Article: TD Top Prospects #4: Nick Gordon

[Steve Lein]

Feels like he should be higher. There's perennial .300 bat ability in there and am not worried about him sticking at SS. He will play there.

[Taildragger8791]

 

That was not a comparison.  Direct or indirect.  I used Smith's career .666 OPS to support my argument that OPS does not matter for some players, esp. the ones with not much power, and OBP is a better way to judge those players.

 

I based it on his improvement as a hitter that culminated to a respectable .345 OBP in AA, which matter of fact, is higher than the Southern League average of .321 OBP, plus his .400+ OBP as a RHH

 

What supporting evidence are you using to support what claim?   Or are you just arguing against my earlier claim that Vielma at .345 OBP in AA is a better hitter than Gordon with .335 OBP in A+, without presenting any evidence?

 

I think the argument, at least for me, is that his OBP won't translate to the MLB level because he's going to get challenged in the zone to prove he can hit effectively and do a little damage. That could quickly become a sub-.300 OBP because nobody is going to walk him when the absolute worst thing he can do is flip a single over/through the infield. EDIT: If he hits for .300+ with pitchers challenging him then maybe he gets a little respect and keeps his OBP up, but he hasn't shown the ability to hit like that (like Revere did).

[Dantes929]

 

He is not a power hitter.  He will get on base at .345 clip.  OPS does not do him justice.  There is a certain shortstop with career .666 OPS who is a first ballot Hall of Famer... 

As pointed out above, .345 in AA does not necessarily translate to .345 in the majors.   Is Vielma as good as Ozzie Smith defensively?    I am  with you about questioning switch hitting.    Usually, they have a better split from one side and the best case scenario is that the splits would be the same as if they just stayed with their stronger side anyway.    There really aren't that many Eddie Murrays and Mickey Mantles walking around.     I questioned Hicks pursuing switch hitting almost from the get go.    

[Willihammer]

Is Vielma's D as good as everyone thinks? Or are people applying Nichols law of catcher defense to the shortstop?

 

Looked it up- Vielma has a .952 FP in 3000+ innings with a 4.70 RF/9.

Gordon: .960 FP in 2300 innings with a 4.60 RF/9

 

About a wash I'd say.

Edited February 21, 2017 by Willihammer

[Nick Nelson]

 

That was not a comparison.  Direct or indirect.  I used Smith's career .666 OPS to support my argument that OPS does not matter for some players, esp. the ones with not much power, and OBP is a better way to judge those players.

 

I based it on his improvement as a hitter that culminated to a respectable .345 OBP in AA, which matter of fact, is higher than the Southern League average of .321 OBP, plus his .400+ OBP as a RHH

 

What supporting evidence are you using to support what claim?   Or are you just arguing against my earlier claim that Vielma at .345 OBP in AA is a better hitter than Gordon with .335 OBP in A+, without presenting any evidence?

Using 90-game samples as your sole data without any context is not substantive analysis. Gordon is 18 months younger, has a superior OBP/OPS in the minors, and offers vastly more offensive potential in the eyes of any scout.

 

If you want to make the point that players can be valuable without hitting much that's fine but referencing someone who is widely considered the best defensive SS of all time isn't an effective way to illustrate it.   

[AWOLNATION_11]

Kid did hit .346 with an .862 OPS in the Arizona Fall League last year.   Maybe too short of sample-size to matter, but I feel like that is something to be optimistic about.

[jimmer]

 

 

How is this guy ranked #4 in our system? I wonder how much of it is the vaunted family he comes from overriding real observations? I personally don't know, don't get me wrong. Just thinking this is a worthy concern to bring up.

#4 in our system because our system is, well, underwhelming. I am surprised he isnt #1 in here cause most propsect listing seem to think he is our top guy. He likely is our best prospect, which is sad.

 

We have been drafting pretty high lately and the results have been underwhelming to say the least.

Edited February 21, 2017 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

 

 

Thanks for the right-up, Jeremy, but I'm left flummoxed by the #4 rating.

 

Yes, his dad half-brother and and were professional baseball players of some stature. Add to that he has a tremendous work ethic. Okay. But then the reality of what kind of a player he is is revealed.

 

"enough glove to stick at shortstop ... solid ... not flashy ... .952 fielding percentage."

 

"potential .300-hitter each and every year [THE SOLE STELLAR TRAIT?)

 

. . 19 steals ... caught 13 times." With poor success like this I would think he simply runs less often in the future. [i could be wrong, but all along we've heard that he isn't FAST].

 

..."walk-rate .... 4.7%." I just fell over Delmon Young's dead body - and he's not even dead!

