Article: Twins Blunder Polanco's Development

[Thrylos]

 

Really, Seth? I mean, I can come up with four management mistakes or outright blunders in the last few years involving centerfield, just one position, and if you want five for Ryan, you can go back just ten years to how he bungled Torii Hunter's departure when he was still an All Star.

 

And then he retired saying that he was behind the times.  Probably his truest statement ever

[TheLeviathan]

 

middle managers are a part of the succession process, not just the CEO

 

Joe Blow running the DQ in your neighborhood shouldn't be responsible for what the Dairy Queen CEO is supposed to do.  

 

Molitor should be focused on getting the major league team ready to play every day.  To win every day.  He shouldn't be remotely concerned about where AAA managers are playing guys.  He should pass off his thoughts to Ryan on players that are coming or going, but what is happening in the minors is Ryan's job to oversee.  Not his.  

Edited February 22, 2017 by TheLeviathan

[Seth Stohs]

 

?
So do you think Twins player development, drafting and self scouting is a strength of the team?

If so that would be an....interesting take

 

I don't know how to judge that without spending a ton of time. I think their player development has done a good job with hitters. Obviously they have struggled with pitchers. They have had several success, and they have had several "failures." Some methods work for some and the same method doesn't work for others. 

 

I don't know how to judge any of that. It's a huge success if an 8th rounder makes it to AA, right? How about a 32nd rounder spending 2-3 years in the big leagues as a utility infielder? That's a huge success.

 

My guess is any sort of analytics would not be very favorable to the Twins over the last 10 years or so. I've written a couple of articles saying that... but I think that the Twins have some scouting successes and several failures. I think player development has had some successes and some failures. 

 

I think they've had some successes and some failures in self-scouting. 

 

But more important, I think that we need to move on. Let's see the Falvey and Levine processes and give them a year or two to see the changes and differences. 

 

And, I would think that of the group of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and Berrios (all developed in the TWins system), at least a couple of them will take a step forward. 

 

Let's see how Chargois, Burdi, Duffey, May, Hildenberger, Reed, Melotakis, Jay, Gordon, etc. do. 

[USAFChief]

I don't know how to judge that without spending a ton of time. I think their player development has done a good job with hitters. Obviously they have struggled with pitchers. They have had several success, and they have had several "failures." Some methods work for some and the same method doesn't work for others. 

 

I don't know how to judge any of that. It's a huge success if an 8th rounder makes it to AA, right? How about a 32nd rounder spending 2-3 years in the big leagues as a utility infielder? That's a huge success.

 

My guess is any sort of analytics would not be very favorable to the Twins over the last 10 years or so. I've written a couple of articles saying that... but I think that the Twins have some scouting successes and several failures. I think player development has had some successes and some failures. 

 

I think they've had some successes and some failures in self-scouting. 

 

But more important, I think that we need to move on. Let's see the Falvey and Levine processes and give them a year or two to see the changes and differences. 

 

And, I would think that of the group of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and Berrios (all developed in the TWins system), at least a couple of them will take a step forward. 

 

Let's see how Chargois, Burdi, Duffey, May, Hildenberger, Reed, Melotakis, Jay, Gordon, etc. do.

 

Agree with much of this, but I think we need to put things in some perspective. Getting 2-3 years of a utility infielder, even from a 32nd round pick,is not a huge success. Its a success for that guy, but not the organization. A utility infielder does little to add wins to an organization, and what little value they have isn't hard or expensive to find.

 

You need your minor leagues to produce good, above average everyday players, and the occasional star or three.

 

This isn't about just getting players to the big leagues. Every team does that. Getting players who can win pennants is the goal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

To add to Chief's point, while it is unlikely for any specific 32nd rounder to become a MLBer, it isn't unlikely that you will see some marginal MLB contributors in those late rounds. Just like getting a base hit is unlikely in any specific at-bat, it doesn't make it a "success" when a MLBer gets 1 hit in 4 AB. It's more like the baseline.

 

The Twins these past 10 years or so have had plenty of these marginal baseline "successes" -- a 32nd round utility guy, a minor league deal turning into a competent reliever for a couple seasons, a Scott Diamond having a brief run of effectiveness, etc. But every team has those "successes." What makes a team good is how much/often they succeed beyond that baseline, and the Twins have been pretty deficient in that regard.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As for Polanco, I don't think the lost option or the lack of AAA SS reps last year really matter much. Will be interesting to see what they make of him as am asset, and if trying to maximize their return on Dozier leads them to squander Polanco (playing him out of position or benching him a lot). Will be interesting to see what they are really thinking about the SS position for 2017 too.

