Article: How The Twins Could Lose Another 100 Games

[KirbyDome89]

 

I could see 100 losses, but I think more likely it's in the 90ish range.

99 it is then!

[chpettit19]

 

This has been the most insightful thread of the Falvey era. It is time for fans to take this front office to task for a shamefully negligent off-season when the 2016 product--which was a lousy joke--mandated sweeping roster reconstruction.

 

I don't know if you seriously think a front office that's been in place for 3 months needs to be taken to task or not, but it seems a little aggressive to me. What moves would you like to have seen them make? I can see frustration with no real bullpen improvement, but other than that I don't know what moves you wanted them to make. I really would have liked to have seen Greg Holland get signed and there were a few other decent options out there, but with only 2 decent trade chips and a really weak free agent class in the areas that the Twins drastically need to improve I'm not sure what the front office really could have done.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

How about this one -- sign me!

 

For the league minimum, I'll gladly be the 4th outfielder and endure the wrath of Twins Daily posters.

 

At least you'd have an excuse.

 

"I have a very long commute!"

[operation mindcrime]

This is why he should not be at 3rd, where the injury occurred. Sano's value will always be with his bat. If he spends time on the DL due to injuries sustained in the field, the Twins are burning off one of their most exciting assets in the history of the franchise.

 

They should just get it over with and trade him to Boston so he can have the baseball career that he deserves to have.  

This deserves to be nominated for post of the offseason! \m/

[leopoty]

 

Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, and Ricky Nolasco made a combined 59 starts last year. The best ERA of the bunch was 5.13. Topping that and losing 100 games again will be extremely difficult.

Addition by subtraction!

[laloesch]

 

Maybe losing another 100 wouldn't be so bad...

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/triston-casas-reclassifies-2018/#kYMge0TwWZqyzqFh.97

 

“His approach and feel for the strike zone is very advanced and his well above average raw power is as playable as any 16-year-old prospect I have seen since Bryce Harper.”

 

#BellengerWho

 

The upside is the high draft picks which can in theory if done properly bring in premium talent.  

[Doomtints]

 

Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, and Ricky Nolasco made a combined 59 starts last year. The best ERA of the bunch was 5.13. Topping that and losing 100 games again will be extremely difficult.

 

Duffey is still on the team along with Gibson, Berrios and Hughes.  The best ERA of THAT bunch is 5.07.

 

How many wins is 0.06 ERA worth?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Duffey is still on the team along with Gibson, Berrios and Hughes.  The best ERA of THAT bunch is 5.07.

 

How many wins is 0.06 ERA worth?

 

Are you saying that group will definitely perform equal or worse than in 2016?

[Doomtints]

 

Duffey is still on the team along with Gibson, Berrios and Hughes.  The best ERA of THAT bunch is 5.07.

 

How many wins is 0.06 ERA worth?

 

Heck, why not throw in Santiago and May to fill out the other potential starters.  Best ERA there is 5.27.

 

Sure, they probably won't be calling up Pat Dean or Andrew Albers to utterly blow everything up at the end of the year again, so there's maybe 3 wins or so right there....

[Doomtints]

 

Are you saying that group will definitely perform equal or worse than in 2016?

 

I'm saying the team is pinning their hopes on that not being the case rather than making moves to ensure that's not the case.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm saying the team is pinning their hopes on that not being the case rather than making moves to ensure that's not the case.

Are they, though?

 

They had one legitimate shot to improve the rotation: Jose De Leon.

 

That didn't work out and we don't know who to blame for that non-move.

 

Given the complete lack of options in free agency, I can't blame this front office for preferring to run with the likes of Gibson, Berrios, May, Meija, Duffey, et al. In my opinion, those guys have the same chance of success as anyone on the free agent pitching market and they're all cheap and controlled (excluding Santiago).

 

I'm a bit disappointed in the complete lack of action in the bullpen, though. But I'll wait it out and see if they have a plan for Opening Day.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm saying the team is pinning their hopes on that not being the case rather than making moves to ensure that's not the case.

 

What moves were there to make? The free agent class was awful. If you're still grousing about the Twins not taking the low-ball De Leon offer, well then it's only fair to play your ERA game with him as well. His ERA was also terrible last year.

 

Sorry, but some problems do not have immediate solutions.

