Article: Central Intelligence: Detroit Tigers

[Nick Nelson]

The Detroit Tigers have seen the bottom. In 2003 they set the benchmark for modern era ineptitude with 119 losses, and the franchise seems intent on never going back to that place. Maybe that's why they have eschewed any kind of significant rebuild efforts despite an aging roster and a thin farm system.

 

The window is still open, but it's closing fast, and the lack of a proactive strategy could soon loom large.2016 At A Glance

 

Record: 86-75

Runs Scored: 750

Runs Allowed: 721

Pythag W/L: 83-78

Pitching WAR Leader: Justin Verlander

Hitting WAR Leader: Ian Kinsler

 

Season Recap

 

Miguel Cabrera went back into Miguel Cabrera mode. Ian Kinsler delivered one of the best seasons of his career at age 34. Victor Martinez rebounded, Justin Upton arrived with a 31-homer campaign, and Nick Castellanos seemingly turned a corner at third. On the pitching end, Justin Verlander came through with vintage, ace-caliber performance while Michael Fulmer emerged as a stud.

 

It was enough to fuel a major turnaround, which saw Detroit rise from fifth to second in the standings, but not enough to get them to the playoffs. Ultimately, they lacked the pitching depth to keep pace with Cleveland, despite a rotation that boasted the Rookie of the Year along with the Cy Young runner-up, and that's... well, scary.

 

Scarier for Detroit's fan base is that the Tigers front office did little to alter or supplement the roster during the offseason. GM Al Avila showed little outward interest in trading the 34-year-old Kinsler with his value at a high point, a strong signal that title contention remains the plan. Given the Hall of Fame bound cornerstones leading the way, we certainly can't count Detroit out, but will the beast known as Cabrerlander get the help it needs?

 

Why They'll Be Better

 

Year One of the Jordan Zimmermann experiment was a bust, and a costly one for the Tigers. After a brilliant month of April, the $110 million free agent signing went in the tank, posting a 6.84 ERA the rest of the way while losing long stretches to neck and lat injuries. It's interesting to think about how differently things might have played out in the Central if Zimmermann had been able to stay strong, healthy and effective throughout the summer.

 

That's surely what the club is envisioning in this new season. If Verlander and Fullmer can approximate their 2016 performances, while Zim rediscovers the form he consistently showed in Washington, the Tigers have a starter trio that can rival the Indians. This is their best path to overtaking the reigning division champs.

 

The back of the rotation figures to improve also with young talents like Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd assuming bigger roles. The Tigers will score enough, so if the defense and pitching staff can cut down the Runs Allowed total by 50 or so, 90-plus wins is very realistic.

 

Why They'll Be Worse

 

As mentioned earlier, the Tigers came up short last year despite Cabrera, Verlander and several others giving pretty much all you can hope for. It's been a while since the entire core has stayed healthy and productive at the same time, and it's a little tough to count on that keeping up as they age into their mid-30s.

 

Between Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey, Detroit has $25 million tied up in burnt out veterans who were sizable parts of the problem in 2016. Neither is a lock for the rotation, but the contractual commitments will probably compel manager Brad Ausmus to feed them more innings and opportunities.

 

Detroit's offense should still be solid at the very least, but there isn't much setup for improvement. They didn't sign anyone to fill their biggest hole at catcher – James McCann will get another shot after posting a .629 OPS – and they opened a new one by trading center fielder Cameron Maybin for a middling pitching prospect.

 

The Tigers are set to outspend every MLB team other than the Dodgers and Yankees. Over the past three years, these hefty payrolls have produced not one postseason win. Something's gotta give, which is that I expect Detroit will be a major player at the trade deadline – one way or the other.

 

Three Key Storylines

 

1. Can fireballing reliever Bruce Rondon build on his impressive 2016 showing and become a late-inning force?

 

2. Will Jordan Zimmermann rebound from an ugly first year in Motown and start making good on the team's enormous investment?

 

3. Who will play between Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez in the outfield? Can some combination of Tyler Collins, Mikie Mahtook and JaCoby Jones equate to a palatable solution in center?

