.  I figured he'd have to show something to get back out.  (And maybe he has).  But I was hoping the team would wait.  That said, if he's struggling at the end of March, I'm not convinced his place in the rotation is set.

Hughes was only put in the bullpen by the Twins twice, briefly, and both times the decision had specific health components.  Unless this March ineffectiveness has a specific health component to it, I think he gets first crack at a rotation spot this year.

[Willihammer]

 

Berrios, May, Gonsalves, Haley, Duffey, Vogelsgang.....

And Mejia.

[Mike Sixel]

This is not a surprise. I would put him in the bullpen, over his career (other than 1 great year) he's been better there. 

 

If by this time next year they don't know which of Gonsalves, Berrios, May are part of the future, this season is likely to have been a failure.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

And Mejia.

 

Good point. I like him more than most of the names I typed. He's also 1/16th the cost of Santiago and Gibson.....(actually, I have no idea what Gibson makes).

[Halsey Hall]

The rotation isn't set in stone, but barring something unforeseen, those 4 probably set up to lead off. There's no way May and Berrios aren't going about their work as if they aren't in the rotation, and most likely a couple of new guys going at it the same way. 

 

It's a long spring this year, pitchers could get 7-8 starts. Everyone will get long looks, and not everyone will come out of this without injuries. I only see 6 starters I'd take for the rotation and someone's going down with a bad something or other. I think we're a little thin really, for the rotation.

[strumdatjaguar]

There seem to be more reports of various Twins pitchers trying different pitches and approaches to pitching (Trevor May watching out for tipping off pitches by how he handles the ball in the glove, for example).   Maybe Molitor thinks that announcing his staff lets those pitchers feel free to experiment during Spring Training, without fear of losing their jobs.  Nevertheless, I don't think anyone "not named Ervin" has earned that luxury.

[Seth Stohs]

 

What would change for any of them if it was set in 2 weeks? I literally have no idea, hence my question.

 

But aside from injury updates, what's the point in not pointing it out?

[Mike Sixel]

 

But aside from injury updates, what's the point in not pointing it out?

 

You said people would prepare differently, I asked how. I was genuinely curious about that in my post. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Santiago and Gibson could be cut with only 1/4 of their contract paid until about the last week of March.  Why are they set in stone, along with Hughes who is already a sunk cost.

You may have to spend money now to save money later when you have to make decisions without knowing if the young pitchers are going to make it or not.

I wasn't a big fan of resigning Santiago this offseason but I can't imagine any of those guys being cut before the end of the month. Idk if I would advocate for cutting both of them (although if they could travel back in time and use that 9 million they spent on Santiago to bring back relief help I certainly wouldn't complain.) 

 

I agree with the sentiment about the young pitchers. There is still part of me that worries about whether the Twins will actually pull the plug on guys like Hughes/Gibson/Santiago if and when its necessary for the younger arms to join the rotation. 

[gunnarthor]

I think there needs to be some calming down a bit here.  Gibson should be a starter.  He's still young and cost controlled. He was a big investment by the Twins.  And he's had some good solid seasons.  He's not an ace but he can be a good pitcher on a good team.  Talk about cutting him is silly.

[beckmt]

 

I think there needs to be some calming down a bit here.  Gibson should be a starter.  He's still young and cost controlled. He was a big investment by the Twins.  And he's had some good solid seasons.  He's not an ace but he can be a good pitcher on a good team.  Talk about cutting him is silly.

Why do you feel this.  He has had 1 good year out of 3-4.  To me he is back of rotation material and with the Twins left side of the infield defense do not see a fit here.  We need to find out what options we have for starting pitching going forward,  I am not saying to release him, but get something(anything) for him before he has another bad year and truly becomes a pumpkin.

[Broker]

 

Berrios, May, Gonsalves, Haley, Duffey, Vogelsgang.....

Those guy couldn't crack the rotation last year. I imagine they'll get more chances this year but day one.

