Article: What To Make Of Kennys Vargas

[Tom Froemming]

The actions (or lack there of) from the Twins' front office appear to have thrust Kennys Vargas into a position to be the team's designated hitter. While Twins fans are familiar with Vargas after seeing him in cameos the past three seasons, expectations are varied.

 

And for good reason. We've seen Vargas look like a force worthy of an everyday role, and we've seen him struggle to the point it's fair to wonder if he is slapped with the dreaded Quad-A hitter label at some point.Byungho Park is still around, but having been removed from the 40-man roster, his path to playing time is obstructed. Potential free agent targets Jose Bautista (back with Toronto), Mike Napoli (back with Texas) and Chris Carter (signed with the Yankees) are off the market, leaving the likes of Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind and Justin Morneau among the top available bats.

 

In other words, it appears likely Vargas will get another opportunity to prove himself. There are some reasons to be optimistic.

 

He's already been pretty good

 

Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com recently shared some impressive numbers from last season, highlighting Vargas' exit velocity, launch angle and fly-ball rate. That piece is well worth your time, but even when you take his entire body of work from the past three seasons into account it's easy to see why the club would trust Vargas with DH duties.

 

Vargas has compiled roughly a full season's worth of playing time (595 PAs over 158 games) and has a .251/.309/.434 line with 24 HR and 75 RBI. That's not going to win him a Silver Slugger or anything like that, but even if he doesn't improve at all you could do worse than a guy with a career 103 OPS+ as your DH.

 

It's a good bet he'll continue to improve his strikezone control

 

Vargas entered 2016 with 21 carer walks over 335 PAs in the majors. Last season, he surpassed that total in just over half as many PAs (24 BB in 177 PAs). Given his minor league track record, I don't think that was a fluke.

 

MLB: 29.2 K%, 7.6 BB%

AAA: 23.2 K%, 16.6 BB%

AA: 18.0 K%, 12.4 BB%

 

For what it's worth, Vargas' 66 walks tied him for second most in the International League last year. I think it's a safe to believe Vargas could maintain a walk rate in the double digits, which is something only 28% of qualified hitters could accomplish last season.

 

Repeating his 2016 walk rate of 13.6% would put him into elite company, as that's only a shade behind Joe Mauer's. Just a dozen qualified hitters drew walks more frequently than that last year.

 

I'm not as confident Vargas will get his strikeouts under control, but it's certainly possible. If he can keep up the walks and slug some more homers, however, it's not really gonna matter.

 

Speaking of home runs, Vargas also had an uptick in longballs last season. His homer rate (HR every 15.2 ABs) was almost on par with Brian Dozier's (14.6 AB/HR).

 

He had a better winter than it appears at first glance

 

Some people have wondered if Vargas' poor numbers in winter ball clluld be a huge red flag. Vargas posted an ugly .179/.329/.316 line in winter ball. While that's not the way he wanted to follow up his MVP performance from the previous season, there are some silver linings.

 

The Puerto Rican winter league is extremely pitcher friendly. Only three hitters posted an OPS north of .800 (former Twins farmhand Danny Ortiz led the league with an .813 OPS). And while Vargas' slash line looks bad, he still led the league in walks (24), was second in RBIs (18) and third in home runs (3).

 

Again, it was certainly a disappointing performance, but he was far from a complete disaster.

 

So, what do you think? Is this the year Vargas establishes himself or will he be back in Rochester before we know it?

 

Click here to view the article

[DocBauer]

I am a big believer in Vargas and have championed him for some time. At various times, he has hitter better LH and RH, indicating he has the ability to perform from both sides of the plate, at least to some degree. His mild numbers indicate strong OPS and pretty consistent power numbers. He may always SO more than you'd like, but that is not uncommon for a slugger. He has also shown a willingness to work the count and take some free passes. That is NOT a bad thing. He also has put in a lot of work at 1B, his batting approach, and his ability to put more lift in to his batted balls. (The article referenced above is absolutely worth the read!)

 

For some who might argue he's been around for some time, he didn't even turn 26 until the season was over. And his usage has been sporadic. Again, as noted above, when in a groove, or even just coming off one, he's been benched or sent out for no good reason. Everything about his milb and ML production and potential screams out to be given a fair opportunity to see what he can do over time!

 

Just give it to him and don't bench him or send him out after a few bad games. If that philosophy were sound, half your team would be benched at different times. Early Dozier 2016 ring a bell?

[drjim]

A 103 OPS+ for a DH that brings nothing else to the table is pretty bad.

 

He might improve from consistent at bats, but I'm pretty skeptical. K rate is huge. He did have one brief stretch where he walked into some bombs, but seemed exposed with more at bats.

