Article: Recency Bias

[Mike Sixel]

 

Literally every projection I've seen sees this as a mid- to upper-70s win team. The industry believes in this talent. I believe in the talent. Time to unlock it. 

 

then why fire Terry, if there are no real issues?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Are you sure those guys qualify as high upside?

 

I said "higher", to denote that you have more chance of gaining some upside from them than, say, Boone Logan. You have a better chance to buy relatively low (with cash) and possibly sell high.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Few reasons for hope? The lineup will have 2 recent top 10 prospects, a top 50 prospect, and a top 100 prospect. The staff could have guys like May, Berrios, and Mejia in it.

 

The lineup will be fine and potentially exciting. We all know this.

 

But if the extent of our rotation's improvement is staked on May, Berrios, and Mejia then that solidifies why some of us don't see big improvement coming this season. We'd be extremely fortunate if more than one of those players held down a 4.50 ERA all year. It's more likely that group will struggle a lot this year with Berrios still figuring out his struggles, Mejia needing to see if he can make the jump, and May needing to re-acclimate to starting while staying healthy. These guys obviously need to pitch a lot and show us what we have in them. But I'm not going to delude myself into believing this pitching staff won't be a dreadfully annoying dead weight around our neck all year. Hopefully they get long auditions to work things out during another rebuilding/development year and we aren't still wondering what we have in 2018 with them.

 

I wasn't super disappointed by the offseason since there weren't many options out there that made sense. I kind of hoped the front office had some creative ideas up their sleeve to surprise us, but I can't fault them for what wasn't there. It is what it is. Nick mostly summed up my thoughts on that a few posts ago.

[DaveW]

I'm not sure how anyone can say the lineup will be fine.

 

Sano and Dozier are the only two who have a very good chance to be above average at the dish. I was impressed with Kepler last year, but he only had a 98 OPS+, which is well below average for a corner OF. So those three I feel "ok" with

 

The rest?

 

Lots of question marks up and down the roster.

 

I certainly don't think everyone knows it will be fine...

Edited February 1, 2017 by DaveW

[wsnydes]

 

If the Twins had a bunch of veteran trade chips and were still bad, then yeah you should make some moves. The twins have basically 2 trade chips. No one needs a second baseman and Santana is their only reliable starter, so making a whole bunch of moves isn't all that realistic.

I don't think anyone is clamoring for a "whole bunch of moves".  To date, they've made one meaningful addition to the major league roster.  The bullpen remains untouched and the two trade pieces they do have remain on the roster.  I'm not suggesting they make deals for the sake of making deals, but there have been moves to be made that have not in FA.  I suspect some bullpen arms will be brought in eventually, but even from someone not expecting much, this offseason has been disappointing.  Status quo is not something a 103 loss team should be doing even if they believe that they will have improvement from within.  I don't think it unreasonable to expect more than one move to bolster the emerging talent that is on this team.

[bird]

 

For better or worse the new FO has hitched their wagon to this idea.  From their Twinsfest comments they think they have a pretty good team here that vastly underperformed.

 

That's a dicey belief to hitch your wagon to.  It may end up defining their stay here one way or the other.

 

I, for one, would've liked to see more done this offseason to add assets to the bullpen.  I think that could loom large.

 

I think it's fair to say this. They've also said they haven't set the roster yet. I'm hoping for a bullpen move. I keep reading statements that the Twins are the "worst team" in baseball. Talent-wise, I don't buy this. Apparently, neither do the Twins.

 

There are realistic and advisable things a GM can do to improve talent in an effort to improve the record. There are ill-advised and/or unrealistic ideas presented on TD all the time, like trading Dozier for players that were not ever going to be packaged in a trade for him (unrealistic) or for DeLeon straight up (ill-advised). If Falvey does nothing to change the BP roster, I'll be critical of that non-move.

 

I agree with Nick. A slightly better BP via addition would help, as will Castro. After that, I personally attributed a lot of the underperformance to Molitor's subpar managing, some very key performance disappointments, some caused by injury, others not so explainable, and some bad luck.

 

I for one am happy that Falvey believes the talent is vastly better than last year's record.

 

 

 

[DaveW]

When it comes to current pitching, IMO without a doubt the Twins are the worst team in baseball when talking from a talent standpoint.

[bluechipper]

I said "higher", to denote that you have more chance of gaining some upside from them than, say, Boone Logan. You have a better chance to buy relatively low (with cash) and possibly sell high.

It seems like a better bet to sign guys to minor league contracts, like Burton or Abad for example, than give $5M or whatever to guys perceived to be higher upside.

[bird]

 

then why fire Terry, if there are no real issues?

 

For dozens of reasons other than a belief that you've isolated the issue by declaring there to be a dearth of talent.

