Article: Recency Bias

[Vanimal46]

 

What's the point of those signings for the Twins? The small likelihood of any of those guys being good enough to get any sort of return is not worth them taking spots from Berrios, May, or Mejia.

The point is to improve the rotation. Which was very, very bad last season. 

[jimmer]

There is a difference between a GM SAYING a pitcher will get a legitimate shot for a rotation spot and the pitcher actually getting a legitimate shot. Only need to look to last offseason to see that. Even Trevor May knew he wasnt going to be given a fair shot last year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Alexi Rameriz,  Brandon Morrow,  Josh Johnson, Benoit, Orlando Hudson. Man they sure made San Diego better. Shields was the only big name free agent to sign in San Diego in the last 10 years.  Scrap heap, over the hill, reclamation projects  similar to what Ryan signed.  So what is the point of claiming San Diego can sign free agents? 

 

the post said FAs won't sign with bad teams.....that was what the post said. We have seen that isn't true, heck, just a few short years ago, the Cubs were bad (and now are WS champs.....), and FAs signed with them that following year.

 

The post wasn't about if the team got better, the post clearly said FAs don't sign with bad teams. Which, given that they do every year, is clearly not true.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Nope, no one is suggesting making moves just to make moves. Not. One. Person.

 

I understand this... I think.  But when I read your posts in particular, it really comes across that way. That could very well be me, but I'm seeing a lot of disappointment on what was done (or not done) without a whole lot of lip service to what could actually have been done.  It sure looks like making moves for the sake of making moves, because when you look at what moves were there to be made, there really weren't much.

 

They went out and got a catcher.  I'm not a huge fan of Castro, but he was needed and could actually work out quite well given the natural platoon with Murphy or Garver.

 

They tried to trade Dozier. We all agreed (and they did too) that Dozier should be traded for SP help, and from the looks of it, that would have been JDL and not much else.

 

There were no SP FAs worth getting, though moving May back into that role is the right answer.

 

I agree they could (and may still) get help in the pen, though keep in mind that each reliever signed is going to block one of Chargois, Melotakis, or Hildenberger (and by later this year possibly Burdi and Reed too).  I don't think it would be smart to go north with 3 rookies in the pen, but making sure you have the space for some of them is (like it or not) a good idea.

 

The reality is that the core is there now on the offense.  Yes, defense needs improving, no arguments there, but that is something you're going to have to live with if you want to roll with Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, and Sano. None of these guys are realistically going anywhere, and all need to play.  But at least we won't see Sano in RF on any sort of consistent basis.

 

[d-mac]

 

I think it's strange how much more hostility there is to the new leadership, in comparison to what it was with the old leadership that ran the organization into the ground. The old leadership was defended vigorously after each incompetent, incomprehensible move . . . the new leadership is criticized for non-moves that are either fictional or marginal in relevance. I find the dichotomy puzzling.

 

In fairness, a lot of us doing that were actually critical of the previous regime (I was in that camp starting in 2012) are criticising the current regime for their lack of activity. They haven't done enough to wash away the foul stench of the previous regime. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I agree they could (and may still) get help in the pen, though keep in mind that each reliever signed is going to block one of Chargois, Melotakis, or Hildenberger (and by later this year possibly Burdi and Reed too).  I don't think it would be smart to go north with 3 rookies in the pen, but making sure you have the space for some of them is (like it or not) a good idea.

I don't believe that relievers are ever truly "blocked" in the minors. Unless every single reliever is pitching lights out, 1.00 ERA 1.00 FIP ball, there's always an opening in a bullpen. 

As we saw last year, Jepsen, Perkins, and Fien turned into pumpkins. This year it could be anyone turning into a pumpkin. There's room to sign 1 or more bullpen arms. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I understand this... I think.  But when I read your posts in particular, it really comes across that way. That could very well be me, but I'm seeing a lot of disappointment on what was done (or not done) without a whole lot of lip service to what could actually have been done.  It sure looks like making moves for the sake of making moves, because when you look at what moves were there to be made, there really weren't much.

 

They went out and got a catcher.  I'm not a huge fan of Castro, but he was needed and could actually work out quite well given the natural platoon with Murphy or Garver.

 

They tried to trade Dozier. We all agreed (and they did too) that Dozier should be traded for SP help, and from the looks of it, that would have been JDL and not much else.

 

There were no SP FAs worth getting, though moving May back into that role is the right answer.

