Article: Falvey's First Stand

[Doomtints]

 

This is not correct - there is a very high chance that De Leon just isn't very good. That's basically true for almost any pitching prospect. Many posters do not realize how high the failure rates are for performance reasons, not just injury.

 

Ah, the Terry Ryan method.  Any choice may fail so just make no choices.

[chpettit19]

 

Disappointment is the only word I can apply.  Nothing against Dozier although I still fear his next slump.  And nothing for De Leon - I know nothing about him, except what I read in the TD posts.  What I wanted to see was the FO making some things happen.  So far nothing that gets me excited for the 2017 season or the next from FO change.  I am still waiting and hoping. 

 

I'm with you on almost all of this. It is disappointing that there's really nothing that should get us excited for the upcoming season beyond the hopeful next steps of Buxton and Sano. My question, though, is what things did you want the FO to make happen? We all want to see better pitchers take the mound for the Twins this season, but the FO can't just make them appear. There were a few options out there for the guys to look into, but I just don't see any moves that would have made significant improvements.

[Adam Peterson]

I've lurked for the 5000+ comments across multiple threads, but I've been highly entertained. Now that the Dodgers are off the pot I'll chime in with my three cents...

 

1. I'm disappointed that the Twins weren't able to work something out with LA for Dozier. Seemed like the best fit by far...on paper.

 

2. We don't know what was the offer on the table from LA for Dozier. This reminds me of the Johan Santana discussions where many including Melky Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and others were "supposedly" on the table. Without a reasonable report of specific players, I find it very hard to judge F&L this time around.

 

3. That said, IF the offer was De Leon plus "junk" (i.e., not Bellinger, Stewart, Buehler, Alvarez or other rumored untouchables), I would decline and move on. Dozier IMO is worth more than that. However, if one of the above was on the table, with or without a third piece I'd probably pull the trigger. And I know many may not agree, but my order of preference for a second piece would probably be as noted above.

 

4. If I look at this from the perspective of LA, I think the Forsythe trade makes good sense. From their perspective, they do not need an all star replacement at 2B, rather a solid 2-3 WAR guy who won't be a black hole. Yes, Dozier is more valuable than Forsythe, and he's demonstrated this over twice as many years. And all of this goes into reasonable projections for 2017 and 2018. But is the delta worth giving up Bellinger, Stewart, Buehler or Alvarez in addition to De Leon? I suspect not if I'm the Dodgers.

 

5. I hope there are other options on the table (e.g., Atlanta or San Francisco) but I suspect not. This always seemed like F&L attempting to build a market for Dozier when ther really wasn't one.

 

6. In all likelihood F&L at this point will wait and see what options are available at the trade deadline this July. Hopefully this will be a good option, but it all depends on whether Dozier has a good start and what teams lose a 2B to injury. Who knows, perhaps Dustin Pedroia goes out and Boston is desperate? Not something I would bet on but I'm ok moving forward.

 

7. As long as we don't sign Dozier to a market value free agent contract or extension this year or next.

[chpettit19]

 

Understanding prospect bust rates is exactly why i wanted Dozier dealt!  We simply don't have enough upside young pitching in our organization.

 

From what I've seen on a number of the TD forumst just about everyone wanted Dozier dealt. The difference is whether or not it was a smart move to trade your best player and a proven MLBer for 1 pitching prospect. I don't think that's a smart use of your assets. De Leon isn't Urias or some other 20, 21, 22 year old who may be a top of the rotation guy. There's very few people out there that think he's a number 1 or 2 arm, and I think this situation shows that the Twins scouts and FO personnel didn't believe he was a number 1 or 2. He's 24 which isn't old for a prospect, but isn't young either. Most people think his upside, not floor, is a number 3 arm. If you want more young upside arms in the organization trading your best player for 1 guy who's upside is a middle of the rotation arm isn't the way to go.

