Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 2.0

[Seth Stohs]

In past years, I posted my first big league Roster Projections on the first day of Twins full-squad workouts. This is a couple of days late. Actually, my first 2017 Roster Projection was done following baseball’s Winter Meetings in mid-December. Here’s the second attempt, though a lot can still happen in the next six or seven weeks.

 

This is always a fun exercise. Without question, this can and will change at any time. Certainly there are several roster spots that are Givens meaning, if they are healthy, they will make the Opening Day roster. The remainder of the jobs could still be up for grabs. Spring Training statistics should not matter much in decision making, but spring training performance will matter.So here is my second attempt at projecting the Twins Opening Day roster… I encourage you to read my thoughts, develop your own and then post your thoughts and projections in the comments below.

 

THE HITTERS

 

Catchers (2): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver

 

Jason Castro will be the primary catcher. He will likely catch 110-120 games, so the question will be who can start behind the plate in the other 40-50 games.

 

Ideally, that backup would be a right-handed hitter. The three primary backup catching options all bat right-handed. Last time, I put John Ryan Murphy in the backup catcher role. He may be the favorite as spring training begins. Chris Gimenez has plenty of big league experience as a backup catcher. The Twins have asked him to spend time in the corner infield and outfield spots this spring to be more flexible. The thing he’s most got against him may be the fact that he’s not on the 40-man roster.

 

While he has the least experience, which certainly is the biggest thing he has against him, Mitch Garver might be the most well-rounded catcher in the organization. He has only about two months of time in AAA, but of the three, he’s probably got the most offensive potential. His defense has improved by leaps and bounds in recent years as well. He will have to go out and win the backup catcher spot. I think he’s capable. The question will be whether the Twins brass will want him as the big league backup, or if they’d like him to catch two out of three in AAA (and DH and play 1B in Rochester the other games).

 

Infielders (6): Kennys Vargas, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar

 

Joe Mauer will start most of the time at first base, and he should, at least against right-handers. He’ll need time off, a bunch, so Kennys Vargas will get some time there. Vargas will likely be the primary DH. Miguel Sano will likely get the majority of time at third base, though he could see time at DH and first base too. Brian Dozier will be at second base most every day. I don’t think we need to worry too much about that. Jorge Polanco should start the season as the team’s primary shortstop. His question marks with the glove make it uncertain that that he’ll stay there all year. Eduardo Escobar will likely get some starts at shortstop. He’ll also play a lot of third base when Sano is playing elsewhere. With this group (and the 13th hitter), there is some flexibility in the infield. It’s possible that Byungho Park could be a DH option as well.

 

Outfielders (4): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman

 

I think the three starters are pretty close to set. Byron Buxton will be manning center field, hopefully as close to 162 times as possible. We all hope his September showing is a sign of good things to come. If he can put up decent offensive numbers with his defense, that is immensely valuable. Max Kepler will look to improve upon a solid rookie season in the big leagues. He’s got good range and an accurate arm in right field. While he’s a line drive hitter, he is very strong and has a chance to add a lot of power as he learns to lift the ball. Eddie Rosario fought a sophomore slump in 2016 both offensively and defensively. There are no secrets with Rosario. Doesn’t want to walk. Will likely struggle to post an OBP over .300. Has some momentary lapses. Sometimes tries to do too much. But he’s very talented. If he isn’t going to walk, he just needs to know which pitches he can and can’t drive. Robbie Grossman - as I’ve written before - may be the worst defensive outfielder I’ve seen in a Twins uniform (and I’ve seen Delmon Young, Josh Willingham and some other really bad defensive outfielders). But he can crush left-handed pitching. Maybe he can play some in left field when there are ground ball pitchers. He should DH a lot against left-handed pitching.

 

13th Hitter (1): Ehire Adrianza

 

This is kind of a new category for me… There were a lot of options that fit into this category. So I thought I would address them here. Right now I’ve got Ehire Adrianza as the “25th man.” I figured with the question marks with Polanco that Adrianza can be a late-inning defensive replacement when the team has a lead. Frankly, Eduardo Escobar could hold the same role for third base as well. But there are other options as well.

