Article: Phil Hughes Shows Improvement In Second Spring Start

[Parker Hageman]

In a way, Thursday’s outing in Sarasota was a microcosm of Phil Hughes’ previous two seasons.

 

His velocity was down, he threw a ton of strikes, and he struggled to put hitters away. Nevertheless, Hughes left the game after 45 pitches -- 30 of which were strikes -- and felt that he had made significant progress towards returning to his pre-injury form.

 

“Compared to last time, it was miles better,” said Hughes.Last time, of course, was his two inning, four hit, two run outing at JetBlue Park. It was his first game action since his thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and the Red Sox monsters made loud and consistent contact. His pitches lacked velocity and precision. This time his pitches simply lacked velocity.

 

Ed Smith Stadium’s radar gun showed that Hughes was sitting around 88-89 with his fastball/cutter combination. He touched 90 a couple of times. But Hughes wasn’t overly concerned over those figures.

 

“I don’t necessarily want to say ‘OK I have to throw this pitch as hard as I can right now because I have to prove that I am healthy and back’,” Hughes said.

 

In evaluating the difference between the two outings, Hughes said as opposed to his start against Boston, he felt like he was in the driver’s seat, working ahead in the count which allowed him to open up the tool shed and deploy some of his secondary pitches. Facing a formidable Orioles lineup which included Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis, Hughes was able to use his cutter, curveball and changeup.

 

“Starting off with some strike ones, throwing some decent cutters, moving the ball around the zone, elevating. I actually had a chance to work on some things instead of trying to get back into some counts like I did last time.”

 

He did start hitters off with strikes. Phil Hughes threw a ton of strikes as Phil Hughes is wont to do. Phil Hughes throws a ton of strikes. That has never been an issue. He was ahead in the count on a regular basis, giving him the chance to use some of his secondary pitches. And, like he said, Hughes did throw some decent cutters. His best was perhaps the first one he threw when he froze Baltimore’s Hyun Soo Kim on a classic backdrop cutter.

 

“I think I had a seven or eight pitch sequence to [Kim]. I figured I’d take a chance on 3-2 so it was nice to execute that pitch,” said Hughes. “It was a pitch that really eluded me my last outing, it felt kinda all over the place. I guess that is sorta to be expected for my first one and today I felt a lot more comfortable and located the ball better.”

 

On the flip side, Hughes had five hitters in 0-2 counts. He allowed three of those hitters to reach base. In the first inning, Manny Machado pulled what Hughes called a “decent curveball” on 0-2 down the third base line for a double. One batter later Hughes found himself 0-2 against Mark Trumbo, only to fall behind in the count and eventually walk him. He did the same thing to Kim in the third inning, who wound up being his last batter of the afternoon.

 

One of the issues Hughes has struggled with over the last two seasons is finishing hitters in strikeout situations. According to ESPN/TruMedia, Hughes has a .243 average against in two-strike counts, the third-highest among qualified pitchers. In 0-2 counts specifically, Hughes has a .250 average against compared to the .155 league average.

 

“A big thing with us is to try to limit the 0-2 hits,” Hughes said. “There’s a fine line because you still want to make a competitive pitch on 0-2, not just waste one, but at the same time make sure it is a quality pitch.”

 

Hughes did make the effort to put hitters away. Against Trumbo, he threw two fastballs at Trumbo’s eye level, only to have him foul the two back. Back in 2014, Hughes had success throwing his fastball in the upper third or higher, resulting in 42 strikeouts. That, however, was when he was sitting 92. The current 88-90 version of his fastball is not likely to achieve the same outcome.

 

Manager Paul Molitor said that Hughes executed the game plan despite not getting the desired results in those two-strike situations. With Trumbo, the Twins wanted to work up above the zone, which Hughes did several times. Molitor credits Trumbo for battling what he considered tough pitches. Hughes’ style, Molitor said, was going to occasionally allow counts to swing from 0-2 to 2-2 in a hurry as he tries to set up an out pitch.

 

“I think Phil understands that he’s such a command guy that he has to push people off the plate, especially when he is ahead in the count and elevate a little bit,” Molitor said.

 

In terms of how he feels compared to previous seasons, Hughes wouldn’t take the bait.

 

“I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself and compare it,” he said after his second start of the spring. “I’m just trying to go through every day and do what I have to do and I feel like at the end of spring I’ll really have a more clear idea of where I’m at.”

 

There are several more weeks of spring training remaining for Hughes to ramp up, add velocity, and improve his command. At the very least, Hughes is happy with his progress so far.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

I won't worry about the radar (as a predictor of success) for a couple weeks.....but he'll probably have to throw harder to be successful.

