Article: TD Top Prospects: #1 Fernando Romero

[Deduno Abides]

Good choice, good write-up.

 

 

Some superficial analogies:

 

 

Romero is a power arm with command like Jake Arrieta and Corey Kluber, neither of whom were well-regarded before people realized they were great. For example, John Sickels, June 25, 2013, after Kluber started the season strong: "Kluber isn't an ace-type and I think he's a league-average pitcher when all is said and done." Arrieta was BA #99 in 2010, the year of his debut, and - trivia time - he was sent back to the minors so the O's could call up Alex Burnett, who still had a good rep from his time with the Twins.

 

Congratulations to the TD team for trusting their own intelligence for this selection instead of being swayed by general analysis.

[Bob Sacamento]

For those wondering, Romero has knocked off 10 lbs this offseason, figured I mention it since someone said Bartolo Colon-esque physique. 

[gunnarthor]

 

When is our apology to Bill Smith scheduled? (Kidding....mostly. Yet another top prospect his aggressive international work produced)

In all honesty, he deserves credit for pushing in Latin America and continuing to do so after he was dismissed as GM but the credit for Romero (and a guy like Thorpe) belongs to the individual scouts that said this kid was worth a quarter of a million dollars.  I don't know who that guy was but he did good.

[alskntwnsfn]

Great job on these write ups, I really enjoyed them. I'm sold on Romero being #1... sounds fantastic. I hope they aren't too patient with him. No sense overworking him this year, but he needs to face challenging competition in order to become the best he can be. So if he's dealing, promote him.

[TheLeviathan]

In all honesty, he deserves credit for pushing in Latin America and continuing to do so after he was dismissed as GM but the credit for Romero (and a guy like Thorpe) belongs to the individual scouts that said this kid was worth a quarter of a million dollars.  I don't know who that guy was but he did good.

To put it bluntly, you wouldn't attempt gymnastics like this if it had been under Ryan.

 

Take a second to consider how lost this club would be without the international signings under smith. Success the likes of which Ryan, with the same scouts, never even remotely approached.

[Deduno Abides]

To put it bluntly, you wouldn't attempt gymnastics like this if it had been under Ryan.

Take a second to consider how lost this club would be without the international signings under smith. Success the likes of which Ryan, with the same scouts, never even remotely approached.

One other comment on Smith: while he was GM, a couple of friends met him and thought he was one of the nicest people they'd ever met. One report was that their meeting was late at night, after most staff had left, and that he was still working.

[bird]

 

When is our apology to Bill Smith scheduled? (Kidding....mostly. Yet another top prospect his aggressive international work produced)

 

 

Again, Billy Smith never followed any of these guys. He had zero influence on this. He has never once had an independent opinion about any of them. He didn't develop a relationship with any of these prospects' handlers. And in fact, the area scout who DID develop that relationship had much much more to do with the signing of the first contract, including the amount behind the dollar sign, than Billy Smith ever had. We could have substituted any FO type as a substitute player in this IFA process and gotten the exact same results. Billy Smith WAS a replacement player himself. But, I know, we want to believe differently.

 

Billy Smith should get credit for his role in persuading his owner to increase the IFA budget a dozen years ago. He had much more than replacement value in that regard. It's in that context that I agree with you that Romero is yet another international prospect that is a product (in part) of Billy Smith's aggressive international efforts.

[Thrylos]

 

In all honesty, he deserves credit for pushing in Latin America and continuing to do so after he was dismissed as GM but the credit for Romero (and a guy like Thorpe) belongs to the individual scouts that said this kid was worth a quarter of a million dollars.  I don't know who that guy was but he did good.

 

This crediting the scouts cuts both ways. See: Nishioka, Tsuyoshi

[twinssouth]

should be quite the season in Chattanooga. New Manager (Jake Mauer) and hopefully, all the young Twins pitching studs on the same team. So look at what Mauer can trot out there

 

Romero

Jay

Stewart

Gonsalves

Jorge

 

Include Gordon at short, Maybe Granite in CF, should be quite the team. May have to camp out few nights at ballpark.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

To put it bluntly, you wouldn't attempt gymnastics like this if it had been under Ryan.

Take a second to consider how lost this club would be without the international signings under smith. Success the likes of which Ryan, with the same scouts, never even remotely approached.

?  I suppose we could argue that Ryan would have passed on Sano et al but we've seen his international signings as well so I'm not sure that's a huge point.  And while Sano is a huge get, I'm not sure guys like Diaz, Javier et al won't be equal to or better than guys signed under Smith.  It just takes a while to grade out the classes when most of them are signed at 16.  