[gunnarthor]

 

Why do you feel this.  He has had 1 good year out of 3-4.  To me he is back of rotation material and with the Twins left side of the infield defense do not see a fit here.  We need to find out what options we have for starting pitching going forward,  I am not saying to release him, but get something(anything) for him before he has another bad year and truly becomes a pumpkin.

He had a crappy 10 start rookie season and followed that with a 2 and 3 WAR season.  Last year sucked. If you think pitch framing is real, than Castro should help.  But Gibson is one of the pitching options the Twins need to know about.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

He had a crappy 10 start rookie season and followed that with a 2 and 3 WAR season.  Last year sucked. If you think pitch framing is real, than Castro should help.  But Gibson is one of the pitching options the Twins need to know about.  

 

I agree on Gibson. I just hope that if Hughes isn't good, they don't wait 3 months to decide. My "biggest" concern is that all these guys are just bad enough for the Twins to lose, and just good enough that they won't promote the young guys and learn about them.

 

I want Berrios here as long as possible. I want him FULLY ready in 12-18 months, not 3 years from now. I want to know if May, Gonsalves, Meija are part of the future or not (or have some idea when it comes to Gonsalves). Lots of mediocre veteran pitching that they are reluctant to move on from makes that less likely. 

[beckmt]

 

He had a crappy 10 start rookie season and followed that with a 2 and 3 WAR season.  Last year sucked. If you think pitch framing is real, than Castro should help.  But Gibson is one of the pitching options the Twins need to know about.  

His 4 year average is about 1 WAR a year.  That is back of rotation material and do not think Gibson will be helped by his infield defense this year.  Get something for him while you can.

[Mike Sixel]

And, a start here and there, then back to AAA, then a start here and there, then back to AAA....that's not learning much about the pitchers probably.

 

They brought up Viola and let him pitch here, and grow here (well, not here in OR, you get my point).....

[S.]

If Hughes is in the rotation to start the season and his fastball velocity isn't AVERAGING 92-93, Molitor should be fired on the spot. Giving Hughes a guaranteed rotation spot is some grade A bull****. 

[beckmt]

I want a starting rotation that averages more than 7.0 K's per 9.  Gibson does not fit that definition, so I see no reason to continue the experiment and shop him.  He is a back of a rotation starter on an under .500 club.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Well according to Parker's most recent ST update, Hughsie will be making his next start in an intra-squad scrimmage rather than an actual game.

 

I will try not to read too much into it but if Hughes is one of Molitor's locks, I would think Hughes would be on the same schedule as everyone else. I still have a hard time believing he will be at 100% by the start of the season. 

[Danchat]

I'm not too concerned about this. Yeah, I don't like it, but within 3 weeks of Opening Day Hughes will likely be on the DL or have an ERA north of 6.00, hopefully prompting management to send him to the bullpen.

 

I definitely want May to win that 5th spot. He has a higher ceiling than basically everyone else in the rotation. He needs to get back to the grind of being a starter in the majors, and I don't want to see him doing that in May or June. Or see him in the bullpen again.

[S.]

 

I'm not too concerned about this. Yeah, I don't like it, but within 3 weeks of Opening Day Hughes will likely be on the DL or have an ERA north of 6.00, hopefully prompting management to send him to the bullpen.

The problem with this is how many times have we had these, "well, if he's not doing well, they aren't going to keep playing him, right? RIGHT?" moments. But then they do keep playing them.

 

IE: Danny Santana, Robbie Grossman, 90% of our pitchers over the last 5 years, etc.

[Thrylos]

The writing is on the wall:   Only 5 pitchers have been starting for the Twins this Spring and that is the rotation, pending something unforeseen, like Hughes not being ready or Santiago falling apart. 

 

Based on what Molitor has said, likely 6th in the depth chart is Mejia and Duffey might fight for a spot in the pen (Molitor liked his 96 mph fastball as a reliever.)  Will be interesting to see who will be starting in Santiago's spot now that he is away. 