[David HK]

Well, I don't mean to harp, but truly, given the field managerial performance the last couple of years, on a 100+ loss team- can you really expect things to be that much better?  The way Molly gacked up handling of the young players, those lineups that seemed pulled out of a crazy hat, the bizarre in-game decisions--  I think they should have cleaned out the dugout first.

[Riverbrian]

Personally... I wish Mr. Pohlad would have listened to Nick Nelson last year when he posted back in May? Nick suggested the idea to hire a POBO and it should have been done ASAP after determining that you were going to make a change.  

 

Because by waiting... New POBO and GM are brought on board after the world series and the off season is here before they have their socks put away in a drawer. 

 

Assess the operations... the players... Whose scouting reports do you trust and use? Do yo have a new way of doing things? If you do... a head start window was passed by when they delayed the hiring of Falvey or any other POBO. 

 

When you consider the timeline of the hiring and the internal groundwork that has to be put in place. Falvey and Levine have very little choice but to listen to the same advocates who got us where we are right now... Molitor... Antony... the Western Regional Scout and the traveling secretary are still in the building.  

 

This off-season was destined to be a disappointment because Pohlad and St. Peter decided that it could wait until the end of the season. 

 

WIth that said... GO GET SOME RELIEVERS... I'll take Blanton and Smith please. 

 

 

[old nurse]

 

Yeah, this excuse of "FA won't sign with losing teams" is a falsehood. Good players sign with bad teams all the time!
Padres and Mariners have been doing it for years
 

Yup, those FA signings sure made the Padres better.

[Taildragger8791]

 

I'm not sure how anyone can say the lineup will be fine.

Sano and Dozier are the only two who have a very good chance to be above average at the dish. I was impressed with Kepler last year, but he only had a 98 OPS+, which is well below average for a corner OF. So those three I feel "ok" with

The rest?

Lots of question marks up and down the roster.

I certainly don't think everyone knows it will be fine...

 

I think Polanco will be fine. And it's not like you're going to bump Buxton. Kepler did well for a young rookie. There's a lot of potential for good performances there. Mauer isn't a black hole, even if he is underwhelming for a first basemen. He should be moved down the lineup though.

 

LF, 1B, and DH are three suspect spots which I wish we'd done more to bolster. Thankfully, they are also the easiest to upgrade in any given offseason so I seriously hope for those to be addressed before 2018. Catcher is a black hole, but that's not a simple fix for any team.

 

There's a good chance this team approaches top 10 in run production. I'm okay with that improvement for 2017. By 2018 they should be well within the top 10. Hopefully it isn't wasted by bottom 3 pitching again.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yup, those FA signings sure made the Padres better.

 

That wasn't the point at all, was it?

[old nurse]

 

The problem as I see it was that there was little to do on the position player side. Catcher was the only place where there was a clear need where FA had a clear upgrade. Everywhere else is manned by people that need repetition. Like it or not, that's what it is. On the SP side, where the need was clearest, there were no clear upgrades in FA.  Again, that's what it is... these guys have to take some steps forward. I don't like the odds, but Nick is right that a ton of things went wrong last year.  You cannot discount that.

They need to get to and/or catch the ball. Batting is fine.  The differential between ERA and other metrics say that  their fielding may be worse than their pitching

 

[drivlikejehu]

So, what exactly should the Twins have done differently - that we know was under their control (e.g., not trading Dozier for a fair return)? 

 

What I've read so far is that they should have signed a reliever with possible trade deadline value. OK, I don't necessarily disagree, but last year only a quarter of players signed to such deals were traded, and none for a legit prospect.

 

That is not enough of a variance to justify the complaints. There needs to be more - a lot more - that the Twins clearly <a> could have and <b> should have done. What are those things?

Edited February 1, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[Vanimal46]

 

If the Twins had a bunch of veteran trade chips and were still bad, then yeah you should make some moves. The twins have basically 2 trade chips. No one needs a second baseman and Santana is their only reliable starter, so making a whole bunch of moves isn't all that realistic.

 

Making more than 1 major league signing should have been realistic. The Braves had little veteran trade chips and still managed to make 3 trades and multiple FA signings.... The Brewers made more than 1 signing and traded players... It's just not normal to stand pat following up from a bad season. 

[nicksaviking]

 

They've also signed Koji Uehara and traded for Davis to bolster the bullpen.  They've signed Brett Anderson to compete for their rotation (if he can stay on the field).  They've added plenty of organizational depth as well.  That's more than the Twins have done.  

 

I'm not trying to compare the Cubs to the Twins, I'm simply trying to point out that the team that won the World Series isn't standing pat, so why is a team that finished on the complete opposite end of the spectrum doing so?  Its meant as a general statement, nothing else.  Even for those of us that have some patience, that's a pretty tough sell.