 

But Ryan probably wouldn't have traded away Garza or Ramos either, so ...  

[gunnarthor]

 

This crediting the scouts cuts both ways. See: Nishioka, Tsuyoshi

Yeah, they've certainly had their misses, too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Move Randy Rosario and Keaton Steele to the bullpen.

I agree.

 

Randy Rosario was moved to the bullpen at the beginning of August 2016.  I don't know if it was a temporary innings limit thing or what, but his stats were thoroughly middling up to that point in the FSL (league-average run prevention, well below league average K rate).  But his K rate immediately jumped in the pen (26 K's in 15.1 IP).

 

Keaton Steele posted the same middling numbers while being 2.5 years older than Rosario and right-handed.  I'm not sure why anyone would want to move him up the ladder as a starter either.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I know the big league rotation for the Twins isn't exactly one that triggers much excitement going into this year, but I think it's pretty easy to be bullish with respect to where our pitching staff could end up by mid-season next year.

 

With some good luck with trajectories and health, we could see a mid-2018 rotation something like:

 

1. Romero

2. Berrios

3. Free Agent investment

4. Gonsalves

5. May/Mejia/Stewart/Duffey/Jay

 

Back that up with Chargois, Burdi and, potentially, Jay hopefully evolving into upper, upper echelon flame-throwing relievers, and that projects to be nasty.  (I know there are other quality RP prospects in the pipe, of course.)

 

Throw in the "Falvey factor," and I'm cautiously optimistic about where the pitching staff is headed for the first time in a very long time.

Mine would be 

1. Romero

2. Gonsalves

3. Berrios

4. May

5. Mejia

 

That will be a really good rotation. Unfortunately, guys like Santana and Hughes will still be under contract throughout 2018. Hughes is locked up through 2019, but he could be moved to the pen.

 

So it might more realistically look like:

1. Romero
2. Gonsalves
3. Santana
4. Berrios
5. Mejia/May

 

At least until the end of 2018.

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I really like Romero so I should probably resist saying this but our system is lacking top talent if he's our number one. We probably have 10 top 5-7 types but really lacking the upper echelon talent. Romero is by far our best prospect but in a good year he's probably 2-3 type

Have you actually looked at his stats for 2016? In my book he's easily a number 1 pitcher. He dominates.

 

I tend to look more at results than stuff, but he has the stuff and results to be a no. 1. He was 9-3 last year with a 1.89 ERA, with a 6-1 K/BB ratio and a 0.90 whip.

 

He dominated last year. Right now, he's a legit No. 1. Will he stay there? Time will tell. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

?  I suppose we could argue that Ryan would have passed on Sano et al but we've seen his international signings as well so I'm not sure that's a huge point.  And while Sano is a huge get, I'm not sure guys like Diaz, Javier et al won't be equal to or better than guys signed under Smith.  It just takes a while to grade out the classes when most of them are signed at 16.  

 

But Ryan probably wouldn't have traded away Garza or Ramos either, so ...  

 

Yes, we have seen Ryan's signings.  That's the point.  And that was my original point - say what you want about his trade history (he bungled a ton of moves) but Smith aced this part of his job.  And without that we'd be in serious trouble right now.

 

And let's be clear - it's not just Sano.  It's also Kepler and Romero as huge highlights.  I find it odd that Bill Smith hit so many homeruns in his relatively short time with the same scouts Ryan had for two decades and produced nothing even close to these three.  Bill is just really lucky at this?

 

And more than anything...why is it so god damn hard to say "Yeah, Bill Smith did some things bad, but damned if he didn't do this right....thanks Bill"?  It's absurdly obvious reading those gymnastics of yours how hard you're trying to not give credit to him when I'm sure in a few years you'll be right there to pat ol' Terry on the back if (by some luck) one of his signings actually pans out.  C'mon.

Edited February 24, 2017 by TheLeviathan

[gunnarthor]

 

Yes, we have seen Ryan's signings.  That's the point.  And that was my original point - say what you want about his trade history (he bungled a ton of moves) but Smith aced this part of his job.  And without that we'd be in serious trouble right now.

 

And let's be clear - it's not just Sano.  It's also Kepler and Romero as huge highlights.  I find it odd that Bill Smith hit so many homeruns in his relatively short time with the same scouts Ryan had for two decades and produced nothing even close to these three.  Bill is just really lucky at this?

