Article: 2017 Minnesota Twins Roster Projections - The Relief Pitchers

[Seth Stohs]

Over the last two weeks, we’ve been making some roster projections for the teams from the Twins down to extended spring training. We predicted the starting pitchers earlier this week. Today we tackle the bullpen arms. Of course, there will be some crossover, especially in the lower levels.

 

As always, the Twins brought in several additional pitchers on minor league contracts. Some will compete for a big league job. Some have opt-outs. Some are competing for AAA jobs, and others are competing to keep their careers going. There are few relievers who are absolutely guaranteed to be in the bullpen on Opening Day (pending injury), so there are a lot of questions. The same is true throughout the system, so let’s take a look at some of the names you’ll be hearing over the next six weeks.If you missed any of the other parts in this series, you can find them here: The Catchers, The Outfielders, The Middle Infielders, The Corner Infielders, and The Starting Pitchers.

 

Minnesota Twins

RHP - Brandon Kintzler (32), JT Chargois (26), Ryan Pressly (28), Matt Belisle (36), Tyler Duffey (26), Trevor May (27), Justin Haley (25), Ryan Vogelsong (39), Michael Tonkin (27)

LHP - Taylor Rogers (26), Ryan O’Rourke (28), Craig Breslow (36), Glen Perkins (33-DL)

 

The Givens: All right, let’s try to clear this up, if even just a little. These pitchers are ‘Givens’ to make the Opening Day roster, assuming health. Brandon Kintzler will likely start the season as the closer. Maybe he’s not the prototype for a big league closer, but he survived (and maybe even thrived?) in the role in the second half. Matt Belisle signed recently and is also a given to fill a role in the Twins bullpen. Ryan Pressly is a given. He was pretty solid in the 8th inning last year until he got overused. The other given is lefty Taylor Rogers who had a very solid rookie season last year. In my mind, JT Chargois should be a given. I don’t think that he necessarily is, but he needs to be in the big leagues.

 

To Start Or Relieve: Tyler Duffey and Trevor May head to spring training with the same set of circumstances. Both have started in the past, and both have spent a lot of time in the big leagues. Duffey has started. May has primarily been in the bullpen the last couple of seasons. Both could be in the rotation. Both should probably be in the big leagues. However, each has an option remaining which could be used if the new regime thinks that they could develop into solid starters by spending any time in the bullpen.

 

To Start Or Relieve (Part 2): The Twins have a few more players who could start or relieve, though the odds of starting are lower. Justin Haley was the Twins Rule 5 pick. As you know, that means that he has to stick on the Twins 25-man roster all season or be offered back to the Red Sox (or kept via a trade). Veteran Ryan Vogelsong was signed to a minor league deal. The 39-year-old could fit into the fifth starter competition or, like Haley, he could fill a long-relief type of role.

 

The Lefties: There should be some good competition for the second lefty in the bullpen, alongside Taylor Rogers. If Glen Perkins is healthy and able, he will be in the bullpen, a given. More likely, he’ll start the season on the disabled list or rehabbing. Ryan O’Rourke is the best lefty in the organization against left-handed batters. If used in that role, he has a ton of value. However, depending on how well the starters pitch in 2017, the team may decide to go with someone else. Buddy Boshers signed out of the indy leagues last offseason and pitched well through 2016. Mason Melotakis will be ready at some point in 2017. It’s also possible that due to numbers the team could go with just one left-hander.

 

 

Rochester Red Wings

RHP - Jake Reed (24), Alex Wimmers (28), Trevor Hildenberger (26), Alan Busenitz (26), DJ Baxendale (26), Jim Miller (34)

LHP - Buddy Boshers (28), Mason Melotakis (25)

 

There are some guys coming through the system that we should see in 2017 (as we said in 2016). It will be interesting to see which guys come up, and in what order. Of the eight names mentioned here, only Boshers and Melotakis are currently on the 40-man roster, and they both have a legitimate chance to make the big league roster. Melotakis is at about the same point in his post-Tommy John surgery that JT Chargois was last year.

 

Wimmers’ road to the big leagues was long and winding, but he got there last August and pitched pretty well the final month of the season. He came off the 40-man roster, but he signed back with the team quite quickly. Jim Miller has big league time with the Orioles, Rockies, A’s and Yankees going back to 2008. The 35-year-old signed a minor league deal with the Twins recently.

 

DJ Baxendale could get another opportunity to start, but he pitched very well out of the bullpen once he was promoted to Rochester. It’s a role that fits his stuff well. Alan Busenitz came to the Twins last August 1st in the trade that sent Alex Meyer and Ricky Nolasco to the Angels. Busenitz isn’t a big guy, but he has the ability to reach 100 mph at times.

