Dozier now and beyond

[John Bonnes]

I think there is a lot of value in having serviceable players at minimum wage rates. The 2002 through 2004 Twins were made almost entirely of such players. Is your point that Dozier will never be more than average? Because the makes him a pretty good addition for the next five years.

 

Maybe I'm missing the point....

[Alex]

Back to Dozier, I obviously hope he performs very well and it would mean good things for the Twins if he did, but I look at the evidence a little differently than those that think he can be more than a utility player, sadly, that would mean a lot of trouble for th Twins.

 

Dozier's success has not been sustained and has come when he is older than much of the competition, so I'm worried his success is a mirage. The first season he hit well was rookie ball with an OPS at .837. But, he was 22, pretty much the top end of the age spectrum there where most players are 18-20. If you're a 22 year-old in rookie ball who hopes to be in the majors, you'd probably better be crushing the ball.

 

His second successful hitting season was at AA as a 24 year-old, but even that season was split with 40 games at high A-ball. His numbers were similar between both, so that was good to see. While 24 is more in the middle for AA ball, IMO, a player that has potential to be a major league starter should be further along. For example, look at Twins prospects Hicks and Arcia. Both are younger than Dozier and are handling AA pitching just fine.

 

So I'd like to see evidence of sustained success at a level commiserate with his age and development. For me, at least AAA seems like the right level for him to be showing His brief stint there wasn't impressive and he's very clearly overmatched in the pros.

 

Do those of you that think he's going to be a legit starter/full time player have evidence for comparison that show this? For example, Bartlett was mentioned, but he hit consistently from 2003-2006 in minors, and from 2005 posted far more acceptable OBP In the pros form 2005 on (25 years old). He's a great comparison from a developmental and age perspective but was much more consistent in the minors.

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't really know what to think of Dozier at this point, but what better option do the Twins currently have than letting him play SS every day in the big leagues? He's going to be the opening day starter in 2013, I'd bet a large sum of money on that.

[Alex]

I don't really know what to think of Dozier at this point, but what better option do the Twins currently have than letting him play SS every day in the big leagues? He's going to be the opening day starter in 2013, I'd bet a large sum of money on that.

That's sort of my point. Our hopes rest on him and so do the Twins, but I think that middle infield may be a high position of need among several but maybe only second to starting pitching.

[jokin]

I think there is a lot of value in having serviceable players at minimum wage rates. The 2002 through 2004 Twins were made almost entirely of such players. Is your point that Dozier will never be more than average? Because the makes him a pretty good addition for the next five years.

 

Maybe I'm missing the point....

The situation was of course, quite different then. Though the jury is clearly out, I think Dozier can possibly be an average SS, but the timing is horrible having to rely on the hope that he reaches his full potential sooner rather than later.

 

The Twins are caught, rock/hard-place-style, between rebuilding and reloading. I'm a firm believer that you can't do both and if you read between the lines ("there is no quick fix") Terry Ryan admitted as much last Thursday, followed by Dave St Peter today. They have 4 higher- to very high-priced players and some other dependable veterans who have a short window left at their peak production years, meanwhile the Twins are about to unload virtually the entire opening day starting pitching staff, leaving another off-season of vast uncertainty about the SP makeup for next year and possibly even holding tryouts for the last 3 SP spots in 2013 Spring Training- somewhat akin to what they did this year for the relievers.

 

Is the timing right at making a 2013/14 run at a pennant, on behalf of those veterans to-

 

1) have an unheralded and (understandably) under-performing rookie at the most important defensive position,

2) have a complete question mark at 3B to open the 2012 season that only was "solved" with a Hail Mary desperation move with Plouffe (who in turn, has his own set of question marks), and

3) a current (and near future?) SP staff replete with soft-throwing AAAers, maybe an as-yet unknown FA, maybe mid-season help from a wounded-wing TJ surgery recoverer and maybe another 8-year career minor leaguer who doesn't have any idea where his next pitch is headed-

 

all in lieu of having proven major leaguers at SS, 3B and SP to give the vets one last shot for the brass ring as a group? The Twins, though not admitting it for obvious reasons, have been offloading salary in the midst of rebuilding in stages and still hoping to appear to be reloading and competitive in the interim, it doesn't usually work out that well.

[John Bonnes]

The situation was of course, quite different then. Though the jury is clearly out, I think Dozier can possibly be an average SS, but the timing is horrible having to rely on the hope that he reaches his full potential sooner rather than later....

....

....all in lieu of having proven major leaguers at SS, 3B and SP to give the vets one last shot for the brass ring as a group? The Twins, though not admitting it for obvious reasons, have been offloading salary in the midst of rebuilding in stages and still hoping to appear to be reloading and competitive in the interim, it doesn't usually work out that well.