 

Well the Cubs were in the same position as the Twins not too long ago, however they hardly did anything in 2013 after losing 101 games in 2012. They made one big free agent splash in Edwin Jackson, which obviously was a terrible move in hindsight. Other then that, it looks like they just made minor moves signing Scott Feldman and Nate Schierholtz. The Cubs also had an awful pen in 2012 but all they added in 2013 was Kevin Gregg.

 

Sure, one could argue that the Cubs did more in 2013 than the Twins have this year, but only minimally and to no great effect, they still lost 96 in 2013. The Cubs didn't make most of their moves until starting mid-season 2013 and not until they got the ball rolling did they start getting more active. I don't know why we won't let these guys test the waters first.

[Mike Sixel]

Is 4 moves not more than 1 move? 

 

I still don't see anyone ready to give up on the new FO, I see people disappointed (that word, not hateful, not this is the end of the world, disappointed) that more than 1 move wasn't made so far.

[bird]

 

When it comes to current pitching, IMO without a doubt the Twins are the worst team in baseball when talking from a talent standpoint.

 

I guess I wouldn't necessarily take exception to this belief, especially if you limited it to starters. Fixing the problem is another matter. I don't have any clever ideas about that, and frankly, I haven't really been exposed to any on TD, especially this off-season.

 

The thing I find least digestible is that, even if every single starter performed in accordance to the more optimistic expectations out there for them, the current staff would probably be pretty much "average". Again, I don't know how a GM fixes this problem entirely in one or two off-seasons.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I guess I wouldn't necessarily take exception to this belief, especially if you limited it to starters. Fixing the problem is another matter. I don't have any clever ideas about that, and frankly, I haven't really been exposed to any on TD, especially this off-season.

 

The thing I find least digestible is that, even if every single starter performed in accordance to the more optimistic expectations out there for them, the current staff would probably be pretty much "average". Again, I don't know how a GM fixes this problem entirely in one or two off-seasons.

 

I'm not sure anyone is asking it to be fixed in one season, what some are asking is, why hasn't that started at all? Now, I think they will deal ESan at the break, unless he struggles, and will get pitching in return. I have my doubts Dozier is ever traded for more than JDL, or at all.....so they either need to draft and develop better, or sign FAs, because they have no other veterans to trade that are likely to return anything. Which is a bummer.

 

Are expectations of some too high, (and I'd argue some too low)? sure. Is that not the nature of fandom, which is a completely irrational thing in the first place? Yes, yes it is. Fans are under no obligation to be patient at all.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It seems like a better bet to sign guys to minor league contracts, like Burton or Abad for example, than give $5M or whatever to guys perceived to be higher upside.

 

Perhaps, but even if they pitch well Abad doesn't get you a big return.  Those other guys might.

[nicksaviking]

 

Is 4 moves not more than 1 move? 

 

I still don't see anyone ready to give up on the new FO, I see people disappointed (that word, not hateful, not this is the end of the world, disappointed) that more than 1 move wasn't made so far.

 

Well I'd guess if the Twins sign Joe Blanton, Ryan Raburn and Justin Masterson people still won't be happy even if they match the Cubs 4 moves. There aren't any free agents that are going to significantly help this team next year, sure, I'd like something to happen, but in all honesty, I'd want something to happen because this offseason is freakin' boring and I want some actoin not because I think it would much matter come this summer.

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm not sure anyone is asking it to be fixed in one season, what some are asking is, why hasn't that started at all? Now, I think they will deal ESan at the break, unless he struggles, and will get pitching in return. I have my doubts Dozier is ever traded for more than JDL, or at all.....so they either need to draft and develop better, or sign FAs, because they have no other veterans to trade that are likely to return anything. Which is a bummer.

 

Are expectations of some too high, (and I'd argue some too low)? sure. Is that not the nature of fandom, which is a completely irrational thing in the first place? Yes, yes it is. Fans are under no obligation to be patient at all.

This.

It was pretty much known looking at the FA list that the rotation wasn't going to be completely fixed this winter. Regardless, I was hoping for at least a step forward in fixing the situation instead of standing still. 

There were some relatively cheap flyer options out there - Brett Anderson signed with the Cubs for $3.5 MM, Jesse Chavez 1/$5.75 Angels, Derek Holland 1/$6 White Sox, Jeff Locke 1/$3 Marlins.... Not that I'm advocating for all of these signings, but the point is there were several 1 year options out there. There wasn't that much risk for the Twins to sign one of these guys, hope for a good 3 months of performance, and decide to flip or keep.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well I'd guess if the Twins sign Joe Blanton, Ryan Raburn and Justin Masterson people still won't be happy even if they match the Cubs 4 moves. There aren't any free agents that are going to significantly help this team next year, sure, I'd like something to happen, but in all honesty, I'd want something to happen because this offseason is freakin' boring and I want some actoin not because I think it would much matter come this summer.