 

I agree they could (and may still) get help in the pen, though keep in mind that each reliever signed is going to block one of Chargois, Melotakis, or Hildenberger (and by later this year possibly Burdi and Reed too).  I don't think it would be smart to go north with 3 rookies in the pen, but making sure you have the space for some of them is (like it or not) a good idea.

 

The reality is that the core is there now on the offense.  Yes, defense needs improving, no arguments there, but that is something you're going to have to live with if you want to roll with Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, and Sano. None of these guys are realistically going anywhere, and all need to play.  But at least we won't see Sano in RF on any sort of consistent basis.

 

One can be disappointed in an outcome, even if that outcome makes sense. Is that hard to understand?

 

I expected a trade. Didn't happen. Disappointed.

I expected 1-2 RPs to be signed. Didn't happen so far. Disappointed.

I thought they might sign a flyer SP, not sure how I feel about this not happening frankly.

I hoped Molitor would be replaced, didn't expect it at all. Disappointed.

 

Now, just because it may have been a good idea to keep Dozier, given the offers....doesn't mean one can't be disappointed that it didn't happen. I really don't know how to make that more clear.

[nicksaviking]

 

There is a difference between a GM SAYING a pitcher will get a legitimate shot for a rotation spot and the pitcher actually getting a legitimate shot. Only need to look to last offseason to see that. Even Trevor May knew he wasnt going to be given a fair shot last year.

 

That was the last front office, seems unfair to hang that on the new guys. Even Trevor thinks he's going to start this year.

[wsnydes]

 

I understand this... I think.  But when I read your posts in particular, it really comes across that way. That could very well be me, but I'm seeing a lot of disappointment on what was done (or not done) without a whole lot of lip service to what could actually have been done.  It sure looks like making moves for the sake of making moves, because when you look at what moves were there to be made, there really weren't much.

 

 

 

One can be disappointed in an outcome, even if that outcome makes sense. Is that hard to understand?

 

I expected a trade. Didn't happen. Disappointed.

I expected 1-2 RPs to be signed. Didn't happen so far. Disappointed.

I thought they might sign a flyer SP, not sure how I feel about this not happening frankly.

I hoped Molitor would be replaced, didn't expect it at all. Disappointed.

 

Now, just because it may have been a good idea to keep Dozier, given the offers....doesn't mean one can't be disappointed that it didn't happen. I really don't know how to make that more clear.

I like how you put this Mike.  

 

I expected a Dozier trade to give a bump to the rotation and clear a logjam at 2B.  Regardless of how wise it was to walk away, it didn't happen.  That is disappointing.

 

They got a catcher.  Not disappointing!  

 

Sign a FA or two for the bullpen.  Hasn't happened yet.  Disappointed so far.  

 

I'm also disappointed that Molitor is still around.

 

That's pretty much all that I was expecting this offseason.  So you can see why I'm disappointed.

Edited February 1, 2017 by wsnydes

[bluechipper]

 

The point is to improve the rotation. Which was very, very bad last season. 

Well Anderson and Chavez combined for 3 starts last season, and Holland had a 4.95 ERA in 20 starts. I'll pass on mediocre at best 30 year old pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well Anderson and Chavez combined for 3 starts last season, and Holland had a 4.95 ERA in 20 starts. I'll pass on mediocre at best 30 year old pitchers.

 

that's a fair stance. If they are really bad this year, and don't sign any FAs next year can I be disappointed?

[bluechipper]

 

that's a fair stance. If they are really bad this year, and don't sign any FAs next year can I be disappointed?

Sure, if there are any free agents worth signing next year.

[DaveW]

 

Well Anderson and Chavez combined for 3 starts last season, and Holland had a 4.95 ERA in 20 starts. I'll pass on mediocre at best 30 year old pitchers.

Ditto, but then again, why did we just waste a bunch of money and starts on Santiago? Who was terrible in Minnesota last year? It's like we continue this stupid cycle of over paying for mediocrity and being afraid of actually making a meaningful "splash"

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

 I appreciate the call for an optimistic chord, but the reality is that with the start of the spring training being a couple of weeks away, the stark reality is that the new management has not had a successful off-season.  There are very few high points on which to have hope.  Almost a hundred RBI between Plouffe and Suzuki probably won't be fully replaced.  Reduced run production and below average pitching is not the recipe on which I was hoping to start the season.  I am sure the new management is better than the old management but at this point nobody can tell if it is even a reasonable improvement.  At least the timberwolves have potential stars.  I can't wait until this fall! Go Vikes!

