Article: Recency Bias

[jimmer]

 

I feel pretty comfortable calling Hector Santiago a backend starter.

Instead of using ERA, I feel comfortable using his career FIP of 4.73, along with his 7.1K/3.9BB,  as a barometer of the type of pitcher he is.  He has ONE year with a WAR over 0.7, and that was 1.3 (4 seasons ago).

 

He's pitched 363 innings the last two years and accumulated 1.1 WAR.

Edited February 1, 2017 by jimmer

[bird]

 

There is a difference between a GM SAYING a pitcher will get a legitimate shot for a rotation spot and the pitcher actually getting a legitimate shot. Only need to look to last offseason to see that. Even Trevor May knew he wasnt going to be given a fair shot last year.

 

Almost everyone on TD knew May wasn't going to get a fair shot last year by the time spring training rolled around. After Ryan failed to add sufficient BP help, it was painfully obvious that May represented one of the best options for addressing this  area of weakness. Some of us begrudgingly saw it as the right move under the circumstances. And we know Duffey won't get a legitimate shot at the rotation THIS year and might be one of the more viable bullpen options. I'm guessing most of us believe May will in fact get a legitimate shot at a rotation spot this year. Why wouldn't we? The circumstances are different. ANd yet, wouldn't it surprise you to hear the GM say Duffey doesn't stand a chance at earning a spot? Why would a GM turn that card over with the fans?

Edited February 2, 2017 by birdwatcher

[jimmer]

 

Almost everyone on TD knew May wasn't going to get a fair shot last year by the time spring training rolled around. After Ryan failed to add sufficient BP help, it was painfully obvious that May represented one of the best options for addressing this  area of weakness. Some of us begrudgingly saw it as the right move under the circumstances. Just like we know Duffey won't this year. I'm guessing most of us believe May will in fact get a legitimate shot at a rotation spot this year. Why wouldn't we? The circumstances are different.

Well, first, I don't believe the bolded part is true.  At least, it's not what was being said by quite a few.  Some people were believing what Ryan said about May getting a real shot. But when it was 'decided' he didn't earn a spot, then the excuses came as to why Ryan made the right call all along (because we needed the RP or he wasn't really a good SP candidate, etc).

 

In any event, the circumstances are different? Did we got get some quality relievers we didn't have last year and I missed it?

 

Anyway, well see how it goes.  I'm hoping.

Edited February 2, 2017 by jimmer

[Bark's Lounge]

I think Twins fans have a right to be pissed off about this offseason.

 

I just so happen not to be one of them.

 

I really didn't see what could have been done. Maybe Castro's signing will help and have some kind of effect on the pitching staff with his + grades in framing.

 

I think the Twins will be in the mix for Boone or Breslow in the coming days/weeks.

 

I have a sturdy belief in our OF - Rosario, Buxton, Kepler. Young guys that have not been tamed.

 

The infield could be a disaster, but it could be okay. Sano and Polanco come with great defensive questions, but the Twins need to find out if they can cut the mustard.

 

Dozier at 2B will be good - I expect 25-30HR's from him, I am not confident that last year was a normal for him. Hopefully his Avg. will stay the same as it did last year and he can take BB's like he did two years ago - that would be great.

 

Mauer is an eyesore. That is not meant as a negative, but he is a shell of his former self. Park and Vargas should get some time. Between Mauer, Vargas and Park, they should be able to figure out the DH spot.

 

The starting pitching is scary, but could do better than expected. Santana is okay, Berrios has a great amount of talent, Gibson is a crapshoot, Santiago?, I like May coming back into the fold, etc., etc.

 

When Ryan took the reigns 2.0. He didn't go into rebuild mode. It seemed like he tried to retool - it did not work, hence he was relieved of his duties, too many years later.

 

We have a lot of talent, but we are in rebuild mold. The pitching is not good, it takes some years to get that right.

 

The non-trade of Dozier is okay by me. I don't think they were presented with the right package and Dozier's probably the only reason for fans to tune in and watch a game. That's my take.

[DJSim22]

They can't win.  If they sign or trade anyone they are blocking prospects!  If they want to see what they have, they should have traded for mediocre FA's and make a horrible trade of Dozier.  Sometimes I think people just need to b1tch.

[notoriousgod71]

Nothing about this team makes me want to watch them. I still will because it is ingrained in me but I will hate every minute of it.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Man. People are grumpy this morning!

