KLAW top by position

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW released his top 10 prospects by position today. Twins:

 

Catcher...none

1B.....none

2B....none

SS....Nick Gordon, number 10

3B....none

OF....none

RHP....none

LHP....none

 

sigh.....I think he's been pretty clear, deep, but lacking in high upside

[Oldgoat_MN]

Sadly, this does not particularly surprise me. Our players who appear to have real potential are too far down the leagues to have made much of an impression yet (Javier, Diaz, etc.). 

 

Other than maybe Romero, I don't see any SP that looks like a potential ace.

Hope the 2017 draft goes much better than the 2008 draft went.

[mazeville]

I will say again: The biggest problem the previous front office had was its failure to adequately build its minor league system. 

 

This system should be MUCH better given the high draft picks this team has had in recent years. 

[Mike Sixel]

Romero has to be in the top 15 RHP, I'd guess.....didn't do the math. Jay would be close to the top 10 LHP, given he's on the "just missed list" for the top 100.

[jimmer]

KLAW released his top 10 prospects by position today. Twins:

 

Catcher...none

1B.....none

2B....none

SS....Nick Gordon, number 10

3B....none

OF....none

RHP....none

LHP....none

 

sigh.....I think he's been pretty clear, deep, but lacking in high upside

no surprises.

[Thrylos]

 

Sadly, this does not particularly surprise me. Our players who appear to have real potential are too far down the leagues to have made much of an impression yet (Javier, Diaz, etc.). 

 

Other than maybe Romero, I don't see any SP that looks like a potential ace.

Hope the 2017 draft goes much better than the 2008 draft went.

 

(or the 2007 or the 2006...)

[markos]

 

KLAW released his top 10 prospects by position today. Twins:

 

Catcher...none

1B.....none

2B....none

SS....Nick Gordon, number 10

3B....none

OF....none

RHP....none

LHP....none

 

sigh.....I think he's been pretty clear, deep, but lacking in high upside

This list just reiterates how much of the near-term success of this franchise is dependent on Buxton and Sano (and Kepler/Berrios/Polanco to a lesser extent). It's awfully hard to put together a 90+ win team without having a core of 4-5 players contributing 20+ WAR. Is there anyone in the minors right now that can be penciled in for 4+ WAR in 2019 and beyond? The #1 pick might help, and maybe a future Dozier trade will also help.

[mikelink45]

This is quite accurate and Seth has set us up to expect this with his reports.  It is a real indictment of the previous FO.  To have the high draft choices year after year and still have this report is really sad.  The reinforcements are not on the horizon. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is quite accurate and Seth has set us up to expect this with his reports.  It is a real indictment of the previous FO.  To have the high draft choices year after year and still have this report is really sad.  The reinforcements are not on the horizon. 

 

I'm not a defender of the previous FO.....but there are a couple players that KLAW and others think could crack those lists, if they show something this year. Either they are young (Kiriloff), or have questions that need to be answered (Jay). 

[Seth Stohs]

Based on his rankings, obviously Kohl Stewart and Stephen Gonsalves are close. 

 

Obviously we would all like to see players from every draft popping up on these lists. But we have to be smart enough to realize that Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Polanco and Kepler are no longer on these lists. They were going to drop, and I think a year from now, we'll see more (guys like Javier, Diaz, maybe Blankenhorn, etc.).

 

And, even in 2017, we're likely to see guys like Mejia and Garver and Reed and Hildenberger and maybe Burdi... these guys aren't in Top 100 lists, but they can be solid Major League contributors. 

 

So, lists like Law's (and others will look similar) don't bother or worry me in the least. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Based on his rankings, obviously Kohl Stewart and Stephen Gonsalves are close. 

 

Obviously we would all like to see players from every draft popping up on these lists. But we have to be smart enough to realize that Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Polanco and Kepler are no longer on these lists. They were going to drop, and I think a year from now, we'll see more (guys like Javier, Diaz, maybe Blankenhorn, etc.).

