Article: TD Top Prospects: #8 Kohl Stewart

[markos]

Two rebuttals to a couple of points that have been raised in Stewart's defense.
- At this point we are almost four full seasons past his high school career. Whether or not he focused on baseball in high school should have such a minimal impact on his results right now. On top of that, at the time of the draft there was very little concern about how his HS football career was going to hold his development back on the mound. In fact, it was often brought up as a positive, in the sense that "look how good he is, and he hasn't even focused on pitching full time. Imagine how fast he will develop once he focuses on baseball full time!" Contrast the scouting reports of Stewart that year to those of Trey Ball, who EVERYONE agreed was a major, major project as a pitcher. Heck, even as late as October, 2013, Baseball America selected Stewart as the "Closest To The Majors" for that high school draft class. Personally, I think it is more of a post hoc excuse for his lackluster performance rather than a serious consideration at the time.
- As mentioned above by Spycake, his results, particularly his ERAs and HR rates, have in part been surpressed by the leagues in which he has been playing. For example, a 3.20 ERA is superficially very good, but in the Florida State League in 2015, that was just league average. Similarly, he gave up 4 HRs in the FSL; the average pitcher in that league would have given up 6. A similar dynamic played out in the Southern League.

[Tom Froemming]

How does a guy have 4.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and still post a 3.03 ERA  over 92 innings like Stewart did in Double A?

 

Magic. He's a wizard. Only logical explanation I've managed to come up with.

[markos]

My explanation for why he has struggled is that his stuff has backed up.

One of the major reasons that he was a consensus top-10 pick is that he not only had very good stuff going into the draft, but he also had the build, mechanics and athleticism that allowed scouts to project that his stuff would improve in pro-ball. Take this quote from BP: "Stewart's raw stuff, combined with the room for growth in that stuff, might make him the highest upside arm in the entire draft. He checks all the boxes for a future potential #1, including a big body, four-pitch mix, two potential plus-plus offerings, good athleticism, and repeatable mechanic that should improve as he continues to refine." Instead, every indication is that over the past 3+ years there has been zero grown. His stuff has stagnated at best, and backed up at worst. Looking at his velocity, the spring before his draft he was said to have a fastball that worked 91-96, but was inconsistent inning-to-inning and game-to-game. Today, you can basically copy-paste the same scouting report, though depending on who you talk to he is more in the low-90s than mid-90s. I think the exact same argument could be made for his command-and-control. And I'm not aware of anyone suggesting that his slider has improved in the past 3 years.

 

Now, obviously this is a hard assertion to prove, and impossible to quantify without access to consistent PitchFX data. But that is my suspicion.

 

I don't think it is completely fair to blame the Twins development for this - some HS kids develop better stuff; a lot don't. Stewart wouldn't be the first kid to have his stuff take a step back. But at the same time, the previous regime does not have many (if any?) positive results when it comes to guiding young power pitchers to the majors. So I guess that is why I'm holding onto some optimism for Stewart. Last year I was basically ready to write off Stewart as a non-prospect, but lots of prospect analysts were and are still bullish on Stewart's tools. Keith Law still has him ranked as a top-100 guy. The 2080 guys said he is still an arm that they really like. There is still upside there. A new regime with a better development program could work wonders for him.

[Vanimal46]

I don't think it is completely fair to blame the Twins development for this - some HS kids develop better stuff; a lot don't. Stewart wouldn't be the first kid to have his stuff take a step back. But at the same time, the previous regime does not have many (if any?) positive results when it comes to guiding young power pitchers to the majors. So I guess that is why I'm holding onto some optimism for Stewart. Last year I was basically ready to write off Stewart as a non-prospect, but lots of prospect analysts were and are still bullish on Stewart's tools. Keith Law still has him ranked as a top-100 guy. The 2080 guys said he is still an arm that they really like. There is still upside there. A new regime with a better development program could work wonders for him.