 

And more than anything...why is it so god damn hard to say "Yeah, Bill Smith did some things bad, but damned if he didn't do this right....thanks Bill"?  It's absurdly obvious reading those gymnastics of yours how hard you're trying to not give credit to him when I'm sure in a few years you'll be right there to pat ol' Terry on the back if (by some luck) one of his signings actually pans out.  C'mon.

I think you're reading a bit much into this.  The international signings under Smith were great and he pushed ownership to pay a record amount for Sano.  That's all great.  The point I was trying to make with Romero was that Romero wasn't a huge financial signing but a scout pushed for him. 

 

As for Ryan, not sure why we're set on dragging him into this but since we've just seen the 2009 international signing guys make the majors, we'll probably have a few years before we can see the 2012+ groups.  

 

As for why people are somewhat dissatisfied with Smith is because he inherited a pretty young ML team and made some trades that didn't work out in either the short term or the long term.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think you're reading a bit much into this.  The international signings under Smith were great 

 

Which is all I said.  And you immediately tried to pull the credit out from under him.  In the last twenty years has Ryan signed any IFA better than Sano, Kepler, or Romero?  Not that I can see.

 

And if not, we should just stop where I cut your quote.  Smith was good at this and we're damn lucky he was.  Without Kepler and Sano we'd be staring 100 losses square in the face again.

[gunnarthor]

 

Which is all I said.  And you immediately tried to pull the credit out from under him.  In the last twenty years has Ryan signed any IFA better than Sano, Kepler, or Romero?  Not that I can see.

 

And if not, we should just stop where I cut your quote.  Smith was good at this and we're damn lucky he was.  Without Kepler and Sano we'd be staring 100 losses square in the face again.

I think you're overreacting a bit.  

[Dantes929]

 

Mine would be 

1. Romero

2. Gonsalves

3. Berrios

4. May

5. Mejia

 

That will be a really good rotation. Unfortunately, guys like Santana and Hughes will still be under contract throughout 2018. Hughes is locked up through 2019, but he could be moved to the pen.

 

So it might more realistically look like:

1. Romero
2. Gonsalves
3. Santana
4. Berrios
5. Mejia/May

 

At least until the end of 2018.

You say unfortunately, but unless he has a huge drop off I would say any rotation where Santana is a member but not considered the obvious #1 or #2  of that rotation is a very fortunate thing.

[Kwak]

Ryan was viewed as "the super scout", and Smith as "the org guy".  Smith didn't scout (or evaluate) the players individually per se--he pushed for the change in policy to actively seek/sign players from outside the US pool. The Nishioka deal, as Smith stated, he was merely the last signature on the paper.

 

With respect to "the trades", Smith's fault was being unable to thwart Gardenhire's demands. Anybody remember:  "the #1 priority for the Twins is to re-sign Punto"? There is no way that Gardenhire pulls that stunt with Ryan as GM. The difference was:  Ryan was strong in his role as GM and Smith wasn't.

 

As far as "the mistakes", the value of signing a star player that would have been ignored far outweighs the damage of Nishioka's signing. If the policy change of aggressively pursuing (as evidenced by actually spending the cash!) turns this team around we can fairly conclude that Smith was a good GM for the period he served.

[TheLeviathan]

 

As far as "the mistakes", the value of signing a star player that would have been ignored far outweighs the damage of Nishioka's signing. If the policy change of aggressively pursuing (as evidenced by actually spending the cash!) turns this team around we can fairly conclude that Smith was a good GM for the period he served.

 

Romero's our best shot at an ace at this point.  If he becomes that.....than Smith's tenure wasn't just good at IFA, it was the most indispensable component of our successful rebuild.  

[Thrylos]

 

Yes, we have seen Ryan's signings.  That's the point.  And that was my original point - say what you want about his trade history (he bungled a ton of moves) but Smith aced this part of his job.  And without that we'd be in serious trouble right now.

 

And let's be clear - it's not just Sano.  It's also Kepler and Romero as huge highlights.  I find it odd that Bill Smith hit so many homeruns in his relatively short time with the same scouts Ryan had for two decades and produced nothing even close to these three.  Bill is just really lucky at this?

 

And more than anything...why is it so god damn hard to say "Yeah, Bill Smith did some things bad, but damned if he didn't do this right....thanks Bill"?  It's absurdly obvious reading those gymnastics of yours how hard you're trying to not give credit to him when I'm sure in a few years you'll be right there to pat ol' Terry on the back if (by some luck) one of his signings actually pans out.  C'mon.

 

How about this:

 

Bill Smith did more things right in his tenure as a GM for the Twins than Terry Ryan did in his tenures, highlighted by the fact under Bill Smith the Twins have had a better record as a team than under Terry Ryan who was the GM under whom the Twins have had their worst record.