 

Well, that wasn't the point I was rebutting, was it? He said they didn't do more, I asked if 4 moves were more than 1 or not.

 

and yes, I agree that at this point, there are no FAs that thrill me, all the ones with huge upside are gone already. At this point, I doubt any FA move would help this year or beyond. Could happen, unlikely imo. 

 

I did and do endorse the one MLB FA they signed. I do think he'll help the pitching. I personally would have liked a successful trade, and one more FA signing. And no, I can't say who for sure, because anyone I name, someone will say why it isn't realistic.....which argument I'm tired of having.

[TheLeviathan]

Also, it's worth pointing out, that if your basis for this entire thread is that so many players underperformed relative to expectations, there is the answer that perhaps this year they will perform to those expectation.  However, there is yet another alternative that we haven't explored:

 

Maybe our expectations are too high/not relevant in the first place.

 

That's the fear of any rebuilding club and it's not like we're immune to it.

[wsnydes]

 

Well I'd guess if the Twins sign Joe Blanton, Ryan Raburn and Justin Masterson people still won't be happy even if they match the Cubs 4 moves. There aren't any free agents that are going to significantly help this team next year, sure, I'd like something to happen, but in all honesty, I'd want something to happen because this offseason is freakin' boring and I want some actoin not because I think it would much matter come this summer.

There are people that aren't going to be happy regardless of what the Twins do.  I'm not asking for the team to be rebuilt in one offseason, particularly this one.  I'm asking for them to at least start down that road.  They don't need to travel the full length of that road, just start down it.  The four moves the 2013 Cubs made were at least marginal improvements and efforts to improve the club.  That's more than what this team has done thus far.  All that I really expected this offseason was one trade and two or three other FA acquisitions to the big league club. I don't feel that's being overly ambitious.  Those are fairly low expectations of a 103 loss club in my view.

Edited February 1, 2017 by wsnydes

[bird]

 

I'm not sure anyone is asking it to be fixed in one season, what some are asking is, why hasn't that started at all? Now, I think they will deal ESan at the break, unless he struggles, and will get pitching in return. I have my doubts Dozier is ever traded for more than JDL, or at all.....so they either need to draft and develop better, or sign FAs, because they have no other veterans to trade that are likely to return anything. Which is a bummer.

 

Are expectations of some too high, (and I'd argue some too low)? sure. Is that not the nature of fandom, which is a completely irrational thing in the first place? Yes, yes it is. Fans are under no obligation to be patient at all.

 

 

I'm not commenting about fans' patience at all. The question I have is, if you were the GM, hired at the same time as Falvey, what move(s) would you have made to improve the starting rotation in 2017? Other than giving Trevor May a legitimate shot at a spot, which the GM has done.

 

And even if, as the GM, you had decided to ignore adding a lot of talent in 2017 and to abandon the goal of improving the record in 2017 through outside means besides Castro, what moves would you have tried to make this off-season to improve in 2018 and beyond, besides the one Falvey apparently worked hard to accomplish (Dozier) without success?

 

We're talking in this thread about the prospects of an improved record in 2017, and how moves by Falvey this off-season could possible be made or maybe should have been made. And how internal improvements might impact the record in 2017. There's decent consensus that a FA BP arm or three would be kind of a no-brainer, and a consensus that to-date Falvey hasn't adequately addressed the BP.

 

You'd agree that a majority believe a straight-up trade of Dozier for JDL would have been ill-advised?

Edited February 1, 2017 by birdwatcher

[old nurse]

 

That wasn't the point at all, was it?

Alexi Rameriz,  Brandon Morrow,  Josh Johnson, Benoit, Orlando Hudson. Man they sure made San Diego better. Shields was the only big name free agent to sign in San Diego in the last 10 years.  Scrap heap, over the hill, reclamation projects  similar to what Ryan signed.  So what is the point of claiming San Diego can sign free agents? 

[bluechipper]

This.

It was pretty much known looking at the FA list that the rotation wasn't going to be completely fixed this winter. Regardless, I was hoping for at least a step forward in fixing the situation instead of standing still. 

There were some relatively cheap flyer options out there - Brett Anderson signed with the Cubs for $3.5 MM, Jesse Chavez 1/$5.75 Angels, Derek Holland 1/$6 White Sox, Jeff Locke 1/$3 Marlins.... Not that I'm advocating for all of these signings, but the point is there were several 1 year options out there. There wasn't that much risk for the Twins to sign one of these guys, hope for a good 3 months of performance, and decide to flip or keep.

 

What's the point of those signings for the Twins? The small likelihood of any of those guys being good enough to get any sort of return is not worth them taking spots from Berrios, May, or Mejia.