[Vanimal46]

 

I've lurked for the 5000+ comments across multiple threads, but I've been highly entertained. Now that the Dodgers are off the pot I'll chime in with my three cents... 1. I'm disappointed that the Twins weren't able to work something out with LA for Dozier. Seemed like the best fit by far...on paper. 2. We don't know what was the offer on the table from LA for Dozier. This reminds me of the Johan Santana discussions where many including Melky Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and others were "supposedly" on the table. Without a reasonable report of specific players, I find it very hard to judge F&L this time around. 3. That said, IF the offer was De Leon plus "junk" (i.e., not Bellinger, Stewart, Buehler, Alvarez or other rumored untouchables), I would decline and move on. Dozier IMO is worth more than that. However, if one of the above was on the table, with or without a third piece I'd probably pull the trigger. And I know many may not agree, but my order of preference for a second piece would probably be as noted above. 4. If I look at this from the perspective of LA, I think the Forsythe trade makes good sense. From their perspective, they do not need an all star replacement at 2B, rather a solid 2-3 WAR guy who won't be a black hole. Yes, Dozier is more valuable than Forsythe, and he's demonstrated this over twice as many years. And all of this goes into reasonable projections for 2017 and 2018. But is the delta worth giving up Bellinger, Stewart, Buehler or Alvarez in addition to De Leon? I suspect not if I'm the Dodgers. 5. I hope there are other options on the table (e.g., Atlanta or San Francisco) but I suspect not. This always seemed like F&L attempting to build a market for Dozier when ther really wasn't one. 6. In all likelihood F&L at this point will wait and see what options are available at the trade deadline this July. Hopefully this will be a good option, but it all depends on whether Dozier has a good start and what teams lose a 2B to injury. Who knows, perhaps Dustin Pedroia goes out and Boston is desperate? Not something I would bet on but I'm ok moving forward. 7. As long as we don't sign Dozier to a market value free agent contract or extension this year or next.

Welcome to the boards! Great first post. Hope we'll see you chime in more often. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

From what I've seen on a number of the TD forumst just about everyone wanted Dozier dealt. The difference is whether or not it was a smart move to trade your best player and a proven MLBer for 1 pitching prospect. I don't think that's a smart use of your assets. De Leon isn't Urias or some other 20, 21, 22 year old who may be a top of the rotation guy. There's very few people out there that think he's a number 1 or 2 arm, and I think this situation shows that the Twins scouts and FO personnel didn't believe he was a number 1 or 2. He's 24 which isn't old for a prospect, but isn't young either. Most people think his upside, not floor, is a number 3 arm. If you want more young upside arms in the organization trading your best player for 1 guy who's upside is a middle of the rotation arm isn't the way to go.

 

I don't know what else was offered with DeLeon but I'm 100% sure it wasn't a 1:1 swap.  

[dbminn]

My dark horse for a Dozier trade is the New York Yankees. If they are playing well the first half and Castro is struggling, I could see Cashman kicking the tires. They have plenty of prospects to make a trade. Phenom Gleyber Torres hasn't played above A+ and is probably at least one more year away.

 

This trade isn't likely but it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

My dark horse for a Dozier trade is the New York Yankees. If they are playing well the first half and Castro is struggling, I could see Cashman kicking the tires. They have plenty of prospects to make a trade. Phenom Gleyber Torres hasn't played above A+ and is probably at least one more year away.

 

This trade isn't likely but it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.

 

They haven't been signing FAs or trading prospects for a couple years, I have suggested them on Fangraphs and here, and most respond that A: they aren't competing this year maybe; B: they are acting differently now.

 

but, I agree, they are a legit candidate when Castro struggles, and if they are in the race. 

[VikingGuy]

Well played by the young guys in the FO.  Dozier may not ever come close to last season's production, but he's certainly worth more than a "#3 type starter". Prospects are just that, unproven prospects.  Dozier is an established commodity.  I'm all about building, but if you can't get value for a player, then keep him and win more games.

[VikingGuy]

  The Yankees.  I hope so, but I doubt it.  I think it's going to come down to a) an injury to a contending team's second baseman, or an unexpected contender in need of a second baseman.  If I'm Falvine, I don't wait to the deadline if possible.  Sooner deal gets done, more value Dozier has.

  At the end of the day, if they can't get value, Twins could be a lot worse off than keeping Dozier, extending him and making him part of the build.

[jimmer]

As a team with a very good track record for identifying and developing starters, Rays GM said of the trade,'The way we have him evaluated and his proximity to the big leagues, it was an opportunity we couldn't pass up as an organization.'

[VikingGuy]

I've seen Aybar's name thrown around as a possible SS option.  Perhaps sign him, make Polanco that super-utility guy Santana has been and give Santana the boot.  

[tobi0040]

The problem with waiting is Dozier is very unlikely to have more value than he does right now.

