Article: Camp Sleepers

[Nick Nelson]

Every year at least one player ends up making the Minnesota Twins 25-man roster out of spring training that few expected to do so at the outset of camp.

 

Let's examine a few of the top candidates among this year's non-roster invite group to latch on, and what kinds of roles they might play.There are a number of NRIs who stand a good chance of making the team and shouldn't really be viewed as "sleepers" per se. For instance, I would say Chris Gimenez is the favorite to win the backup catcher job, and Craig Breslow probably has better than a 50/50 shot at making the bullpen, provided his experimentations prove fruitful. ByungHo Park is hardly under the radar, especially after his hot start.

 

The four names below are relative long shots, but any could force his way into the picture by making the right impressions over the coming month.

 

Drew Stubbs, OF

 

The 32-year-old brings with him plenty of experience, which is something Paul Molitor and the front office have openly coveted. Stubbs has piled up more than 3,000 plate appearances in the majors, contributing to multiple playoff teams. Even though he batted .195 during brief stints with the Rangers, Thad Levine liked what he saw enough to go get him.

 

As a strikeout-prone power hitter, his offensive profile is a bit redundant. But if the Twins want to add some veteran balance on an offensive unit that projects six regulars 26 and under, carrying Stubbs over Danny Santana might be the best way to do it. Much will depend on how Stubbs looks in the field; a team carrying Robbie Grossman as fourth outfielder can't afford another defensive liability as the fifth.

 

J.B. Shuck, OF

 

Another vet angling to overtake a very vulnerable Santana. Shuck faces longer odds than Stubbs, to be sure, but could gain an edge if he's clearly better with the glove. A low-power contact hitter in the Piranha mold, he hasn't produced in the big leagues but had a .380 OBP in the minors.

 

Shuck has all the traits of a solid final bench guy, and would complement the slow-footed Grossman well in the outfield reserves.

 

Ben Paulsen, 1B

 

During his first two seasons in Colorado, Paulsen batted .284 with an .809 OPS. Good production, and the type that Minnesota would love to get at the DH spot. Unfortunately, it was a small sample (420 PA) buoyed by hitter-friendly Coors Field and tainted by poor plate discipline.

 

Last year, the bottom fell out and Paulsen spent much of the summer in Triple-A. This spring he would need to significantly outshine both Park and Kennys Vargas, as he undoubtedly enters camp trailing both. Swinging from the same side as starting first baseman Joe Mauer also works against him.

 

Still, Paulsen does have some things working for him: he's still fairly young (29) but has logged more MLB time – with better overall numbers – than either Vargas or Park. The message coming into this camp has been clear: nothing is being handed to anyone. Therein lies Paulsen's advantage.

 

Ryan Vogelsong, RHP

 

There are some people in the know who tell me Vogelsong is an odds on favorite to make the roster as long as he holds his own this spring. I'm not sure I really understand that, but his appeal is apparent enough. The righty has been around the block, with nearly 300 appearances in the majors since debuting all the way back in 2000.

 

Vogelsong experienced a late-career renaissance, making his first All-Star team at age 33 and then following with another quality season. But he hasn't been good in four years and is about to turn 40, with almost every measurable trending the wrong way.

 

It sounds like the Twins value the veteran for more than simply his production. Commending Vogelsong's leadership, assistant GM Rob Antony said shortly after the signing: "I think he communicates well with the younger pitchers and tries to help them. From all accounts, he’s got really, really good makeup.”

 

A later quote from Antony seems to tell the story: “He could give some of our younger guys more time to develop if they’re not ready.”

 

Click here to view the article

[Deduno Abides]

Advice for Derek Falvey: anyone that Rob Antony instinctively gravitates to, you should instinctively avoid.

[Deduno Abides]

Sorry for the piling on snark:

 

Assistant GM Rob Antony said shortly after signing Annie Savoy, "I think she communicates well with the younger pitchers and tries to help them. From all accounts, she's got really, really good makeup."

[HitInAPinch]

It's kind of a time honored tradition to bring in veterans like these 4 to fill out a roster.  Over the past few years, the Twins have been bringing them in as starters. 

 

I still have some questions about Kepler, Rosario, Polanco and any of the young SP's and RP's [and to a lesser extent Buxton and Sano], so signing young veterans, as backups now makes a lot more sense.  I'd prefer seeing job descriptions like "contact hitter/great OBP/OPS guy" or "late-career renaissance, with uncanny ability to get hitters out",  but this is still the Twins.  And their record of the the past few years doesn't exactly draw the best of the rest....

[Yossarian]

Stubbs and Shuck address that embarrassing blush from the fanbase when we must turn to Grossman as a late-inning defensive replacement.  Vsong sounds more like Neil Allen's replacement-in-waiting.  Paulsen will be left in the dust, or Rochester if he doesn't have an opt-out clause.

 

Let's get on with the rebuilding, which last time I checked wasn't built on also-rans and never-weres.

[DocBauer]

I would say Stubbs as the 4th OF, assuming he can find a bit of his old magic, and Adrianza would be my loop choices, along with Breslow.

