Article: Draft Preview: Five to Focus On

[Vanimal46]

 

Oh, sure.  But that's a few different regimes/draft coordinators.  Things really changed under Deron Johnson.  And "safe" college arms, to me, sounded like the control specialist college pitchers Radcliff drafted - Slowey, Baker, Duensing et al.  Completely different from the high upside velocity/high risk reliever strategy of Johnson.

 

That's fair. I didn't make it clear before when I said safe college arms. Your examples definitely qualify. Johnson's high velocity, converting relievers into starters hasn't worked out well either. If they're searching for a front-line starter, I hope this time they take someone who's currently starting. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Agree on Kendall.

 

How much upside does Wright have? He is sitting low-to-mid 90s, and occasionally cracking 95. Translating that to pro-ball workload, that isn't terribly impressive. Gerrit Cole he is not (as one recent example). Is he even at the Kevin Gausman level? It will be interesting to see how his velocity tracks during the next months, but right now I'm not impressed.

 

He's still maturing physically. He's still developing as a starter after relieving his first season. I'd say he's got a ton of upside. 

 

When I did my fall "ask-around" (before the Twins clinched the #1 spot), one scout told me he'd take Wright first overall. 

[Trov]

From all I read I want Greene, but I would use him as a fielder first, as long as he has good hit tool.  From what I read he has the heat, but other pitchers are behind, as expected from a HS pitcher.  If he fails as a hitter you can change to pitcher easier than from pitcher to hitter after missing so much time hitting, being he would never hit in the organization.

 

For those thinking outside the box, why not use him as a hitter then dabble with him in the bullpen as a potential closer down the road.  He plays game as a position player and 9th comes along and he takes the mound.  I do agree one should not split what he is learning but better option than going from starter to position player.  

 

Overall as it sits now, I would take Greene start him as a hitter and if he falters move him to the mound.

[Mike Sixel]

 

From all I read I want Greene, but I would use him as a fielder first, as long as he has good hit tool.  From what I read he has the heat, but other pitchers are behind, as expected from a HS pitcher.  If he fails as a hitter you can change to pitcher easier than from pitcher to hitter after missing so much time hitting, being he would never hit in the organization.

 

For those thinking outside the box, why not use him as a hitter then dabble with him in the bullpen as a potential closer down the road.  He plays game as a position player and 9th comes along and he takes the mound.  I do agree one should not split what he is learning but better option than going from starter to position player.  

 

Overall as it sits now, I would take Greene start him as a hitter and if he falters move him to the mound.

 

He has the potential to be an ACE, and you'd not use him as a pitcher? I'm not sure I understand, but am open to reading more...

[VikingGuy]

My board is exactly ONE deep.  Hunter Greene.  In what looks like a weak draft, he probably has the most upside.  And he has a "fall back" option in that if pitching doesn't seem to work out, they could move him to a position and at least get something out of the pick.  At the very least, he may develop into a closer.

[twinsfanstreif]

Too early to figure out who the Twins should pick.

 

However. The last prep pitcher who was drafted 1-1 and signed, was a "cannot miss prospect" like Hunter Greene is. The immortal Brien Taylor, lefty mind you. (Great retrospective on that signing here. A must for any Greene fans.)

 

The competition that high schoolers are facing is about 5-10% (at best) of what College pitchers are facing (and this assumes that 1 of their opponents will make it as a starter in a College squad, which is not really true.) And if one has a 98 mph fastball as their only good pitch, he can fool a lot of high school kids....

Counter point, This is also the same line of thinking that had 5 teams drafting College pitchers over Kershaw in 2006, only 1 of which turned into a good pitcher (as a reliever mind you) in Andrew Miller. Also in that draft multiple teams passed on Lincecum because he was small and was destined for the pen, kinda like Bukauskas. The last few guys I remember having this conversation about were Jameson Tallion, Dylan Bundy, and Lucus Giolito. In those cases the 1st two have made it to the majors and pitched quite well and Giolito is one of the best prospects in the minors. Aiken was obviously another guy who was talked about like this but no one could've predicted his circumstances and he could still end up being good

[nicksaviking]

 

I would never let my kid go to a college program if he would be a top HS pitcher/1st/2nd round pick. Most of the coaches don't care about the athletes at all. 

 

That's the feeling I get, though to be fair, they probably do actually care about the players and do want them to have success, it would be hard to get into coaching if you don't have at least some interest in young people. They just seem to care about their job security much, much more. Unreasonably too considering college baseball coaches don't get fired nearly as much as their counterparts in the higher profile football and basketball ranks.

 

I'd bet they justify it to themselves because the pitcher says he wants to go out there for another inning, they then conveniently forget that athletes, and young men in general, have a tendency to have low impulse control and a vision only of the here-and-now and these young men need an adult with a big picture view to reign in their recklessness.