 

Even if he produces at the same rate come July, he will only have a year and 2 months left, let alone the field of teams bidding will be smaller.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I've seen Aybar's name thrown around as a possible SS option.  Perhaps sign him, make Polanco that super-utility guy Santana has been and give Santana the boot.  

The problem with this is that Santana isn't really a super utility guy. He's an outfielder who could play IF in an emergency. Polanco would basically be the reverse, but that's also the exact same role Escobar fills. I don't see how they add another infielder unless they remove one of those two from the equation.

[Adam Peterson]

Taking off our Twins fan blinders, where do you all view De Leon versus Berrios as a prospect in a deal like this? I see similar type of minor league (and unfortunately major league) numbers, but for me a key difference is the health and innings which make De Leon more of a risk.

 

I think the two have similar *upside* but it's at least a #2, borderline #1 IMO. Of course this is only upside and not realistic value. For both there is a significant chance of not reaching upside, but there is also the real possibility that they end up at median value, which I would peg at around #3 or #4 given the chance of flameout due to injury etc. For comparison, I would peg Urias' median value at around a #2 starter with ace upside.

 

I ask because I see a lot of comments talking about De Leon having "#3 starter upside" when IMO this is not the case...we are talking something more akin to median value across many different career scenarios.

[Dantes929]

Anything to the rumor that our new likely trading partner for Dozier is the Tampa Rays and that they are offering DeLeon and some prospects?

[gunnarthor]

 

Taking off our Twins fan blinders, where do you all view De Leon versus Berrios as a prospect in a deal like this? I see similar type of minor league (and unfortunately major league) numbers, but for me a key difference is the health and innings which make De Leon more of a risk. I think the two have similar *upside* but it's at least a #2, borderline #1 IMO. Of course this is only upside and not realistic value. For both there is a significant chance of not reaching upside, but there is also the real possibility that they end up at median value, which I would peg at around #3 or #4 given the chance of flameout due to injury etc. For comparison, I would peg Urias' median value at around a #2 starter with ace upside. I ask because I see a lot of comments talking about De Leon having "#3 starter upside" when IMO this is not the case...we are talking something more akin to median value across many different career scenarios.

Berrios is the better prospect - he's about 2 years younger and was more highly regarded by prospect guys.  As you mention, he was more durable in the minors. De Leon is taller so probably doesn't hear the downward plane issue as much.  But they are fairly close.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Berrios is the better prospect - he's about 2 years younger and was more highly regarded by prospect guys.  As you mention, he was more durable in the minors. De Leon is taller so probably doesn't hear the downward plane issue as much.  But they are fairly close.  

 

Today, the FG prospect guy said he has a flat FB like Berrios......

[Twinfan603]

I think JDL's ceiling is a #3 with some minor durability concerns (i can't see him averaging more than 150-160 innings per year). It isn't just the shoulder soreness, but his weight deviations over the years that alarm me. I know it seems minor, but the amount of weight he lost last offseason training with his tennis player gf is a bad sign. You're going to lose weight during the season too, so if staying lean opens you up to health problems then getting through 6 months with consistent weight and strength is highly questionable.

 

I don't know how much to let Berrios's disasterous 2016 season affect my image of him, but I was hopeful he'd be a respectable 2; if he becomes a solid 3 I still think that's a win. If he's throwing 93-95 like he seemingly was in the minors then I think he'll get there, but if for some reason he keeps up the 91-93 stuff he was working with a lot last year, I'm worried he won't be going anywhere. I haven't seen him pitch in person though, so I especially can't comment on his short stature affecting his fastball's downward plane.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Bingo. Even if we assume that De Leon was the only thing offered to the Twins (I doubt it) and we peg him as only having #3 starter upside (I view him as a future #2) trading Dozier may have been the best move. Yes, you don't want to sell low on your prized asset, but at the same time you can only take what the market will give you. Price or value is determined by what the purchaser willing to pay (sorry Karl Marx, but I'm dropping economic truth bombs up in here). 

 

I respectfully disagree. I think Dozier is worth more to the Twins than a POTENTIAL #2 or #3 starter. We might not know for 3 or 4 years if this was the right move. The way De Leon pitched in the majors last year, I question whether he'll get to a #2 status anytime soon. He might be a #5 in 2017, a #4 in 2018, and not get to a #2 until 2020. You don't know. 