 

And, even in 2017, we're likely to see guys like Mejia and Garver and Reed and Hildenberger and maybe Burdi... these guys aren't in Top 100 lists, but they can be solid Major League contributors. 

 

So, lists like Law's (and others will look similar) don't bother or worry me in the least. 

 

People are talking about the quality of the draft, and you keep mentioning three guys signed as international FAs.....

 

Teams with lots of players above the TWins have graduated great players too....the Twins aren't the only ones to graduate players to the majors.

 

[jimmer]

People are talking about the quality of the draft, and you keep mentioning three guys signed as international FAs.....

 

Teams with lots of players above the TWins have graduated great players too....the Twins aren't the only ones to graduate players to the majors.

and our guys that have been promoted havent exactly lit things up.

[Mike Sixel]

 

and our guys that have been promoted havent exactly lit things up.

 

I think Sano will be in the top 20-30 players in baseball this year. I think Berrios will be just below a league average SP among qualified pitchers (even if they hold him back, and he doesn't qualify). I think Kepler will be ok, but is a bit from being above average. I like Buxton to play better defense, I have literally no idea what to expect on offense. 

[ThejacKmp]

The only ones that worry me are the pitching ones. The Twins don't need to have big position player prospects in the minors right now - the guys who will determine the next 5-7 years of Twins hitting are already in the majors. The Twins have lots of nice position player talents to fill in any gaps and provide depth.

 

I do worry about the lack of ace-upside pitching. It's why that Dozier trade was a good turn-down for the Twins. JDL wasn't really a strong likelihood for a #1. Will the Twins maybe regret not dealing Doze if he swoons beginning of the year? Yeah, maybe. But the best path to a #1 comes from the draft (years away) or trading Dozier so holding out was smart.

[Seth Stohs]

 

People are talking about the quality of the draft, and you keep mentioning three guys signed as international FAs.....

 

Teams with lots of players above the TWins have graduated great players too....the Twins aren't the only ones to graduate players to the majors.

 

Your original post wasn't about the draft. It was about one guy's top tens by position.

 

I'm not saying the Twins prospect ranking should be any higher than it is. But there's no reason for concern... especially now that there have been changes.

[bird]

 

People are talking about the quality of the draft, and you keep mentioning three guys signed as international FAs.....

 

Teams with lots of players above the TWins have graduated great players too....the Twins aren't the only ones to graduate players to the majors.

 

 

KLAW's list includes both IFA's and drafted prospects. That's not to minimize the reality, which is that, at the present time, there are few APPARENT really high-end prospects ready to supplement the talent that's just being initiated into MLB.

 

I think it's possible to point out that Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, and maybe one or two others were high on these lists not long ago without discounting this.

 

I also think it's fair to point out that maybe things aren't quite as dire as a stark look at the list might suggest. One would do this by pointing to just missed prospects like Jay, Gonsalves, and Stewart. And maybe for some of us the edge is taken off because we choose not to ignore, without being Pollyanna about it, that prospects like Kiriloff, Javier, Romero and Diaz might be a year away from making the list. Or that there are a few fallen angels who still have at least a chance of coming through, like Thorpe and Burdi. The list itself doesn't change by mentioning that players who never make these lists ultimately contribute for their teams, but I think it's fair to acknowledge that the Twins have no shortage of these kinds of guys, such as Chargois, Pressly, Duffey, etc. But the list can change quickly, and it very well could with a Dozier trade and with the 2017 draft. 

 

So, while the list is ugly, it's not an indication of hopelessness. To me, it points to how important it is for the current core of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Polanco, to become exceptional players.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Your original post wasn't about the draft. It was about one guy's top tens by position.

 

I'm not saying the Twins prospect ranking should be any higher than it is. But there's no reason for concern... especially now that there have been changes.