[D.C Twins]

 

Really, Seth? I mean, I can come up with four management mistakes or outright blunders in the last few years involving centerfield, just one position, and if you want five for Ryan, you can go back just ten years to how he bungled Torii Hunter's departure when he was still an All Star. Then you can throw in years of damaging pitchers by handling medical issues improperly, while often shaming the guy publicly. Sure, every team makes mistakes, and Ryan arguably had some successes, but the ratio for Ryan part II was among the worst. Sorry to beat the dead horse after he already left the barn.

 

Just to pile on....last year alone, I think that May, Meyers, and Sano were handled pretty poorly. And this was not outcome bias at TD. I remember many posters that were exacerbated real time (yes, I think that the OF even stunted his offense last year).

[tobi0040]

A lot of good points on this thread.

 

I am just glad this era is over.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Joe Blow running the DQ in your neighborhood shouldn't be responsible for what the Dairy Queen CEO is supposed to do.

 

Molitor should be focused on getting the major league team ready to play every day. To win every day. He shouldn't be remotely concerned about where AAA managers are playing guys. He should pass off his thoughts to Ryan on players that are coming or going, but what is happening in the minors is Ryan's job to oversee. Not his.

organizational health is not just Levine's job or Falvey's job, or at the time, Ryan's.

 

It is up to Molitor to help drive the ship. When Joe at the DQ down the street gets the feeling that his assistant store manager is getting the itch to go to Subway for the extra 25 cents per hour, it's up to Joe to ask the other DQ store managers around if they have any candidates with potential and to see if the other store manager would start feeding said high potential candidate the CEO prescribed intermediate duties to setup that candidate for future success.

 

That's not to say if isn't Ryan's fault. It's his primarily. Just to say that some of the onus falls on Molitor too/

Edited February 22, 2017 by Sconnie

[TheLeviathan]

 

That's not to say if isn't Ryan's fault. It's his primarily. Just to say that some of the onus falls on Molitor too/

 

Your analogy doesn't really fit.  Recruiting underlings is part of the job of the manager of a location.  What you're arguing Molitor should've done was know what the DQ manager 8 towns over was doing with his accounting ledger.  That's not his job to oversee.  And if he tries to, he's probably diverting time from what he's really supposed to be doing.  

 

Yes, he can weigh in on things from an organizational standpoint but once the season starts, his job isn't to worry about anything but the major league team.  

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

?
So do you think Twins player development, drafting and self scouting is a strength of the team?

If so that would be an....interesting take

I think it probably depends on what you think their jobs are. Klaw has been pretty complementary of the Twins scouting and development people, for instance and there is no doubt that the Twins success in the 2000s was in large part due to the development people. Because of the nature of the draft (and international signings) we usually have a 4-7 year drag time so changes made in 2012 might just being seen at the ML level and not recognized by fans and changes made in 2008 might be impacting the ML roster right now. My opinion is that the changes made by Steil have been very good on the development side. The drafts under Johnson were not as sound although they got better after Ryan put more oversight on him.

 

I would expect that Falvey and Levine, both of whom came from orgs that did a lot of building from within would have an understanding of that process that is better than "Stewart isn't striking anyone out, the development squad has failed us." And we've seen them make changes in regards to Johnson and left Steil (and others) in place.

[mlhouse]

The real malpractice the Twins have done with Jorge Polanco was that they left him in the minors in the first place.  The kid hit minor league pitching, they bring him up as a 20 year old and he hits.  Sure, small sample size but why send him back to the minors?  

 

The mistake the Twins have made these past 6 years is to believe that development cannot happen at the major league level.  

[glunn]

 

Polanco's not the only one. When a player turns into something out of the Twins system, it's typically one of two things: 1) A miracle (Dozier) 2) The guy was developmentally fool-proof (Mauer, Sano).

Cuddyer?  Hunter?

 

And is any player really developmentally fool-proof?

[glunn]

 

Your analogy doesn't really fit.  Recruiting underlings is part of the job of the manager of a location.  What you're arguing Molitor should've done was know what the DQ manager 8 towns over was doing with his accounting ledger.  That's not his job to oversee.  And if he tries to, he's probably diverting time from what he's really supposed to be doing.  

