Article: Draft Preview: Greene Hits 100

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If you fast-forward four months… you’ll still be waiting another week for the draft to happen and there will still be plenty of uncertainty about what will happen as the Twins approach the podium to announce the first overall draft pick. They’ll also draft 35th, thanks to a competitive balance comp pick, and 37th, when the second round begins.The Twins will have the largest bonus pool at their disposal (nearly $13.5 million), but won’t have the ability to “play the draft” as others have in the past. Comparing the last two drafts, the first pick this year has $7.4 million tied to it, a dramatic decrease from last year’s $9 million and change. The first overall pick this year is twice the slot of the 13th pick; last year the first pick was worth twice as much as the fifth pick. These changes that have happened in the new CBA put a direct damper on teams trying to tank for the first pick (or, more specifically, the money tied to the first pick).

 

Gone are the days when a team could cut a deal with a player (or two) and use those savings on a third player who miraculously drops in the draft. In 2015, the Astros, owning the second, fifth and thirty-seventh picks were able to hand out three of the highest six bonuses.

 

Don’t misunderstand, some players will still sign underslot and some will still sign for overslot. It’s just not going to be the same as it was before. And that directly impacts the Twins.

 

Fortunately, despite all the changes, the Twins will still pick first and still have their choice of all the players available. And there are some good ones.

 

You probably saw the Keith Law tweet on Friday night that California prep RHP Hunter Greene hit 100 mph. (Or if you bought the Twins Prospect Handbook, you read there that he’s touched 100 mph before.)

 

Law’s tweet really got Twitter going though.

 

But according to a source in California, Greene touched 102 mph last week and has demonstrated improved command of his entire four-pitch arsenal. Over 60 scouts witnessed Friday’s tilt, where Greene also showed his ability to hit.

 

2/7 Update: Was able to talk to another source who was at the game. Said Greene touched 101 on Friday night and that his slider "was better". The slider is the aforementioned "fourth pitch" to go with his curveball and change. The Twins are believed to have had three scouts in attendance.

 

The state of Minnesota swooned.

 

Greene has become the fan’s early favorite to be selected first overall. But will the front office decide this is the year where a prep right-handed pitcher finally goes first overall? Only time will tell.

 

If not, there are plenty of other options. The college season hasn’t gotten underway yet, but Vanderbilt OF Jeren Kendall is a polished, five-tool prospect who deserves to be in the conversation. The Twins are enamored with the college pitching class which includes RHP Alex Faedo, Florida; RHP Kyle Wright, Vanderbilt; RHP J.B. Bukauskas, North Carolina; and RHP Alex Lange, LSU; among others.

 

There are other preps to consider too and one of the names at the top of the list is California prep SS Royce Lewis. Lewis headlines a fairly deep group of prep hitters and is out to prove he can play the most difficult position in baseball. He has played third base, deferring to upperclassmen, but is making the move to shortstop this spring. Some scouts also believe his future home might be in centerfield. If there’s one thing the old regime loved: it’s toolsy preps such as Lewis.

 

Other notes:

 

Christopher Crawford, who formerly wrote for ESPN, is now posting draft info at Hero Sports. You can read more on both Lewis and Alex Faedo there.

 

Full draft slots and pick values can be found at Baseball America. It’s a place worth bookmarking.

 

You can see what’s changed since I wrote up and even earlier draft piece in October.

 

And going back even further, here’s a link to the Twins Daily Draft Preview of Baseball America’s #1 Prospect, Andrew Benintendi.

 

The college baseball season kicks off soon. Be sure to check back for updates on your (potentially new) favorite players.

 

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[gunnarthor]

Nice.  Still hoping for Faedo to have a big season but Greene is a pretty exciting prospect.  Really hope we can get someone to fall at 35 and 37.

[Mike Sixel]

Can you be a 5 tool prospect, if you can't make consistent contact? 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Can you be a 5 tool prospect, if you can't make consistent contact? 

 

Not sure who you're referencing. But the hit-tool is one of the five tools. So I'd say typically no, but with prospects - and even a guy like Buxton - so much is projection. So, yeah, you can be a five-tool "prospect" even if you don't presently have the tools. You know what I mean?

[Mike Sixel]

Kendall has serious contact issues from what I read.

[Thrylos]

 

 

But according to a source in California, Greene touched 102 mph last week and has demonstrated improved command of his entire four-pitch arsenal.

 

That is some news actually  

 

Not the 102 mph, but "the 4 pitch arsenal".   Last I checked he had the fastball that is a plus pitch, a slurve that is average but he tends to overthrow, and a change up that is horrible.  If he developed a fourth pitch and improved the other 2, he might be an interesting choice...