So your point is the Twins need to add high-performing or solid vets at SS, 3B & several starting pitchers? I think that means they either need to spend a lot this offseason or trade away prospects for more solid, albeit expensive guys? Is that what you're saying?

 

I guess if that's the bigger view, then I can see why you would be dissatisfied with Dozier.

 

I'll add one thing: the Twins have a bigger view too, and it involves developing minor leaguers. Even if they had another $50M payroll, I think plugging in players like Dozier would be a priority or them. They feel strongly that is part of their mission.

[DaveW]

Doizer has been pretty bad this year overall, but with that said he is definitely the starting SS or 2B come opening day, as he should be.

Out of the MI group of Dozier, Carroll, Casilla, Escobar, Floriman etc Dozier by far is the best in house candidate of the bunch. Even if the Twins somehow trade for a good SS/2B or sign one in FA Dozier still gets first crack at starting at the other MI position, and probably holds it down.

 

FWIW: I have always been a bit skeptical of Dozier, but I think he can be a solid 3-4 year stop gap at SS/2B and could see him hitting for a .750 or so OPS in the mahors.

[jorgenswest]

It is far too early to know if Dozier will grow as a player. It takes an investment of over 1000 plate appearances. The Twins were wise to bring him up early this year at 25. He will soon enter the peak years of his career and the struggle at the major league level will help. Often players struggle early. AAA can not prepare players for major league pitching.

 

If he can defend well enough at SS, he should be able to develop his bat into a regular SS through age 30. More should be expected from a bat at 2B. I think that is where Casilla is limited. The Twins don't believe in his glove at SS and he doesn't have the bat for 2B. I don't think Dozier has the bat for 2B either. Starting SS or utility is where he fits best.

[jokin]

So your point is the Twins need to add high-performing or solid vets at SS, 3B & several starting pitchers? I think that means they either need to spend a lot this offseason or trade away prospects for more solid, albeit expensive guys? Is that what you're saying?

 

I guess if that's the bigger view, then I can see why you would be dissatisfied with Dozier.

 

I'll add one thing: the Twins have a bigger view too, and it involves developing minor leaguers. Even if they had another $50M payroll, I think plugging in players like Dozier would be a priority or them. They feel strongly that is part of their mission.

No, that ship has sailed. It was in response to another poster who was glad to enter the Dozier era and finally leave the Hardy era behind. Given the time horizon for the vets in their peak years, having Hardy still in place, a more established, but not necessarily too expensive 3B signed, and priority given over the last two years in upgrading the SP staff would have been expensive, but with proper stewardship and trades, not another $50M expensive. Perhaps Dozier could have rounded out that lineup nicely at 2B as the Twins made runs this year, 2013 and 2014.

 

At that point, beginning, perhaps in 2014, after a couple of title runs, the developed minor leaguers could have begun to fulfill the bigger picture and begun to take their rightful spots at the right time in their development for a quick rebuild.

[Dilligaf69]

If I were to list the top 5 problems on the Twins Dozier would be 5...he'll be fine I believe.

[greengoblinrulz]

Im 100% in that I dont value errors anymore as official scoring is horrendous throughout the majors. I am a UZR guy (understand some dont like it) & he is not the worst fielding SS in majors according to that. Does he need to improve, yes...definately. Think some are forgetting how bad the SS play was last yr.....Dozier has NOT been in that class of poor play.

Offensively, hes just a rookie. People forget how bad Ben Revere was last yr. How bout Trevor Plouffe or even the MVP Morneau. Even this yrs MVP Mike Trout hit only .220 last yr. Give him the year & see what happens next yr. Shown decent HR power (prob a 10/15 guy) & sb speed (prob a 15/20 guy). Thing that bothers me is he was such a patient walk orientated hitter in minors but only 12bb this yr in 77gms

[Alex]

. AAA can not prepare players for major league pitching.

 

 

I don't disagree totally, but you'd think that if he'd have hit at AAA.

[Alex]

Im 100% in that I dont value errors anymore as official scoring is horrendous throughout the majors. I am a UZR guy (understand some dont like it) & he is not the worst fielding SS in majors according to that. Does he need to improve, yes...definately. Think some are forgetting how bad the SS play was last yr.....Dozier has NOT been in that class of poor play.

Offensively, hes just a rookie. People forget how bad Ben Revere was last yr. How bout Trevor Plouffe or even the MVP Morneau. Even this yrs MVP Mike Trout hit only .220 last yr. Give him the year & see what happens next yr. Shown decent HR power (prob a 10/15 guy) & sb speed (prob a 15/20 guy). Thing that bothers me is he was such a patient walk orientated hitter in minors but only 12bb this yr in 77gms

Rookies struggle at the plate, certainly.

