Article: 2017 Minnesota Twins Roster Projections - The Starting Pitchers

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I sure hope Romero starts at AA. I understand your concerns about innings pitched, but he has already dominated A+ pitching IMO. He's ready to start at AA.

 

He might not get to the majors in 2017, but he should get enough innings to be ready for 2018.

[tobi0040]

I am hoping swapping May and Duffey between the rotation and pen was low hanging fruit for the new team. Decided in rather quickly.

[jorgenswest]

The starter with the best xFIP and SIERA was Tyler Duffey last year. Both have a higher correlation to future ERA than ERA. His xFIP+ was 8% better than league.

 

The disparity between the two was huge. He had the perfect storm of a bad defense, abnormally high HR/FB rate and a significant drop in DP rate compared to 2015. 

 

I would plan to have Duffey in the rotation entering spring. The Twins can't afford to miss on any young starter. Duffey, May and Berrios are critical to the Twins short and long term future.

[Deduno Abides]

Predicting who makes which rotation may (should) be more difficult this year. Decision patterns of Terry Ryan may not be shared by Falvine, both of whom come from organizations that have pushed pitcher faster than the Twins. More-talented pitchers, like Gonsalves and Romero, may be be raised based on results and skill command more than in the historical lock step ideas of pitching a certain number of innings at each level and waiting for more senior pitchers to fail. One of the most interesting outcomes of spring training will be seeing whether Falvey and Levine slot pitchers similarly to how Ryan did or if they chart a new course.

 

 

Also, it's too bad for the Twins that the method of trading veteran pitchers of the Wandy Rodriguez skill level for prospects is harder now, because it sure would be great to be able to cash in on Santana, Gibson and Hughes at mid-season. It would also be great to cash in on Santiago, but the TR-era Twins may have been the last front office to give much credit to ERA while discounting newer statistics like xFIP, so that may be too much to hope for.

[Deduno Abides]

Predicting who makes which rotation may (should) be more difficult this year. Decision patterns of Terry Ryan may not be shared by Falvine, both of whom come from organizations that have pushed pitcher faster than the Twins. More-talented pitchers, like Gonsalves and Romero, may be be raised based on results and skill command more than in the historical lock step ideas of pitching a certain number of innings at each level and waiting for more senior pitchers to fail. One of the most interesting outcomes of spring training will be seeing whether Falvey and Levine slot pitchers similarly to how Ryan did or if they chart a new course.

 

 

Also, it's too bad for the Twins that the method of trading veteran pitchers of the Wandy Rodriguez skill level for prospects is harder now, because it sure would be great to be able to cash in on Santana, Gibson and Hughes at mid-season. It would also be great to cash in on Santiago, but the TR-era Twins may have been the last front office to give much credit to ERA while discounting newer statistics like xFIP, so that may be too much to hope for.

[ossieO]

Seth, does Duffey have an option left? Can he be sent to AAA?  How about May?

 

For that matter, who else on the 40-man roster is out of options?  I believe Tonkin, Polanco, and Danny Santana for starters.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

For that matter, who else on the 40-man roster is out of options?  I believe Tonkin, Polanco, and Danny Santana for starters.

 

Those 3 are out for sure.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Anyone else hearing Peter Gabriel's "In Your Eyes" playing in the background??

Oh hey, it's Lewis Thorpe outside your bedroom window! 

http://www.poorandpretty.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Say-Anything.jpg

This thread went creepy in a hurry.

[Mike Sixel]

I will be disappointed if Berrios is in the minors, and Gonsalves is in AA. Very.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I will be disappointed if Berrios is in the minors, and Gonsalves is in AA. Very.

Same here, and I'd also be disappointed if Fernando Romero is in advanced A ball as well.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Pitchers do get hurt...sometimes in spring training.  We may not even have 6 guys to throw to start the year.  Not trying to be negative, it's just reality.

 

I don't think you're being negative at all. I agree that injuries are a reality, which is why I don't get too hung up in February about which five are the first five to get a shot. I picked those six, but I'd easily add Vogelsong or somebody else if a couple of those are hurt.

 

Looking at the schedule, I do like the idea of starting with six, however, particularly if that includes at least a couple of Hughes (coming back from injury), May (transitioning from bullpen), or Berrios (still progressing in innings). That's a way of continuing to work them in gradually.

Edited February 16, 2017 by IndianaTwin

[Physics Guy]

 

I will be disappointed if Berrios is in the minors, and Gonsalves is in AA. Very.

I get what you are saying on Berrios, but I would be OK with it if May is ready to start the season in the rotation.  I will be shocked if Santana, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes aren't the top four in the rotation.  Since May is older, I would rather see him in the rotation than JB.  Berrios comes up by May if one of the first four falters or is injured.  Conversely, it sounds like May has an option left, so maybe we start May in AAA so he can work his way back into starting again.  I think Vogelsong is AAA filler.  I see Duffey's future as a setup man and Haley as the long reliever.

[Twinfan603]

They shouldn't have bothered tendering Santiago a contract. Last year, his trade value was the ghost of Alex Meyer and Ricky Nolasco; even if he pitches to his career norms he is not a flip candidate. They now have ~$8 million wasted on the books, and worse yet, a starting spot.

 

If 2 of May, Berrios, and Duffy are not in the rotation to start the year, this is going to be a longer season than we think. If we're relying on veterans to get injured to give the young guys with potential a chance, something is seriously wrong. Stop with the lip service to outdated thinking. Cut Santiago asap, don't be afraid of pushing Hughes out of the rotation if he's ineffective, gauge the market and trade Santana when you can this summer, and for the love of God, don't let Vogelsong near the mound unless half the people mentioned above get hurt.

 

2017 is the beginning of a new regime. Let's have a new M.O. as well.