 

Danny Santana may fit the role best, in some ways. His ability to at least play three outfield positions and three infield positions may have the most value to the roster. Looking at the outfielders I profiled above, it becomes clear that the team could struggle in the outfield if one of the three starters gets a day off. It may make sense to have Santana, who isn’t a plus defensive outfielder either, available. JB Shuck could be an outfield option, as could Ben Paulsen. However, the two bat left-handed. The Twins could use a right-handed outfield option to give days off to Rosario or Kepler. That’s where Drew Stubbs might make some sense as well.

 

If Chris Gimenez proves that he can play multiple positions adequately, he is likely an option as well.

 

POSSIBLE LINEUPS

 

Versus RHP: Byron Buxton CF, Joe Mauer 1B, Brian Dozier 2B, Miguel Sano 3B, Max Kepler RF, Kennys Vargas DH, Eddie Rosario LF, Jason Castro C, Jorge Polanco SS

 

Versus LHP: Byron Buxton CF, Robbie Grossman LF, Brian Dozier 2B, Miguel Sano DH, Kennys Vargas 1B, Mitch Garver C, Max Kepler RF, Eduardo Escobar 3B, Jorge Polanco SS.

 

Byron Buxton, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are the guys I want in the lineup almost every day. Kennys Vargas is in both lineups, but I would use the DH spot to also give “half days off” to guys like Dozier and Mauer and Grossman, as well.

 

 

THE PITCHERS

 

Starting Pitchers (5): Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Hector Santiago, Trevor May

 

All right, barring injury or something completely unexpected, the first four (Santana, Hughes, Gibson and Santiago) will be in the starting rotation when the season starts in April.

 

I have written several times that I think if Jose Berrios has a strong camp (and shows fastball command), he will be in the Twins starting rotation. I just can’t help but wonder how playing in the WBC will affect his opportunity to make the team on Opening Day. And that’s the reason that I have Trevor May starting the season in the rotation. While May isn't a Given to be a starting pitcher, but he's very likely guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster.

 

There will be other contenders for a spot, including Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch and Adalberto Mejia.

 

Bullpen (7): Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, JT Chargois, Taylor Rogers, Craig Breslow, Justin Haley.

 

It appears that Brandon Kintzler will go into the season as the closer. Matt Belisle and Ryan Pressly will certainly be set-up men. Taylor Rogers should have secured one of the left-handed bullpen spots.

 

So there are four of the seven bullpen spots pretty much guaranteed.

 

Let’s start with the left-handers. I am going to go with the assumption that Glen Perkins will start the season on the disabled list. That’s not necessarily the case, but probably still the more likely situation. Now I’ve got Craig Breslow taking the second lefty bullpen spot. He’s a veteran, brought in late, and the front office has frequently talked about veteran leadership. He will, of course, have to show this spring that his new arm angle will be successful. Ryan O’Rourke is the best option if they want a lefty-specialist due to his incredible numbers against same-siders. Buddy Boshers had a nice season in 2016 as well. Mason Melotakis will likely debut in 2017, but it wasn’t likely to happen at the start of the season. His oblique injury makes that more certain.

 

In my opinion, JT Chargois’s days in the minor leagues should be over. At 26 and with his September performance, he should be a given. I don’t know that he is. After that, it’s some of the same names. Justin Haley was my choice because he is either MLB-ready or very close. He could fill a long-relief role while also being able to spot start if needed.

 

That means that Ryan Vogelson and Nick Tepesch start the season off the big league roster. Michael Tonkin has a chance still to make the roster again. I think the toughest decision will be on Tyler Duffey. Could he make the team as a starter or a long-reliever? Would they start him in Rochester, and if so, would it be as a starter or a reliever?

 

We’ll probably update this every other week or so as Opening Day nears. For now, it’s a starting point for a possible roster. As I mentioned, some of the spots are certainly subject to change at any time.

 

 

What are your thoughts? What does your roster look like?

 

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[bluechipper]

Phil Hughes is much less of a lock in my mind, and Jose Berrios really should be in the opening rotation.

[beckmt]

My less than a lock include both Hughes and Gibson.  I also feel Murphy will be the backup catcher.  This is close Seth.  More pitching competition cannot hurt, a lot of it is guesses at this time.