 

Yes, he can weigh in on things from an organizational standpoint but once the season starts, his job isn't to worry about anything but the major league team.  

Like most analogies, the DQ analogy is imperfect. The manager of a DQ would rarely if ever even speak with the CEO.

 

I would hope that player development decisions at upper levels are discussed with the manager.

 

We will never know what Molitor's role in this was.  Maybe he is culpable, maybe he is innocent and maybe the truth lies in between. But it seems to me that he should have been asked for his input.

[HitInAPinch]

Found this info on the Internet:   What percentage of minor league baseball players will ever reach the majors?

 

--High school senior players who go on to play NCAA men`s baseball: Less than three in 50, or 5.6 percent

 

-- NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team: Less than eleven in 100, or 10.5 percent.

 

 -- High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLB team: About one in 200, or 0.5 percent.

 -- Drafted baseball players almost always go to a minor league team. These teams abound; there are over 150 of them, compared to 30 in the majors.

The big leagues have 750 players, yet the 2004 draft alone took 1,500.

Hence some estimate that only one in 33 minor leaguers ever makes it to the pros. If that's correct, the chance of a high school player making the big leagues is one in 6,600, or 0.015 percent. That's roughly the chance of a thief guessing your PIN number on the first try.

So… we’re looking at a very minute chance — 0.015%.

 

Just putting a little perspective on things....

Edited February 22, 2017 by HitInAPinch

[The Wise One]

Polanco's shortcomings and short has nothing to do with him not playing short in AAA. It is not like he never played the position. It is not like it is so complex he would forget.  The only bungle may be that they did not trade him before other teams figured out he is not a  top shortstop.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Your analogy doesn't really fit. Recruiting underlings is part of the job of the manager of a location. What you're arguing Molitor should've done was know what the DQ manager 8 towns over was doing with his accounting ledger. That's not his job to oversee. And if he tries to, he's probably diverting time from what he's really supposed to be doing.

 

Yes, he can weigh in on things from an organizational standpoint but once the season starts, his job isn't to worry about anything but the major league team.

no one ever said when these things would occur, and the analogy was succession planning for personnel moves to roster spots. This isn't contract management it's people management. Agreed, people are an asset, but they need a different kind of manager than my 401k. That's why PM doesn't negotiate the contract, Levine does. Same in DQ, the store manager doesn't negotiate the hourly wage either. It's prescribed to them by the corporate office.

[TheLeviathan]

no one ever said when these things would occur, and the analogy was succession planning for personnel moves to roster spots. This isn't contract management it's people management. Agreed, people are an asset, but they need a different kind of manager than my 401k. That's why PM doesn't negotiate the contract, Levine does. Same in DQ, the store manager doesn't negotiate the hourly wage either. It's prescribed to them by the corporate office.

Molitor's job is to manage the major league team to wins. It isn't his job to monitor the minors. Do you want him weighing in on contract negotiations? The draft? Promotional work? Where does that line end?

[USAFChief]

Molitor's job is to manage the major league team to wins. It isn't his job to monitor the minors. Do you want him weighing in on contract negotiations? The draft? Promotional work? Where does that line end?

Clearly Molitor's job is maximizing production of his "division." (he is more akin to a divisional VP than a retail store manager like at your local DQ.)

 

Part of that job description would be doing everything he can to ensure he has the right skills in his workforce, and part of that would be letting his boss know where he has, and likely will have, deficiencies. I would think he could/should have had a conversation something like:

 

"Hey Ter...is there some reason Polanco isn't playing any short in Rochester? If Nuney is hurt or traded we're going to need him there, and looking at next year..."

[Squirrel]

Clearly Molitor's job is maximizing production of his "division." (he is more akin to a divisional VP than a retail store manager like at your local DQ.)

Part of that job description would be doing everything he can to ensure he has the right skills in his workforce, and part of that would be letting his boss know where he has, and likely will have, deficiencies. I would think he could/should have had a conversation something like:

"Hey Ter...is there some reason Polanco isn't playing any short in Rochester? If Nuney is hurt or traded we're going to need him there, and looking at next year..."