[Willihammer]

I think (hope) Santiago is going to surprise a few people. He has decent stuff.

[Thrylos]

 

Take heart, Twins Fans!  3/5ths of the 1987 Twins starting rotation consisted of :

 

Les Straker

Mike Smithson

Joe Niekro

 

I don't want to see Berrios in AAA again.  And I don't want to see him in the Twins rotation, either.  Put him in the bullpen where Allen can work with him and get him acclimated to the MLB.

 

 

Check this out.  Mixing 1987 & 2016 performance (for the ones still left with the team) :

 

E.Santana 124 ERA+
Stracker 106 ERA+
Gibson 82 ERA+
Smithson 78 ERA+
Santiago 75 ERA+
Niekro 74 ERA+
Hughes 70 ERA+
Duffey 65 ERA+
Berrios 52 ERA+

 

 

And add Viola and Blyleven to the '87 team

 

Take heart?   

 

[FormerMinnasotan]

I get what you are saying on Berrios, but I would be OK with it if May is ready to start the season in the rotation. I will be shocked if Santana, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes aren't the top four in the rotation. Since May is older, I would rather see him in the rotation than JB. Berrios comes up by May if one of the first four falters or is injured. Conversely, it sounds like May has an option left, so maybe we start May in AAA so he can work his way back into starting again. I think Vogelsong is AAA filler. I see Duffey's future as a setup man and Haley as the long reliever.

What if none of the starters are really struggling? How long do we keep Berrios in the minors? Berrios is too important to keep in AAA for a 1/4-1/2 the season.

[Physics Guy]

 

What if none of the starters are really struggling? How long do we keep Berrios in the minors? Berrios is too important to keep in AAA for a 1/4-1/2 the season.

I guess that depends on your definition of "really struggling".  It would be a very nice problem to have (as opposed everyone struggling, besides Santana).  I honestly think everyone (Santana, Gibson, Santiago and Hughes) have the capability of being 4.00 ERA starters.  The odds of all four of them achieving it, not likely.  One of the four will falter.  Berrios not being in camp during the WBC likely has him starting in AAA.

[Vanimal46]

I don't get why Berrios pitching in the WBC is viewed as a negative thing... There's a lot of very good players going to the tournament. Probably better talent than what he would face in spring training this year if he stayed in Florida. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't get why Berrios pitching in the WBC is viewed as a negative thing... There's a lot of very good players going to the tournament. Probably better talent than what he would face in spring training this year if he stayed in Florida. 

 

He won't be working with the Twins' coaches, they won't have control over how he is used......no idea if it is good or bad, but for a team completely changing it's approach to pitching development, and for a guy that had serious control issues, I'd want him in camp, with my pitching coach.

[Vanimal46]

 

He won't be working with the Twins' coaches, they won't have control over how he is used......no idea if it is good or bad, but for a team completely changing it's approach to pitching development, and for a guy that had serious control issues, I'd want him in camp, with my pitching coach.

Yeah I suppose. He's still down there in Florida right now and getting the crash course before leaving for this tournament, no? Being with the coaches every day is a good thing, but pitching against Manny Machado 3 times a game instead of Manny MayNeverMakeIt is also valuable. 

[Squirrel]

He won't be working with the Twins' coaches, they won't have control over how he is used......no idea if it is good or bad, but for a team completely changing it's approach to pitching development, and for a guy that had serious control issues, I'd want him in camp, with my pitching coach.

This is a big part of why I'm not a huge fan the WBC, especially at this time of the season.

[Thrylos]

 

He won't be working with the Twins' coaches, they won't have control over how he is used......no idea if it is good or bad, but for a team completely changing it's approach to pitching development, and for a guy that had serious control issues, I'd want him in camp, with my pitching coach.

 

Exactly.  

 

It also shows to me that the Twins are not his number 1 priority.  Every Twins player should be there working 100% to turn the 103 L team around instead of following personal interests.

[Vanimal46]

 

Exactly.  

 

It also shows to me that the Twins are not his number 1 priority.  Every Twins player should be there working 100% to turn the 103 L team around instead of following personal interests.

Couldn't disagree more with your last paragraph. With this logic, Manny Machado doesn't care about the Orioles, Julio Urias hates the Dodgers, etc. 

[Willihammer]

FWIW Ricky Bones will be pitching coach of team PR, whose day job is bullpen coach for the Mets.

[Willihammer]

The Twins "coaching" by committee did a number on Berrios last year. Maybe some good will come from his time in the WBC.

[Thrylos]

 

Couldn't disagree more with your last paragraph. With this logic, Manny Machado doesn't care about the Orioles, Julio Urias hates the Dodgers, etc. 

 

I did not say that.  They care more about their Countries (or Commonwealth in the case of Puerto Rico) than they care about the success of their professional teams.

 

Actions speak louder than words.  Playing at the WBC is optional.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exactly.  

 

It also shows to me that the Twins are not his number 1 priority.  Every Twins player should be there working 100% to turn the 103 L team around instead of following personal interests.

 

wow, couldn't disagree with this take more strongly. Wow.

[Thrylos]

 

This is a big part of why I'm not a huge fan the WBC, especially at this time of the season.

 

They can do it this time of the season, but everyone on an MLB 40-man roster should be excluded.  That will solve the problem.

Edited February 16, 2017 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

They can do it this time of the season, but everyone on an MLB 40-man roster should be excluded.  That will solve the problem.

 

Just totally disagree with this stance. I'd like the WBC to be even bigger, frankly.

[Thrylos]

 

Just totally disagree with this stance. I'd like the WBC to be even bigger, frankly.

 

In the expense of MLB?  Why?  If the whole idea is to develop local talent, have that talent play instead of MLB players.

Edited February 16, 2017 by Thrylos