 

How is this guy ranked #4 in our system? I wonder how much of it is the vaunted family he comes from overriding real observations? I personally don't know, don't get me wrong. Just thinking this is a worthy concern to bring up.

 

I think you underestimate the value of an across the board solid shortstop.

 

If Gordon is a .750 hitter with 25 steals and a slightly plus glove, he's a 4 WAR player.

 

Gordon has no standout skills and that's okay because he looks pretty good at everything he does. And when you add up "pretty good at everything", that has the potential to be a very good shortstop through his controlled seasons. Will he win accolades? No, probably not and that's okay, too. Good teams need complementary players who are league average regulars with an occasional plus season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Vielma hit .271/.345/.318  in AA,  while Gordon hit  .291/.335/.386 in High A. Vielma has less power but gets on base more often than Gordon.  Vielma's problem is swinging from the left side.  As a RHH last season he hit .338/.407/.416 in AA.   And the jump from A+ to AA with the stick is significant.  Let's see what Gordon will do in AA.  This is his first season with OPS > .700

 

Vielma "cannot hit" is a suburban legend, brought to you by the same people who said that Polanco cannot play shortstop and Molitor apologized for yesterday...

Whoa. A few things:

Vielma had a .626 OPS in Ft Myers (which you know is a pitcher's league) at age 21.

 

Gordon had a .721 OPS in Ft Myers at age 20.

 

Vielma has a career MiLB .636 OPS.

 

Gordon has a career MiLB .706 OPS while tracking through the system one year younger than Engelb.

 

I'm not writing off Vielma because "that glove" but suggesting that he's an equal hitter to Gordon simply is not true.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

If Gordon is a .750 hitter with 25 steals and a slightly plus glove, he's a 4 WAR player.

 

 

 

 

Not quite.  See: .288/.325/.432 (.757 OPS) with 40 steals and about +1 UZR is a 2.7 fWAR player (those were Eduardo Nunez's numbers in 2016, and I don't think that Gordon can get there, esp with the SB department, but he will be overall in the ballpark as far as comparables go)

 

So, would you pick Eduardo Nunez with the 5th overall pick, when Trea Turner and Aaron Nola were still on the board?

Edited February 21, 2017 by Thrylos

[gunnarthor]

 

Not quite.  See: .288/.325/.432 (.757 OPS) with 40 steals and about +1 UZR is a 2.7 fWAR player (those were Eduardo Nunez's numbers in 2016, and I don't think that Gordon can get there, esp with the SB department, but he will be overall in the ballpark as far as comparables go)

 

So, would you pick Eduardo Nunez with the 5th overall pick, when Trea Turner and Aaron Nola were still on the board?

I'd take Gordon over Nunez (and Vielma).  And even if we redid the draft, I'm not sure if we'd take him over Nola who finished the year with elbow problems or Turner who has been moved off of short at the ML level already.  

[Thrylos]

 

Whoa. A few things:

Vielma had a .626 OPS in Ft Myers (which you know is a pitcher's league) at age 21.

 

Gordon had a .721 OPS in Ft Myers at age 20.

 

Vielma has a career MiLB .636 OPS.

 

Gordon has a career MiLB .706 OPS while tracking through the system one year younger than Engelb.

 

I'm not writing off Vielma because "that glove" but suggesting that he's an equal hitter to Gordon simply is not true.

 

See above re: OPS and why it is not a good thing to compare them.  I prefer OBP for middle infielders who do not hit.   And it is not a prospect comparison, it is a ceiling comparison or who will serve the Twins better in the nearer future. 

 

Career numbers do not matter, because players click at some point.  The fact is that Vielma had a higher OBP (.345, and above his league average .321) against more advanced competition in AA.  Gordon has not yet reached AA.  His best OBP was .335, achieved against lesser competition in high A.    Whether Vielma or Gordon have higher ceiling with the bat is up for discussion, but Vielma can hit ok.  Previous post.  .750 OPS, 40 SB, above average glove at SS is about 2.5 fWAR.   And that .750 is about .030 points higher than Gordon's best, btw.  

 

To Vielma a .265/.321/.338 .659 OPS, 5 SB, elite glove SS has 3.2 fWAR (Andrelton Simmons's 2015 numbers).  I'd give a bit more to Vielma because of the SB (and Vielma's best OPS was higher than that).

 

So if Vielma hits .270/.330/.350 (very doable for him) and steals 40 bases (career best 35 vs Gordon's 25) , he will be a 3.5fWAR player, about 1 point more valuable than Gordon.