 

Stubbs used to be good defensively, could hit and run a bit and flashed some power from the RH side. He could definitely be a fit. Adrianza obviously brings the leather, and actually didn't hit badly in the minors. Defensive replacement/utility? Breslow has experience, his new arm angle and spin rate to help the pen. I find these three at least...interesting.

 

I still have this gut feeling the Twins will be adding a cut OF late in the spring .

[USAFChief]

I guess it's possible Stubbs and Schuck are competing with Danny Santana, but I see them more as competition for Grossman.

 

In this age of 12 and 13 man staffs, it's very difficult to carry five true outfielders. Putting both Grossman and one of Schuck/Stubbs, plus a backup catcher, limits the rest of the bench pretty severely.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ryan Vogelsong, RHP

There are some people in the know who tell me Vogelsong is an odds on favorite to make the roster as long as he holds his own this spring. I'm not sure I really understand that

I don't endorse it, but Vogelsong making the team has been my prediction for awhile.  And I am worried about how that may affect May and Berrios -- are they going to get a real shot/leash in the early going?

[savvyspy]

Vogelsong didn't look like he could have gotten me out in his first action. He is a wasted roster spot and isn't worth keeping. He is just blocking a younger player that could be part of the future. Vogelsong certainly isn't.

[Otto von Ballpark]

On the Vogelsong topic, it does look like he made the Pirates as a reliever/spot starter out of spring training last year, so I guess there is hope he doesn't immediately claim a rotation spot.  When he got hit in the face on May 23rd, it was only his second start of the year.  He did come back to start exclusively down the stretch, though.

 

But even if he begins in the pen, I think the team will be tempted to switch him and May at the first sign of trouble, or move Vogelsong into the first in-season rotation vacancy rather than Berrios.

Edited March 1, 2017 by spycake

[Vanimal46]

 

But even if he begins in the pen, I think the team will be tempted to switch him and May at the first sign of trouble, or move Vogelsong into the first in-season rotation vacancy rather than Berrios.

 

That would be a nightmare scenario IMO. Treading water with another 40 year old veteran while young guys don't get a chance. 

[nicksaviking]

Barring an injury or surprise trade, it's pretty much a lock that 11 of the players on the 25-man will be 27 or older. I'm really flummoxed as to how it's possible that this is not enough veteran leadership. How many vets do they want, because it sounds like they want to find a way to have 13 or 14 minimum.

 

Is there a specific ratio of vets to pups I'm not aware of? That seems like a lot for a team that lost 100 games last year. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Barring an injury or surprise trade, it's pretty much a lock that 11 of the players on the 25-man will be 27 or older. I'm really flummoxed as to how it's possible that this is not enough veteran leadership. How many vets do they want, because it sounds like they want to find a way to have 13 or 14 minimum.

 

Is there a specific ratio vets to pups I'm not aware of? That seems like a lot for a team that lost 100 games last year. 

 

yup, and yet I'm told not to worry that not 1 young player has been added to the roster for 59 win team.....indeed, they seem hell bent on getting older, not younger.

[Thrylos]

I'd take Vogelsong over Santiago who I don't think is a lock for the rotation.   Only the last 2 season he has been a full time starter.

 

As far as OF goes, I think that the only lock is Buxton and maybe Kepler, so Grossman, Santana, Rosario, Stubbs, Shuck, & Palka are competing for 2-3 spots.  Not sure that Rosario has earned an MLB job yet, and has an option left.  Grossman and Santana are out of options. 

[nicksaviking]

The team may be lacking veteran leadership, but they aren't lacking veterans. If they feel that leadership is important and the current vets don't have it, then they need to be making some hard decisions, not easy ones like optioning the young guys. Who is supposed to be learning these leadership skills anyway, the young guys sitting in AAA or Robbie Grossman and Phil Hughes?

 

If Hughes, Gibson, Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Kintzler, Pressly, Perkins, Grossman etc. aren't good enough veteran leaders that the team has to bring in more, then they should go, not Kepler, Berrios and Chargois.

 

Even if it hurts. Even if it makes some people look foolish. Even if it costs money.

 

If those guys ARE good leaders, then they have more than enough.

[Vanimal46]

 

The team may be lacking veteran leadership, but they aren't lacking veterans. If they feel that leadership is important, then they need to be making some hard decisions, not easy ones like optioning the young guys. Who is supposed to be learning these leadership skills anyway, the young guys sitting in AAA or Robbie Grossman and Phil Hughes?

 

If Hughes, Gibson, Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Kintzler, Pressly, Perkins, Grossman etc. aren't good enough veteran leaders that the team has to bring in more, then they should go, not Kepler, Berrios and Chargois.

 

Even if it hurts. Even if it makes some people look foolish. Even if it costs money.

 

Yes. Concur. 100x concur. 

[Blake]

 

The team may be lacking veteran leadership, but they aren't lacking veterans. If they feel that leadership is important and the current vets don't have it, then they need to be making some hard decisions, not easy ones like optioning the young guys. Who is supposed to be learning these leadership skills anyway, the young guys sitting in AAA or Robbie Grossman and Phil Hughes?

 

If Hughes, Gibson, Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Kintzler, Pressly, Perkins, Grossman etc. aren't good enough veteran leaders that the team has to bring in more, then they should go, not Kepler, Berrios and Chargois.