Your last paragraph hits the nail on the head where I'm at with Stewart. We probably don't have enough info to blame Stewart's lack of progression entirely on the past regime. But, as you pointed out, the past regime didn't have many, if any, success stories developing power arms. From our view 1,000 miles away, it sure sounds like they were still preaching pitch to contact and making him a sinker ball pitcher.

 

I also believe a new regime and new philosophy could work wonders for him. Looking forward to reading his progress in the minor league reports this year!

[Oldgoat_MN]

Kohl Stewart.......... 51.2 innings in A+ ball in 2016....7.7 SO/9....1.123 WHIP upon repeating that level.

Fernando Romero....62.1 innings in A+ ball in 2016.. .9.4 SO/9....0.930 WHIP upon his introduction to that level.

 

The 22 year old I'm betting on is named Romero.

[Kwak]

Modest K/9 and with the projected Twins defense? Kohl had better learn a devastating pick-off move or his ERA will zoom to the sky.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think your research says it all. He's Pat Dean, but without the control. If he wasn't a high draft pick, he'd be looked at as organizational depth.

 

As to "be patient, he's 21", every milb player who never made it was once 21. I was once 21, and I never pitched in the majors either. Simply being young alone means next to nothing.

[DocBauer]

I was off the Stewart bandwagon before 2016, to be honest. But the weak contact, the solid ERA, the number of solid starts and bump in K's the first half of last season at Ft Myers, plus his young age, got me re-thinking about him. Call it a hunch I guess, but those positives, with his build and frame and athleticism, tweaks and consistency to his delivery...which will hopefully happen with experience and some fresh approaches implemented by the new regime...have me encouraged and thinking he'said just one of those guys who is going to bloom later than originally expected/hoped for. Keep in mind, "later", in this case, means knocking on the ML door as a 23 or 24yother. Not exactly old by any means.

[mlhouse]

I am going to repeat some of the observations I have made on Stewart.

 

1.  The comment about being competitive made above is very true, but he might be too emotional.  IF something goes wrong out on the field he comes back to the dugout angry.  I remember one time Stewart coming off the mound, talking to Gonsalves and Smith, just totally emotional.  Stewart walks away and Smith and Gonslalves were laughing.  

 

2.  The problem with his K-rate is his slider.  His command of his fastball is excellent, and he has 92-94 velocity.  His slider could be a very good out pitch but right now it does not have enough vertical (it doesnt have any) movement so batters are able to get their bats on it. 

 

3.  Because of his command of his fast ball and change, hitters do have a very hard time making good contact on him at the A+ level.  He can put the ball inside and out, and hit all the zones. A+ hitters struggle to get good timing and the hardest contact these guys make against him are change ups they are way out in front of.

 

4.  His curveball is a secondary pitch in his arsenal and I think it can one day be a plus pitch.  Right now it is a flux pitch and he doesnt throw it often.  When he is on, the hitters are frozen.  The problem is that his mispitch rate on the curve is 50+%.

 

 

Stewart's upside in a MLB rotation depend on the slider.  AS someone above noted, I think a lot of it is his arm slot on delivering the slider. I think he can adjust a bit to give his slider more bite.  I also wonder if the Twins are delaying this to try to prevent injury to his elbow in throwing these tighter sliders.

 

If he gets command of his slider to the level of his fastball/change, he can be a #2 pitcher in the majors.  If he figures out his curve, he has a chance at a 3-4 spot.  His ERA and total production show the command of the basic pitches, but without the slider or even a curve, major league hitters will be able to get much better contact than the low minor league guys he has faced.

 

 

[Willihammer]

Interesting comments mlhouse.

[Bob Sacamento]

I think some of you are confusing COMMAND and CONTROL.  They are two distinct entities.  CONTROL of one's pitches is the ability to throw strikes and get the ball across the plate, Stewart has that. COMMAND is the ability to throw the pitch where the catcher sets up, Stewart lacks that.  

 

Stewart's still young and can still grow and learn but he's looking more like a #4/5 starter in the mold of a Carlos Silva type.