[Oldgoat_MN]

He has a career 103 OPS+ for his short career.

I'm going to focus on his 123 OPS+ from last year.

 

He got jerked around by his manager last year, as did several other players. He seldom started against LH pitchers, even though he had a 1.262 OPS against them. And as has been noted on this thread and others, he seems to get benched when he's hitting well.

 

I think it would be foolish not give him a regular slot, whether that be as the 1B when a LH is pitching or to try him against everybody. Basically we do not yet know what he's capable of.

 

Vargas' use is one of the reasons I have no confidence in this manager at all.

[USAFChief]

Why, I can make a hat or a brooch or a pterodactyl...

[Brandon]

Not only Park but Palka is also waiting in the wings for an opportunity. And all the talk of the Twins signing another hitter too.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Why, I can make a hat or a brooch or a pterodactyl...

you can make a pterodactyl of Kenny Vargas?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Not only Park but Palka is also waiting in the wings for an opportunity. And all the talk of the Twins signing another hitter too.

4 repeats, impressive

[Linus]

He's one of many Twins that are at a crossroads in their career. They hold some promise but are old enough that the team can't wait much longer. I hope the Twins give him an extended consistent chance so we can find out.

[bird]

 

Not only Park but Palka is also waiting in the wings for an opportunity. And all the talk of the Twins signing another hitter too.

 

 

Can you repeat that?

[theBOMisthebomb]

Let's give him 550+ PAs so we can know for certain.

[TheLeviathan]

 

A 103 OPS+ for a DH that brings nothing else to the table is pretty bad.

 

He might improve from consistent at bats, but I'm pretty skeptical. K rate is huge. He did have one brief stretch where he walked into some bombs, but seemed exposed with more at bats.

 

I get that you don't like Vargas, but this is far from even-handed analysis.  

 

Do you treat Buxton's production the same way?

 

I see Vargas having changed his approach significantly last year, I'd love to see what he could do with a full season of ABs.  If he can't produce, then we move on, but this team needs to invest in players like Vargas.

[jimmer]

 

I get that you don't like Vargas, but this is far from even-handed analysis.  

 

Do you treat Buxton's production the same way?

 

I see Vargas having changed his approach significantly last year, I'd love to see what he could do with a full season of ABs.  If he can't produce, then we move on, but this team needs to invest in players like Vargas.

Vargas did well in July and then went right back to being Vargas.  I agree we should give him a real shot, but I imagine we'll move on after this season.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Vargas did well in July and then went right back to being Vargas.  I agree we should give him a real shot, but I imagine we'll move on after this season.

 

Quite possible, but his playing time also became inexplicably sporadic.  

[Vanimal46]

Feels like the writing is already on the wall... Especially if the Heyman report has merit that we're looking at any veteran DH with a pulse to join the team. Vargas will be in AAA again to start the season.

[KirbyDome89]

^^^^^

How about "What to make of the Twins offseason,"......Yuck

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

4 repeats, impressive

Ball four. Good eye.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

And all the talk of the Twins signing another bitter too.

That has to be a signing from the Twins Daily Site.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Bark's Lounge

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Why, I can make a hat or a brooch or a pterodactyl...

Because you are old and your fine motor skills have deteriorated and although it is doubtful a human type species could procreate with a Pterodactyl, you might know different since you were alive when they existed.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Bark's Lounge

[drjim]

I get that you don't like Vargas, but this is far from even-handed analysis.

 

Do you treat Buxton's production the same way?

 

I see Vargas having changed his approach significantly last year, I'd love to see what he could do with a full season of ABs. If he can't produce, then we move on, but this team needs to invest in players like Vargas.

Buxton is over 3 years younger, is an elite up the middle defender and has #1 pedigree. So no, I don't talk about Buxton the same way.

 

I'm not opposed to giving Vargas a couple months of ABs, but I'm not that optimistic.

[TheLeviathan]

Buxton is over 3 years younger, is an elite up the middle defender and has #1 pedigree. So no, I don't talk about Buxton the same way.

I'm not opposed to giving Vargas a couple months of ABs, but I'm not that

I'm not sure I care all that much about pedigree. All of your concerns, except for defense, are as much or more so issues with Buxton.

 

I suggest the issue is unfairly holding limited initial results against a player. Especially one given limited consistent playing time. Vargas may well be a non-factor, but like all young hitters I don't measure them by the sum total of their early at bats but by the growth they show.

[Bark's Lounge]

Vargas got the shaft in 2015, he was starting to find his legs, and he was sent down in May. He ended up not doing to well in the minors that year. Maybe he was up and down last year, but he had an ops in the .830's. He strikes out some, but the dude can take a BB. He does not seem lost.