 

Jake Reed and Trevor Hildenberger are the two that we’ll likely be hearing a lot about early in the season. They are two guys who could be ready at any time to help in the big leagues. Both were drafted in 2014, Reed in the fifth round and Hildenberger in the 22nd round. Hildenberger was the Twins Daily Relief PItcher of the Year in both 2015 and 2016.

 

Chattanooga Lookouts

RHP - Nick Burdi(23), Raul Fernandez (26), John Curtiss (23), Ryan Eades (25), Brandon Peterson (25), Luke Bard (26), Alex Muren (25), Todd Van Steensel (26), Matt Tracy (28), Zack Jones (26 - DL)

LHP - Nik Turley (27), Cam Booser (24)

 

2016 was a very frustrating season for Nick Burdi. If healthy, he will likely return to the Lookouts to start over in 2017. Also if healthy, he has a good chance to debut in 2017. Speaking of healthy returns, Alex Muren missed the 2016 season after having thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Zack Jones unfortunately will miss the 2017 season (or at least a large part of it) after shoulder surgery.

 

Matt Tracy signed as a free agent. He pitched in one game for the Yankees in 2015. Raul Fernandez re-signed with the Twins this year and got an invitation to big league camp. He split 2016 between Ft. Myers and Chattanooga. The same can be said of Brandon Peterson, the Minnesotan, who has been one of the best relievers in the Twins system since he was drafted in 2013. Luke Bard spent some time with the Lookouts last year as well. His fastball reaches 97 mph, so with some improved control he could move up as well. Todd Van Steensel finally got called up to AA at the end of the 2016 season. He will be pitching for Team Australia in the upcoming WBC.

 

Ryan Eades pitched for the Lookouts last year. Halfway through the season he moved into the bullpen. While he could still start, his stuff may play out well for him in the 'pen. John Curtiss suffered through a couple of injuries in 2015. He began 2016 in Cedar Rapids, but after dominating for a month, he moved up to Ft. Myers. He pitched well in the Arizona Fall League as well.

 

Ft. Myers Miracle

RHP - Nick Anderson (26), Williams Ramirez (24), Michael Cederoth (24), Thomas Hackimer (22), Confesor Lara (26), Max Cordy (23), Zach Tillery (24), Logan Lombana (22)

LHP - Michael Theofanopoulos (24), Anthony McIver (24), Sam Clay(23)

 

Nick Anderson signed late in the 2015 season out of the independent leagues. The Brainerd area native has pitched very well since signing and came on strong late in 2016 with the Miracle. Thomas Hackimer was a closer at St. John’s. After signing, he spent the remainder of last season with the Kernels. He should make the move up to Ft. Myers. Michael Cederoth stayed healthy in Cedar Rapids and is now ready to move up. Williams Ramirez came on last year with the Kernels and has the ability to throw very hard with a good slider. Max Cordy throws 95 as well, and he did well after moving up from extended spring. Zach Tillery missed most of the 2016 season with injury, but he’ll need to make the move up to Ft. Myers. Logan Lombana served a 50-game suspension last year. Late in the season, he moved up and ended the season with the Miracle. Confesor Lara signed with the Twins for the last couple of weeks of the season after being let go by the Tigers organization.

 

Michael Theofanopoulos repeated in Cedar Rapids during the first half of the 2016 season. He pitched well and then did well in the second half with the Miracle. McIver spent the season with the Kernels and very quietly put together a strong season. Sam Clay pitched in the Midwest League All-Star Game for the Kernels. He did move up to Ft. Myers to end the season. Drafted out of Georgia Tech where he was a reliever, it’s likely Clay moves to the bullpen at some point during the season.

 

 

Cedar Rapids Kernels

RHP - Colton Davis (23), Johan Quezada (22), Alex Schik (22), Clark Beeker(24), Patrick McGuff (22), Quin Grogan(23), Hector Lujan (22)

LHP - Andrew Vasquez (23), Alex Robinson (22)

 

It becomes really difficult to project who will be in the lower level bullpens. Several of these pitchers were starters in college at this time last year. That group includes Colton Davis, Alex Schik, Clark Beeker, Patrick McGuff and Quin Grogan. Davis and Beeker ended the season in Cedar Rapids’ bullpen. McGuff joined the Kernels for their playoff run last year after dominating the GCL and at Elizabethton.

 

Johan Quezada became quite popular last year when it came out that he grew a bunch and started throwing fastballs that occasionally touched triple digits. Hector Lujan was a 2015 draft pick. He pitched in Elizabethton, and he actually made one appearance in Ft. Myers too.