[laloesch]

Greene is whom i'm gunning for.  I realize it's VERY early but if he fails to pan out as a starting pitcher he could always be groomed into a shortstop.  Is this a weak starting draft?  

[twinsfanstreif]

My board is exactly ONE deep. Hunter Greene. In what looks like a weak draft, he probably has the most upside. And he has a "fall back" option in that if pitching doesn't seem to work out, they could move him to a position and at least get something out of the pick. At the very least, he may develop into a closer.

This is not a "weak" draft by any means. I think it's actually much stronger than the last 2 years, especially pitching wise. Think about it, in 2015 Dillon Tate was the first pitcher taken and he was a college closer. Last year was one of the worst college classes I can remember and the #1 pick of Moniak is the definition of "meh." I haven't researched the depth in this class but at least the top 15 guys seem to be fairly solid. Yeah, maybe there's not a Bryce Harper but here's a news flash, there rarely is

[nicksaviking]

 

 

When I did my fall "ask-around" (before the Twins clinched the #1 spot), one scout told me he'd take Wright first overall. 

 

Was that before or after the Falvey and Lavine hiring and the Johnson & Johnson scouting director switch?

 

Just wondering because Wright looks more like a vintage Terry Ryan kind of pitcher. On the other hand Deron Johnson lately seemed to go the other way and take the bigger FB/higher ceiling arms.

[mickeymental]

seems like there's a pretty simple way to sidestep the "immortal brien taylor" syndrome: resist any and all urges to throw wayward trailer-park haymakers.

[ashbury]

Unfortunately, the rule doesn't allow you to DH for your next weakest position player....which would be fun.

The rule also doesn't let you retain the option of inserting a DH once your Babe Ruth clone hits the showers. If you submit a lineup without a DH, you lose it for the entire game.

 

If you're sure your pitcher will go 6+ innings, maybe it's worth the hassle/risk of having to pinch-hit for the rest of the game.

[Willihammer]

What are the chances Greene sticks at SS? A two-way SS / closer would be cool.

[AWOLNATION_11]

 

After Greene I've been most interested in Faedo. That might change though if he keeps throwing 120 pitches per game. Man, the velocity will leave his FB before he's 25 if he keeps getting abused like that.

 

Seriously, It's still February, some of those coaches from big programs seem to have next to no concern for anything past the June college WS. A playoff by the way that Florida is almost certainly going to be part of whether Faedo throws 119 pitches in February or not.

 

Seems a little unfair.  According to the article there was a two-out error and then a full count walk.  He was looking at a complete game at around 110 pitches before the error.  Coach probably wanted to give him one more batter to finish it off and it happened to be a full-count walk. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Seems a little unfair.  According to the article there was a two-out error and then a full count walk.  He was looking at a complete game at around 110 pitches before the error.  Coach probably wanted to give him one more batter to finish it off and it happened to be a full-count walk. 

 

why was he in the game for 110 pitches?

[AWOLNATION_11]

 

why was he in the game for 110 pitches?

 

Going for the complete game win.   If the kid is a stud and can stay effective beyond 100 pitches, I like that.   I'm not Blyleven, but I do have to say I'm not a fan of the arbitrary 100 pitches get him out of there mentality.  I'll sit back and read as this comment gets ripped apart the rest of the day. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Going for the complete game win.   If the kid is a stud and can stay effective beyond 100 pitches, I like that.   I'm not Blyleven, but I do have to say I'm not a fan of the arbitrary 100 pitches get him out of there mentality.  I'll sit back and read as this comment gets ripped apart the rest of the day. 

 

I'm not either, but you wanna bet if this happens more, or less, this year? You do know the history of college coaches abusing these guys, right?

[twinsfanstreif]

What are the chances Greene sticks at SS? A two-way SS / closer would be cool.

I'm gonna say chances are slim. He is listed at 6'4" 205 as a 17 year old which is pretty big especially considering he will probably keep growing. For context A-Rod was 6'3" 190 when he was drafted and he was considered unusually big for a SS and it was debated whether he could stick at SS, granted he played there for some years but was eventually moved to 3rd. Also Sano was 6'4" 190 when we signed him as a 16 year old so there's that

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Was that before or after the Falvey and Lavine hiring and the Johnson & Johnson scouting director switch?

 

Just wondering because Wright looks more like a vintage Terry Ryan kind of pitcher. On the other hand Deron Johnson lately seemed to go the other way and take the bigger FB/higher ceiling arms.

 

Before those things. But the scouting staff as a whole hasn't really changed. Three new guys replaced two guys that were let go.