 

Just a fact.  But people bringing up Ramos who matter of fact was blocked by you know whom and unless Capps was brought in, the Twins would have not made it in the post-season that season...

[Deduno Abides]

Which is all I said.  And you immediately tried to pull the credit out from under him.  In the last twenty years has Ryan signed any IFA better than Sano, Kepler, or Romero?  Not that I can see.

 

And if not, we should just stop where I cut your quote.  Smith was good at this and we're damn lucky he was.  Without Kepler and Sano we'd be staring 100 losses square in the face again.

I believe Polanco was signed during Smith's tenure, also.

[Thrylos]

 

For those wondering, Romero has knocked off 10 lbs this offseason, figured I mention it since someone said Bartolo Colon-esque physique. 

 

No kidding.  Here is a shot of him from this week.  Colon?  Hardly:

(check out the change up grip btw.  Those are some huge fingers...)

 

Edited February 24, 2017 by Thrylos

[Deduno Abides]

How about this:

 

Bill Smith did more things right in his tenure as a GM for the Twins than Terry Ryan did in his tenures, highlighted by the fact under Bill Smith the Twins have had a better record as a team than under Terry Ryan who was the GM under whom the Twins have had their worst record.

 

Just a fact.  But people bringing up Ramos who matter of fact was blocked by you know whom and unless Capps was brought in, the Twins would have not made it in the post-season that season...

It's debatable about whether Capps was critical to make the playoffs, although he was better than Jon Rauch. Either way, didn't TR go on record last year as saying he would do the Ramos-Capps trade again, even with hindsight? So it's hard to say that the trade is an example of Ryan's superiority.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Have you actually looked at his stats for 2016? In my book he's easily a number 1 pitcher. He dominates.

 

I tend to look more at results than stuff, but he has the stuff and results to be a no. 1. He was 9-3 last year with a 1.89 ERA, with a 6-1 K/BB ratio and a 0.90 whip.

 

He dominated last year. Right now, he's a legit No. 1. Will he stay there? Time will tell.

He was pretty good in 2016, but the K rate wasn't super impressive. He also pitched in some very pitcher friendly environments -- the HR rate in these leagues is significantly lower than that of MLB, which is why it seems like every Twins pitching prospect has a magical ability to severely limit HR these days!

 

Not to take anything away from Romero, he's a good prospect, but he's not an elite prospect. I think the national rankings reflect that pretty well.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

You say unfortunately, but unless he has a huge drop off I would say any rotation where Santana is a member but not considered the obvious #1 or #2  of that rotation is a very fortunate thing.

Unfortunate only from the standpoint that they are not youngsters. I'd like to see the youngsters pitch. But alas, we will still need veteran arms to show them the way...

[Mr. Brooks]

Have you actually looked at his stats for 2016? In my book he's easily a number 1 pitcher. He dominates.

 

I tend to look more at results than stuff, but he has the stuff and results to be a no. 1. He was 9-3 last year with a 1.89 ERA, with a 6-1 K/BB ratio and a 0.90 whip.

 

He dominated last year. Right now, he's a legit No. 1. Will he stay there? Time will tell.

If he was "easily a number 1", he'd be the concensus #1 prospect in all of baseball.

Unless you meant that is his ceiling, of which most would agree. Very few prospects ever reach their ceiling though.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

He was pretty good in 2016, but the K rate wasn't super impressive. He also pitched in some very pitcher friendly environments -- the HR rate in these leagues is significantly lower than that of MLB, which is why it seems like every Twins pitching prospect has a magical ability to severely limit HR these days!

Not to take anything away from Romero, he's a good prospect, but he's not an elite prospect. I think the national rankings reflect that pretty well.

I'm going to politely disagree with you – until I'm proven wrong...

 

So is the Southern League also considered a pitcher-friendly environment? If Romero dominates in Chattanooga, will he be considered a possible #1 prospect? How about in Rochester? 

 

I'd say his record in A ball is still very impressive, and I believe he's the Twins' best shot at a #1 pitcher. 

 

If he falters in AA or AAA, I'll gladly be considered wrong. And maybe he is only a #2 or #3. 

 

But for now, I disagree. I agree with the TD #1 ranking. The Twins have some bright young pitchers in Gonsalves and Romero. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

As for the K rate, I don't consider that as important as ERA or wins and losses (yes, I know, that's horse and buggy thinking). And 90 strikeouts in 90.1 innings is not bad, anyway.