Article: Falvey's First Stand

[Nick Nelson]

Derek Falvey was probably still unpacking his boxes at Target Field when communications first opened with the Los Angeles Dodgers, setting off months of Brian Dozier trade negotiations that would ultimately prove fruitless.

 

The standoff will almost certainly prove to be a defining point in Falvey's young career.It was quite the situation to inherit. Held up by Cleveland's run to the World Series, Falvey got a belated start with the Twins. At 33, the second-youngest top baseball executive in the league found himself almost instantly entangled in a high-stakes showdown with one of the game's most legendary franchises – led by a high-profile exec in Andrew Friedman – over the best player on his new team.

 

Shortly after he came aboard, Falvey brought in his general manager, Thad Levine. It's likely that Levine handled the majority of the direct discussions. But the two (along with Rob Antony and the rest of the front office) agreed upon a minimum return that would justify moving Dozier, and their unwavering commitment to that valuation ultimately falls upon the top dog.

 

Without knowing the specifics of the best offer Minnesota turned down, it is difficult to cast any immediate judgments. We know Jose De Leon was on the table, but indications continue to suggest that Los Angeles refused to include one of Julio Urias, Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler in addition. A lengthy stalemate ensued.

 

On Monday, the Dodgers finally made their move, dealing De Leon instead to the Tampa Bay Rays for second baseman Logan Forsythe, who could fairly be described as "Dozier Lite." Barring some hugely unforeseen development, the Twins will carry now Dozier into the 2017 season.

 

At this moment, that looks like the right move. De Leon is a shiny prospect, and exactly the type of player Minnesota needed back as a headliner, but with a 1-to-1 swap and no meaningful auxiliary components the risks are sky-high.

 

The risk he faces now is that Dozier suffers another first-half slump, or a significant overall regression, while De Leon takes off in Tampa. That glaring missed opportunity would trail Falvey and his front office for a while, especially if the Twins keep wallowing in mediocrity (or worse) and the pitching doesn't improve in a hurry.

 

But I wouldn't say such a combination of outcomes is at all likely. Dozier is a star player in his prime, coming off one of the best seasons in team history. De Leon is a good prospect but hardly a can't-miss. While his numbers in the minors were nothing short of dazzling, there are signs the Dodgers weren't terribly high on him, and not all scouts were either.

 

Per Jeff Passan, the Dodgers held the 24-year-old in lesser esteem than at least three of their other young arms, including one who has thrown five innings as a pro. De Leon has yet to accrue even 115 innings in a season. Baseball America's Josh Norris yesterday relayed a scouting report that pegged him with No. 3 starter upside.

 

And the Dodgers, at the end of the day, were willing to deal him straight-up for a player in Forsythe who is a major downgrade from Dozier.

 

All of these initial indicators point to Falvey and the Twins making the right call. It's possible they'll never get a shot at another prize like De Leon, but that's the gamble they are taking.

 

In turn, they've got a lot of outs. If Dozier sustains – hell, even improves – and a more receptive market develops in July or next winter, there will at least be more robust (if not as top-heavy) offers on the table. And if the Twins manage to jump out to a strong start this season, with Dozier playing a big role? That's an outcome everyone can appreciate.

 

Regardless of how things play out, this much is certain: In his very first weeks on the job, Falvey faced off against a giant in the game, and held his ground. For better or worse, others around the league will not forget it.

 

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[jimmer]

'At this moment, that looks like the right move. De Leon is a shiny prospect, and exactly the type of player Minnesota needed back as a headliner, but with a 1-to-1 swap and no meaningful auxiliary components the risks are sky-high.'

 

-Yeah, we don't know what the offer was.  Assuming it was De Leon and nothing (or nothing significant) just plays into the benefit of the doubt almost always given to the FO (regardless of the names). Find it hard to believe Dodgers offered the same thing for Dozier that they did for Forsythe (basically).

 

'And the Dodgers, at the end of the day, were willing to deal him straight-up for a player in Forsythe who is a major downgrade from Dozier.'

 

-http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-trade-for-brian-dozier-basically/

 

Major downgrade if Dozier has another year like he did in 2016 or improves.  I would bet zero dollars and zero cents either of those things happen.