[mumoo13]

I like the possible lineups a lot. Only significant change I would make is against LHP, we shouldn't bench Rosario too often because his splits are pretty even, and the defensive downgrade to Grossman is probably bigger than the defensive upgrade from Sano to Escobar. I think a more common lineup should be:

 

Versus LHP: Byron Buxton CF, Robbie Grossman DH, Brian Dozier 2B, Miguel Sano 3B, Kennys Vargas 1B, Max Kepler RF, Mitch Garver C, Eddie Rosario LF, Jorge Polanco SS

[nater79a]

Do Vogelsong and Tepesch have any "outs" in their minor league deals if they are not added to the 40-man roster and don't head north? Chances we see either/or in Rochester or do they look to latch on elsewhere?

[kengrosz]

WIth this roster, you lost D-Santana and Tonkin on waivers. But both should not be on a majorleague team, so i agree

[HitInAPinch]

Chris Gimenez as the backup C;  because he hits lefties well and Castro does not.  Worst case scenario:  Garver gets the call if Gimenez fails.

Vargas is too one-dimensional for my tastes.

Grossman way too slow.

Polanco's lack of experience at SS seems like a mistake as a starter.  Make him a bench player, filling in for Dozier on infrequent days off and for Escobar, when he's filling in for Sano.  P.S.  I still really like Polanco's potential at 2B.  LIKE the idea of Ehire Adrianza as #25.

IDK:  am I the only one with questions about Kepler? 

 

Gotta pair someone up with Kintzler in the closer role.  I liked Rogers last season.

 

I'll still harp on "Berrios in the bullpen". 

[FormerMinnasotan]

If Berrios isn't in the Twins rotation by early May I would be a bit upset. He's not going to pitch poorly in AAA, unless he's injured and in that case he would miss time being on the DL. I think it would be a great injustice to hold Berrios back until June or July if he is pitching well in Rochester.

 

I guess in short I want to see that the Twins FO commits to Berrios. And jerking him around and not treating him like a key to the team's success is a good way to try to turn Berrios into another Matt Garza (attitude wise). Plus if the Twins could have the patience to bring back Trevor May as a starter after a rookie season that saw him almost have stats identical to Berrios then the Twins can have the same patience with Berrios.

[beckmt]

 

I like the possible lineups a lot. Only significant change I would make is against LHP, we shouldn't bench Rosario too often because his splits are pretty even, and the defensive downgrade to Grossman is probably bigger than the defensive upgrade from Sano to Escobar. I think a more common lineup should be:

 

Versus LHP: Byron Buxton CF, Robbie Grossman DH, Brian Dozier 2B, Miguel Sano 3B, Kennys Vargas 1B, Max Kepler RF, Mitch Garver C, Eddie Rosario LF, Jorge Polanco SS

Against LHP you are going to rest either Kepler or Rosario, so I would expect Grossman to start against ever LHP, if he makes the club and I think he will.

[killertwinfan]

The mindset behind the pitching staff seems to be tied a little too much to the decision making from the past.  I want to believe that this organization is future minded and we will see more younger players crack the rotation. Obviously if guys like Hughes, Breslow, Tonkin and Perkins can pitch well, great. If they struggle, move on. We need to find out about pitchers like Berrios, Haley, Mejia and Duffy.  

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

What about Polanco leading off instead of Buxton? I'd bet on Polanco's on-base skills and strike zone control right now.

[Blackjack]

My thoughts:

 

Make Gimenez the backup catcher. In order for the Twins to improve, the pitching has to improve - a lot. Having two veteran catchers would help a lot. And I suspect thats why Falvey brought him in. 

 

Scrap Grossman and go with a defensive reserve outfielder. Again, in order for the Twins to improve, the pitching has to improve, and good defense will help the pitching.

 

Put Buxton at the bottom of the order for at least the first two months of the season.  Put him in a position to succeed without the pressure of leading off.

 

Play Polanco at least once a week at second, make Dozier take a day off now and then, keep him rested, so he isn't so streak prone.

 

Ideally May and Berrios would be in the rotation but if its pick and choose, put May in the rotation - see if starting will keep him healthy - and Berrios in the bullpen, where he can gain some confidence. He has nothing left to prove in AAA.

 

 

[bluechipper]

My thoughts:

 

Make Gimenez the backup catcher. In order for the Twins to improve, the pitching has to improve - a lot. Having two veteran catchers would help a lot. And I suspect thats why Falvey brought him in. 

 

Scrap Grossman and go with a defensive reserve outfielder. Again, in order for the Twins to improve, the pitching has to improve, and good defense will help the pitching.