 

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[BoofBonser]

me no gustan las Tigres. 

[HitInAPinch]

Excuse me if I giggle just a little bit:  A high spending team not winning it all somehow warms the cockles of my cold, dead heart.

[Vanimal46]

Not ready to write them off yet. There's been some that have tried writing them off for 5+ years, and they still find a way to be competitive. They'll finish 2nd in the division. 

[Tom Froemming]

Really weird that they didn't make their annual big splash, but also didn't try to rebuild. How did they not get a better option for CF?

[KirbyDome89]

 

Not ready to write them off yet. There's been some that have tried writing them off for 5+ years, and they still find a way to be competitive. They'll finish 2nd in the division. 

Careful....I hear warning points are assessed for this discussion....

[theBOMisthebomb]

Man, I am so glad the Tigers have Pelfrey and the Twins don't.

[big dog]

It will be very interesting to see if the family continues to pony up a huge payroll for an old team now that the patriarch has passed away.  I predicted last year that this team would have a bunch of age-related injuries and finally collapse.  Only partly true then, but I'll ride that prediction again this year.

 

Yeah, plus they have Big Pelf wanting to take the ball every fifth day, along with the Ghost of Anabel Sanchez.  JD Martinez in centerfield, anyone?  I'll take the under on Kinsler- the way under. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not ready to write them off yet. There's been some that have tried writing them off for 5+ years, and they still find a way to be competitive. They'll finish 2nd in the division. 

 

Worth noting that Dombrowski is gone.  I too have been cautious about writing off the Tigers in recent years, but it could be their new brain trust can't keep up like Dombrowski did.  (And of course, the money thing with Illitch's death could be big.)

 

They got through 2016, but how they adapt in 2017 will be pretty telling.

[by jiminy]

Funny, I feel completely differently about the Tigers than I do about the Yankees and Dodgers. Those guys I despise. The Yankees I perceive as arrogant and rolling in money, the Dodgers as having way too much TV money, and what tradition they have is stolen from Brooklyn. 

 

But the Tigers?  How can you not like the Tigers?  They're a middling midwestern city like us, but fallen on far harder times. And the owner puts his heart and soul and checkbook into the team. That's what you're supposed to do, right?  Isn't that what we wished the Pohlads would do, care, and put their money where their mouth is, instead of a business plan based on increasing the value of the team through threats to leave and public subsidies, and shooting for respectable not victory? I think Illich is awesome. I wish he owned the Twins!

 

I know there are two schools of thought--your local division mates are either your most hated rivals, or they are your pennant bearers against other divisions.  As for me, if the Twins don't make the playoffs, I become a Central Division fan.  I feel like they represent us, and defend our pride and honor against the coastal behemoths.  I'd prefer to see any Midwestern city beat any richer team.  The fact that the Tigers spend more than the Twins do doesn't make them rich, it makes them awesome. I begrudge them nothing. That city has been through a lot. And the fact that their owner wants to spend his own money to bring a championship to his hometown is fantastic. Good for him. 

 

Yes, they did have many down years, but that just makes them more sympathetic to me. And they did hold out for a new stadium, but Illich paid for 60% of it, and then launched the payroll into the stratosphere after it was built. Unlike the Pohlads, who now collect rental money for concerts and millions in naming rights for a stadium they didn't build.

 

I have nothing against Detroit or Cleveland, and if the Twins don't win the division, I'll be happy for whoever does. My best case scenario is for the AL Central to be the best in baseball, and for the Twins to win every year in a close race.

[Willihammer]

Pretty lousy bullpen still, and I doubt Ausmus is the guy to get it to play up. I predict a disappointing 2017 in typical lead-blowing Tigers fashion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't know if the Tigers pen is all that bad.  If Mark Lowe's leash is shorter, plus more innings from Bruce Rondon and a debut by Joe Jimenez, they could be solid.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not ready to write them off yet. There's been some that have tried writing them off for 5+ years, and they still find a way to be competitive. They'll finish 2nd in the division. 

 

5?  It's been more like 10.  I want to see what the new braintrust does as spy said, but these guys have been really resourceful staying relevant and competitive.