[Dantes929]

His point about pitching with an 0-2 count is a good one.   While it is annoying to give up hits on 0-2 counts you still need to throw quality pitches near the strike zone or the pitches truly are wasted.    When May and Berrios came up they would get guys 0-2 and then throw 2 or 3 pitches that were not even close before walking the guy.   IMO that is far worse than throwing a good 0-2 pitch on the corner that the batter hits.

[Vanimal46]

"Ed Smith Stadium’s radar gun showed that Hughes was sitting around 88-89 with his fastball/cutter combination. He touched 90 a couple of times. But Hughes wasn’t overly concerned over those figures."

He should be. That's not going to work going forward. 

[Mr. Brooks]

His point about pitching with an 0-2 count is a good one. While it is annoying to give up hits on 0-2 counts you still need to throw quality pitches near the strike zone or the pitches truly are wasted. When May and Berrios came up they would get guys 0-2 and then throw 2 or 3 pitches that were not even close before walking the guy. IMO that is far worse than throwing a good 0-2 pitch on the corner that the batter hits.

Isn't there a middle ground between wasting one pitch on 0-2, and wasting 3 to get to a full count.

Nothing annoys me more than a pitcher throwing it over the plate on 0-2. The whole advantage of getting up 0-2 is that you don't have to throw the hitter a strike.

[mikelink45]

 

Isn't there a middle ground between wasting one pitch on 0-2, and wasting 3 to get to a full count.
Nothing annoys me more than a pitcher throwing it over the plate on 0-2. The whole advantage of getting up 0-2 is that you don't have to throw the hitter a strike.

It is the ability to be close, but also to be unpredictable.  When they assume a ball and you throw a tough strike - that is pitching.

[beckmt]

I would say it is time to worry if Hughes velocity does not improve in 2 weeks.  Before that I am inclined to believe Hughes has that time to ramp up.  If he cannot get regularly above 90, the time has come to cut bait.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I would say it is time to worry if Hughes velocity does not improve in 2 weeks.  Before that I am inclined to believe Hughes has that time to ramp up.  If he cannot get regularly above 90, the time has come to cut bait.

Agreed, I'm pretty impressed we're already talking about Hughes' second spring appearance and it's only March 2. Earlier this offseason, I would've bet against him being ready for Opening Day.

[D.C Twins]

Three hits, two walks and 45 pitches over 2 innings with a fastball in the 80s?!

 

Wow, I hope he doesn't get vertigo with all the postitive spin going on.....

[USAFChief]

A prime indication to me of a pitcher in long term trouble is one who consistently gives up solid contact on 0-2 and 1-2 pitches.

 

That's not only extremely annoying, it's a huge red flag, in that its a real indicator of a lack of big league stuff.

[laloesch]

Not very reassuring. What's plan B?

 

 

Santana

 

Gibson

 

Santiago

 

May

 

Meija / Berrios

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

May was hitting 96 in his start last weekend. Give me the young guys with lots of life still on their arms.

[Old Twins Cap]

Very high quality article.  Thank you. 

 

I'm glad that someone is actually writing about the new season and what is happening in Florida.

[Dantes929]

 

Isn't there a middle ground between wasting one pitch on 0-2, and wasting 3 to get to a full count.
Nothing annoys me more than a pitcher throwing it over the plate on 0-2. The whole advantage of getting up 0-2 is that you don't have to throw the hitter a strike.

Of course there is middle ground.    There is a wide range between a curbe ball 2 feet outside in the dirt and a fastball down the middle.    There is also a difference between intent and execution.   The slider intended to be down and away from the strike zone may spin and be left up and hittable.    To be fair the pitches May and Berrios were throwing were probably overthrown rather than no where near the plate by intent which I guess is lack of execution also.    I side on annoyance factor in   being ahead in the count and then throwing pitches that do not even tempt the batter thereby giving up the advantage.  I am ok with people being more annoyed the other way.

[Mr. Brooks]

Of course there is middle ground. There is a wide range between a curbe ball 2 feet outside in the dirt and a fastball down the middle. There is also a difference between intent and execution. The slider intended to be down and away from the strike zone may spin and be left up and hittable. To be fair the pitches May and Berrios were throwing were probably overthrown rather than no where near the plate by intent which I guess is lack of execution also. I side on annoyance factor in being ahead in the count and then throwing pitches that do not even tempt the batter thereby giving up the advantage. I am ok with people being more annoyed the other way.

Yeah I get that.

But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm annoyed when a pitcher intends to throw it over the strike zone on 0-2. I understand that sometimes you miss your spot.

[DocBauer]

Agreed, I'm pretty impressed we're already talking about Hughes' second spring appearance and it's only March 2. Earlier this offseason, I would've bet against him being ready for Opening Day.

 

Agreed. First pitch strikes, ahead in the count, Hughes himself feeling better about his feel and control is encouraging and beyond what I have been expecting. Many pitchers ramp up their velocity throughout the spring. If I recall correctly, this has been pretty standard for Hughes himself going all the way back to 2014 even. He's honestly further along than I ever expected based on this last outing. Doesn't mean he will make it all the way back and be the same pitcher he was in 2014, but I'm surprised and encouraged at this point.