Exactly. As I've said I can't believe he wasn't involved in some conversation at some point. I don't think anyone is blaming Molitor solely for Polanco, because ultimately, it wasn't his decision. But I can't believe he wasn't in the loop somewhere, especially considering his previous role in the organization prior to being with the ML team. As a manager, I'm sure he has some sense of who's coming down the pipeline and would have some kind of opinion on that, especially, as I said, given his previous role in the organization and given that Polanco had had some time with the team prior to his final trip up in 2016.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Clearly Molitor's job is maximizing production of his "division." (he is more akin to a divisional VP than a retail store manager like at your local DQ.)

Part of that job description would be doing everything he can to ensure he has the right skills in his workforce, and part of that would be letting his boss know where he has, and likely will have, deficiencies. I would think he could/should have had a conversation something like:

"Hey Ter...is there some reason Polanco isn't playing any short in Rochester? If Nuney is hurt or traded we're going to need him there, and looking at next year..."

 

But that's not what is at issue here.  I'm sure we all think those conversations happened (or should have), the question is - why is he responsible that no action was taken?  Why is it his responsibility to be tracking AAA box scores to see where guys are being played?  Is he in charge of the AAA manager?  

 

His quote implies that he (and others) were mystified about what happened.  It's not his job to ensure what should happen.  He might have had that exact conversation and maybe even said "Terry....Polanco needs to be at SS in AAA"  But after that....it is 100% not his job to do anything else.  That's on Ryan.

 

This thread feels like a witch-hunt on Molitor.  Isn't Danny Santana enough?  Why do we have to bash hiim for things that aren't his job?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Molitor's job is to manage the major league team to wins. It isn't his job to monitor the minors. Do you want him weighing in on contract negotiations? The draft? Promotional work? Where does that line end?

The manager should have a firm grasp of the 40 man roster and be influential to the management of it, including influencing additions to it. If the manager and the GM are not in sync the talent available to the manager will not fit the tactics and decisions the manager wants to make.

 

It seems very clear to me with all of the strange bullpen decisions and odd defensive alignments and batting lineups, what Molitor wanted and what Molitor got, were very different.

 

So yes, I think the manager should reach beyond his borders to ensure he has the talent that he thinks he needs.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

But that's not what is at issue here.  I'm sure we all think those conversations happened (or should have), the question is - why is he responsible that no action was taken?  Why is it his responsibility to be tracking AAA box scores to see where guys are being played?  Is he in charge of the AAA manager?  

 

His quote implies that he (and others) were mystified about what happened.  It's not his job to ensure what should happen.  He might have had that exact conversation and maybe even said "Terry....Polanco needs to be at SS in AAA"  But after that....it is 100% not his job to do anything else.  That's on Ryan.

 

This thread feels like a witch-hunt on Molitor.  Isn't Danny Santana enough?  Why do we have to bash hiim for things that aren't his job?

this is a very good point. Implied in my argument is that Molitor should not be mystified by any development plans made with players who are on the 40 man roster. Polanco's development was ultimately on TR but Molitor should at least understand the plan and the rationale for doing so. Ultimately that was on TR as well, but Molitor has more power than given credit for.

 

This should not be a witch hunt on Molitor, but successful managers do more than just fill out lineup cards and call to the bullpen.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

this is a very good point. Implied in my argument is that Molitor should not be mystified by any development plans made with players who are on the 40 man roster. Polanco's development was ultimately on TR but Molitor should at least understand the plan and the rationale for doing so. Ultimately that was on TR as well, but Molitor has more power than given credit for.

 

This should not be a witch hunt on Molitor, but successful managers do more than just fill out lineup cards and call to the bullpen.

 

I agree, but you kind of make my point - ultimately all of these things are on Ryan.  We might not like that Molitor feels confused or mystified, but at the end of the day he can't make Ryan tell him what's going on or do Ryan's job for him.

 

This, to me, speaks to the idea that Ryan was dictating last year and Molitor was trying to make due.  I'd prefer Molly have a little more say in things as well, if he had maybe we avoid a number of roster blunders last year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

A lot of good points on this thread.

I am just glad this era is over.

the legacy lives on, for now 

[Doomtints]

Molitor is partly to blame. Polanco spent a hell of a lot of time riding the pine during his first few call ups. That's Molitor.

[Doomtints]

Also, I think this thread is just a lot of complaining. Consider this:

 

"Jeez. The Twins moved Sano to the OF without ever having practicing there. Terrible mismanagement!"