 

 

Not apparently. It is, objectively. And losing 95 games would require basically the same performance as last year (again, they should have lost 96 based on RS/RA). So that would be a tiny step forward. I expect a larger one.

 

I believe Einstein had a pretty famous quote about the definition of insanity. It seems very fitting in this situation...

[Han Joelo]

Like somebody said above (Nick?), if the Twins had lost 103 with scrubs, while B, B, and S kicked ass in the minors, and the tone of this offseason would be a lot different. Let them play! Don't block them!

 

I am disappointed the Twins didn't pull off some amazing trade, but Dave Stewart was not available to trade with. Other than that, I'll drink the same Kool Aid as last winter. The rebuild depends on Buxton and Sano ascending to stardom. The rest is shuffling deck chairs.

[Doomtints]

 

Instead of using ERA, I feel comfortable using his career FIP of 4.73, along with his 7.1K/3.9BB,  as a barometer of the type of pitcher he is.  He has ONE year with a WAR over 0.7, and that was 1.3 (4 seasons ago).

 

He's pitched 363 innings the last two years and accumulated 1.1 WAR.

FIP is designed for measuring intrayear performance. What you want to be using is SIERA instead of FIP to look at his career. His SIERA is not much better, mind you.

In any case, most prediction systems have him falling off the map in 2017, probably due to the Twins lack of a defense and his lucky BABIP.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Doomtints

[mikelink45]

Okay we will be better.  We will lose 90 instead of 103.  what good is that? Our best chance for improvement is with our young batters, but if they had been better last year we would still have been last.  It is the pitchers and better framing does not put new arms on the same old players. 

[Doomtints]

 

 

When Ryan took the reigns 2.0. He didn't go into rebuild mode.

 

I think he did. His problem was moving beyond rebuild mode.

[jimmer]

 

FIP is designed for measuring intrayear performance. What you want to be using is SIERA instead of FIP to look at his career. His SIERA is not much better, mind you.

In any case, most prediction systems have him falling off the map in 2017, probably due to the Twins lack of a defense and his lucky BABIP.

I'll use what I think is best, thanks.  In this case, I'm not looking at predictive, I'm looking at actual performance and I believe FIP does a better job.  If you like Sierra, go for it. I don't buy some of it's assumptions.

Edited February 2, 2017 by jimmer

[DaveW]

I believe Einstein had a pretty famous quote about the definition of insanity. It seems very fitting in this situation...

Very well said. It's insane anyone is just "cool" with what this team has done, worst team in baseball and one of the worst teams in all of sports the las 6 years, the fact people want to continue to give these losers the benefit of the doubt when they literally make no impact moves to help 2017...but much more importantly 2018/2019 and beyond is insane.

 

I said it a few times before, the Pohlads are very very lucky that they own a team in Minnesota which is just used to losing and doesn't care at this point, put them in a city that has a passionate/smart fan base and people wouldn't be showing up to the stadium to watch this 95 million dollar garbage at all!

 

At some point the fans, media, etc need to demand for results better than "worst team in baseball" unfortunately that doesn't exist currently in Minnie. I'm sure Dave St Peter and co will try to play off the fact that they are raising tix again for a crap product by saying "Look at us! We just opened another 3 bars at Target Field!"

 

I'm a diehard Twins fan/Wild fan and Vikes fan and a New York Islanders season ticket holder (don't even care for the Isles) but I can say without a doubt that even if I lived a few blocks from target field I wouldnt be a season ticket holder and would be hard pressed to goto more than 10 games a year with this current "team". Front office has been a joke for 6 years and have been a joke so far this year as well.

Edited February 2, 2017 by DaveW

[Doomtints]

 

I'll use what I think is best, thanks.  In this case, I'm not looking at predictive, I'm looking at actual performance and I believe FIP does a better job.  If you like Sierra, go for it. I don't buy some of it's assumptions.

I'm not sure why you wouldn't. Someone ran SIERA/FIP/xFIP/ERA against all recent seasons and SIERA came up as being most accurate. FIP was nearly as bad as just using ERA. At least move to xFIP if you think SIERA has cooties, as xFIP was miles ahead of FIP.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Doomtints

[jimmer]

 

I'm not sure why you wouldn't. Someone ran SIERA/FIP/xFIP/ERA against all recent seasons and SIERA came up as being most accurate. FIP was nearly as bad as just using ERA. At least move to xFIP if you think SIERA has cooties, as xFIP was miles ahead of FIP.

