Article: TD Top Prospects: #7 Adalberto Mejia

[DocBauer]

I'd say that Mejia should probably be a bit ahead of Santiago as far as the pecking order for LHSP goes.  20.4 K-BB% in Rochester and 18.6 K-BB% in the PCL are pretty impressive numbers (and numbers that Santiago never hit in his career at any level.)   And his ceiling is not that much lower than Gonsalves's at this point.  Might not realize it by looking at their careers but Mejia is just one year older than Gonsalves.

 

Agree with you in theory here. And I hate to state the obvious...but I will, lol. It's not the money, it's the veteran experience. I agree Mejia seems to have more upside. And I know this is a rebuilding team needing to look at their young talent. But while not a stud, Santiago has proven to be a solid, decent, serviceable ML SP. He was good for the Angels last season, crappie when he came to the Twins, but then finished strong. Meanwhile, Mejia is still young, has, I believe, only about a half season of AAA under his belt. So I can see Santiago higher on the pecking order for now, with Mejia getting the call during the season, and Santiago possibly traded mid season.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

For some reason left handers seem to be able to pull this off. David Wells, CC Sabatthia, Carlos Silva, Eddie Guardado.

 

Also, for some reason velocity tends to play up for lefties.

I didn't realize Carlos Silva was amphibious...I mean ambidextrous... I mean left handed.

[nicksaviking]

I didn't realize Carlos Silva was amphibious...I mean ambidextrous... I mean left handed.

Huh, looks like my memory is going. I guess he just had the build and the repertoire of a crafty lefty.

[DocBauer]

I like Jay and Gonsalves better, but what I really don't like is the logjam in MLB that needs to be cleared.  Jay, Gonsalves, Berrios, May, Mejia would be a nice rotation to see at the end of the year.  It's time to quit investing in old and average (or worse) and start getting these young arms ready to compete.  In addition, teach Duffey a third pitch, like coaches are supposed to do.  I want coaches to do their job and get us set up for a good number of years to be competitive.  The bats are lining up, lets get the arms ready too and if we suffer some this year at least we have the potential for next year and beyond.  What is Vogelson, Santana, Santiago going to do for us in 2018 and beyond?

 

I like your post. And I agree with it for the most part, but also have to disagree a bit. I agree there is a bit of a logjam for the rotation. Not including fringe guys like Vogelsong or a sudden, unexpected promotion of a minor leaguer, a healthy Hughes, (at some point), Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Haley, May, Duffey and Berrios give 8 legitimate SP options. So you are correct there is a bit of a logjam, and I'm actually glad we didn't invest in any additional FA options. But we are uncertain on Hughes, for now. Berrios is still very young and has options if it's decided to go another right to begin the season, and a couple of these guys could also see themselves in the pen.

 

Which brings up the second point. I absolutely agree that an end of the season rotation of Jay, Berrios, May, Gonsalves and Mejia would be excellent and exciting. And I see a lot of possibilities of both Santana and Santiago being moved at some point to contending teams needing additional pitching help. It would make sense not only to clear dollars and maybe get a decent prospect or two, but to make room for at least one prospect, and create a better roster opening in 2018 for a prospect, major trade acquisition or FA signing.

 

But the counterpoint would be:

 

1] Hughes is untraceable at this point. We're he to come back to form..at some point at least...he could be more valuable to keep.

 

2] Almost ditto for Gibson, though less of a post-injury concern. But again, healthy, back to his 2015 form, perhaps even better, while trade able, he could also be more valuable to keep. Especially considering its a little hard to simply graduate multiple pitching prospects, with any success, all at once.

 

3] While Jay offers a TON of potential...and I simply don't understand those that are down on him so soon...he has only a single full milb season under his belt. He is still developing a feel for being a starter and building up endurance. I think he's a full season away, at least, and I'm OK with that.

 

I expect, and hope, that by the end of the season, we are looking at a rotation of Hughes, Gibson, May, Berrios and Mejia with an appearance for Gonsalves. Now ask me how excited I am with those 6 in the fold for 2018, with more on the way, and the possibility of a major trade or FA signing?

[Otto von Ballpark]

That bugged me too until I learned that it was confirmed that Mejia reached his innings limit.

He could have been called up earlier, he was already on the 40-man roster. Milone, Dean, and Albers all started MLB games for us in August while Mejia was relegated to starting in AAA.