 

Andrew Vasquez made a couple of appearances in Elizabethton before moving up to Cedar Rapids where he dominated.. In 38.1 innings, he struck out 51 batters (12.4 per nine). Alex Robinson was used as a starter at the start of the 2016 E-Twins season, but he completely lacked control. He’s likely a bullpen guy, but he’ll have to get a lot better control to do that.

 

 

Extended Spring Training

RHP - Moises Gomez (20), Juan Gamez (22), Blair Lasko (23), Callan Pearce (21), Matz Schutte (19), Garrett Kelly (22), Zach Strecker (23), Vadim Balan (23), Petru Balan (20)

LHP - Domenick Carlini (23), Austin Tribby (22)

 

Unlike many years, the Twins signed several undrafted players after the draft. Zach Strecker went to Kentucky and then pitched out of the GCL bullpen. Blair Lasko couldn’t throw strikes at Buffalo, but he found some control in the summer league and threw well, and hard, and the Twins took a shot. Garrett Kelly went to Wake Forest where he was a catcher, but he moved to the mound. He throws 95, but he’s got a lot of room to grow. Juan Gamez was drafted in 2016, but he has a similar story. He was a catcher in college, but the Twins quickly moved him to the mound as well.

 

This offseason, the Twins signed Petru Balan, the younger brother of the Vadim Balan. The two are from Moldova. Vadim Balan pitched just a couple of times in the GCL in 2015 before having some back issues that caused him to miss all of 2016. Callan Pearce, from South Africa, has pitched in the GCL the last three years. He’ll jump up to Elizabethton. Matz Schutte is from The Netherlands and has pitched in the GCL the last two years. The 20-year-old Moises Gomez pitched the last two seasons in the GCL. In 2016, he was 4-0 with a 1.19 ERA.

 

Lefties Domenick Carlini and Austin Tribby were drafted in 2016 and pitched in Elizabethton. They could pitch in Cedar Rapids in 2017 as well.

 

 

 

Top Prospects

1.) JT Chargois

2.) Jake Reed

3.) Nick Burdi

4.) Trevor Hildenberger

5.) Mason Melotakis

6.) Thomas Hackimer

7.) John Curtiss

8.) Andrew Vasquez

9.) Alan Busenitz

10.) Alex Wimmers

 

 

So what do you think? Who will comprise the Twins bullpen, and how will things trickle down the system? Which prospects are you most looking forward to seeing perform in 2017?

 

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[BoofBonser]

It'll be interesting to see how the bullpen situation will turn out. 

Chargois should definitely have a role, he's the closer of the future.

 

Don't really trust Tonkin at all, would like to see Haley or even Vogelsong over him. 

 

If our bullpen can be solid this season, it could mask our lack of quality starting pitching enough to make us look half respectable on the rubber.

[DocBauer]

Interesting that 13 players are listed as possible bullpen options, at least initially, for 7 spots. And this doesn't even include one of the AAA arms really stepping up.

 

IMO, I would remove May for the rotation, and I see Vogelsong as a AAA SP to begin the season with an outside shot at the 5th starting spot. I also think Perkins a very long shot to begin the season with the Twins. Take away those 3, and there are still 10 pretty viable options to work with, again, not counting anyone from the AAA really stepping forward. Outstanding? No. But there are some arms to work with there. I still would have gone for a closer bounce back vs Believe.

 

There is something to work with here, at least, some potential, and further hope from a possibly loaded Rochester bullpen: Reed, Hildenberger, Melotakis and possibly Baxendale and Busenitz.

[clutterheart]

Is Hildenberger healthy?

If Burdi is healthy I'd hope they push him to AAA

No need to be conservative with him at this point

[D.C Twins]

If Hughes and Berrios are not ready....and Justin Haley pitches well in ST...AND Mercury is in retrograde....any chance for Haley to just be the 5th starter (others have options)? Might as well see what we really have (and return to sender if we don't like him) in this first season of a 3-5 year plan. It seems like we have a pending glut of cheap-controlled-home-grown relievers, so if not starter material....he may not be needed.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Is Hildenberger healthy?
If Burdi is healthy I'd hope they push him to AAA
No need to be conservative with him at this point

 

Hildenberger has told me that he's healthy, so I think he'll be ready to go when minor league camp starts. 

 

There is no need to not be conservative with Burdi. I don't get what you mean by "at this point." Because he missed a year? That would be a great reason to be conservative. Or, because he hasn't pitched well at AA yet as a pro? That's also a good reason. There is no rush to get him up fast. 