 

Put Buxton at the bottom of the order for at least the first two months of the season.  Put him in a position to succeed without the pressure of leading off.

 

Play Polanco at least once a week at second, make Dozier take a day off now and then, keep him rested, so he isn't so streak prone.

 

Ideally May and Berrios would be in the rotation but if its pick and choose, put May in the rotation - see if starting will keep him healthy - and Berrios in the bullpen, where he can gain some confidence. He has nothing left to prove in AAA.

What's really the need for a 4th defensive outfielder when the 3 starters should be well above average in the field? I'd rather have a good bat off the bench.

[Mike Sixel]

I would not platoon Kepler, let him learn to hit lefties this year. He is how old?

[gunnarthor]

I think Duffey will be a starter in AAA to start with. The new FO might let him have one more shot at starting before moving him to the pen.

[mikelink45]

Lots of good things to think about.  I like your defensive/offensive decisions.  They seem to make a lot of sense.  

 

Pitching is always our worst area in both performance and discussion because we hav put ourselves in a corner.  We have locked in Santana, Hughes, Santiago, Gibson and it seems like we always have to start the discussion on number 5 in the rotation.  Signing Santiago seems like another of a series of mediocre decisions.  May and Berrios give us something to build on.  Eventually Gonsalves and Jay will be moving in so I have to hope for midseason trades to clear the logjam, but that said, I think that we are wasting an arm having Berrios go back to AAA AGAIN.  He is fun, talented, and in need of good coaching.  Isn't there a Latino pitching coach out there that we can hire?

 

In the bullpen I will be most depressed if Craig Breslow is kept.  Move on.  I am fine with Tonkin being cut, but leave Duffey or O'Rourke.  

[ThejacKmp]

1.) I imagine Mauer will still play 80%+ of games. 75% of starting pitchers are right handed and Mauer will pull some starts against lefties, I doubt it's a straight platoon.

 

2.) I'd be surprised if Garver made the team. I don't think it's his job to win, I think it's JRM and Gimenez's to lose. Again, in a straight platoon (which Castro's splits make likely), he plays 25% of the time. I just think the FO is going to want Garver catching more often at least the first few months so JRM or Gimenez will be given the opportunity to start the year (my hope is JRM, at least there's some upside there).

 

3.) Ehire Adrianza is out of options so the Twins risk losing him if they don't keep him. That said, I still think Danny Santana is the 25th man again. The Twins will have a need for 5th option in the OF and I don't see it elsewhere on the roster. It'll be interesting to see if Escobar gets some time in OF this spring (or maybe even Mauer?)

 

4.) I too would like to see Buxton hit this spring before anointing him leadoff. If he struggles at all, get him at the bottom of the lineup so there's less pressure. That said, if he hits, reward the young man. He could be one of the funnest national stories if he continues his September renaissance.

 

5.) Agreed with Jeremy on Hughes making the team. I'm not sure how long of a leash he'll be given but unless he craps the bed in training camp, I think they'll give him a shot. He's also a long-shot candidate to be moved at the deadline if he has any success.

[ThejacKmp]

 

What's really the need for a 4th defensive outfielder when the 3 starters should be well above average in the field? I'd rather have a good bat off the bench.

I think the issue is when guys get banged up a bit and day to day (ahem, Buxton) and then you're down to 3 outfielders, one atrocious. You want to at least have an option in the OF for those types of situations. That's why outside of Escobar showing decent chops in left, I think it's hard for Ehire Adrianza to make this team. Danny Santana could very well sneak in because he can play lots of positions poorly.

[VikingGuy]

1) Prefer Gimenez as the backup and Garver at AAA catching 4-5 days a week, but I don't think that'll happen b/c they'd have to get Gimenez on 40 man.

2) Curious of Duffey in the bullpen...think he could be really good there.

3) Fine with Berrios to AAA to start season.  First injury he's back up...likely to stay as other pitchers get hurt and others come off DL.

4) I want to see Rosario play 130 games in LF.  Time to find out if the kid is getting better or not...Grossman is not a long-term answer, but just a 4th OF.  Buxton plays 145 in CF, with Rosario sliding to CF.  Kepler 145 in RF, with a few days at DH.  Grossman fills in the blanks, pinch hits.