 

I fully expect Castro, Sano (playing FT at 3B) and Rosario (playing FT in the outfield, in place of Sano) will help fill those RBIs. 

 

It's not rocket science. When two players leave, two more come in. And I believe the guys coming in will do better then those they replaced. 

 

What can I say - I'm an eternal optimist.

 

[goulik]

 

One can be disappointed in an outcome, even if that outcome makes sense. Is that hard to understand?

 

I expected a trade. Didn't happen. Disappointed.

I expected 1-2 RPs to be signed. Didn't happen so far. Disappointed.

I thought they might sign a flyer SP, not sure how I feel about this not happening frankly.

I hoped Molitor would be replaced, didn't expect it at all. Disappointed.

 

Now, just because it may have been a good idea to keep Dozier, given the offers....doesn't mean one can't be disappointed that it didn't happen. I really don't know how to make that more clear.

I completely get this. I am disappointed but have nothing specific I can point to and say "that should have been different". I am actually really big on our new catcher signing hoping a better receiver can be the on field pitching coach these young pitchers need.

 

I wanted a SS signed. ANYONE that could be a defensive upgrade. 

 

I REALLY hoped they did not sign one of the free agent SP's. We have enough mid-rotation, veteran SP's. I'm glad that did not happen.

 

I hoped Santana and/or Dozier could be flipped for High End MiLB SP talent. I didn't need/want MLB ready but it needed to be a fair trade for a potential 1-2 SP plus other prospects.

 

I wanted a better 4th/5th outfielder signed. I guess that could have happened but I don't know what $ numbers were offered and rejected.

 

Ok, heres the move I AM disappointed in, DSan needs to be cut loose. IF he makes the 25 man roster.... I don't even know what to say about that.... Just holy wow, he's still here?

 

So, I couldn't say a lot of things should have been different but it was disappointing especially after the promising start of a quick Catcher signing and a couple of necessary cuts.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I seem to recall the new front office stating relatively bluntly that wholesale changes will not happen overnight.  Most people I think assumed they meant in regards to firing and hiring new people within the front office.  But I think the statement can be blanketed to cover the on-field staff and players as well.  They didn't come here to fix everything prior to spring training of this year, they have time.  A Dozier trade would have been nice, but they apparently didn't get what they thought was necessary.  Maybe a scorching 1st half for Dozier ups the price people are willing to pay for him.  Either way just because the team hasn't built the future for 2018-2019 yet doesn't mean they can't still or won't.  

 

Actually, I think this team is built for 2018 and beyond.  By then, they'll have Nick Gordon at SS, and Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero in the rotation. They just need some good relief pitchers (we have a few, and I expect Chargois and Stewart to be among them.

 

Yes, I am optimistic for 2018 – and even for 2017. I think people will like Justin Haley, and yes, he'll be in the rotation this year.

 

People complain that the FO hasn't done enough to improve the team. But let's face it - there were few good starters to sign, the market for Dozier was less than expected, and there's still time to sign a reliever or two. 

 

I fully expect Dozier to be on this team in 2018, when they win the division!

 

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

When it comes to current pitching, IMO without a doubt the Twins are the worst team in baseball when talking from a talent standpoint.

So Dave: Who would you keep among the present Twins? Who would you release or trade? Who would you acquire – and don't refer to the Dodgers and the Dozier deal. It fell through. What could the Twins realistically do?

[Mr. Brooks]

This was not a defense of their offseason decision-making. The point was that regardless of what you think about their moves (or lack thereof) there is plenty of reason to expect significant W/L improvement. 100 losses is not a fair baseline expectation.

 

 

It's not a straw man. The comment I was responding to asked why the team would make a change in leadership if there wasn't a belief that a new regime could come in and immediately make personnel moves that would shift the needle. And the answer is that there's a lot more to this restructuring than making acquisitions aimed at winning five more games in 2017.

I misunderstood your post when I responded why fire Ryan.

I read it to mean that long term improvement was going to have to come from the players we already have. I didn't realize you were only referring to this season.

 

I still think there were moves to be made for 2018 and beyond that were not made, namely trading Dozier and possibly Santana, as well as going upside instead of safe in the Rule 5.

But, if using the first year as an evaluation year is part of a plan then I'll be patient and see how it works out down the road.