Edited January 24, 2017 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

The reality is all the other teams knew Dozier was available and the DeLeon deal was the best offer. I think that speaks volumes regarding how he is viewed. 2B is a deeper position now and teams seem to believe 2016 was a fluke year. For instance, Forsyth has a career OPS plus of 103, while Dozier sports a 108. If you believe 2016 was a fluke they are close to the same player.

[Nick Nelson]

 

-Yeah, we don't know what the offer was.  Assuming it was De Leon and nothing (or nothing significant) just plays into the benefit of the doubt almost always given to the FO (regardless of the names). Find it hard to believe Dodgers offered the same thing for Dozier that they did for Forsythe (basically).

Why do you find that hard to believe? That's what basically every report seems to allude.

 

As tobi notes above, any team viewing Dozier's 2016 as a fluke may not see a ton of difference between him and Forsythe. It's very plausible, and perhaps even likely, Friedman and LA felt this way. In that event, why would they offer a ton more for Dozier? 

[jimmer]

 

Why do you find that hard to believe? That's what basically every report seems to allude.

 

As tobi notes above, any team viewing Dozier's 2016 as a fluke may not see a ton of difference between him and Forsythe. It's very plausible, and perhaps even likely, Friedman and LA felt this way. In that event, why would they offer a ton more for Dozier? 

Nobody said a ton more, but not hard to believe it was De Leon plus another decent prospect, like Calhoun.  Passan's tweet seems to suggest a third prospect (or the third prospect) was the issue. So who knows how good the 2nd prospect was, and it was the third prospect that was holding things up.

 

You said, 'Without knowing the specifics of the best offer Minnesota turned down, it is difficult to cast any immediate judgments.'

 

Based on what you wrote after saying that, it didn't seem you found it very difficult to cast an immediate judgment at all  Your judgment was clearly that the Twins made the right decision to keep Dozier.  Maybe you meant, 'Without knowing the specifics of the best offer Minnesota turned down, it is difficult to say the FO did the wrong thing'?

Edited January 24, 2017 by jimmer

[KirbyDome89]

The only way this was absolutely the right decision is if Dozier repeats (or improves upon) the second half he had last year and the market for 2B suddenly booms. I'm not holding my breath waiting for either to happen....

 

It would be one thing if they were in talks with other teams at the moment, but if all they can do now is bank on the above criteria and sell us optimism about Dozier leading the Twins to a strong start, I can't see this as anything but disappointing. 

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by KirbyDome89

[drivlikejehu]

Since Forsythe is 30 and has one good, full season in the Majors, I'm not sure how much sense it makes to hold 2016 against Dozier. Forsythe has about half of Dozier's career WAR.

[DaveW]

Beyond my reports about the trade offer, I think it's a stretch for people to suggest the dodgers made the same

Offer for Dozier as they did with Forsythe. Dozier by far is the better player now, has a better upside and a better floor as well.

 

Im not going to pat the FO on the back for this off season which has yielded Castro on a 3 year deal (too long) and zilch else.

[KirbyDome89]

Dozier is 29 so I don't think the age gap is really that relevant. In the same way that I don't think Dozier is as bad as that stretch from the end of 15' until the middle of 16', I also don't believe he is the player we saw at the end of last season. That isn't holding anything against him. 

[jimmer]

 

Beyond my reports about the trade offer, I think it's a stretch for people to suggest the dodgers made the same
Offer for Dozier as they did with Forsythe. Dozier by far is the better player now, has a better upside and a better floor as well.

Im not going to pat the FO on the back for this off season which has yielded Castro on a 3 year deal (too long) and zilch else.

Well, remember, getting Castro was clearly the Twins top priority from the get-go.  

 

I thought it should be trading for some quality pitching prospects, but alas.

Edited January 24, 2017 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

I genuinely hope this doesn't blow up in our face.  I'm also going to be far from shocked if it does.

[DaveW]

I genuinely hope this doesn't blow up in our face. I'm also going to be far from shocked if it does.

