Article: Draft Preview: Five to Focus On

[Willihammer]

 

Are you willing to take someone that isn't likely to go Top 5 first overall? To *maybe* get a guy that drops?

 

Or would you rather have the guy you like the most and two other Top 40 talents?

 

The Twins have always played the draft relatively straight and I'd expect that to happen again. 

Don't the top players/agents have a pretty good idea of where they're going to sign before the draft starts based on conversations that take place before the draft? Or is it more up in the air than that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Are you willing to take someone that isn't likely to go Top 5 first overall? To *maybe* get a guy that drops?

 

Or would you rather have the guy you like the most and two other Top 40 talents?

 

The Twins have always played the draft relatively straight and I'd expect that to happen again. 

 

I think the implication is that you do something like that if there's little gap between the top 5 talents.  There's a pretty big difference between 1 and 5, and someone might give up some slot for a guarantee... I would think... now if that slotting difference isn't quite that big, then you're right. 

 

For me, it's more of a curiosity. If there's a clear BPA, you take him, no question.  But if there's not really a gap there, then perhaps that's a game you play.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I think the implication is that you do something like that if there's little gap between the top 5 talents.  There's a pretty big difference between 1 and 5, and someone might give up some slot for a guarantee... I would think... now if that slotting difference isn't quite that big, then you're right. 

 

For me, it's more of a curiosity. If there's a clear BPA, you take him, no question.  But if there's not really a gap there, then perhaps that's a game you play.

2017 slots: 

1 $7,400,000 Twins
2 $6,850,000 Reds
3 $6,350,000 Padres
4 $5,860,000 Rays
5 $5,435,000 Braves
6 $5,050,000 Athletics

 

2016 slots:

1. Phillies $9,015,000
2. Reds $7,762,900
3. Braves $6,510,800
4. Rockies $5,258,700
5. Brewers $4,382,200
6. Athletics $4,069,200

 

The talent gap was always much more narrow than the money gap. Now it might be the other way around. You could lose a few million dollars if you dropped from 2 to 5 before. Now it's half that. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Plus, if the top 5 are about the same, how do you convince one of them to take number 5 money, given they will feel likely to be picked 1-3?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Plus, if the top 5 are about the same, how do you convince one of them to take number 5 money, given they will feel likely to be picked 1-3?

 

You don't convince one of the Top 5 to take #5 money.

 

For example, Carlos Correa wasn't a Top 5 lock, so the Astros saved money on him by taking him first... and Correa was going to take less cause he could have dropped to 5 or 6 or lower. (I think the Twins would have taken him had Buxton gone first.)

 

Last year, you could negotiate with the guy you wanted first and say, "Listen, if you don't take $7.6m from us, you better hope you go second... or you might not make $6." 

 

The Twins could get someone to agree to $7m this year, but that's only banking $400,000, not $1,400,000.

[Willihammer]

 

2017 slots: 

1 $7,400,000 Twins
2 $6,850,000 Reds
3 $6,350,000 Padres
4 $5,860,000 Rays
5 $5,435,000 Braves
6 $5,050,000 Athletics

 

2016 slots:

1. Phillies $9,015,000
2. Reds $7,762,900
3. Braves $6,510,800
4. Rockies $5,258,700
5. Brewers $4,382,200
6. Athletics $4,069,200

 

The talent gap was always much more narrow than the money gap. Now it might be the other way around. You could lose a few million dollars if you dropped from 2 to 5 before. Now it's half that. 

For my own sake here are slot values into the 2nd round, since the Twins pick at 35 and 37.

 

 

7 $4,777,000 Diamondbacks
8 $4,552,300 Phillies
9 $4,352,000 Brewers
10 $4,168,000 Angels
11 $3,998,900 White Sox
12 $3,839,600 Pirates
13 $3,690,900 Marlins
14 $3,549,800 Royals
15 $3,417,000 Astros
16 $3,293,600 Yankees
17 $3,174,200 Mariners
18 $3,061,200 Tigers
19 $2,953,700 Giants
20 $2,851,600 Mets
21 $2,754,400 Orioles
22 $2,661,800 Blue Jays
23 $2,573,800 Dodgers
24 $2,489,800 Red Sox
25 $2,409,700 Nationals
26 $2,333,200 Rangers
27 $2,260,100 Cubs
28 $2,193,000 Blue Jays
29 $2,132,100 Rangers
30 $2,080,100 Cubs

