Article: Jorge Polanco At SS Could Be Disastrous

[darin617]

I could have made this a topic a long time ago but figured it would get crushed for negative and against the Twins.

[Parker Hageman]

I want to preface this by saying, like Nick, I'm not confident in Polanco being an everyday shortstop. As he wrote, I believe Polanco has some tools to be serviceable but does not seem to have that first step necessary to be an elite defender at the position. 

 

This isn’t meant as an add-on to Nick’s Polanco analysis and it is a bit of a tangent and data dump and a steam of consciousness, but I do want to clear up some issues when weighing analysis on advanced defensive metrics -- especially regarding middle infielders – which have been bandied about the site lately.

 

Since 2003, when Fangraphs began to collect and publish Revised Zone Rating (RZR), shortstop conversion rate for plays within a shortstop's zone was at an all-time low in 2016. For those unfamiliar, RZR is essentially the raw form of Ultimate Zone Rate (UZR).    

 

 

Last year, just 77% of balls in a shortstop's designated zone were converted to outs. By comparison, they were converted to outs at an 82%+ rate in 2008, 2011, 2009 and 2003 (although I think 2003’s 88% is an outlier). The biggest difference, of course, is the increased use in defensive shifts over the last three seasons.

 

According to Fangraphs, traditional shifts were employed in 13,000 plate appearances in 2014 and 28,000 in 2016. These means there were that many alignments where the shortstop was positioned not in the designated shortstop zone. When a grounder slips through the left side while the shortstop was positioned on the right side of second base, well, that data point is still bucketed in RZR's "ball in zone" (BIZ) and the shortstop is marked for not having made that play. 

 

On the flip side, with some many additional shifts, shortstops now have seen a large jump in Out Of Zone plays (OOZ). This past season, there were over 1,300 plays made outside of the standard zone by a shortstop over the 2003 season mostly due to the new positioning.  

 

 

 

 

For those unfamiliar, RZR is essentially the raw form of Ultimate Zone Rate (UZR). UZR is based on a grid zone chart of plays made/missed before they synthesize it to make it comparable across the league’s average. However, before UZR spits out its final number, they remove all shift plays from the equation. If a shortstop is lined up on the right side of the base and makes a play, UZR doesn’t count it. Likewise, if he’s in a shift and Adam Eaton slaps a ball to the left side to the vacated space, the shortstop doesn’t get hurt on the play (like he would in the RZR metric). So UZR simply ignores potentially hundreds of batted balls a year.

 

UZR is also factored into other metrics such as WAR and the SABR Defensive Index. To me this feels incomplete and reducing the metric – particularly in the face of a growing practice of defensive shifts. Even the founder of UZR has voiced his opinions regarding the use of the data:

 

https://twitter.com/mitchellichtman/status/720422490359476225

 

More and more I wonder if those elite shortstop defenders – the Carlos Correas and the Francisco Lindors – also benefit from having outstanding coaches/front office members who are able to line them up in the optimal location (as well as a pitching staff who executes their pitches). The Cubs curbed their use of defensive shifts in part because they believed they could put their players in the right spot and have their pitchers execute. Likewise, the Dodger, who have every sabermatrician born in their front office, rarely used the defensive shifts. Now, both teams have very good defenders at short that may compensate but the Twins seemingly used limited batted ball data compared to those two organizations. If the Twins are truly gearing up the front office and coaching staff to utilize data more, defensive positioning will be critical and could lead to improvements (so long as pitchers do their jobs which, yeah…). Again, I know the Twins’ coaching staff has been privy to batted ball data and chart for years but from reports, what the Dodgers, Cubs, Astros and others are doing with that information is way ahead of other teams.

 

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Put this idea in the CRAZY file...

 

Between Dozier and Polanco – which is the better fielder – who has the better range, footwork, instincts, arm?

 

I'd like to see Dozier play SS a few times in ST, and Polanco play both SS and 2B. Dozier played 83 games at SS early in his career, and I bet he's grown some since then. I'd like to see him try SS, with Polanco at 2B, just to see if it would work. I think Dozier is a better fielder than Polanco.

 

Here's another idea – flip the entire infield. Mauer's getting to be a better 1B, and clearly has the arm. Put Mauer at 3B, Dozier at SS, Polanco at 2B and Sano – the weakest fielder – at 1B.

 

Otherwise, if neither Polanco or Dozier cannot cut it at SS, I'd try Vielma until Gordon is ready. Escobar is OK, but not full-time. He's better in the super-utility role.

 

I'm hesitant about putting Polanco at 3B – i'd be concerned about his arm. Better to put Sano – or Dozier – there, if you want better fielding.

 

Here are some combos:

 

     1B        2B        SS        3B

Mauer   Dozier   Polanco  Sano

Sano   Polanco   Vielma   Dozier

Mauer  Polanco  Dozier   Sano

Sano    Polanco  Dozier   Mauer

 

I know. Crazy is as crazy does.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Put this idea in the CRAZY file...

 

Between Dozier and Polanco – which is the better fielder – who has the better range, footwork, instincts, arm?

 

I'd like to see Dozier play SS a few times in ST, and Polanco play both SS and 2B. Dozier played 83 games at SS early in his career, and I bet he's grown some since then. I'd like to see him try SS, with Polanco at 2B, just to see if it would work. I think Dozier is a better fielder than Polanco.

 

Here's another idea – flip the entire infield. Mauer's getting to be a better 1B, and clearly has the arm. Put Mauer at 3B, Dozier at SS, Polanco at 2B and Sano – the weakest fielder – at 1B.

 

Otherwise, if neither Polanco or Dozier cannot cut it at SS, I'd try Vielma until Gordon is ready. Escobar is OK, but not full-time. He's better in the super-utility role.

 

I'm hesitant about putting Polanco at 3B – i'd be concerned about his arm. Better to put Sano – or Dozier – there, if you want better fielding.

 

Here are some combos:

 

     1B        2B        SS        3B

Mauer   Dozier   Polanco  Sano

Sano   Polanco   Vielma   Dozier

Mauer  Polanco  Dozier   Sano

Sano    Polanco  Dozier   Mauer

 

I know. Crazy is as crazy does.

 

Dozier couldn't throw out Brock from SS (I so wish you could tag people here....).

[Gheggs08]

 

Put this idea in the CRAZY file...

 

Between Dozier and Polanco – which is the better fielder – who has the better range, footwork, instincts, arm?

 

I'd like to see Dozier play SS a few times in ST, and Polanco play both SS and 2B. Dozier played 83 games at SS early in his career, and I bet he's grown some since then. I'd like to see him try SS, with Polanco at 2B, just to see if it would work. I think Dozier is a better fielder than Polanco.

 

Here's another idea – flip the entire infield. Mauer's getting to be a better 1B, and clearly has the arm. Put Mauer at 3B, