Article: Phil Hughes Shows Improvement In Second Spring Start

[Linus]

I'd really have to agree with Doc. I'd love nothing more than for PH to succeed and come back healthy, and I think most of us would agree that you don't have to throw gas to be successful (Jamie Moyer anyone? I think he topped at 87-88 in his prime).

 

Sure having the ability to rear back and immolate the hitters bat with righteous fury and vengeance is a nice option when you need it, but IF, he can locate his pitches, change speeds/arm angles and keep hitters off balance then he will have success.

 

If I remember correctly, didn't Radke top out at around 91-92? I remember him being pretty good.

 

So before the grognards and long-beards harrumph my widely optimistic hubris of Spring Training, there is a lot of baseball to be played this spring and I could still be proven to be widely wrong (which is known to happen quite often)... I for one will continue to hope and wish Phil Godspeed and good luck.

I think all of hope you are right especially because he seems like a good dude. However he lacks the variety you described in order to be successful with less velocity. Edited March 3, 2017 by Linus

[Vanimal46]

 

Wouldn't the counternarrative be, that pitchers are ahead of batters in ST?

 

That's what I always thought. And because of that saying, a pitcher's velocity would be close to what it will be during the season. 

[jimbo92107]

Assuming Hughes stays healthy, this is shaping up exactly the way most of us figured. We all know his velocity is well below what he used to have as a power pitcher. Command is not really an issue, but he now lacks an 'out pitch' in favorable counts. What should he do? 

 

What other aging veteran power pitchers do is find a new pitch, like a really slow curve he can dangle over the inside or outside corner, difficult to square up because it's coming at 65 mph and bending two feet. Of course that can backfire, too. Balls like that sometimes fly the other way about 450 feet. 

 

I think Hughes needs to average 92 mph on his heater to survive as a starter. If he doesn't reach that velocity, he'd better start developing that bolo curve. 

[USAFChief]

I'd really have to agree with Doc. I'd love nothing more than for PH to succeed and come back healthy, and I think most of us would agree that you don't have to throw gas to be successful (Jamie Moyer anyone? I think he topped at 87-88 in his prime).

 

Sure having the ability to rear back and immolate the hitters bat with righteous fury and vengeance is a nice option when you need it, but IF, he can locate his pitches, change speeds/arm angles and keep hitters off balance then he will have success.

 

If I remember correctly, didn't Radke top out at around 91-92? I remember him being pretty good.

 

So before the grognards and long-beards harrumph my widely optimistic hubris of Spring Training, there is a lot of baseball to be played this spring and I could still be proven to be widely wrong (which is known to happen quite often)... I for one will continue to hope and wish Phil Godspeed and good luck.

I prefer to be called a curmudgeon, thank you very much.

[Mr. Brooks]

Cliches are cliches for a reason... The games count just as much in April as they do in September. So why give Hughes a spot in the rotation and see what happens when he is showing red flags right now?

Correct. The Twins April 2017 games will be just as meaningless as their September 2017 games.

[Taildragger8791]

 

That's what I always thought. And because of that saying, a pitcher's velocity would be close to what it will be during the season. 

 

Not necessarily. Pitchers can be behind their regular season form while hitters can be even further behind, thus still putting pitchers ahead of hitters.

 

That makes sense when you think about what all goes into hitting vs. pitching. Hitters have to knock of rust on their swing mechanics and timing, pitch recognition, picking up spin and movement, reaction time, etc. Pitchers are mostly building up arm strength and regaining feel for their motion and pitches. Hitters have to react and be near perfect to have success, meaning often times the pitcher just needs to get the ball to the plate to have a good chance.

[Taildragger8791]

 

I'd really have to agree with Doc.   I'd love nothing more than for PH to succeed and come back healthy, and I think most of us would agree that you don't have to throw gas to be successful (Jamie Moyer anyone?  I think he topped at 87-88 in his prime). 

 

Sure having the ability to rear back and immolate the hitters bat with righteous fury and vengeance is a nice option when you need it, but IF, he can locate his pitches, change speeds/arm angles and keep hitters off balance then he will have success.

 

If I remember correctly, didn't Radke top out at around 91-92?    I remember him being pretty good.

 

So before the grognards and long-beards harrumph my widely optimistic hubris of Spring Training, there is a lot of baseball to be played this spring and I could still be proven to be widely wrong (which is known to happen quite often)... I for one will continue to hope and wish Phil Godspeed and good luck.

 

I don't know why these names come up every time a pitcher lacks velocity. There's a reason Moyer and Radke were so exceptional. That's because it's really rare and difficult to be consistently successful without a good fastball. Hughes doesn't have a bag of tricks to throw at hitters, he has a fastball/cut fastball/curve and sometimes a change. The change is mid-80s, almost as fast as his new fastball, which doesn't work and is probably why he's all but scrapped it. And his delivery doesn't have much deception to it. So...long story short he needs a real fastball.

[Brandon]

Lets see here this is Hughes second time pitching since surgery and his secondary pitches are working. He just needs to build up a little arm strength. And his location was good. Sounds like he is almost back. The question now us will he add 2 or 3 mph to his fastball by the end of spring. I like his chances alot. Put me down for over on his expected contributions this year.

[S.]

 

I think Hughes needs to average 92 mph on his heater to survive as a starter. If he doesn't reach that velocity, he'd better start developing that retirement plan.

Fixed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In the interest of speculating wildly about the future, what are people's thoughts about Hughes's velocity over the short and medium term? My thoughts:
- Right now, zero concern that he is just in the upper 80s. It is early, and he is working back from injury.
- In four weeks, I'll be pretty concerned if he is still just working 89-90-91. I think there is a decent case to be made at that point to just move him to the bullpen. However...
- This is probably a lost season for the team, so I don't think it is critical to move him to the bullpen right away. I would leave him as a starter for the first few months and see if 1) he regains the lost velocity over time, or 2) he can figure out a way to be effective with lower velocity. Neither of those options are particularly likely, but it's not like there is a lot to lose right now with being patient.

 

To sum up, there are a lot of unknowns about his particular injury, and not a huge sample-size to make guesses about his likely recovery path. I think the Twins should error on the side of being too patient with him, even if he is getting knocked around in March/April/May. I'm curious what others think.

I'd put Hughes in the bullpen immediately if he's sitting at 90 in late March. Let him work out his issues in the pen and if he kills it, then consider giving him another shot at the rotation.

 

Because if Hughes isn't in the rotation, that means Berrios starts the season in Minnesota. Which would you rather see: Berrios getting a full season of work against MLB hitters or Hughes figuring it out and working on velocity against MLB hitters?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If I remember correctly, didn't Radke top out at around 91-92?    I remember him being pretty good.

And if Hughes suddenly developed a knee-buckling changeup out of nowhere, he could be pretty good, too.

 

Hughes and Radke are very different pitchers. Hughes needs the velocity Radke didn't (never mind that pitchers, in general, have started throwing harder since Radke started his career 20 years ago).

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd put Hughes in the bullpen immediately if he's sitting at 90 in late March. Let him work out his issues in the pen and if he kills it, then consider giving him another shot at the rotation.

 

Because if Hughes isn't in the rotation, that means Berrios starts the season in Minnesota. Which would you rather see: Berrios getting a full season of work against MLB hitters or Hughes figuring it out and working on velocity against MLB hitters?

 

Wait, I think I know the right answer to this one....

[MN_ExPat]

"I'd put Hughes in the bullpen immediately if he's sitting at 90 in late March. Let him work out his issues in the pen and if he kills it, then consider giving him another shot at the rotation"

 

Excellent point Brock.  I really hope that Hughes can come back from this.  I can't help but wonder if some of my (misplaced?) enthusiasm for a come back to his initial season with the twins stems from the heartache most of us felt when Kirby Pucket's career was cut short.  I remember being crushed, but still holding out hope that he would overcome what even I knew at the time was a career ending condition.

[nicksaviking]

Phil is making 13M per year. While that's too much for a back of the rotation arm, it's actually not really out of line with back of the bullpen arms these days.