31 $2,033,000 Rays
32 $1,985,000 Reds
33 $1,936,500 Athletics
34 $1,889,000 Brewers
35 $1,843,000 Twins
36 $1,798,700 Marlins

37 $1,758,000.00 Twins
38 $1,716,800 Reds
39 $1,676,700 Padres
40 $1,632,700 Rays
41 $1,594,700 Braves
42 $1,557,500 Pirates
43 $1,521,100 Athletics
44 $1,485,700 Diamondbacks
45 $1,451,100 Phillies

 

[Willihammer]

I wonder if the Twins would be able to find a college hitter like the Cubs did with Schwarber, pay him 3-4m at #1 than take 2 more ~20-ish talents at 35 and 37 with #15 type slot money.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You don't convince one of the Top 5 to take #5 money.

 

For example, Carlos Correa wasn't a Top 5 lock, so the Astros saved money on him by taking him first... and Correa was going to take less cause he could have dropped to 5 or 6 or lower. (I think the Twins would have taken him had Buxton gone first.)

 

Last year, you could negotiate with the guy you wanted first and say, "Listen, if you don't take $7.6m from us, you better hope you go second... or you might not make $6." 

 

The Twins could get someone to agree to $7m this year, but that's only banking $400,000, not $1,400,000.

 

Agreed, I was responding to the poster that said if the top 5 are about the same, offer to sign one of them for less, at least I think that's what the person was saying.

 

Frankly, I'd rather have the elite talent, and a top 40 guy, than a top 15-20 guy, and hope another top 20 guy a: drops, b: will sign with you.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW tweeted it is total speculation on his part, but that Greene is the least likely player in the draft to get to pick 3....

[Mike Sixel]

How does Hunter Greene compare to other recent HS RHP phenoms? Guys like Bundy, pre-TJ Giolito, and Taillon.

 

KLAW:

Nobody has thrown this hard except Pint, and Greene does it much easier. Giolito and Bundy had better secondary stuff at this age. Greene is probably the best athlete of this whole group. And he can play plus defense at short.

[markos]

 

Agreed, I was responding to the poster that said if the top 5 are about the same, offer to sign one of them for less, at least I think that's what the person was saying.

 

Frankly, I'd rather have the elite talent, and a top 40 guy, than a top 15-20 guy, and hope another top 20 guy a: drops, b: will sign with you.

Regardless who they at a 1-1, they should be able to bank some money. I don't think anyone 1-1 pick has signed for full slot yet. Most of the top-5 picks have all be underslot to one degree or another. They won't be able to bank a ton (like recent years), but I'm guessing something like $500k. Having almost back-to-back picks at 35 & 37 should allow them to pounce if a top player does fall to them. They can grab the player at #35 and then pick someone significantly underslot at #37. Adding that to the savings at with the first pick, they could probably offer $3M+ at #35 if a player warranted it, which is basically what the major overslot players received last year from the Reds/Braves/Phillies. This won't require any shenanigans with the 1-1 pick. Just take the best player.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Regardless who they at a 1-1, they should be able to bank some money. I don't think anyone 1-1 pick has signed for full slot yet. Most of the top-5 picks have all be underslot to one degree or another. They won't be able to bank a ton (like recent years), but I'm guessing something like $500k. Having almost back-to-back picks at 35 & 37 should allow them to pounce if a top player does fall to them. They can grab the player at #35 and then pick someone significantly underslot at #37. Adding that to the savings at with the first pick, they could probably offer $3M+ at #35 if a player warranted it, which is basically what the major overslot players received last year from the Reds/Braves/Phillies. This won't require any shenanigans with the 1-1 pick. Just take the best player.

 

good points all around!

[Monkeypaws]

My list:

 

Greene

Greene

Greene

Greene

Greene

Greene

Greene

Greene

Greene

 

Who knows what this prodigy is capable of.

[Vanimal46]

 

How does Hunter Greene compare to other recent HS RHP phenoms? Guys like Bundy, pre-TJ Giolito, and Taillon.

 

KLAW:

Nobody has thrown this hard except Pint, and Greene does it much easier. Giolito and Bundy had better secondary stuff at this age. Greene is probably the best athlete of this whole group. And he can play plus defense at short.