[TheLeviathan]

 

What moves were there to make? The free agent class was awful. If you're still grousing about the Twins not taking the low-ball De Leon offer, well then it's only fair to play your ERA game with him as well. His ERA was also terrible last year.

 

Sorry, but some problems do not have immediate solutions.

 

Perhaps, but so far we don't have immediate or long-term solutions that have been addressed.  We basically are rolling with the same crew.  

 

At some point I'd like some immediate and long-term solutions attempted.  Sooner rather than later.

[nicksaviking]

 

Perhaps, but so far we don't have immediate or long-term solutions that have been addressed.  We basically are rolling with the same crew.  

 

At some point I'd like some immediate and long-term solutions attempted.  Sooner rather than later.

 

I think the entire TD community will agree on that.

[TheLeviathan]

Well we're sorting of running out of time this offseason and the clock is ticking on team control for all these young hitters we all love.

 

At some point, risks will have to be taken.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Perhaps, but so far we don't have immediate or long-term solutions that have been addressed.  We basically are rolling with the same crew.  

 

At some point I'd like some immediate and long-term solutions attempted.  Sooner rather than later.

Same here, but we all know the situation that played out this offseason. The Twins had one legitimate trade piece from their pool of position players: Brian Dozier.

 

They spent a month trying to trade the guy and it didn't work out. Dunno whose fault that was but it didn't work out.

 

Once that attempt fell flat, what options remained?

 

They could have traded Santana but that doesn't help their pitching staff, it actually weakens them. They could have traded a prospect or two but, again, it's unlikely that would help in 2017.

 

Meanwhile, the former front office left Falvey with a raging cluster**** of a roster. They have five-ish marginal young arms and a few established vets, one coming off injury. They retained another marginal arm, probably as a safety net.

 

I don't blame the front office for what happened with the rotation this offseason because it was a bad situation. My hope is that they aggressively pare down the bad situation throughout the season, something we didn't see with the Ryan front office. If Santiago is awful, release him. If Duffey even hints at looking bad, demote him and get him bullpen innings. If May flounders, relegate him back to the pen. If Gibson is terrible, consider an outright release.

 

While I can't blame the new front office for inheriting a bad situation, I will blame them if they don't take action to clean out what caused that bad situation as quickly as possible.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm with you on that Brock, I was out saying how bad this offseason looked for talent acquisition months ago.

 

But because of that I'd really like to be a fly on the wall of our FO.  I wonder what was out there on Santana and Dozier and I worry we may have passed on moves I'd have jumped all over.  This will be an interesting offseason to look back on when we know more about our new head honchos.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm with you on that Brock, I was out saying how bad this offseason looked for talent acquisition months ago.

 

But because of that I'd really like to be a fly on the wall of our FO.  I wonder what was out there on Santana and Dozier and I worry we may have passed on moves I'd have jumped all over.  This will be an interesting offseason to look back on when we know more about our new head honchos.

Yeah, it's frustrating to have so little information on something we care so much about. We were used to the old front office and how they operated but we have no idea what's happening in the current front office or what to expect on Opening Day.

 

I merely hope it's not more of the same, though given Falvey's pitching success in Cleveland and Levine's involvement with an aggressive Rangers front office, I don't believe that will be the case.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, next year they'll have only 2 trade assets, again.....so, good luck on that front.

 

If the FA market is better...will they outbid teams for Ace types? I have my doubts. Full on, very slow, thru the draft, rebuild....since we passed on going over on international (check out the top 100s, and how many are international signings, none of which are Twins in the last 5 years, IIRC).

[IndianaTwin]

 

At least you'd have an excuse.

 

"I have a very long commute!"

I'm an old goat too -- do you have a couch I can crash on? It's not like poor sleeping conditions will negatively affect my performance. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well, next year they'll have only 2 trade assets, again.....so, good luck on that front.

 

If the FA market is better...will they outbid teams for Ace types? I have my doubts. Full on, very slow, thru the draft, rebuild....since we passed on going over on international (check out the top 100s, and how many are international signings, none of which are Twins in the last 5 years, IIRC).

 

That's my concern too.  If we pass on risky moves because of value, we're basically relying on internal improvements and draftees to save us.  It's hard to see a staff of this age (save May and Berrios) making sizable strides and draftees take time.

 

So that means we're burning through time we have this young offensive core together.  