 

Instead of signing a guy from a thread I read today... a 1B/DH type, I would much rather roll with Vargas.

 

The worst that can happen is that he sucks day in and day out, that rings the same of a lot of players we have who are projected to start in our line-up. You then make changes.

 

Vargas is 26, that is young. Not every baseball player is a Ken Griffey Jr. or a Bryce Harper 19 year old easily making it to the bigs. Some guys need some time to figure it out.

 

Vargas is an asset and not a lost cause. Let's ride that horse... except for his defense. He is a DH.

 

I think he has the ability to be a 30HR and .800+OPS hitter. Very acceptable for a DH and fill in 1B.

[Riverbrian]

Quite possible, but his playing time also became inexplicably sporadic.

 

Yep

 

He goes on an incredible tear and is benched as a reward. Hard to build up those good numbers when your good swings are cut short by the guy who holds your fate in his hands.

 

He struggled in 2015 no doubt but there are many who did the same in year 2.

 

I'm not going to declare him a sure fire superstar... He may end up on the scrap heap of baseball history but he's earned the right to try and have a career and not be put to sleep by some manager with an opinion of what he should be doing that isn't matching up with what he is doing.

 

Let him play himself out of a job when someone actually out produces him and that didn't happen in 2016.

 

Molitor flat out pissed me off last August 4th. I honestly didn't care that much about Vargas prior. Now he's my poster boy.

 

Polanco and Kepler sitting on the bench while the regulars drove the team out of contention by the end of April was when I started thinking that Molitor just might be incapable of adjusting his pre-formed opinion on the fly.

 

His public apology to Brian Dozier for finally sitting him down for one (or two) games after a lengthy period of the struggles at the plate was when I was pretty sure that Molitor might Have locked himself in to pre-opinions.

 

His treatment of Vargas certainly removed any lingering doubts.

 

Let me conclude by saying that I have no idea if Vargas will make it or not if given regular playing time.

 

I just think it was indisputable that Molitor benched a guy who was red hot in favor of someone who wasn't even luke warm.

[Oldgoat_MN]

There were 25 DH last year with >= 100 at bats.

Vargas was 8th in OPS, 9th in wRC+ and 5th in ISO.

 

It wasn't luck either, as he was 12th in BABIP.

 

I hope we get a chance to see what he is capable of. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

4 repeats, impressive

Hey batta batta batta, saaawing batta batta

Edited February 10, 2017 by HitInAPinch

[HitInAPinch]

My guess is that the new FO will be looking at someone who can provide better play in the field than Vargas.  DH rotation, just like changing who plays against whom based on adv. stats.  I don't know how a one-dimensional player fits into Falvey's team construction model.

 

I like Vargas, he's shown some pop.  But his defensive play at 1st was "good for a big guy". 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Vargas got the shaft in 2015, he was starting to find his legs, and he was sent down in May. He ended up not doing to well in the minors that year. Maybe he was up and down last year, but he had an ops in the .830's. He strikes out some, but the dude can take a BB. He does not seem lost.

 

Instead of signing a guy from a thread I read today... a 1B/DH type, I would much rather roll with Vargas.

 

The worst that can happen is that he sucks day in and day out, that rings the same of a lot of players we have who are projected to start in our line-up. You then make changes.

 

Vargas is 26, that is young. Not every baseball player is a Ken Griffey Jr. or a Bryce Harper 19 year old easily making it to the bigs. Some guys need some time to figure it out.

 

Vargas is an asset and not a lost cause. Let's ride that horse... except for his defense. He is a DH.

 

I think he has the ability to be a 30HR and .800+OPS hitter. Very acceptable for a DH and fill in 1B.

i also believe that some consistent fielding of first base for Vargas could help him become a more consistent player/hitter overall and by slotting Mauer in at DH more keep the veteran healthier throughout the season.

 

I'm with you, give the 26 year old who's shown real promise a solid extended chance in 2017.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Sconnie

[mazeville]

Vargas deserves a spot on the team and I imagine he gets one. He hammered left-handed pitching last year and could platoon at first with Joe Mauer. So even if the Twins do sign another bat, Vargas likely earns himself plenty of playing time simply because Mauer is not a full time player anymore.

 

To be perfectly honest, I'm not entirely sure why we're looking for corner infielder/DH types. But Vargas will be on the roster and he's earned it.

[Seth Stohs]

I've never been real high on Vargas, but i have no problem with them giving him 500 PA in 2017 to see. The power is certainly there. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Quite possible, but his playing time also became inexplicably sporadic.  

His playing time doesn't look all that sporadic to me... He played nearly every day in July, then every 3 days after he struggled for 2+ weeks, and back to every day after September call-ups.