 

That said, if he dominated for the first 4-6 weeks, he should be moved up to AAA, and if he dominates there for 4-5 weeks, call him up. 

 

But he's only 23 still, so zero reason to do anything unnecessary. 

[DocBauer]

I agree on Burdi. He's so talented and at any moment you just feel he could simply take off. And miswing last season is frustrating for all involved. But I feel AA IS appropriate to not only begin the season, but because of the number of solid to very good options at AAA. I love the potential of Melotakis and think he's going to be good. He also could jump very soon, but his progress has been very similar to Chargois and I'd hate to rush him.

 

I looked again at the prospect list as listed above. Give me that top 5 and 2 more of Rogers, Pressly, Duffey and probably Haley and I'm happy enough to do the Snoopy dance!

[HitInAPinch]

More MiLBers / less MLB retreads!

[gman]

Looks like we really have the potential for a dominating pen in 2018. There SHOULD be a lot of turnover in both the pen (and rotation) this year. I hope management is prepared to allow the growing pains.

[Vanimal46]

This should certainly be the most fluid group on the team. All I really care about is shuffling through the list of 13+ options and making a decision on who stays and who goes after this year. The MiLB options aren't spring chickens anymore. They need to get their chance in the MLB soon. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

This should certainly be the most fluid group on the team. All I really care about is shuffling through the list of 13+ options and making a decision on who stays and who goes after this year. The MiLB options aren't spring chickens anymore. They need to get their chance in the MLB soon. 

 

 

I agree, unless they really surprise us and compete for a playoff spot, I'd like to see as many of the young players up and given a shot, as possible. 

[Thrylos]

As far as the pen goes, I'd say the there are 3 locks:

 

Kintzler, Belisle, Pressly

 

I think that May will be in the rotation  I think that Santiago will end up as the long man in the pen.

 

So you are looking for 3 more and at least one of them a lefty.  I also think that in addition to  May, either Vogelsong or Haley will make the rotation.  The other one will be the second long man in the pen.  Pick either.   Two more, and at least one lefty.   And I will be surprised if that lefty is not Breslow.

 

(and if someone is keeping score, this means that 2 40-man spots need to open.)

 

One more position among Chargois, Rogers (*), Melotakis (*), Tonkin, Boshers (*), Duffey, O'Rourke (*).  I do not see any more non-40 man roster making the team.  If I were to bet, I'd say that the best one of the former Rice co-closers will make the pen and likely that would be Duffey.

 

Sorry out of options Mr Tonkin, you are DFA'd along with Mr O'Rourke for those 40-man roster openings.

 

 

Still I will be surprised if all of those players listed are with the Twins when camp breaks...

 

 

[dbminn]

Hopefully, the prospects pitch well enough to get a chance with the big league club. With a large pool of capable RP with options, the Twins can mirror the Yankees bullpen scheme. They run a shuttle between AAA and the MLB team. This strategy reduces the chance for too many appearances by any single reliever. IMO, the Twins are a prime candidate for this strategy since their SP rarely make it through the sixth inning. Just need to have available arms to make it work.

[mikelink45]

Keep bringing in the young, move on from Tonkin, get Vogelsong to give vet presence during the spring and send him away with a nice Easter Basket.  Tell Breslow it was nice to see him again and give him his Twin vet returns award and send him off.  Rotate players between AAA and MLB until the right mix is achieved.  We have been hearing about these relievers for a long time and it is a good year to see what they have.  I want to play for a great future and not a mediocre present.

[DocBauer]

I think the shuttle between the Twins is, more or less a given isn't it? Guys get hurt, even minor injuries, and Rochester should be pretty loaded with guys awaiting their turn.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

If Hughes and Berrios are not ready....and Justin Haley pitches well in ST...AND Mercury is in retrograde....any chance for Haley to just be the 5th starter (others have options)? Might as well see what we really have (and return to sender if we don't like him) in this first season of a 3-5 year plan. It seems like we have a pending glut of cheap-controlled-home-grown relievers, so if not starter material....he may not be needed.

I have Haley in the starting rotation, along with May. I'd like to see Berrios in AAA for a little more seasoning, and be the first one up. Vogelsong does not make it, and I think Hughes might be on the DL.

 

Santana, Santiago (at least in the beginning), Gibson, May and Haley will be in the rotation. But, as a warning, Gibson and Santiago are on short leashes; if either falters, Berrios will be ready to step in. Duffey will be in the bullpen, but could make some starts.

[DocBauer]

I have Haley in the starting rotation, along with May. I'd like to see Berrios in AAA for a little more seasoning, and be the first one up. Vogelsong does not make it, and I think Hughes might be on the DL.