[D.C Twins]

 

I did a little research:

 

 

Rankings............ Mejia ...............Garver

Nick  ......................7 .................... 12

Seth  .....................12 ................... 11

Jeremy ..................8 .....................10

Cody .....................8 ..................... 13

 

BB Am ...................6 ......................17

BB Pro .................. 8 .................... No Mention

Min Lg Ball ............ 7 ......................15

MLB Pipeline ..........9 ......................21

 

 

Mejia was a great get for Nunez, in my opinion... he just looks a little Mjaresque to me... not that I'm one to speak... 

 

[D.C Twins]

Thanks for the above Seth....It certainly looks like a consensus

[D.C Twins]

 

Baseball America had him as the No. 5 prospect in the Giants system at midseason last year. I don't think you should be disappointed by this.

 

I get that people want the huge prospect upside, but as lefty with good control and the ability to miss some bats, Mejia is a very safe bet to contribute positively in some form. And based on reports I've heard about his improving slider, I think his ceiling is a tad higher than John suggests. But (as you can see from Seth's breakdown of individual rankings above) I'm higher on this one than most.

 

[D.C Twins]

Point well taken. I hope he will be pitching to Garver in the MLB for years to come

[ThejacKmp]

 

I don't know.  We've seen a lot of "#4 starters" come through Minnesota lately who offered little or no trade value.  Milone is a good example, a guy with team control and relatively low salary.  Useful at times, contributing league-average performances at the back of a rotation, but never had much value in trade.  Some veteran arms that might fit that performance profile too: Nolasco (see what he was traded for in 2013), Pelfrey, Santiago, etc.

 

Obviously if Mejia does well, he'll be useful and he'll have some value.  But I'd stop well short of projecting it as "enormous" or "considerable" right now.

 

I think the difference is that Mejia is 23 (and will be this entire year) and cost controlled for years to come (including multiple years at the rookie minimum) while guys like Milone, Nolasco, Pelfrey and Santiago were more expensive with less room to develop (and perhaps closer to #5 than #4). There's a big difference between a guy you can slot in at the back of the rotation and don't have to pay for several years and a guy earning $14 million a year (or a guy with a $5-$10 million arbitration award coming).

 

Enormous may be too much but considerable seems fair. We're all so starved for top-of-the-rotation pitching that we're not appreciating the value of a solid, cost-controlled back of the rotation arm.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Dear All,

 

Take heart. At one point in time, these were our top prospects:

 

www.minorleagueball.com/2007/11/13/16825/333 (edit, link doesn't want to work so, here was John Sickels thoughts in 2008):

 

Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade B+
Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Grade B
Ben Revere, OF, Grade B
Eduardo Morlan, RHP, Grade B
Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade B
Trevor Plouffe, SS, Grade B-
Brian Duensing, LHP, Grade B-
Oswaldo Sosa, RHP, Grade B-
Jose Mijares, LHP, Grade C+
Mike McCardell, RHP, Grade C+
Chris Parmelee, OF, Grade C+ (disappointing in '07 but young)
Danny Valencia, 3B, Grade C+
Ryan Mullins, LHP, Grade C+
Jay Rainville, RHP, Grade C+
Deibinson Romero, 3B, Grade C+
Alex Burnett, RHP, Grade C+
David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+
Nick Blackburn, RHP, Grade C+
Erik Lis, OF-1B, Grade C+
Zach Ward, RHP, Grade C

 

and now we see why it is we've been so bad of late.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't know.  We've seen a lot of "#4 starters" come through Minnesota lately who offered little or no trade value.  Milone is a good example, a guy with team control and relatively low salary.  Useful at times, contributing league-average performances at the back of a rotation, but never had much value in trade.  Some veteran arms that might fit that performance profile too: Nolasco (see what he was traded for in 2013), Pelfrey, Santiago, etc.

 

Obviously if Mejia does well, he'll be useful and he'll have some value.  But I'd stop well short of projecting it as "enormous" or "considerable" right now.

 

There's different kinds of 4th starters. Milone has a lot more risk given his complete inability to miss bats.  Mejia has at least shown the ability to do so (so far).  Even if the end game is a 4th starter, there's a lot less risk to a guy like Mejia if he's getting 7k/9 with a decent BB rate. That type  of pitcher can be flipped for something decent at the deadline.