 

Even if it hurts. Even if it makes some people look foolish. Even if it costs money.

 

If those guys ARE good leaders, then they have more than enough.

The "someone needs to step up" approach. I completely agree. 

 

I would argue that it's also the job of the manager to identify the players who can lead and motivate them to lead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd take Vogelsong over Santiago who I don't think is a lock for the rotation.   Only the last 2 season he has been a full time starter.

I'd be pretty surprised if they paid Santiago $8 mil to open the season in the bullpen.  He hasn't opened a season in the pen since 2013, his first full MLB season.

[laloesch]

 

I'd take Vogelsong over Santiago who I don't think is a lock for the rotation.   Only the last 2 season he has been a full time starter.

 

As far as OF goes, I think that the only lock is Buxton and maybe Kepler, so Grossman, Santana, Rosario, Stubbs, Shuck, & Palka are competing for 2-3 spots.  Not sure that Rosario has earned an MLB job yet, and has an option left.  Grossman and Santana are out of options. 

 

If Santiago pitches the rest of spring training like yesterday he better not get a starter spot by default.  That was atrocious.

[Deduno Abides]

Going to keep banging this drum: in the outfield, the solution should be None of the Above. Granite is the best candidate. Today, Fangraphs' KATOH and KATOH+ both rated Granite as the Twins' best prospect. In KATOH+, which accounts for pedigree, he was lower, but still in the neighborhood of well-regarded prospects like Aaron Judge, Brett Honeywell, Willie Calhoun and Kolby Allard. In KATOH, he was rated 23rd overall, ahead of Dan Vogelbach and Michael Kopech, among others.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

Going to keep banging this drum: in the outfield, the solution should be None of the Above. Granite is the best candidate. Today, Fangraphs' KATOH and KATOH+ both rated Granite as the Twins' best prospect. In KATOH+, which accounts for pedigree, he was lower, but still in the neighborhood of well-regarded prospects like Aaron Judge, Brett Honeywell, Willie Calhoun and Kolby Allard. In KATOH, he was rated 23rd overall, ahead of Dan Vogelbach and Michael Kopech, among others.

I think Granite is too valuable (potentially) to sit around as a 4th outfielder. I think he is Polanco/Rosario/Kepler/Grossman insurance. You put him in AAA, and see what happens in the first few months at AAA/the bigs, and go from there. He's got talent, but I'd want to see a bit more at AAA and see what the other 4 do, for now.

[Danchat]

Breslow is 36, Belisle is 36, and Vogelsong is 39, and they could all make the team. That's not okay.

We need guys like Chargois, Rogers, and Duffey in the bullpen, not late 30s guys at the ends of their careers. 

 

I like Belisle and I think he'll be fine, but Vogelsong has never pitched in the AL and his last two seasons have been poor. Breslow is trying out a new throwing style and hasn't been good since 2013. They're fine AAA filler but I don't want them pitching in the majors unless half the bullpen is injured.

[DaveW]

I don't want any of these guys near this roster unless they are taking Danny Santanas roster spot. Its a rebuilding club, we don't need to be giving playing time to guys with zero upside. Period.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think Granite is too valuable (potentially) to sit around as a 4th outfielder. I think he is Polanco/Rosario/Kepler/Grossman insurance. You put him in AAA, and see what happens in the first few months at AAA/the bigs, and go from there. He's got talent, but I'd want to see a bit more at AAA and see what the other 4 do, for now.

IMO Granite's ceiling is a 4th OF'er, so I don't think it matters how soon he takes that role.

[mlhouse]

The Twins would rather have 30+ year old replacement level players on their roster and lose 95+ games than their own prospects.  This has been a tradition throughout this entire rebuilding phase.

 

You have to get your players up to the big leagues, even if "they arent ready" to evaluate and develop them.  Sending J.J. Berrios back down to AAA so he can dominate minor league hitters some more has no value any more to the team.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I don't want any of these guys near this roster unless they are taking Danny Santanas roster spot. Its a rebuilding club, we don't need to be giving playing time to guys with zero upside. Period.

Dave, Where have you been? I've been missing your acid comments. By the way, I agree wholeheartedly with what you just wrote.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Zack Granite is the man for the 4th OF spot, late inning pinch runner, late inning defensive replacement, and replacement when one of the 3 starting OF rests. Heck, he and Buck are so fast, the Twins could play just the 2 of them in the OF and play the 3rd OF at shortstop, if we had 2 shortstops. But then we don't even have 1 SS.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sending J.J. Berrios back down to AAA so he can dominate minor league hitters some more has no value any more to the team.

But sending J.J. Berrios back down to AAA would be dyn-o-mite!

 

Edited March 2, 2017 by spycake

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Hey wait a minute...I just noticed something about all these posts.... Why am I the only one who has "0 warning points" printed under my name? Are you trying o tell me something?

[jud6312]

I never thought I'd say this, but if Stubbs, Paulsen and Shuck are competing with Santana, I'm cheering for Santana.

 

If we're talking about low upside players, I'll take the youngest one and roll the dice.