 

Just a few data points from the way the Twins are doing things this Spring and what they are saying.

[diehardtwinsfan]

this is my biggest gripe with keeping Santiago. I would have given Gibson, May, and Ervin a spot.  Hughes would get one if he's throwing 90+ in late March, and then one for Mejia/Berrios/etc.  I get the need for depth though.  Perhaps Santiago catches lightening in a bottle and can get something other than org filler in a trade.

[Thrylos]

 

this is my biggest gripe with keeping Santiago. I would have given Gibson, May, and Ervin a spot.  Hughes would get one if he's throwing 90+ in late March, and then one for Mejia/Berrios/etc.  I get the need for depth though.  Perhaps Santiago catches lightening in a bottle and can get something other than org filler in a trade.

 

His contract is not guaranteed until camp breaks, so the Twins have options as far as Santiago goes.  He is their only lefty in the rotation.  Mejia might change the landscape a bit here...

[Vanimal46]

The problem with this is how many times have we had these, "well, if he's not doing well, they aren't going to keep playing him, right? RIGHT?" moments. But then they do keep playing them.

 

IE: Danny Santana, Robbie Grossman, 90% of our pitchers over the last 5 years, etc.

There needs to be a term for these moments.

 

We as fans are getting "Pelfed"?

[Kwak]

I wax wistfully about the Spring when we "penciled in" Scott Diamond as the #1--"Ace".  Granted there were oodles of others competing for rotation spots (where are they now?) but, Diamond was our "rock".  I fear that many are viewing "the oodles of others" 2017 version as "the future" but have omitted what happened to yesteryear's version.  Sometimes the grass looks greener in the other pasture because the manure is freshly applied.

 

Did Hughes "earn" his spot in the rotation?  Well, 3 guaranteed years at $14MM each is almost as solid as Mauer's spot in the lineup.

[Deduno Abides]

I wax wistfully about the Spring when we "penciled in" Scott Diamond as the #1--"Ace".  Granted there were oodles of others competing for rotation spots (where are they now?) but, Diamond was our "rock".  I fear that many are viewing "the oodles of others" 2017 version as "the future" but have omitted what happened to yesteryear's version.  Sometimes the grass looks greener in the other pasture because the manure is freshly applied.

 

Did Hughes "earn" his spot in the rotation?  Well, 3 guaranteed years at $14MM each is almost as solid as Mauer's spot in the lineup.

This is the fallacy of sunk costs. How many wins someone can get should be the criteria for playing time, not how much someone is paid.

[jud6312]

 

His 4 year average is about 1 WAR a year.  That is back of rotation material and do not think Gibson will be helped by his infield defense this year.  Get something for him while you can.

How about not including the 10-outing cup of coffee rookie season when making an evaluation - since it's a ridiculously SSS.

 

If you do that, his average WAR is just shy of 2. I'll take that for a 3-5 spot in the rotation, which is where most everyone I've seen defending him on here expects him to be. I don't think anyone is suggesting any longer that he's going to be a #1 or #2 - so everyone agrees with you that he's back of the rotation type of guy.

[beckmt]

 

How about not including the 10-outing cup of coffee rookie season when making an evaluation - since it's a ridiculously SSS.

 

If you do that, his average WAR is just shy of 2. I'll take that for a 3-5 spot in the rotation, which is where most everyone I've seen defending him on here expects him to be. I don't think anyone is suggesting any longer that he's going to be a #1 or #2 - so everyone agrees with you that he's back of the rotation type of guy.

That works when you have an ace at the front of the rotation, or two very good starters in the 1 and 2 postitions.  Pitching wins ballgames and the Twins do not have a front of the rotation piece at this time.  Therefore we cannot afford a back of the rotation pitcher in the back of the rotation.  We need a player or players who need evaluation over the next two years, to see if they are the future or we need to find other pitchers to fill these spots, you cannot wait until next year for this or you will see more of the SSS comments.