 

Man, if this guy plays plus defense at short, it's a serious toss-up what position he will play in the future. 

[Lefty74]

Athletically seems to be a lot like Dave Winfield. He could have easily been an MLB pitcher. Dave didn't turnout too bad! Take Hunter Greene!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Man, if this guy plays plus defense at short, it's a serious toss-up what position he will play in the future. 

 

Probably not. If he can pitch at an elite level, teams will try that first. Because there are almost no number 1, and hardly any number 2, pitchers. IMO, of course.

[TwinsFaninLA]

Hunter Greene defensive play ...

 

https://twitter.com/evan_b/status/837464956488425473

[markos]

 

Probably not. If he can pitch at an elite level, teams will try that first. Because there are almost no number 1, and hardly any number 2, pitchers. IMO, of course.

From everything I've read, Greene, as a shortstop, would be in 1st round consideration but not an top pick. He is not at the same level as Machado, Correa or other elite HS SS players.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

My non-sabermetrics view on Hunter Greene is pretty high. He's a gamble coming out of high school, but his athleticism and character make him a good bet to me.

Baseball America (I know, relax) had a good story about his work ethic, intelligence, and overall
character. Even if the Twins don't take him, I'll be keeping an eye on him to see how his career pans out, if it does.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/get-to-know/

Thanks for posting that video. Of course it's a fluff piece to a certain extent, but I really was drawn in by the talk of the pitching specialist.

It was also at that age that Hunter began working with Alan Jaeger, a pitching coach widely considered a pioneer of arm health and velocity development.

 

Also, he seems unusually focused for a teenager.

Very interesting.

[Mike Sixel]

I find this exercise interesting, if not totally predictive. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-college-players-by-maybe-predictive-stats-10/

 

[Willihammer]

Thought this was interesting. This guy thinks Bukauskas' delivery puts his UCL at risk.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gFBFdVIZFU

[Deduno Abides]

I find this exercise interesting, if not totally predictive. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-college-players-by-maybe-predictive-stats-10/

One interesting thing about this article is how a similar article in 2015 was the first time I saw Benintendi rated highly, even higher than Swanson and Bregman, although they and Fulmer were all rated highly.

[Deduno Abides]

Thought this was interesting. This guy thinks Bukauskas' delivery puts his UCL at risk.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gFBFdVIZFU

Seems like showing video of a young pitcher and predicting a future UCL issue is the prognosticator's equivalent of shooting fish in a barrel.

[gunnarthor]

Bukauskas is a pretty exciting guy but other places have noted some concern with his effort/delivery.  

 

With 35 and 37, it's also possible (likely?) that a pitcher slotted for the top 15 gets injured (like Giolito or Aiken) or has a crap season (Alec Hanson) and the Twins might be able to take a gamble that way, as well.  

[Willihammer]

Reviews Wright's delivery too. Sees some elevated injury potential with him too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlPn_dGlmqI

Edited March 3, 2017 by Willihammer

[markos]

 

Seems like showing video of a young pitcher and predicting a future UCL issue is the prognosticator's equivalent of shooting fish in a barrel.

Yeah, I'd like to see him do the opposite - pick pitchers that will stay healthy.

[drjim]

I'm not either, but you wanna bet if this happens more, or less, this year? You do know the history of college coaches abusing these guys, right?

The abuse question is greatly overstated, especially in recent years. Might be 2-3 guys a year max, but vast majority of programs handle their pitchers responsibly.

 

110 pitches followed by a full weeks rest strikes me as perfectly reasonable.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Yeah, I'd like to see him do the opposite - pick pitchers that will stay healthy.

Mark Prior would have been on that list.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Thanks for posting that video. Of course it's a fluff piece to a certain extent, but I really was drawn in by the talk of the pitching specialist.

It was also at that age that Hunter began working with Alan Jaeger, a pitching coach widely considered a pioneer of arm health and velocity development.

 

Also, he seems unusually focused for a teenager.

Very interesting.

Agreed. I'm onboard the Hunter Greene bandwagon/harbor cruise boat. Seems like a special talent and amazing kid. Also think that Falvey would like the work with Jaeger. Description of work ethic and drive reminds me of Berrios.

[Deduno Abides]

Mark Prior would have been on that list.

Good form doesn't protect a pitcher from batted balls, baserunners or Dusty Baker.