#minnesotasports

[AZTwin]

I'm okay with the non move here. Don't sell pennies on the dollar when you have 2 years to potentially get more (or at least production out of him)

[Dantes929]

Looking at the stats it looks like maybe Forsythe is Polanco lite.     I was skeptical of Dozier's first half of 2015 because it seemed like all he did was feast on the same pitch that they just kept giving him.    Hence the slump of 2nd half 2015.  Consensus was that if he could not adjust he would wallow in mediocrity.   First half of 2016 seemed to confirm this even though it looked like he was trying to step toward the pitcher instead of pulling everything.    Then, he took off and he was hitting everything and to all fields. He still pulls the ball but it doesn't look like he is trying to do that which makes all the difference.    His quick hands and good eye serve him well and I am much more optimistic he can have a great year than I was after 2015 or even all star break 2015.     Of course, hindsight might say an even trade is the right choice.   You play the odds.    

[Rosterman]

I can live with keeping Dozier if Polanco can play short. I would rather have Escobar as the utility guy.

 

But, yes, it shows how other teams are valuing he players the Twins have. Combine that with the crop of inor league free agents the Twins put on contract...meaning right now there's not a lot of space at AAA for AA guys from last year.

 

Be interesting to see who egts the push and how long the leash i on the spohs.

 

[Han Joelo]

I'll go with the narrative that we just found out how valuable DeLeon is, rather than Dozier. The Dodgers are probably ecstatic someone bought there buffed out prospect. They are good--they got maximum value out of him. Turns out max value was Forsythe, not Dozier.

 

Will Falvey look better when those other Dodger prospects turn out better than DeLeon? I.E. He was correct in holding out? Anyway, 5000 comments later, I'm mercifully free of this nonsense.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, there really isn't any reason to doubt Steve Adams characterization of the Dodgers offer to the Twins as De Leon "and junk."

[USAFChief]

'At this moment, that looks like the right move. De Leon is a shiny prospect, and exactly the type of player Minnesota needed back as a headliner, but with a 1-to-1 swap and no meaningful auxiliary components the risks are sky-high.'

 

-Yeah, we don't know what the offer was.  Assuming it was De Leon and nothing (or nothing significant) just plays into the benefit of the doubt almost always given to the FO (regardless of the names). Find it hard to believe Dodgers offered the same thing for Dozier that they did for Forsythe (basically).

 

'And the Dodgers, at the end of the day, were willing to deal him straight-up for a player in Forsythe who is a major downgrade from Dozier.'

 

-http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-trade-for-brian-dozier-basically/

 

Major downgrade if Dozier has another year like he did in 2016 or improves.  I would bet zero dollars and zero cents either of those things happen.

So on the one hand, there isn't a great deal of difference between Dozier and Forsythe, but on the other hand, the Dodgers offered significantly more for Dozier than Forsythe?

 

That doesn't make sense to me.

[jimmer]

 

So on the one hand, there isn't a great deal of difference between Dozier and Forsythe, but on the other hand, the Dodgers offered significantly more for Dozier than Forsythe?

That doesn't make sense to me.

Do these words sound familiar? 'when a poster starts to invent positions not taken by others, it is easy for escalation'. 

 

Anyway, doesn't make sense to me either.  Then again, I never said I believed the Dodgers offered significantly more for Dozier than what they did for Forsythe, just that I believe they offered more (and Jeff Passan's tweet seems to back that up).

 

Additionally, that article about Forsythe and Dozier being very close is just one person's opinion, who knows whether that's the same opinion across the league.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by jimmer

[Platoon]

SO is a good word. SO if the Twins did not trade Dozier for a piece that was described thusly, "It's possible they'll never get a shot at another prize like De Leon, but that's the gamble they are taking.", what is next? SO do they spend bucco bucks on a good SP, which btw seems neither available or in the teams DNA. SO do they trade a high ranking young player, or prospects? SO how do they fix SS and the lousy roster construction. SO far this FO looks like another Ryan, but with two better heads of hair. Fortunately SO is also the operative word in that sentence! Right now that is my only consolation.

[Boom Boom]

The winner of the Brian Dozier sweepstakes is.... the Twins! Whoo! We did it!