You mean xFIP if I'm trying to find out what the pitchers numbers would have looked like if he hadn't given up so many HR or so FEW HR?  I'll stick to looking at what he actually did to find out how he actually performed.  If I'm looking to find out how he may do in future years, I'll check out xFIP.  But I wasn't look at how Santiago might do, I was looking at how he actually did.

 

Sierra argues that pitchers can control the types of balls in play they allow, even if they can not control the outcome of those balls.  I'm not ready to give into that belief just yet even if I believe that MAYBE a SMALL AMOUNT of pitchers can do that.

 

So FIP it is for me. In this situation.

Edited February 2, 2017 by jimmer

[DaveW]

 

They can't win.  If they sign or trade anyone they are blocking prospects!  If they want to see what they have, they should have traded for mediocre FA's and make a horrible trade of Dozier.  Sometimes I think people just need to b1tch.

What prospects do we actually have that could be "blocked" in 2017?

Berrios is the only SP that could be "blocked" IMO

Kepler/Buxton have already gotten starting gigs.

Who could potentially be blocked? Park or Vargas? Rosario? Duffey? 4 guys who have been well below average players thus far in the majors?

[Physics Guy]

I totally get the disappointment expressed on this thread.  It's hard not to be after the past 6 years.  I remember a thread two or three years ago discussing the Twins being in contention by 2018.  That doesn't seem likely at this point, but not out of the realm of possibility.  For me, it all comes down to the development of our young players.  That is what this year should be entirely about.  We need to figure out who can be part of the solution. 

 

At catcher, the FO made a good decision in signing Castro that should help the pitching staff.  Either Murphy or Gimenez should be the backup, allowing Garver to play most of the games at AAA.  This is a positive change.

 

I've stated my opinion on several threads that 1B & DH should be covered by Mauer, Vargas and Park.  Park and Vargas should face the tough lefties.  IMO we need to see what they can do rather than sign a DH.  No reason to make a move here. 

 

2B and SS is where I am disappointed, but I understand what the FO has done.  I wanted an IF of Escobar/Aybar SS and Polanco at 2B.  Polanco scares me a bit at SS.  Hopefully they can flip Dozier for at least two good prospects during the season.

 

I am happy the Twins are giving 3B to Sano.  Keep him at 3B as long as he can be serviceable there.  Yes, he will eventually be a 1B or DH.  He's too young to concede that yet.

 

I love the defense that an OF of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler can provide.  I am starting to be skeptical that Rosario can be a full-time starter, but I want him to be given every opportunity to see if he can.  I would have liked a better 4th OF defensively than Grossman, but don't see and RH FA that interest me.

 

I don't disagree that the bullpen could use another veteran, but am OK going with the kids.  As KLaw has stated, there probably isn't a team with more MLB ready RP in the minors.  Kintzler and Pressly are probably my only locks.  Then just run out whoever is producing among Duffey, Tonkin, Rogers, O'Rourke, Chargois, Melotakis, Hildenberger, Burdi and Reed.  They have many options.  Wouldn't mind seeing them sign Blanton.

 

Obviously the rotation needs to improve.  Unfortunately, there wasn't anything available in FA that really moves the needle for me.  Jason Hammel is still available and I wouldn't argue with signing him.  As bad as they were last year, I think the pitchers they currently have are capable of getting a 4.00-4.50 ERA fairly easily.    Santana is likely to have a sub 4 ERA.  I think a healthy Gibson throwing to Castro gives him a chance to be closer to 4 than 5.  He was arguably their best pitcher in 2015.  Hughes will get a chance and if he has regained his velocity can be a 4.00 ERA pitcher.  Trevor May's last 9 starts before being moved to the BP he threw 50.1 IP, 47K/10BB and a 3.75 ERA.  Santiago had 4 straight seasons below 4 ERA prior to last year.  If any of them fail we have Berrios and Meija in AAA.  Gonsalves could be ready by mid-season.   It isn't sexy, but I think their rotation should give them a chance.  Their primary focus should be to acquire high upside SP prospects in any trade. 

 

 

Edit:  I expect Haley to be in the pen.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Physics Guy

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Instead of using ERA, I feel comfortable using his career FIP of 4.73, along with his 7.1K/3.9BB,  as a barometer of the type of pitcher he is.  He has ONE year with a WAR over 0.7, and that was 1.3 (4 seasons ago).