[Deduno Abides]

I'm still waiting for the first positive article about Gordon not to mention his family as if those are bonus points that should make people more confident about optimistic projections. I'm sure that when people are pitching to him, they're not thinking, "Oh boy, I better be extra careful with Gordon because his dad had a long career as a reliever."

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not quite. See: .288/.325/.432 (.757 OPS) with 40 steals and about +1 UZR is a 2.7 fWAR player (those were Eduardo Nunez's numbers in 2016, and I don't think that Gordon can get there, esp with the SB department, but he will be overall in the ballpark as far as comparables go)

 

So, would you pick Eduardo Nunez with the 5th overall pick, when Trea Turner and Aaron Nola were still on the board?

Dude, you really need to stop cherry-picking stats.

 

1. Nunez only played 141 games last season.

 

2. Only 55 of those games came at short.

[Taildragger8791]

 

I'm still waiting for the first positive article about Gordon not to mention his family as if those are bonus points that should make people more confident about optimistic projections. I'm sure that when people are pitching to him, they're not thinking, "Oh boy, I better be extra careful with Gordon because his dad had a long career as a reliever."

 

Coming from a family of professional athletes lends credence to a player's athletic pedigree. Lots of professional athletes come from families full of other athletes.

 

Whether or not the mental part of the game comes along with it is a crapshoot, but it certainly doesn't hurt that someone grew up around the game. Watching how professionals conduct themselves and train, absorbing information and the environment, etc. Again, it doesn't mean a guy can hit a curveball, but it takes some doubt out of the overall equation and builds confidence with respect to other important qualities of a player.

[diehardtwinsfan]

One thing I cannot help but notice is that Gordon maintained an .800+ OPS into August last year. I wonder how much of that final drop off had something to do with him simply being tired out.  Let's also not forget that the FSL is not a hitter friendly league.

 

Reading what others have said about him, his hit tool is pretty solid, and that is going with an average or better glove. A guy like this at #4 on the list is pretty good, given a floor of a major league regular and a ceiling still being a very good player. He's young for his league, and posted some pretty good numbers. This isn't a guy to be worried about... not yet at least.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd take Gordon over Nunez (and Vielma).  And even if we redid the draft, I'm not sure if we'd take him over Nola who finished the year with elbow problems or Turner who has been moved off of short at the ML level already.  

 

True, he's now a starting CF worth 3-5 WAR....terrible pick of Turner. Oh, and he's in the majors. So, can't tell if serious or not. Also, he could still be their SS, but they have one they like and no CF.

 

He put up 3.3 WAR in 73 games last year, if you think Turner is not a better pick, I don't know what to say, frankly.

[Nick Nelson]

 

So if Vielma hits .270/.330/.350 (very doable for him) and steals 40 bases (career best 35 vs Gordon's 25) , he will be a 3.5fWAR player, about 1 point more valuable than Gordon.

You should check and see how some other prospects with zero power in the minors had their OBPs translate to the majors. Ben Revere lost 60 points. Dee Gordon lost 35 points. 

 

The idea that we can simply expect Vielma to reproduce his career-high OBP as a big-leaguer, while also beating his precedent for steals and almost doubling his Isolated Power is inexplicably optimistic and baseless. 

[Willihammer]

Turner's moving back to SS no? With Eaton going to CF?

[Mike Sixel]

Turner's moving back to SS no? With Eaton going to CF?

We think so, good point. Either way, he put up 3.3 WAR in 73 games last year.... So hard to understand not liking that.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Based on what? The fact that he did so as a 22-year-old at AA? You can't make these kinds of claims without any supporting evidence and expect them to be taken seriously, especially when you follow it with comparisons to Ozzie Smith. 

You expect Gordon to grow muscles

but you expect nothing from Vielma.

That's what I'm reading.

Could be otherwise, possibly.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

You expect Gordon to grow muscles

but you expect nothing from Vielma.

That's what I'm reading.

Could be otherwise, possibly.

If you go by their physical frames, Vielma doesn't have the body to "grow muscles", he's a lithe, narrow shouldered, small waisted kid.  Nick at least has room to add additional muscle (and if you've ever seen Nick's dad Tom you know exactly what kind of upper half I'm talking about) to his upper half but neither is a ARod/Machado sized 21yo 

[Nick Nelson]

 

You expect Gordon to grow muscles

but you expect nothing from Vielma.

That's what I'm reading.

Could be otherwise, possibly.

Well my issue is that Thrylos was projecting all this improvement for one and not the other, but yes, I think it's much more realistic to expect significant strength gains for Gordon. Bob mentions the tremendous athleticism genetics, and NG has also shown a record of progressively developing power with his IsoP improving every year. This hasn't been the case for Vielma, who has stagnated in the department and managed only 11 XBH in 90 games last year.