[USAFChief]

 

Do these words sound familiar? 'when a poster starts to invent positions not taken by others, it is easy for escalation'. 

 

Anyway, doesn't make sense to me either.  Then again, I never said I believed the Dodgers offered significantly more for Dozier than what they did for Forsythe, just that I believe they offered more (and Jeff Passan's tweet seems to back that up).

 

Additionally, that article about Forsythe and Dozier being very close is just one person's opinion, who knows whether that's the same opinion across the league.

"Major downgrade if Dozier has another year like he did in 2016 or improves.  I would bet zero dollars and zero cents either of those things happen."

 

If Forsythe isn't a "major downgrade" from Dozier, then he's a minor downgrade, right?  

 

If that's not what you're saying, my bad.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Since Forsythe is 30 and has one good, full season in the Majors, I'm not sure how much sense it makes to hold 2016 against Dozier. Forsythe has about half of Dozier's career WAR.

A month on the DL last year and it is invalidated as a "full season"? Neat trick. Forsythe still had 567 PA last year. (Your career retrospective on Mauer should be interesting, dismissing 2009 as "not a full season" )

 

Forsythe and Dozier also have an equal number of qualifying seasons above a 104 OPS+.

 

Per PA, Forsythe actually has more bWAR over the last 2 years than Dozier. Dozier has the advantage in fWAR rate over that same period.

 

They are virtually the same age too, and both late bloomers. The big difference is that Dozier bloomed a little earlier, and then had the HR binge late last year. A big part of their difference going forward is in how one projects that HR binge. Steamer prefers Dozier by about 0.9 WAR next year given the same number of PA (I haven't had a chance to check ZIPS yet).

[jimmer]

"Major downgrade if Dozier has another year like he did in 2016 or improves. I would bet zero dollars and zero cents either of those things happen."

 

If Forsythe isn't a "major downgrade" from Dozier, then he's a minor downgrade, right?

 

If that's not what you're saying, my bad.

I believe Forsythe is a downgrade from Dozier but not a huge one. Dozier should have gotten more in return but not significantly more. I believe we were offered more than De Leon and that the hold up was the third piece, whether that means having a third piece at all or who the third piece was.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I especially liked Nick's last point. I do a lot of negotiating in my job. I want the other side to believe me when I say something. I want my credibility to be established. Those folks whom I don't know are difficult to negotiate with successfully. However if I know my opponent's credibility to be true and honest, based on past experiences, then I respect that and I know he means what he says. It seems to me that Falvey and Levine did not blink and the Dodgers and the GM's of the other teams have taken notice with regard to future dealings with F & L. That is what I am going to take from LA dodging Dozier.

[hybridbear]

I predict that Dozier is going to slump now and his value will only plummet. That's just the way it works in #Minnesotasports... *sigh*

[nytwinsfan]

 

I believe Forsythe is a downgrade from Dozier but not a huge one. Dozier should have gotten more in return but not significantly more. I believe we were offered more than De Leon and that the hold up was the third piece, whether that means having a third piece at all or who the third piece was.

 

Agreed. This is the only way everything makes sense.

[beckmt]

I think the Rays knew what the deal was a week or two ago.  It was then just a case if the Twins would cave.  They did not cave so the Dodgers finally pulled the trigger on the deal they knew they had.

[Comrade Bork]

How come no one ever mentions Polanco as a trade bit. He's being blocked by Dozier now and he's proven himself to be MLB ready with his bat. That's gotta have some value. Trade him now before he stagnates at ss.

 

Mostly its just frustrating watching how we have decent pieces but they have been playing out of position because of logjams that could have been cleared to fill other holes in the roster.

[nicksaviking]

 

I believe Forsythe is a downgrade from Dozier but not a huge one. Dozier should have gotten more in return but not significantly more. I believe we were offered more than De Leon and that the hold up was the third piece, whether that means having a third piece at all or who the third piece was.

 

So you think Dozier would not have gotten significantly more than Forsythe AND the Dodgers were offering three players, not two? How insignificant would two additional pieces be then? And why would we care to have them?