 

He's pitched 363 innings the last two years and accumulated 1.1 WAR.

By that definition, Santiago is the mythical replacement level player... or slightly above.

[Riverbrian]

By that definition, Santiago is the mythical replacement level player... or slightly above.

 

"Wins Above Santiago"

 

That could catch on

 

Who wants to make t-shirts?

[killertwinfan]

 

Few reasons for hope? The lineup will have 2 recent top 10 prospects, a top 50 prospect, and a top 100 prospect. The staff could have guys like May, Berrios, and Mejia in it.

Worrying about losing Suzuki and Plouffe is really weird.

Yeah, I should be more up-beat, Thanks for the nudge. I was hoping for more in the off season and was letting off a little steam.  My point had nothing to do with Suzuki or Plouffe but the fact that we did so little in the off-season that we didn't even replace the 100 RBI that they produced.  Also, our prospects were on the verge of bust status, according to the vibe I read following them. Were it not for a strong finish by Buxton and some and an improved off-season workout program by Sano, the dialogue would be different. If Sano's glove is not better he will be a DH soon.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I very much want to like the new front office.  And I understand they are doing some reorganization, that hopefully will pay dividends down the road.  The offseason isn't over.

 

I also understand that as a fan...I'm left pretty underwhelmed with the visible effort to date.  

Nailed it. It's okay to be a bit disappointed that the front office hasn't been more active. Motion creates a sense of accomplishment.

 

But sometimes, that accomplishment turns sour once players take the field.

 

I'm a bit disappointed in the lack of action - mainly surrounding Dozier - but I'm willing to give the front office more than three months before declaring they've somehow failed at their jobs.

 

Lots of moving pieces, lots of background work and analysis we don't see, and lots of future plans we don't know about.

 

What the front office does from April-September is far more important that what they've done (or haven't done) from November-January.

[wsnydes]

 

What the front office does from April-September is far more important that what they've done (or haven't done) from November-January.

While I agree with this completely, what is done/not done from April-September is often set up by what they do/do not do from November-January.  I agree that a little patience is needed for the new FO, but that doesn't mean that we can't be a little disappointed by the inactivity either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

While I agree with this completely, what is done/not done from April-September is often set up by what they do/do not do from November-January.  I agree that a little patience is needed for the new FO, but that doesn't mean that we can't be a little disappointed by the inactivity either.

Sure, even I admit I'm a little disappointed.

 

But I try not to let that cloud my judgment of the front office and conflate "I'm disappointed" with "they failed".

[wsnydes]

 

Sure, even I admit I'm a little disappointed.

 

But I try not to let that cloud my judgment of the front office and conflate "I'm disappointed" with "they failed".

Agree completely.  It's far too early to be making any broad judgments in any direction.

 

Even without much activity this offseason so far, I want to see how they operate during the season as well.  As you pointed out, that timeframe is more important than the offseason.  Since this FO hasn't navigated a season yet, there is still much to learn about them.

Edited February 2, 2017 by wsnydes

[USAFChief]

"But I try not to let that cloud my judgment of the front office and conflate "I'm disappointed" with "they failed".

 

Precisely. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

"But I try not to let that cloud my judgment of the front office and conflate "I'm disappointed" with "they failed".

 

Precisely. 

 

Isn't that pretty much what everyone is typing?

Edited February 2, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Isn't that pretty much what everyone is typing?

Over the past few weeks, I've seen at least a dozen people call this offseason a failure, make comments such as "why'd they even fire Terry Ryan?", and find other ways to slam the new front office.

[USAFChief]

 

Isn't that pretty much what everyone is typing?

Have you read the Dozier threads?  Set aside a week to ten days, if not. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Over the past few weeks, I've seen at least a dozen people call this offseason a failure, make comments such as "why'd they even fire Terry Ryan?", and find other ways to slam the new front office.

 

I have posted the Ryan question, to those that say we just need the young guys to improve, and the team will finish aroun .500 or better, and they just need to sign 1 big time pitcher to be in the playoff hunt......if all that is true, then why fire the guy?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have posted the Ryan question, to those that say we just need the young guys to improve, and the team will finish aroun .500 or better, and they just need to sign 1 big time pitcher to be in the playoff hunt......if all that is true, then why fire the guy?

Because there's a lot more to running a baseball team than trades and free agents in one offseason?

 

Analytics, scouting, coaching, development, medical, assembling a roster, promotions/demotions... The list is a mile long.