 

If Phil could show some effectiveness in the pen he still might have some value. Hughes also still has some name brand appeal likely. Mark Melancon is making way more than Hughes for example. Melancon also has low velocity and largely uses a cutter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Melancon has been rock solid in that role for 5 years, though.

 

I think Hughes is going to need the better part of 2 years to regain any real value around the league -- he's just way too fragile and inconsistent at this point.

[Thrylos]

Hughes was on the record saying that he was not throwing at 100% and will not be throwing at 100% for 2 more outings.  I'd wait until his third outing to start getting worried about his velocity, but if he is indeed throwing 87 and 88 at 80%-90% efford, color me happy

 

Re: success with lower fastball velocities:  In his 20-4 2.26 ERA, 2002 season with the RedSox,  Pedro Martinez's fastball averaged 90.5 mph.  In his 16-6, 2.62 ERA, 2002 season with the Braves, Greg Maduxx's fastball averaged 85.8 mph.  

 

Not everyone is Pedro and Maddux.  For example, even Johan Santana had a hard time being as good as he was when his velocity dropped the last couple years of his career.  Different pitchers pitch different ways, and even the greatest sometimes have a hard time reinventing themselves when they lose velocity.  FWIW: Other than 2004 Radke was not that effective when his FB average dropped under 90 mph.  He was an innings eater with 4.30ish ERA and 4.50ish FIP

 

 

Edited March 6, 2017 by Thrylos

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Hughes was on the record saying that he was not throwing at 100% and will not be throwing at 100% for 2 more outings.  I'd wait until his third outing to start getting worried about his velocity, but if he is indeed throwing 87 and 88 at 80%-90% efford, color me happy

 

Re: success with lower fastball velocities:  In his 20-4 2.26 ERA, 2002 season with the RedSox,  Pedro Martinez's fastball averaged 90.5 mph.  In his 16-6, 2.62 ERA, 2002 season with the Braves, Greg Maduxx's fastball averaged 85.8 mph.  

 

Not everyone is Pedro and Maddux.  For example, even Johan Santana had a hard time being as good as he was when his velocity dropped the last couple years of his career.  Different pitchers pitch different ways, and even the greatest sometimes have a hard time reinventing themselves when they lose velocity.  FWIW: Other than 2004 Radke was not that effective when his FB average dropped under 90 mph.  He was an innings eater with 4.30ish ERA and 4.50ish FIP

 

Yeah, but what happens when you exclude the first inning home run he always gave up   

 

Edited March 6, 2017 by LimestoneBaggy

[Taildragger8791]

 

Phil is making 13M per year. While that's too much for a back of the rotation arm, it's actually not really out of line with back of the bullpen arms these days.

 

If Phil could show some effectiveness in the pen he still might have some value. Hughes also still has some name brand appeal likely. Mark Melancon is making way more than Hughes for example. Melancon also has low velocity and largely uses a cutter.

 

Hughes' salary shouldn't matter to anything at this point. That's a sunk cost. Put him in the position where he brings the most value to the team from a performance standpoint. Don't care if that's in the rotation, bullpen, or off the roster, but I hope that is the only aspect the team is considering.

[Mike Sixel]

2002 is a LONG time ago......the world has changed.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hughes was on the record saying that he was not throwing at 100% and will not be throwing at 100% for 2 more outings.  I'd wait until his third outing to start getting worried about his velocity, but if he is indeed throwing 87 and 88 at 80%-90% efford, color me happy

 

As long as Hughes can get outs, he can give 43% for all I care. But I have my doubts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

FWIW: Other than 2004 Radke was not that effective when his FB average dropped under 90 mph.  He was an innings eater with 4.30ish ERA and 4.50ish FIP

During the steroid era, that was a pretty good pitcher. Radke finished his career with a 113 ERA+. He didn't only eat innings, he performed well while doing it.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I realize that Hughes might actually be holding back some due to coming back, but maybe not much either. People always love to defend lower velocities in ST or use select cases where guys built velocities during the season. However, I was reading on a Fangraphs article recently that ST velocities generally do not improve much at all during the season as a whole (think .5mph was the high end average.) It happens, but often the number get worse too. 