[AWOLNATION_11]

 

I'm not either, but you wanna bet if this happens more, or less, this year? You do know the history of college coaches abusing these guys, right?

 

I'm not going to bet anything and I'll admit I have not studied up on the history of college coaches abusing their pitchers.   I was mostly trying to point out that Faedo approaching 120 pitches in this specific game seems to be more a result of how the last few batters played out versus a predetermined plan to have him throw 119 pitches.   

[Willihammer]

 

I'm gonna say chances are slim. He is listed at 6'4" 205 as a 17 year old which is pretty big especially considering he will probably keep growing. For context A-Rod was 6'3" 190 when he was drafted and he was considered unusually big for a SS and it was debated whether he could stick at SS, granted he played there for some years but was eventually moved to 3rd. Also Sano was 6'4" 190 when we signed him as a 16 year old so there's that

I just wonder about the "two-way" pitcher helium. After all, Jake Arrieta had the highest wRC+ among pitchers last year with a 91. Whereas at catcher- the next "easiest" position to be a two-way player, 14 guys had wRC+'s above 91. In other words, its relatively hard to be a two-way catcher, compared to a two way pitcher.

 

People talk about Greene like he has a safety in his bat if the pitching doesn't work out. Well, depends where he is on the diamond. If he can stick at SS, then yeah maybe there is a real net there. If he's gotta play 3rd or OF, how much of a net does he really have?

Edited February 27, 2017 by Willihammer

[baumannmd]

My non-sabermetrics view on Hunter Greene is pretty high. He's a gamble coming out of high school, but his athleticism and character make him a good bet to me.

 

Baseball America (I know, relax) had a good story about his work ethic, intelligence, and overall

character. Even if the Twins don't take him, I'll be keeping an eye on him to see how his career pans out, if it does.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/get-to-know/

[Dr. Evil]

Hunter Greene's build reminds me of Dave Winfield.

[Mike Sixel]

benjamin
12:30 does hunter greene have a very good chance to remain a starter?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:31 I think so. Elite level athlete for a pitcher, delivery is gorgeous, prototypical size/strength, there's nothing not to like.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

benjamin
12:30 does hunter greene have a very good chance to remain a starter?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:31 I think so. Elite level athlete for a pitcher, delivery is gorgeous, prototypical size/strength, there's nothing not to like.

 

That's different than, "Should Greene go 1-1?"

 

Greene's becoming a cult hero in the Twin Cities.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's different than, "Should Greene go 1-1?"

 

Greene's becoming a cult hero in the Twin Cities.

 

Backup QB syndnrome, and hope, and his amazing ability which none of us have seen....

[mlhouse]

 

Hunter Greene's build reminds me of Dave Winfield.

 

I saw teh video of his season opener and he looked like Doc Gooden/Dave WInfield going out on that mound.  My initial thought would be to avoid the HS pitcher, but after looking at taht his physical athleticism on the mound is just intimidating.  

 

He is the obvious #1 pick for the Twins.  If I am the Twins I am also moving him swiftly up the minors.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Two of the top 5? No.

 

The difference between the first and second pick is only $550k, so there isn't this great incentive to take less money at #1 when you can get nearly the same amount at #2. 

 

End of the day, though, they could maybe save $400k. They do have some flexibility with having #35 and #37. Maybe they have a guy they really like that agrees to take $1m at #35 and then they have $2m they can spend at #37 (but that's only equal to the #31 pick).

 

So long story longer, they do have some financial flexibility, but not enough to get two top 5 talents. They'd be better off banking it all until Round 11 and taking a Round 3-4 high school talent again like they did last year in Benninghoff.

 

That makes sense... so here's the real question.  Is there a guy or guys that may be a mid-first rounder that would fit the mold of someone they could offer an overslot to at 35 or 37 who they could entice to demand a lot more if they could get their top pick under slot by a bit?  (Hint, that might be an interesting series on its own).

 

Given how hard it is to find successful picks after round 1, this seems like an option they should strongly consider.. unless of course they are enamored by the HS talent in this draft.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

That makes sense... so here's the real question.  Is there a guy or guys that may be a mid-first rounder that would fit the mold of someone they could offer an overslot to at 35 or 37 who they could entice to demand a lot more if they could get their top pick under slot by a bit?  (Hint, that might be an interesting series on its own).

 

Given how hard it is to find successful picks after round 1, this seems like an option they should strongly consider.. unless of course they are enamored by the HS talent in this draft.

 

 

Are you willing to take someone that isn't likely to go Top 5 first overall? To *maybe* get a guy that drops?

 

Or would you rather have the guy you like the most and two other Top 40 talents?

 

The Twins have always played the draft relatively straight and I'd expect that to happen again. 

[Mike Sixel]

No chance I pass on elite talent for the small chance someone falls.