 

I loved the Castro signing, but I really hope we see a plan forming soon.  This feels so much like Ryan's regime is still in charge that it's frustrating.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Same here, but we all know the situation that played out this offseason. The Twins had one legitimate trade piece from their pool of position players: Brian Dozier.

I disagree with this. With the team's depth of young position players, why is trading one of them for a pitching upgrade not an option?

 

Dan Straily and Drew Smyly were both recently traded for packages that included one player with less that half a season of MLB experience and two minor league prospects. I don't know if you can find a comparable Twins package to those deals specifically, but I would assume the Twins could put together a similar package to upgrade the rotation. Those are just recent examples, there have been a number of starting pitchers traded this winter.

 

Obviously, prospects are incredibly valuable to a team like the Twins, but there are already a lot of guys on the roster who are under 25, the farm system is still pretty strong and the No. 1 pick/top bonus pool should mean it's only going to get better.

 

If your veterans like Dozier can't be used in a trade to upgrade the pitching, at what point do you try to use the prospect depth to improve the staff? Never?

[wsnydes]

 

I disagree with this. With the team's depth of young position players, why is trading one of them for a pitching upgrade not an option?

 

Dan Straily and Drew Smyly were both recently traded for packages that included one player with less that half a season of MLB experience and two minor league prospects. I don't know if you can find a comparable Twins package to those deals specifically, but I would assume the Twins could put together a similar package to upgrade the rotation. Those are just recent examples, there have been a number of starting pitchers traded this winter.

 

Obviously, prospects are incredibly valuable to a team like the Twins, but there are already a lot of guys on the roster who are under 25, the farm system is still pretty strong and the No. 1 pick/top bonus pool should mean it's only going to get better.

 

If your veterans like Dozier can't be used in a trade to upgrade the pitching, at what point do you try to use the prospect depth to improve the staff? Never?

Agreed.  There's no reason not to trade from organizational positions of depth to fill holes.  The only thing I worry about is that you start relying on fewer and fewer of those guys panning out.  With a sketchy track record of hitters coming up and struggling to adjust to MLB hitting, that's a concern.  That being said, you can't be paralyzed as an organization like that.  The pitching has to be improved somehow and it isn't going to all come from within.  Trading some of those pieces becomes one of those means.

[jimmer]

What depth, in regards to young position players,do we actually have? Some of the higher regarded ones have come up and underwhelmed, to say the least, and the ones in the farm system arent highly regarded. The quality isnt there.

 

We had two good chips to get well regarded pitching. Both will be in our opening day lineup.

Edited January 27, 2017 by jimmer

[drivlikejehu]

 

What depth, in regards to young position players,do we actually have? Some of the higher regarded ones have come up and underwhelmed, to say the least, and the ones in the farm system arent highly regarded. The quality isnt there.

We had two good chips to get well regarded pitching. Both will be in our opening day lineup.

 

Well, if the position players don't pan out, then adding a pitching prospect or two is pretty much irrelevant . . . the club will be bad no matter what. 

 

Any realistic notion of contending relies on Sano, Buxton, Kepler, etc. being a successful nucleus. Without that it will be a long, long rebuild.

 

Your first point is a good one though because a lot of people seem to take the position player side for granted while saying the pitching is hopeless, but I think the difference is a lot smaller than that. It's certainly plausible in theory that by next year, a rotation of Santana, Berrios, May, Mejia, and Gonsalves could be decent. Not really likely of course, but it's possible.

 

How much more likely is it that all the position players pan out? 

Edited January 27, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[jimmer]

Adding young talent is never irrelevent, especially if using good trade chips who wont be around during compeitive periods.

 

Hard to believe anyone would try and sell the idea that this team doesnt need/shouldn't pursue quality pitching no matter what the circumstance (even if that circumstance is a hypothetical scenario such as position players not panning out).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I disagree with this. With the team's depth of young position players, why is trading one of them for a pitching upgrade not an option?

Kepler is the only guy I see on the roster that approaches anything near max value right now.

 

Sano had a down year. Buxton is still a big question mark. Rosario is who he is. Polanco is intriguing but out of options and was never that highly regarded by analysts. I don't see much of a return for him.

 

And I'm not ready to get rid of Kepler. I think he's been an underrated guy for quite some time and is likely to end up better than his projections.