 

Guys are always using the 'still building up' when their numbers are not great, but in 'most' cases it simply is what it is. There is always the exception, but there are also just as many, if not more, for losing velocity in season. It is wise to assume velocity won't improve, regardless of situation. When it does happen, just be happy.

[laloesch]

He needs to embrace his off speed breaking ball stuff (changeup, slider, curve) and increase there usage while dramatically cutting back on the number of 4 seam fastballs thrown.  Part of the reason he's been pounded the last couple of years is the ridiculous number of fastballs that he throws.  If your a hitter just hack away and eventually you'll get something you like.

Edited March 8, 2017 by laloesch

[nicksaviking]

 

He needs to embrace his off speed breaking ball stuff (changeup, slider, curve) and increase there usage while dramatically cutting back on the number of 4 seam fastballs thrown.  

 

I think the problem is that the batters embrace his changeup and curve as well. They're just not very good pitches. He'd just be throwing more of a bad pitch.

 

There have been plenty of relievers who have succeeded on a cutter heavy approach though.

[Willihammer]

According to fangraphs, Hughes knuckle curve averages 76.6 mph.

If the curve is at 74 then that would be consistent with reports that his fastball is 2-3 mph behind also. Which is more evidence that he isn't where he needs to be.

 

It doesn't take very long to see that Hughes bread and butter is the 4 seemer. It gets a good number of whiffs and popups, and lazy fly balls. But mostly it gets fouls. If he loses even a tick or two, it stands to reason he will lose a bit of rise too, and all the swings will be a little more squared up. With more fly balls going for HRs, more popups turning into FB's, and more fouls turning into BIPs.

[Linus]

Hughes has never shown that he has good feel for off speed stuff. Comparing him to pitchers who do (like Radke) is misleading. I suppose he could learn a lights out change up at this point in his career but it seems unlikely.

[laloesch]

 

Hughes has never shown that he has good feel for off speed stuff. Comparing him to pitchers who do (like Radke) is misleading. I suppose he could learn a lights out change up at this point in his career but it seems unlikely.

 

Really? Are we watching the same guy?

 

He can throw sliders, curves and changeups.  In 2010 (arguably his best season), almost 17% of his pitches were curveballs and 5% were changeups.  In 2012 (another good year for him), 19% curve balls, 10% changeups. When he first joined the Twins he started throwing a knuckle curve and that has steadily increased to almost 23% of his offerings, but so has his usage of that cutter which looks like mostly fastball and not slider.  

 

I think Hughes needs to cut back on the cutter and start throwing sliders again and increase the number of changeups thrown.  If he can't consistently sit in the low 90's he's going to have to reinvent himself.  He's not going to get away with 66-67% of his pitches being 4-seamers and cutters.  But hey what the heck do i know.  Just my thoughts. 

[Linus]

Really? Are we watching the same guy?

 

He can throw sliders, curves and changeups. In 2010 (arguably his best season), almost 17% of his pitches were curveballs and 5% were changeups. In 2012 (another good year for him), 19% curve balls, 10% changeups. When he first joined the Twins he started throwing a knuckle curve and that has steadily increased to almost 23% of his offerings, but so has his usage of that cutter which looks like mostly fastball and not slider.

 

I think Hughes needs to cut back on the cutter and start throwing sliders again and increase the number of changeups thrown. If he can't consistently sit in the low 90's he's going to have to reinvent himself. He's not going to get away with 66-67% of his pitches being 4-seamers and cutters. But hey what the heck do i know. Just my thoughts.

Last year he threw fastballs and cutters.....and everything is hard.

[Willihammer]

Hughes definitely throws a curve too.

He hasn't thrown a slider since 2013. He swapped it for the cutter.

[Doomtints]

 

Hughes' salary shouldn't matter to anything at this point. That's a sunk cost. Put him in the position where he brings the most value to the team from a performance standpoint. Don't care if that's in the rotation, bullpen, or off the roster, but I hope that is the only aspect the team is considering.

 

This is how the Twins should be thinking.