 

"Jeez. The Twins expected 2B to open and had Polanco get reps there so he would be ready to take over. Terrible mismanagement!"

 

What were the Twins supposed to do other than what they did when it comes to Polanco when it came to giving him reps at 2B in the minors?

 

I think the travesty with Polanco is that he is only now going to be a regular on the team. They wasted a year and half.  He has been ready and the team performance at SS had not been good enough.

Edited February 22, 2017 by Doomtints

[Riverbrian]

None of this is shocking. 

 

There was a lot of what I considered "not on the same page" stuff happening last year. 

 

I have no idea how decisions were or are made at 1 Twins way but i'm fairly comfortable in imagining that Molitor would be part of the dynamic. Everyone in the room is part of the dynamic and ultimately Terry Ryan is responsible for that staffing. 

 

When Paul says "some people" he may have been part of that "some people" group just because he wasn't able to influence the outcome or agreed with the assessment. 

 

There are many times in my career where I have accepted responsibility on the basis that I failed to convince others. "This is my fault because I wasn't able to convince you".  

 

Manager change is a change beyond a new guy in the dugout. He is a new dynamic in advocacy. 

 

In my opinion... the Twins for the past 5 years have struggled as a whole to plan for future potential needs at the MLB level. SS, DH/1B, 3B, the bullpen, the rotation and CF CF CF CF CF... I'm typing CF 5 times because the approach to CF has been shortsighted and awful and they never changed course. They just kept trying the same stuff over and over. 

 

It's on Ryan... I don't see the Polanco error as fatal but It's on Ryan... and Molitor has to accept some blame as well for either agreeing with the assessments or failing to convince others. 

 

I think that's fair. 

[DocBauer]

None of this is shocking.

 

There was a lot of what I considered "not on the same page" stuff happening last year.

 

I have no idea how decisions were or are made at 1 Twins way but i'm fairly comfortable in imagining that Molitor would be part of the dynamic. Everyone in the room is part of the dynamic and ultimately Terry Ryan is responsible for that staffing.

 

When Paul says "some people" he may have been part of that "some people" group just because he wasn't able to influence the outcome or agreed with the assessment.

 

There are many times in my career where I have accepted responsibility on the basis that I failed to convince others. "This is my fault because I wasn't able to convince you".

 

Manager change is a change beyond a new guy in the dugout. He is a new dynamic in advocacy.

 

In my opinion... the Twins for the past 5 years have struggled as a whole to plan for future potential needs at the MLB level. SS, DH/1B, 3B, the bullpen, the rotation and CF CF CF CF CF... I'm typing CF 5 times because the approach to CF has been shortsighted and awful and they never changed course. They just kept trying the same stuff over and over.

 

It's on Ryan... I don't see the Polanco error as fatal but It's on Ryan... and Molitor has to accept some blame as well for either agreeing with the assessments or failing to convince others.

 

I think that's fair.

I think you wrap it up pretty succinctly here. Ultimate blame is on TR. We aren't privy to various conversations that took place, maybe Molitor pointed the desk demanding certain things and was rebuffed time and again. But you would think he was have at least a minimum amount of input to say: "Hey, how's Polanco doing? I like that kid and we need a SS."

 

He may not have much control, and daily his work centers around the functions of the ML club as is, but you'd think he'd at least have some influence.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I agree, but you kind of make my point - ultimately all of these things are on Ryan. We might not like that Molitor feels confused or mystified, but at the end of the day he can't make Ryan tell him what's going on or do Ryan's job for him.

 

This, to me, speaks to the idea that Ryan was dictating last year and Molitor was trying to make due. I'd prefer Molly have a little more say in things as well, if he had maybe we avoid a number of roster blunders last year.

yeah, ultimately it all falls on Ryan, he was the General Manager and got fired, just like it all falls on Falvey now. That's just simplistic.

 

I still feel like Molitor needs to lead the major league organization and reach deeper into the upper levels of the minors for intel and influence of his sphere. He needs to be the driver of culture change for Falvey to the MLB operation and the inspiration for the minors. Being a baseball savant isn't enough. He needs to be an organizational savant too.

 

For his career's sake, he needs to be a tactical conduit of change in the strategy outlined by Falvey and Levine. Passivity will not get it done.

Edited February 23, 2017 by Sconnie