 

Still plenty of time for the helium to blow off... 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

That is some news actually

 

Not the 102 mph, but "the 4 pitch arsenal".   Last I checked he had the fastball that is a plus pitch, a slurve that is average but he tends to overthrow, and a change up that is horrible.  If he developed a fourth pitch and improved the other 2, he might be an interesting choice...

 

Still plenty of time for the helium to blow off... 

 

I hadn't heard much about his slider previously, but he's been working hard.  It's also February, so pitches don't need to be perfect, just look somewhat (potentially) usable. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Kendall has serious contact issues from what I read.

 

He strikes out some that's for sure. He struggled in limited at-bats on the Cape, but did hit .290 for USA Baseball and .332 for Vandy. (Obviously those are just numbers...) It will be interesting to watch him this year.

[Seth Stohs]

Like I tweeted yesterday, I'm ready for the Twins to take Hunter Greene right now and get started... I can't wait to see his athleticism and arm take over and just see what he can become. 

[Mike Sixel]

I am all over Greene also, though if one of the college pitchers really takes over, that would be cool too. Kendall would have to seriously improve his contact skills for me. 

 

Also, since the Twins are unlikely to ever outbid someone for an ACE, I'm more for the ace. Kendall or another hitter would have to really stand out like Harper or Bryant.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Like I tweeted yesterday, I'm ready for the Twins to take Hunter Greene right now and get started... I can't wait to see his athleticism and arm take over and just see what he can become. 

 

Should be mentioned, too, that Greene is NOT a Boras guy. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Should be mentioned, too, that Greene is NOT a Boras guy. 

 

Triple 'Like'.

 

I wonder if there would ever be a HS arm considered the consensus top pick this early in the year and both the team and the player know going in that he'll be the choice so to prevent injury there is a mutual agreement that he doesn't pitch competitively (strenuously?) but instead only does simulated or side sessions working within a throwing program and with an instructor endorsed by the team?

 

Not that I'm suggesting Greene is that guy, just a hypothetical I was thinking about the other day; an already anointed pick, like if Bryce Harper had been a pitcher or Stephen Strausberg had been a high schooler.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Triple 'Like'.

 

I wonder if there would ever be a HS arm considered the consensus top pick this early in the year and both the team and the player know going in that he'll be the choice so to prevent injury there is a mutual agreement that he doesn't pitch competitively (strenuously?) but instead only does simulated or side sessions working within a throwing program and with an instructor endorsed by the team?

 

Not that I'm suggesting Greene is that guy, just a hypothetical I was thinking about the other day; an already anointed pick, like if Bryce Harper had been a pitcher or Stephen Strausberg had been a high schooler.

 

Rumor has it either a college or HS guy did that a few years ago, can't recall who it was....

 

edit: wasn't a probable number 1, but it was a top pick, like top 5....I'll see if I can find it.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I wonder if there would ever be a HS arm considered the consensus top pick this early in the year and both the team and the player know going in that he'll be the choice so to prevent injury there is a mutual agreement that he doesn't pitch competitively (strenuously?) but instead only does simulated or side sessions working within a throwing program and with an instructor endorsed by the team?

 

I don't think there ever has been. Todd Van Poppel and Josh Beckett are the two most-hyped right-handed pitching prospects that I remember. 

 

I also don't think I'd consider Greene to be the "consensus top pick."  So much projection still...

[gunnarthor]

Remember a few years ago when Tyler Kolek was extremely hyped HS RH pitching prospect?  A lot of rumors that he'd go #1 overall but Houston took Aiken.  Miami took Kolek, who is no longer on top 100 lists, and the White Sox took Rodon who is going to be a pain in the ass for Twins fans for a decade.  Take the college arm.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Remember a few years ago when Tyler Kolek was extremely hyped HS RH pitching prospect?  A lot of rumors that he'd go #1 overall but Houston took Aiken.  Miami took Kolek, who is no longer on top 100 lists, and the White Sox took Rodon who is going to be a pain in the ass for Twins fans for a decade.  Take the college arm.

 

Not a bad call on Kolek. Man, after Rodon didn't go first or second... I was really hoping he'd fall to the Twins. Then the Cubs took some Schwarber guy that wasn't supposed to go Top 10. Nola was my guy from that draft. Hopefully Gordon keeps getting better.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't think there ever has been. Todd Van Poppel and Josh Beckett are the two most-hyped right-handed pitching prospects that I remember. 

 

I also don't think I'd consider Greene to be the "consensus top pick."  So much projection still...

 

I don't think he is either, I thought I was clear on the hypothetical situation. I was just wondering if there happened to be a slam dunk pick if both team and player would agree to preventative measures seeing as how much money is at stake for both parties.

[Lonestar]

Remember when the Mets took Dwight Gooden at 1-5.