 

Got it, I thought you were responding to people criticizing the draft. Apologies. KLAW agrees with you, as I said, deep, but not enough high end upside talent. I'd assume their first pick makes the top 50, maybe higher, easily.

[Mike Sixel]

 

KLAW's list includes both IFA's and drafted prospects. That's not to minimize the reality, which is that, at the present time, there are few APPARENT really high-end prospects ready to supplement the talent that's just being initiated into MLB.

 

I think it's possible to point out that Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, and maybe one or two others were high on these lists not long ago without discounting this.

 

I also think it's fair to point out that maybe things aren't quite as dire as a stark look at the list might suggest. One would do this by pointing to just missed prospects like Jay, Gonsalves, and Stewart. And maybe for some of us the edge is taken off because we choose not to ignore, without being Pollyanna about it, that prospects like Kiriloff, Javier, Romero and Diaz might be a year away from making the list. Or that there are a few fallen angels who still have at least a chance of coming through, like Thorpe and Burdi. The list itself doesn't change by mentioning that players who never make these lists ultimately contribute for their teams, but I think it's fair to acknowledge that the Twins have no shortage of these kinds of guys, such as Chargois, Pressly, Duffey, etc. But the list can change quickly, and it very well could with a Dozier trade and with the 2017 draft. 

 

So, while the list is ugly, it's not an indication of hopelessness. To me, it points to how important it is for the current core of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Polanco, to become exceptional players.

 

I did post about the just missed guys......and about the young players. I did both of those things.....

 

As for the other part, I just posted I misunderstood Seth's point....

[goulik]

Law of averages would say that you only have 2-3 guys (or somewhere around 2 and 2/3 to be more precise) on these lists for any one team. We have one so we are one and 2/3rds players under average? Im not too bothered by that especially if next year we have 3-4 and /or last year we had more than our share. 

[Lefty74]

As noted by many this is on the previous FO and in particular the scouting team. I don't think Falvey/Levine have changed the scouting team to any significant degree. That concerns me a lot as scouting is pick and shovel work with lots of subjectivity. Best predictor of the future is the past and I was hoping for more change in this critical function. I understand that Falvey/Levine will most likely bring some advanced tools but it is hard to believe how poorly we have drafted--in particular pitchers--over the last 10+ years. I don't think new tools/metrics alone solve this.

[bird]

 

I will say again: The biggest problem the previous front office had was its failure to adequately build its minor league system. 

 

This system should be MUCH better given the high draft picks this team has had in recent years. 

 

I guess I WISH that was their biggest failing, but it's not even a failing. Even with all the graduations and their refusal to cheat on the IFA front, their minor league pipeline is still viewed favorably by the experts, #11 ranking by KLAW for example.

 

Of the five recent high draft choices, one is ineligible for the list but was high on the list in the past(Buxton), one is ON the list among a group of shortstops that might be as talented a collection as we've seen in MLB's entire history (Gordon). Two probably just missed. Kiriloff was the 4th outfielder chosen in the 2016 draft. His exclusion after his first pro season is hardly an indictment. Jay, converting from relief and dealing with injury, is hardly a clear example of failure. How many pitchers from his draft class are on the list? Stewart is a disappointment, welcome to the experience every team has once in awhile.

 

But I also think that having fewer than about 3-4 names on a list like this is not a good sign.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Got it, I thought you were responding to people criticizing the draft. Apologies. KLAW agrees with you, as I said, deep, but not enough high end upside talent. I'd assume their first pick makes the top 50, maybe higher, easily.

 

I think Moniak was at like #30 on MLB's list. Not sure where he was on Law's. But I know Hunter Greene would be higher than that. Not sure about the pitchers. 

[nicksaviking]

The list is depressing, but this team is in a prospect lull right now, mostly because they've promoted so many recently. They'll get more with the high draft picks and hopefully Dozier/Santana trades.

 

Still, perhaps the Twins biggest issue is the bullpen and Klaw and nearly every other prognosticator don't typically rank relief arms. The Twins have several of those who might make impacts soon.