[DocBauer]

I've said this before some time ago, but I wasn't sold on Gordon initially. Coming in to the draft, his numbers on the 20-80 scout scale were all around 45-55 if I remember correctly. (Could have been a 40 and/or a 60 mixed in there) But I have really come around on him the past year or so.

 

His work ethic seems excellent. In interviews, he seems intelligent, direct and business like. (Also polite). I love the kind of guys he works with in the offseason, showing further evidence of his willingness to work and soak up knowledge. With his build and youth and yes, even lineage, I could easily see him muscling up some more.

 

I am begining to think/feel more and more that we are talking about a solid defensive player who will hit well, have a solid OB%, and be a real threat for 30+ doubles and double digit Homer's and stolen bases every season.

[D.C Twins]

I enjoy the statistical banter (The research that goes into both sides is interesting).

 

I do think that we can all agree that it is refreshing to actually have multiple SS prospects in the farm system to debate about..... its been awhile!

[bird]

 

I enjoy the statistical banter (The research that goes into both sides is interesting).

 

I do think that we can all agree that it is refreshing to actually have multiple SS prospects in the farm system to debate about..... its been awhile!

 

I'm with you on both points. Making questionable statistical comparisons is the common cold of TD. It's contagious as hell, and if we're here long enough, we're going to get the bug. But it's fun stuff. However, I'm very confident no one who's seen both Gordon and Vielma in action, and especially those who have coached them both, would draw a close comparison regarding their upside as MLB hitters.

 

Thrylos wants us to believe that the Twins have perpetuated this "suburban legend" that Vielma is a bad hitter. I mean, why would they do that? No one from the Twins, at any level, has ever even hinted that this is the case, we can be sure of that. But I hope he's right that Vielma has offensive promise, all the statistical gibberish notwithstanding. And yet, it's nice to have Javier, Gordon, Polanco, and the new free agent from Milwaukee at various stages of readiness, all of whom are probably better bets than Vielma, as is a rebounding Escobar.

[jimmer]

 

He is not a power hitter.  He will get on base at .345 clip.  OPS does not do him justice.  There is a certain shortstop with career .666 OPS who is a first ballot Hall of Famer... 

Ozzie is the best defensive shortstop of all time and is 6th all time in bWAR for shortstops at 76.5.

[gunnarthor]

 

True, he's now a starting CF worth 3-5 WAR....terrible pick of Turner. Oh, and he's in the majors. So, can't tell if serious or not. Also, he could still be their SS, but they have one they like and no CF.

 

He put up 3.3 WAR in 73 games last year, if you think Turner is not a better pick, I don't know what to say, frankly.

He had a nice season and he was a high ranked prospect but he's looked bad in his very limited ML appearances in the IF. We'll see if he can stick at short but I don't think he can - at draft time some scouts said he was a second baseman at this level. And his .388 babip and 4% walk rate probably suggest a bit of coming back to earth. And as we've seen with the Polanco discussion, moving a guy off of shortstop kills his future potential there.

 

But the real problem is comparing a HS pick to college picks less than three years after the draft. Turner was the better prospect - so far - but the distance isn't so far between them as to end discussion. If you thought Gordon was the right pick on draft day there's really no reason to have buyer's remorse yet.

[markos]

 

He had a nice season and he was a high ranked prospect but he's looked bad in his very limited ML appearances in the IF. We'll see if he can stick at short but I don't think he can - at draft time some scouts said he was a second baseman at this level. And his .388 babip and 4% walk rate probably suggest a bit of coming back to earth. And as we've seen with the Polanco discussion, moving a guy off of shortstop kills his future potential there.

 

But the real problem is comparing a HS pick to college picks less than three years after the draft. Turner was the better prospect - so far - but the distance isn't so far between them as to end discussion. If you thought Gordon was the right pick on draft day there's really no reason to have buyer's remorse yet.

Another warning sign with Turner is that he had a crazy .ISO spike (.225!), and the statcast data showed that he was more productive on flyballs than his launch angles and exit velocity would predict. There is some speculation that teams expected him to be more of a slap-hitter and positioned their outfielders too shallow. Regardless, the Nats have definitely put all their eggs in the Turner-at-shortstop basket, at least for this season. They brought in Eaton and traded away Espinosa, and their backup SS is Stephen Drew.

[Trov]

I want to know why the article did not even mention his AFL time?  I believe many of the national rankings are based on those numbers.  He has been a streaky player in his career so those may just be SSS, but why would the article not even mention that he played in the AFL and touch on the great numbers that he had there?