[Thrylos]

 

Remember when the Mets took Dwight Gooden at 1-5.

 

And the Twins took the immortal Bryan Oelkers at 1-4...

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

And the Twins took the immortal Bryan Oelkers at 1-4...

 

and now I'm depressed....

[Steve Lein]

If anybody's going to turn into the first right-handed HS pitcher taken at #1 overall, it might be Greene based on what else I see in this draft. But, if there is further advancement shown from any of the college guys (which I would say is likely), I'd wager that changes.

 

Interesting nugget I've found reading up on him: He has Minnesota Twins ties...sort of.

 

Aaron Hicks was one of the mentors/coaches at a youth baseball academy he went too.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Remember a few years ago when Tyler Kolek was extremely hyped HS RH pitching prospect?  A lot of rumors that he'd go #1 overall but Houston took Aiken.  Miami took Kolek, who is no longer on top 100 lists, and the White Sox took Rodon who is going to be a pain in the ass for Twins fans for a decade.  Take the college arm.

 

I seem to remember Kolby Allard being at the top of draft charts at this time (last year?) during his draft as well. 

[twinssouth]

If it's all about projection, then pretty hard to pass on Green. Here's a kid that's already 6'4" and still growing. Hits 102 mph and easily throws 94 to 96 with no effort, yikes. And, has a curve and change up and throws all for strikes. Reminds me of Giolloti (?) from Nats now White Sox that's considered 5th best prospect with more upside and no arm/health issues. Worse case, he's your closer or position player. The Wright kid from Vanderbilt is also intriguing but I really like this Green kid.

[Darius]

If they take anyone else but Greene, I'll react like Brad Pitt in Seven after seeing "what's in the box."

Edited February 7, 2017 by Darius

[drivlikejehu]

There have been plenty of flame-throwing prep right-handers before. If there's a college starter that projects as a near-term, top of the rotation guy, I take him over Greene without hesitation. 

 

[DocBauer]

There have been plenty of flame-throwing prep right-handers before. If there's a college starter that projects as a near-term, top of the rotation guy, I take him over Greene without hesitation.

 

Absolutely agree with this. There is a whole college season to be played and some very interesting arms that could be available to the Twins. And no doubt a college arm with top of the rotation potential would be a "safer" pick than a HS arm, as well as being closer to the majors. But I confess to being a bit leary if that guy isn't already at the very top of the draft boards even before the season starts. Just like milb prospects, the switch can go on at any time. But should the first pick in the draft be the ONE GUY of 3 or 4 that has the best 2017 season? I hope that makes sense.

 

There is still a lot of HS ball to played yet. With Greene's build and obvious overall athleticism, if he really is begining to develop and command his secondary stuff, risk of a HS being the #1 pick be damned, don't you just have to give him really serious consideration?

[drjim]

 

There have been plenty of flame-throwing prep right-handers before. If there's a college starter that projects as a near-term, top of the rotation guy, I take him over Greene without hesitation. 

 

I'd take a bat too.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Jeremy, whoever the twins take at #1 will be a very good prospect. With the way slitting works now, what are the chances that someone who is highly ranked (think top 15) can fall to 35 or 37? It's not like the Twins will have to use their entire slot on whoever they take at #1, right? I know it isn't as large a pool as before, but there has to be some chance of using that slot money to an advantage, right?

[beckmt]

At this time I would take Greene unless during the next 4 months a college pitcher develops to where they are considered a sure #2 with #1 upside.  It is a crap shoot, but talent will win out most of the time.

Other issue I see is the mental side, what is between the ears and how willing the prospect is to do the work and put in the time to become great.

That is something only the scouts will know from talking to the prospect.

[dish]

For what it's worth - Indians 1st round draft picks when Falvey went from Scouting to Ass. Director of Baseball Operations.

 

2010 Drew Pomeranz Left-handed pitcher University of Mississippi
2011 Francisco Lindor Shortstop Montverde Academy
2012 Tyler Naquin Outfielder Texas A&M University
2013 Clint Frazier Outfielder Loganville High School
2014 Bradley Zimmer Outfielder University of San Francisco
2014 Justus Sheffield Left-handed pitcher Tullahoma High School
2014 Mike Papi Outfielder University of Virginia
2015 Brady Aiken Left-handed pitcher IMG Academy
2015 Triston McKenzie Right-handed pitcher Royal Palm Beach High School
2016 Will Benson Outfielder The Westminster Schools
 

2 High School Outfielders

3 College Outfielders

1 High School Infielder

3 High School Pitchers

1 College pitcher 

 

Not sure how much say he had in these picks but the Indians didn't really miss a 1st round pick with the possible exception of Mike Papi in 2014.... and even then that kid has a couple seasons left to turn it around.