[DocBauer]

Not very reassuring. What's plan B?

Santana

Gibson

Santiago

May

Meija / Berrios

 

I would say Berrios over Mejia at this point with Vogelsong and Haley as possibles. There are always injuries, trade possibilities and guys who flat out stink. (Though you always want to avoid 2 of those). The rotation that starts the season is not the rotation we'll see at the end of the year, and could be different by the break, or even a month in.

[gocgo]

Unless Hughes absolutely stinks in ST, he will be in the starting rotation.

[markos]

In the interest of speculating wildly about the future, what are people's thoughts about Hughes's velocity over the short and medium term? My thoughts:
- Right now, zero concern that he is just in the upper 80s. It is early, and he is working back from injury.
- In four weeks, I'll be pretty concerned if he is still just working 89-90-91. I think there is a decent case to be made at that point to just move him to the bullpen. However...
- This is probably a lost season for the team, so I don't think it is critical to move him to the bullpen right away. I would leave him as a starter for the first few months and see if 1) he regains the lost velocity over time, or 2) he can figure out a way to be effective with lower velocity. Neither of those options are particularly likely, but it's not like there is a lot to lose right now with being patient.

 

To sum up, there are a lot of unknowns about his particular injury, and not a huge sample-size to make guesses about his likely recovery path. I think the Twins should error on the side of being too patient with him, even if he is getting knocked around in March/April/May. I'm curious what others think.

[Vanimal46]

Cliches are cliches for a reason... The games count just as much in April as they do in September. So why give Hughes a spot in the rotation and see what happens when he is showing red flags right now? 

[DocBauer]

On the one hand, we caution not to get enamored with Park's production...or anyone else's...because it's so early in ST. On the other hand, despite not improved second performance, we are upset Hughes isn't throwing 92. We can't have it both ways. Many, many pitchers not only ramp up their innings during the spring, and get feel for their pitches, but vamp up their velocity. The fact that he is actually hitting 90 at this point coming off such an unknown injury repair has me far more optomistic than I was coming into ST. Now, if he's only hitting 90 in a couple of weeks I have to question rehab or a bullpen move.

[Broker]

These guys aren't in regular season form yet. Don't forget that spring training is simply a way to get back up speed. The time to worry is April not now.

[Mike Sixel]

Posting here instead of the usual thread:

 

Eric
9:21 Phil Hughes made his 2nd start and was consistently at 87-88 MPH on the radar gun. Do you think he can ramp up to 90? Are all pitchers in ST sitting at 2-4 MPH below their normal velocity?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:22 It's still very early in spring. Many pitchers are below their summer velocities. Arm strength, in general, isn't even fully built up by April or May. Be patient here

[iTwins]

I'm not presently worried about Hughes' velocity, but reserve the right to be worried at a future date. 

 

It is nice to see him back on the mound, regardless. Especially since that surgery wasn't a guarantee to come back from. 

[Willihammer]

Wouldn't the counternarrative be, that pitchers are ahead of batters in ST?

[Willihammer]

Kind of amazing Hughes got through a lineup with Jones, Trumbo, Machado, and Davis with 1 strikeout.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

We had the same velocity discussion about Perkins last March, FWIW

 

My gut guess was always that they are paying Hughes lip service, and that he would begin the season on the DL. Hughes already saw his fastball velocity drop noticeably between 2014-2015. He might need to reinvent himself as a crafty righty. The BA against on 0-2 counts is alarming, either way.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P&pitch=FA

[Parker Hageman]

 

Kind of amazing Hughes got through a lineup with Jones, Trumbo, Machado, and Davis with 1 strikeout.

 

I'd have to check again but by my count, Hughes didn't register a swing and miss in that outing. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd have to check again but by my count, Hughes didn't register a swing and miss in that outing. 

 

Is that even possible against those players? Wow.

[MN_ExPat]

I'd really have to agree with Doc.   I'd love nothing more than for PH to succeed and come back healthy, and I think most of us would agree that you don't have to throw gas to be successful (Jamie Moyer anyone?  I think he topped at 87-88 in his prime). 

 

Sure having the ability to rear back and immolate the hitters bat with righteous fury and vengeance is a nice option when you need it, but IF, he can locate his pitches, change speeds/arm angles and keep hitters off balance then he will have success.

 

If I remember correctly, didn't Radke top out at around 91-92?    I remember him being pretty good.

 

So before the grognards and long-beards harrumph my widely optimistic hubris of Spring Training, there is a lot of baseball to be played this spring and I could still be proven to be widely wrong (which is known to happen quite often)... I for one will continue to hope and wish Phil Godspeed and good luck.