Article: TD Top Prospects: #6 Wander Javier

[Taildragger8791]

 

Do you remember when Buxton was considered the number 1 prospect for the Twins  months after he was drafted?  Nothing unusual at all.  

 

As a matter of fact, I suspect that Kirilloff, who has less potential than Javier and the same experience as a pro, will be ranked higher than Javier.  And nobody will blink, because he was "a first round draft pick".  Same way that nobody blinked about Buxton's ranking back then.

 

I considered that. The way I saw it is that both Buxton and Kirilloff played 48 and 55 games in the rookie leagues, respectively, with Buxton advancing to the Appy league after a couple dozen games and Kirilloff starting there. Both showed well enough as 18 year olds in advanced rookie leagues to go straight to low A in their first full season. So those rankings had more to go on in both cases. It's probably true too that, fair or not, top 10-15 picks get a little more pedigree credit than international players due to how much more we know about them at the time of acquisition (older in age, more game tape, typically played against better competition, more scouting history, etc).

Edited February 17, 2017 by Taildragger8791

[VikingGuy]

 

Non-issue. If Javier is truly blocked by Gordon when he reaches the cusp of the majors in, say, 2021, he could make a fantastic trade chip if the Twins need to get an Ace (kind of like what the Cubs did with Torres). And if the Twins aren't competitive for whatever reason, then Gordon would be a valuable trade chip to speed up a rebuild. There is very little, if any, downside.

Never downside to having organizational depth

[Seth Stohs]

 

Reading "A+/AA" there made my heart skip a beat -- thought I had missed some kind of meteoric Harper/Urias rise for Javier last year!

 

Alas, just a typo -- he actually played in the Dominican Summer League.

 

Good catch... I've updated it... my bad!

[Han Joelo]

 Three-Lohs, 

 

I agree with your above comments re: Kiriloff.  I'm a prospect rube, but my equation goes something like this:

 

Potential Upside x (Likelihood) of reaching Potential Upside = Prospect Rank

 

From my very amateurish perpsective, Kiriloff has lower upside but higher likelihood, and Javier is the inverse.  For me, for some totally unsubstantiated reason, I have Kiriloff higher.  I think he is very likely to make good on his tools; hence I rate him higher.  But I'm really just guessing/hoping when it comes to prospects.

 

 

[mlhouse]

Sorry, if you look at the other Javier video, not just the batting cage one, his swing is completely messed up.  While he has very good bad speed, his balance through his swing is very poor.  In actual game pitching his contact was mimimal, ticking pitches into the ground, and he lunged without power to make any contact.   The lunging means that he is going to have a difficult time against even low level minor league breaking pitches because his "swing commitment" happens very early in his approach. He is going to weakly swing at a lot of breaking balls at least early in his career.

 

Unfortunately the Twins minor league staff is going to have to completely tear apart his swing.  They need to balance his intitial weight better and get him to keep more of his weight back at contact.  If he maintains that lunging approach with all the foot movement he does not have a chance of being a major league player.

[Thrylos]

 

 In actual game pitching his contact was mimimal, ticking pitches into the ground, and he lunged without power to make any contact. 

 

His .308/.400/.654 slash line against actual game pitching begs to differ.  .346 isoP is "without power"?

 

Mercy...

[mlhouse]

 

His .308/.400/.654 slash line against actual game pitching begs to differ.  .346 isoP is "without power"?

 

Mercy...

 

 

Over 30 pa in the DSL......

 

Watch this video. His contact is poor.  His power is poor.  I think if a pitcher is going to make a mistake pitch into his wheelhouse and he times it then with these batting mechanics he might make decent contact.  The problem is, even in the Rookie League he is going to fact pitchers that do not make those mistakes except in rare occurances.  I stand by my position, unless the Twins successfully change his hitting mechanics he has no chance of being a major league player and he would not have much success past A- ball.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

That video is two years old.  

[Thrylos]

 

Over 30 pa in the DSL......

 

Watch this video. His contact is poor.  His power is poor.  I think if a pitcher is going to make a mistake pitch into his wheelhouse and he times it then with these batting mechanics he might make decent contact.  The problem is, even in the Rookie League he is going to fact pitchers that do not make those mistakes except in rare occurances.  I stand by my position, unless the Twins successfully change his hitting mechanics he has no chance of being a major league player and he would not have much success past A- ball.

 

 

 

They did.  That video was before he was signed.  And yes I take 30 PA of rookie ball over the collage of 30 older PAs in batting practice and miscellaneous amateur games in that video

Edited February 17, 2017 by Thrylos

[Taildragger8791]

 

They did.  That video was before he was signed.  And yes I take 30 PA of rookie ball over the collage of 30 older PAs in batting practice and miscellaneous amateur games in that video

 

From everything I've read the DSL is below even GCL in competition level. I don't think you can draw any conclusions one way or the other from stats on 30 plate appearances there, that's such an insanely short sample size with no context for who he was doing it against. It suggests he was talented relative to the competition, which is good, but that's about it. We'll just have to wait for him to get into the GCL this year to see where his swing development is at.