 

Santana, Santiago (at least in the beginning), Gibson, May and Haley will be in the rotation. But, as a warning, Gibson and Santiago are on short leashes; if either falters, Berrios will be ready to step in. Duffey will be in the bullpen, but could make some starts.

 

Not going to disagree with you. I think Haley, pitching well, has a shot at the end of the rotation since Hughes is such an unknown and Berrios has options. However, I think if Berrios really shows progress, options or not, I could see him in the rotation and bumping Haley to the pen. I get we need to look at young starters, but Berrios has even better stuff and probably more upside than Haley, so it would make sense to place him in the pen initially.

 

I also agree to no on Vogelsong. I think he's at AAA if he shows anything as a potential call up.

 

My best guess: Kintzler, Belize, Chargois, Pressly, Duffey and Haley with Rogers from the left side. From there, one of Breslow, Boshers or O'Rourke.

 

Now, that makes 8, which could happen, but I expect a 7 man pen. So who goes? That's what I can't answer. But not only do these things "sort themselves out" but invariably someone pulls something, has some tightness, etc. So I am going to cheat and name 8 for the pen for now.

[Oldgoat_MN]

FWIW: Fangraphs projection for the Twins pitchers forecast the following:

 

Tyler Duffey..........3.77 FIP

Michael Tonkin......3.82 FIP

Taylor Rogers.......3.83 FIP

Glen Perkins.........3.87 FIP

Buddy Boshers......3.90 FIP

J.T. Chargois........3.95 FIP

Brandon Kintzler....3.97 FIP

Ryan Pressly........3.99 FIP

 

The rest are over 4.0.

 

 

[Physics Guy]

Rotation: Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes and May. Berrios first call up, maybe Vogelsong in AAA if he accepts assignment.

 

Bullpen: Kintzler, Pressly, Belsile, Chargois, Haley, Rogers and Breslow. Duffey either goes to AAA to work on a third pitch or is converted to a reliever (which is what I would prefer). Tonkin becomes AAA filler if he goes unclaimed. Boshers and O'Rourke are filler if Breslow or Rogers struggle. O'Rourke is a LOOGY and a team fighting to get back to .500 can't afford that, especially with the rotation we've dealt with lately.

[Physics Guy]

Forgot to mention, Haley makes it as insurance against Hughes. We need somebody who can eat innings.

[Mr. Brooks]

Hildenberger has told me that he's healthy, so I think he'll be ready to go when minor league camp starts.

 

There is no need to not be conservative with Burdi. I don't get what you mean by "at this point." Because he missed a year? That would be a great reason to be conservative. Or, because he hasn't pitched well at AA yet as a pro? That's also a good reason. There is no rush to get him up fast.

 

That said, if he dominated for the first 4-6 weeks, he should be moved up to AAA, and if he dominates there for 4-5 weeks, call him up.

 

But he's only 23 still, so zero reason to do anything unnecessary.

I get what you are saying Seth, and some prospects require more patience than others.

But, when one of the specific reasons for drafting a guy at a certain point in the draft is because they are close to mlb ready then it does matter, at least a little bit.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I get what you are saying Seth, and some prospects require more patience than others.
But, when one of the specific reasons for drafting a guy at a certain point in the draft is because they are close to mlb ready then it does matter, at least a little bit.

 

Sure... but they're drafted for their upside and potential... and there may be a belief that he is close to MLB ready... but they shouldn't promote based on that. Especially if there is an injury involved. Burdi is 23... There is no rush. Getting him up in 2017 might be good, and it might be fun... but I'm more concerned about 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, etc... 

[Mr. Brooks]

Sure... but they're drafted for their upside and potential... and there may be a belief that he is close to MLB ready... but they shouldn't promote based on that. Especially if there is an injury involved. Burdi is 23... There is no rush. Getting him up in 2017 might be good, and it might be fun... but I'm more concerned about 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, etc...

Right, I'm not suggesting they promote based on that. Just saying it's OK to be disappointed that he hasn't sniffed mlb yet, unlike a more raw draft pick.

[ashbury]

Forgot to mention, Haley makes it as insurance against Hughes. We need somebody who can eat innings.

To be an innings eater you first have to be able to get out of the fourth inning against major league hitters on a consistent basis. Is Haley that guy?

[Otto von Ballpark]

To be an innings eater you first have to be able to get out of the fourth inning against major league hitters on a consistent basis. Is Haley that guy?

Probably meant soak up innings at the back of the pen. Traditional Rule 5 role.

[Physics Guy]

Probably meant soak up innings at the back of the pen. Traditional Rule 5 role.

Correct

Edited February 17, 2017 by Physics Guy