[bluechipper]

 

Ditto, but then again, why did we just waste a bunch of money and starts on Santiago? Who was terrible in Minnesota last year? It's like we continue this stupid cycle of over paying for mediocrity and being afraid of actually making a meaningful "splash"

Yeah it seems like Santiago is following in the footsteps of Tommy Milone and Scott Diamond. He's better than those two though, and someone would've probably signed him to a similar amount if the Twins let him go.

 

Hopefully he doesn't have a long leash if he's got a high-4 ERA a month or so into the season.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah it seems like Santiago is following in the footsteps of Tommy Milone and Scott Diamond. He's better than those two though, and someone would've probably signed him to a similar amount if the Twins let him go.

 

Hopefully he doesn't have a long leash if he's got a high-4 ERA a month or so into the season.

The Twins could have traded him. He should have some value if he'd get the same or more salary on the open market.

[bluechipper]

 

The Twins could have traded him. He should have some value if he'd get the same or more salary on the open market.

I can't see many teams wanting to pay $8M AND give up a worthwhile prospect for a backend starter.

[DaveW]

So Dave: Who would you keep among the present Twins? Who would you release or trade? Who would you acquire – and don't refer to the Dodgers and the Dozier deal. It fell through. What could the Twins realistically do?

I'd keep Sano, Buxton and Berrios and I would look to trade anyone else in order to acquire high upside pitching.

 

Would have to be blown away to trade Kepler

 

Would do all I could to trade: Rosario, Santana, Santiago, Kintzler, Escobar etc

 

If Hughes "comes back" he's traded as well, if Gibson starts off decent, he's on the block.

If Perkins comes back healthy, as much as he is my favorite player he should be moved as well.

 

This team is a couple years away, there is zero reason to keep anyone at this point that won't contribute it 2019 and later.

Edited February 1, 2017 by DaveW

[DaveW]

I can't see many teams wanting to pay $8M AND give up a worthwhile prospect for a backend starter.

Ideally he can start out strong and the Twins can flip him, I just don't see it though, not with this current defense.

[DaveW]

I fully expect Castro, Sano (playing FT at 3B) and Rosario (playing FT in the outfield, in place of Sano) will help fill those RBIs.

 

It's not rocket science. When two players leave, two more come in. And I believe the guys coming in will do better then those they replaced.

 

What can I say - I'm an eternal optimist.

Yes Sano will give us better results at 3rd then Plouffe...but now we have a ton of question marks at DH.

 

Park was a disaster, Vargas has a 103 career OPS+

 

Not good.

[old nurse]

 

the post said FAs won't sign with bad teams.....that was what the post said. We have seen that isn't true, heck, just a few short years ago, the Cubs were bad (and now are WS champs.....), and FAs signed with them that following year.

 

The post wasn't about if the team got better, the post clearly said FAs don't sign with bad teams. Which, given that they do every year, is clearly not true.

When people complain that free agents won't sign here, they are not talking about the Josh Johnsons et al. . As far as signing with the Cubs, there are far different circumstances than the Twins for that organization that the players can recognize but many fans do not. 120 million more in revenue will do that.

 

[jimmer]

Woe is we.

Edited February 1, 2017 by jimmer

[Mike Sixel]

 

When people complain that free agents won't sign here, they are not talking about the Josh Johnsons et al. . As far as signing with the Cubs, there are far different circumstances than the Twins for that organization that the players can recognize but many fans do not. 120 million more in revenue will do that.

 

so they can't sign good FAs ever, or just when they are bad? 

[old nurse]

 

I can't see many teams wanting to pay $8M AND give up a worthwhile prospect for a backend starter.

A career ERA under 4 is a backend starter?   2011-2015 dis not happen?

 

 

[jimmer]

 

so they can't sign good FAs ever, or just when they are bad? 

No see, when we're good, it's like, 'We don't need to do too much because we're already good'.  

When we're bad it's ' No one wants to come here'

 

Then there's the times when 'it's a horrible FA market'.

Amazingly though, if/when the FA market becomes good that's when it's, 'watch, we'll spend on really good FAs' (Until we don't because 'we cant compete with the big bads'.)

 

Or, to answer the part of your question in bold in a more direct fashion: No, they can't.

 

Though now, with a new FO, I'm sure that will change...

Edited February 1, 2017 by jimmer

[bluechipper]

 

A career ERA under 4 is a backend starter?   2011-2015 dis not happen?

I feel pretty comfortable calling Hector Santiago a backend starter.