 

It's great to say "make moves!" and I'd like to see some roster action... But it's a lot harder to say it when you start putting rubber on the road. Who do you move? And what other problems does that cause in future seasons?

 

The Twins were a 59 win team with one of the youngest rosters in baseball. It shouldn't surprise any of us that they don't have a lot of max value guys right now.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Adding young talent is never irrelevent, especially if using good trade chips who wont be around during compeitive periods.

Hard to believe anyone would try and sell the idea that this team doesnt need/shouldn't pursue quality pitching no matter what the circumstance (even if that circumstance is a hypothetical scenario such as position players not panning out).

 

Everyone likes young talent. That's why you can't just snap your fingers and have more of it.

 

Is your concern that Falvey and Levine aren't worried about the Twins pitching? 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Kepler is the only guy I see on the roster that approaches anything near max value right now.

 

Sano had a down year. Buxton is still a big question mark. Rosario is who he is. Polanco is intriguing but out of options and was never that highly regarded by analysts. I don't see much of a return for him.

 

And I'm not ready to get rid of Kepler. I think he's been an underrated guy for quite some time and is likely to end up better than his projections.

 

It's great to say "make moves!" and I'd like to see some roster action... But it's a lot harder to say it when you start putting rubber on the road. Who do you move? And what other problems does that cause in future seasons?

 

The Twins were a 59 win team with one of the youngest rosters in baseball. It shouldn't surprise any of us that they don't have a lot of max value guys right now.

Can't argue against any thing here. But I came up with a comp to the Smyly package. He was traded for Mallex Smith, Ryan Yarbrough and Carlos Vargas.

 

I think Rosario is a comparable piece to Smith, if not more valuable. But Smith's main tool is his center field defense, so it's tough to compare the two. If Rosario wouldn't be enough, I'm sure Polanco would be. Not the same position, but I'm sure after trading Forsythe the Rays could use a 2B, too.

 

Ryan Yarbrough had a nice year at Double A, but he's 25. A former fourth-round pick, a Twins comp to him might be a guy like Ryan Eades or D.J. Baxendale.

 

Carlos Vargas is a 17-year-old shortstop who played in the DSL. He and Wander Javier were in the same international signing class. Javier got $4 M, Vargas got $1.7 M. So this would need to be a intriguing young international signee, but no one near the level of Javier. I don't have my prospect handbook on me (FAIL!), so I don't have a specific name for this one.

 

So, for two years of Smyly (career ERA+ of 108 would be best on the starting rotation) would you give up Rosario/Polanco, Eades/Baxendale and an interesting 17-year-old, but by no means your top young guy?

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat. Maybe that means the comp I came up with is nowhere near as good as the package the Rays got for Smyly, I don't know.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Can't argue against any thing here. But I came up with a comp to the Smyly package. He was traded for Mallex Smith, Ryan Yarbrough and Carlos Vargas.

 

I think Rosario is a comparable piece to Smith, if not more valuable. But Smith's main tool is his center field defense, so it's tough to compare the two. If Rosario wouldn't be enough, I'm sure Polanco would be. Not the same position, but I'm sure after trading Forsythe the Rays could use a 2B, too.

 

Ryan Yarbrough had a nice year at Double A, but he's 25. A former fourth-round pick, a Twins comp to him might be a guy like Ryan Eades or D.J. Baxendale.

 

Carlos Vargas is a 17-year-old shortstop who played in the DSL. He and Wander Javier were in the same international signing class. Javier got $4 M, Vargas got $1.7 M. So this would need to be a intriguing young international signee, but no one near the level of Javier. I don't have my prospect handbook on me (FAIL!), so I don't have a specific name for this one.

 

So, for two years of Smyly (career ERA+ of 108 would be best on the starting rotation) would you give up Rosario/Polanco, Eades/Baxendale and an interesting 17-year-old, but by no means your top young guy?

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat. Maybe that means the comp I came up with is nowhere near as good as the package the Rays got for Smyly, I don't know.

If a deal of that kind can be found, I'd jump all over it... But I'm skeptical a team out there is that interested in Polanco or Rosario. I just don't see much of a market for those guys, particularly Rosario. A team like Tampa likely glances at his swing rate and contact rate and immediately says to the Twins:

 

http://www.blinkydog.com/wp-content/uploads/Dogs-Do-Not-Want-2.jpg