 

Morneau was a 900+ OPS hitter in the minors, Revere was a .300+ hitter at all levels, so while their early struggles are expected, it definitely wasn't surprising that they figured it out this year. Plouffe was consistent throughout the minors until he was 25 where he started crushing the ball at AAA. I very much hope Dozier turns out like Plouffe. I just don't see the evidence for it, and while Dozier's struggles don't surprise me this year, I also won't be surprised if they continue.

 

As for fielding, I don't have the numbers but I agree with you that errors don't tell the story. Dozier's errors in particular, though, seem to come on plays that he should make. His UZR is -2.7, though, 18th in the majors, so it's not like he's making up for his bat with his glove.

 

I agree he's likely the Twins starter simply by default for the next couple of years but I think in general people are a bit too optimistic about him.

[bird]

The Twins didn't exit the "Hardy era" to enter the Dozier era. They made a decision to find an alternative for Hardy for two primary reasons:first because they didn't think he was worth the salary he would command, and second, because they thought they had a better idea named Nishioka. They came up looking like imbeciles on both counts. But jokin, you say that this was part of a bare bones budget cutting strategy on the part of the evildoers. Then how do you explain the Nishioka investment? How does that expenditure reconcile with your big conspiracy theory?

 

You are confused, jokin. Your conclusions are not "facts". Perhaps a little humility would help you see the difference.

[Ultima Ratio]

Dozier is but a stop gap at this point. He's not panning out and I don't think he can become more than AAAA/AAA player. Just a replacement level player.

[jokin]

The Twins didn't exit the "Hardy era" to enter the Dozier era. They made a decision to find an alternative for Hardy for two primary reasons:first because they didn't think he was worth the salary he would command, and second, because they thought they had a better idea named Nishioka. They came up looking like imbeciles on both counts. But jokin, you say that this was part of a bare bones budget cutting strategy on the part of the evildoers. Then how do you explain the Nishioka investment? How does that expenditure reconcile with your big conspiracy theory?

 

You are confused, jokin. Your conclusions are not "facts". Perhaps a little humility would help you see the difference.

Studies have shown that teams that overspend at 2B, SS and 3B tend to generally consider themselves in it to win it. The Twins have spoken loud and clear that they aren't in it, with their pocketbooks; they obviously haven't felt comfortable taking on that additional salary risk, and hence the repeated weakness in the Twins infield. The Hardy/Nishioka "imbecilic" (wow, kind of insensitive on your part?) swap, according to the reporting done at the time was obviously a double-mis-evaluation and a cost-cutting move, combined with some wacky new marketing scheme to expand the Twins brand to Asia and possibly entice another prospect or two to consider signing with the Twins. Besides this failure to refute the facts in your post, you also neglected to mention the other areas of cost-cutting which has occurred in the last few years- Valencia undeservedly and practically accidentally out of desperation handed the 3B job, the continual mess at 2B, a CF w/ a pop-gun arm and bat playing out of place in a power/corner OF spot, the cavalier annual casting off of proven relievers- only to then, out of sheer desperation, hold an open tryout in 2012 ST.

 

This isn't "evildoing" on the Twins part (not sure why you continue to go there), it's business decisions, right or wrong, based on risk assessment and analysis trying to meet an expected rate of return.

[Wolfy]

I'm trying to think of a player on this team, pitchers not included, that has been worse than Dozier in an overall sense. I can't think of one.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm trying to think of a player on this team, pitchers not included, that has been worse than Dozier in an overall sense. I can't think of one.

Not surprising, given that the offense has been pretty damned good all season and Dozier has been pretty damned bad.

[Boom Boom]

I'm trying to think of a player on this team, pitchers not included, that has been worse than Dozier in an overall sense. I can't think of one.

Dozier's been lucky because the Twins are shallow in the middle infield.

 

If he played anywhere else the Twins would have sent him back down by now, like Danny Valencia and Clete Thomas.

[TheLeviathan]

Dozier's been lucky because the Twins are shallow in the middle infield.

 

If he played anywhere else the Twins would have sent him back down by now, like Danny Valencia and Clete Thomas.

I'd argue they should have anyway. This kid has some tools that are easy to like...but jesus has he been bad.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Dozier's been lucky because the Twins are shallow in the middle infield.

 

If he played anywhere else the Twins would have sent him back down by now, like Danny Valencia and Clete Thomas.

Not sure it's quite fair to compare Dozier to Valencia just yet. Valencia plays at a position where you are expected to hit, whereas Dozier does not. Dozier certainly shows some nice flashes from time to time, but he hasn't "put it together" so to speak. In his case, I think you just need to be patient. I agree that not having decent options helps, but unlike the other options, you can at least claim that there's some upside. He has a nice enough minor league track record that the Twins should be patient and see if he can turn into a .750 OPS guy, which would make him above average for his position (at the plate at least). There's no reason to think he cannot do it, but the idea that as a rookie he's going to come in and produce is somewhat unfair. That doesn't happen nearly as often as we would all like.