[VikingGuy]

 

Lots of good things to think about.  I like your defensive/offensive decisions.  They seem to make a lot of sense.  

 

Pitching is always our worst area in both performance and discussion because we hav put ourselves in a corner.  We have locked in Santana, Hughes, Santiago, Gibson and it seems like we always have to start the discussion on number 5 in the rotation.  Signing Santiago seems like another of a series of mediocre decisions.  May and Berrios give us something to build on.  Eventually Gonsalves and Jay will be moving in so I have to hope for midseason trades to clear the logjam, but that said, I think that we are wasting an arm having Berrios go back to AAA AGAIN.  He is fun, talented, and in need of good coaching.  Isn't there a Latino pitching coach out there that we can hire?

 

In the bullpen I will be most depressed if Craig Breslow is kept.  Move on.  I am fine with Tonkin being cut, but leave Duffey or O'Rourke.  

100% agree on Duffey and O'Rourke.  No sane reason to have Tonkin or Breslow on a ML 25-man roster.

[Thrylos]

 

I guess in short I want to see that the Twins FO commits to Berrios. And jerking him around and not treating him like a key to the team's success is a good way to try to turn Berrios into another Matt Garza (attitude wise). 

 

Why?  Berrios did not commit to stay this Spring in the Twins' camp and try to win a position.  Jerking him around?  He was horrible last season.  Berrios is the one who needs to prove himself and not the Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

 

What about Polanco leading off instead of Buxton? I'd bet on Polanco's on-base skills and strike zone control right now.

 

Yeah, this.  Polanco is so much more advanced as a hitter, there is no way Buxton should lead off while he hits 9th.  

[Mike Sixel]

Why? Berrios did not commit to stay this Spring in the Twins' camp and try to win a position. Jerking him around? He was horrible last season. Berrios is the one who needs to prove himself and not the Twins.

Are you going to bring up this in every thread?

[DocBauer]

If Giminez really could play a couple spots, and Garver could play 1B and has the better bat, could the Twins keep a 3rd catcher this season as the 13th player???

[DocBauer]

I think you nailed it pretty well Seth. I really hate not seeing Duffy on the team, in the pen. And I just can't see Hughes as a lock yet until we see his full velocity and control back. I can get Berrios at Rochester to begin the season due to a "crunch" of options and then coming up early when someone gets hurt, etc. But for the future success of the team I think we just have to see both Berrios and May in the rotation.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Why?  Berrios did not commit to stay this Spring in the Twins' camp and try to win a position.  Jerking him around?  He was horrible last season.  Berrios is the one who needs to prove himself and not the Twins.

 

While i would like to see Berrios make the opening day roster, I don't think he's earned anything. I think we throw the term "jerking him around" too often.

 

Berrios isn't at the point where he should be handed a job yet. I think he'll get there, and hopefully soon, but nothing about his 2016 should say that he should be given a job out of spring training. 

 

Thrylos... I had to respond because every once in awhile I do agree with you.

 

[Thrylos]

 

Are you going to bring up this in every thread?

 

Only the ones that are relevant, and this one is.   Choosing not to participate in a big chunk of your team's Spring Training has 25 man roster implications?  No?  Especially when posts ask the Twins to hand Berrios a job...

 

[Thrylos]

Back to the OP:  Still very early, but the only differences I have are:

 

Pitching:

 

Vogelsong making the team over Rogers (actually it is Breslow over Rogers) and Santiago to the pen as the second lefty with either Vogelsong or Haley making the 5th rotation spot.  Duffey over Chargois likely, as well.

 

Still have to see them all pitch, so this is on paper only.

 

 

Position players:

Gimenez getting the back up C job over Garver

 

I think that they will try to get several of the veterans they signed on the team.

[nater79a]

 

What about Polanco leading off instead of Buxton? I'd bet on Polanco's on-base skills and strike zone control right now.

 

I like that idea...Polanco leading off.  Buxton, long term, seems more like a slugging percentage guy and not an OBP guy,  I could see him settling more into a #3 hitter and not leadoff.  He's going to K a little too much to be a table setter so let him hit line drives and use his speed to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Rack up some RBI. Knock a few over the wall too. 

[BoofBonser]

Berrios needs innings in the major leagues.

I'll just repeat what everyone else is saying: It does no good to send him to AAA.

If we want to find out who he really is, why not just give him a full season up here and see what happens.