[bird]

Did they go over slot technically but not in spirit? Who cares? And I don't care if you believe they should have blown through the allotment and signed more prospects. I don't care if you think they would've signed Javier for $5M had their allotment been $4.85M. Or that they should've shoved more money in his agent's briefcase and gone way over slot on "principal".

 

All I know is they had enough conviction about this kid to take the huge risk of limiting themselves to just him. That speaks volumes, does it not?

 

Regardless of what perception you've formed in your mind about the quality of the Twin's evaluators, you need only look as far as Sano or Kepler to see that they've bet fairly big before on a few rare occasions and they don't regret it. This kid is an exciting prospect to have in the system if for no other reason (so far) than the enormity of the bet and the things scouts are saying about his tools ( although, taking tobi's cue, if I had a nickel for every prospect described as a five-tool prospect...)

Edited February 17, 2017 by birdwatcher

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, betting their entire slot on one player is a big time bet. I don't argue that at all.

[Deduno Abides]

His swing looks better than Buxton's at that age (Buxton looked like he dropped the soap in the sink and had to reach down to pick it up), but still not great. Why do so many players now drop their back elbow? For Javier, it almost looks like tucks it into his body. For comparison, see an Arod home run video on YouTube - he keeps his back elbow high until he explodes into the pitch.

 

 

I don't agree with the logic that because cheap people spent a lot of money on him, then he's got to be good. That's essentially the definition of pedigree, which might be an okay dog food, but should be used in baseball only when trying to convince another team to take your guy in a trade. Spending a lot of money only means that a lot of money was spent. For comparison in another sport, look at the New England Patriots, who seem to succeed with a lot of cast-offs and no names, then trade them when these players start getting bigger reputations.

[DocBauer]

Hard to rank him this high, IMO, simply due to age and limited DSL appearances. But he does fascinate and capture attention for his skill set and scouting reports. He is definitely one of the most intriguing prospects in the entire system.

 

Overall, there are a couple of position player prospects in the upper levels I will be watching, along with a plethora of pitching prospects. But I think it's fair to say the real interest, fun and excitement will be watching the lower affiliates this season.

[D.C Twins]

Seth--- thanks for adding video to the post. This is a nice (convenient) feature for those of us who have not seen the prospects play before.

 

I think we can all agree that the bat speed is pretty solid and that is hard to teach....

[mlhouse]

 

They did.  That video was before he was signed.  And yes I take 30 PA of rookie ball over the collage of 30 older PAs in batting practice and miscellaneous amateur games in that video

 

But you aren't taking 30 PA of rookie ball.  First, you are taking the stats of the DSL, not the Gulf Coast or Appalachian Leagues.

 

Second, you aren't taking the "30 PAs", you are taking the overall statistics of 30 plate appearances.  

 

Third, the video in your post showing Javier in the batting cage, which would be recent,  demonstrates the same batting mechanics he is showing in the batting cage in the video I posted.  

 

In the batting cage he makes pretty good contact because there isn't changes in velocity or plane. He can time his movements.  But put him in a real game without the ball coming at the same speed and  position, he is way off balance.  I am sure that at lower levels, like the DSL, he probably can have some success with these hitting mechanics because he has tremendous bat speed.  If the pitcher makes a mistake or he guesses right, he will club the ball. 

 

But if he continues this approach he is going to struggle even in the GCL and will consistently have very poor ABs.  Unfortunately, these are not minor tweaks. His stance, his initial hand and elbow positions, the leg kick and weight transfer all need to be changed if he is going to be successful at higher and higher levels of ball.   Some prospects can do it, some prospects cannot.  

 

I think that he has some natural skills that could lend themselves to making these adjustments.  He has the bat speed and natural swing power.  Also, he is an above average fielder.  If he adjusts to coaching and gets better control of the strike zone, I think he is a prospect.

[dgwills]

I'm fine with this ranking. Just cashing that 4 million dollar check puts him in the top ten until he proves he doesn't belong there. Hell, Kohl Stewart was ranked 8th. Maybe it would be better if every player had to earn their position equally, but that's not how the world works.

[Rhino and Compass]

What is the likelihood that he even sticks at short? Doesn't every position player start at short? 

[TheLeviathan]

This is a guy I'll be making a concerted effort to track this year.  I hope this investment really pays off.

[Seth Stohs]

Javier's Twins Prospect Rankings:

 

Twins Daily - 6

Seth - 8

Nick - 6

Jeremy - 7

Cody - 7

Baseball America - 13

Baseball Prospectus - 6

John Sickels - 9

MLB Pipeline - 12

Keith Law - NR