 

The Twins needed more than just one decent prospect for Dozier – even if the market is soft. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Berrios is the better prospect - he's about 2 years younger and was more highly regarded by prospect guys.  As you mention, he was more durable in the minors. De Leon is taller so probably doesn't hear the downward plane issue as much.  But they are fairly close.  

 

What do you mean by "more highly regarded".  I would characterize the love/hate swings on Berrios and DeLeon as pretty similar.

[Monkeypaws]

Until some of you all got MLB cred, i.e., more than a computer with internet and an opinion, hence a job in the system, I'm thinking our new brain-trust probably knew what they were doing better than they are gettting credit for here.

 

Baseless predictions, what ifs, shoulda woulda couldas: yeah I know that is what hot-stove is all about, but these guys are in the business of winning ballgames, and keeping Dozier seems like a solid move toward that goal.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

As a team with a very good track record for identifying and developing starters, Rays GM said of the trade,'The way we have him evaluated and his proximity to the big leagues, it was an opportunity we couldn't pass up as an organization.'

 

funny you mention that... they got that reputation under some guy named Friedman...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

  The Yankees.  I hope so, but I doubt it.  I think it's going to come down to a) an injury to a contending team's second baseman, or an unexpected contender in need of a second baseman.  If I'm Falvine, I don't wait to the deadline if possible.  Sooner deal gets done, more value Dozier has.

  At the end of the day, if they can't get value, Twins could be a lot worse off than keeping Dozier, extending him and making him part of the build.

 

I would argue that the Pirates might be a decent fit as well.  Their 2B production was pretty bad if I remember right.  But the Yankees are a great fit. Only real draw back is that their best pitching prospects are hitting AA this year. That doesn't really help us in 2017 or even 2018.

[TooSmartForEweNow]

The market for teams needing second basemen was too thin. 

 

1-for-1 is far too risky, especially for a pitcher with mid-rotation upside and some shoulder issues. 

 

As nice as it would have been to move Dozier for pitching, the Twins played this one right. They still have him for 2 more years and can get another 24 year old pitching prospect one for one at the deadline - so this offer made no sense whatsoever to the Twins. 

[TooSmartForEweNow]

 

I respectfully disagree. I think Dozier is worth more to the Twins than a POTENTIAL #2 or #3 starter. We might not know for 3 or 4 years if this was the right move. The way De Leon pitched in the majors last year, I question whether he'll get to a #2 status anytime soon. He might be a #5 in 2017, a #4 in 2018, and not get to a #2 until 2020. You don't know. 

 

The Twins needed more than just one decent prospect for Dozier – even if the market is soft. 

 

 

Absolutely. The "take whatever you can get for him" mentality doesn't make any sense when you have another year and a half worth of time that you can trade him. DeLeon has a ton of question marks and according to every scouting report, 2 is his ceiling (meaning that's the best a team should hope for). It's much more likely for him to be a back of the rotation guy, and who knows what will happen with his shoulder. 

[TheLeviathan]

This team needs a #2 starter more than it needs two Brian Doziers.

 

Has the off-season caused us to forget that you also have to stop the other team from scoring too?

[PseudoSABR]

 

As a team with a very good track record for identifying and developing starters, Rays GM said of the trade,'The way we have him evaluated and his proximity to the big leagues, it was an opportunity we couldn't pass up as an organization.'

You realize that the man who presided over that track record is the one who dealt JDL, right? So I'm not sure why we should grant any more credence to what the TB GM thinks of the trade he just made. 

Edited January 25, 2017 by PseudoSABR

[PseudoSABR]

 

This team needs a #2 starter more than it needs two Brian Doziers.

 

Has the off-season caused us to forget that you also have to stop the other team from scoring too?

Has any one denied our top priority is starting pitching? That said, the most foolish thing to do would be deal your most valuable asset in a depleted market just fill a need.  

 

Bad teams can't waste valuable assets.   

[TheLeviathan]

 

Has any one denied our top priority is starting pitching? That said, the most foolish thing to do would be deal your most valuable asset in a depleted market just fill a need.  

 

Bad teams can't waste valuable assets.   

 

Denied?  No, I don't think so.  Dramatically underappreciated the need?  God yes.

 

And I would argue we could retain Dozier and still end up "wasting" him.  In fact, I'd argue retaining him is most likely to end in us wasting that asset. 

 

(And we've been over the fact that I wouldn't just give him away, but I'd have found a way to make that deal happen with DeLeon)