[amjgt]

 

Sadly, this does not particularly surprise me. Our players who appear to have real potential are too far down the leagues to have made much of an impression yet (Javier, Diaz, etc.). 

 

Other than maybe Romero, I don't see any SP that looks like a potential ace.

Hope the 2017 draft goes much better than the 2008 draft went.

 

We drafted George Springer that year!

[goulik]

 

But I also think that having fewer than about 3-4 names on a list like this is not a good sign.

This is unrealistic. There are 8 positions listed lumping all the OF as one and having Pitchers in SP or RP roles. 8x10 is 80. 80/30 is 2 and 2/3. One is disappointing but 2-3 is the expected range.

 

Top 100 list would be 3-4...

 

[mikelink45]

 

I'm not a defender of the previous FO.....but there are a couple players that KLAW and others think could crack those lists, if they show something this year. Either they are young (Kiriloff), or have questions that need to be answered (Jay). 

Let's hope so.  It seems like other first round picks get more love than ours has.  What is Kiriloff projecting to be?  Does he have the appeal that other number ones get?  I have not seen it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Let's hope so.  It seems like other first round picks get more love than ours has.  What is Kiriloff projecting to be?  Does he have the appeal that other number ones get?  I have not seen it.

 

KLAW really likes him a lot, and said if he hits in A ball, he'll jump well up the list.....

[mazeville]

 

I guess I WISH that was their biggest failing, but it's not even a failing. Even with all the graduations and their refusal to cheat on the IFA front, their minor league pipeline is still viewed favorably by the experts, #11 ranking by KLAW for example.

 

Of the five recent high draft choices, one is ineligible for the list but was high on the list in the past(Buxton), one is ON the list among a group of shortstops that might be as talented a collection as we've seen in MLB's entire history (Gordon). Two probably just missed. Kiriloff was the 4th outfielder chosen in the 2016 draft. His exclusion after his first pro season is hardly an indictment. Jay, converting from relief and dealing with injury, is hardly a clear example of failure. How many pitchers from his draft class are on the list? Stewart is a disappointment, welcome to the experience every team has once in awhile.

 

But I also think that having fewer than about 3-4 names on a list like this is not a good sign.

 

It's definitely a failing. This team has not drafted well - the record you indicate is not great, based on where they drafted. The "misses" of which you speak were high draft picks - Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay -- that teams just should not miss. (I still think Buxton will be a star; Kiriloff was an excellent pick and Gordon is OK, but not great based on where he was picked).

 

They've also done precious little beyond that to bolster the farm system during that five-year period. They've done little to sign young potential stars from places like Cuba that could bolster their farm system further, even though the Twins have underspent on their roster despite enjoying a brand new stadium during that period. 

 

This team did very little, in fact, to make trades to bolster their farm system until Rob Antony took over. And even then the team didn't trade arguably its most tradable asset during last year's trade deadline in Ervin Santana. 

 

The draft is only one aspect of how teams build a farm system and in the past few years the Twins have not done enough, given their poor performance on the field, to build that system. So yes, it was their biggest failure (with the possible exception of Terry Ryan's failure to build up the front office staff).

[JustinCB]

 

Sadly, this does not particularly surprise me. Our players who appear to have real potential are too far down the leagues to have made much of an impression yet (Javier, Diaz, etc.). 

 

Other than maybe Romero, I don't see any SP that looks like a potential ace.

Hope the 2017 draft goes much better than the 2008 draft went.

 

I vaguely remember the Kolton Wong pick but wow, I have no recollection of them drafting George Springer.  Shoulda given him all that Aaron Hicks money.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I vaguely remember the Kolton Wong pick but wow, I have no recollection of them drafting George Springer.  Shoulda given him all that Aaron Hicks money.

 

I suspect the Twins would have given them enough to sign had they been certain how good they would one day be.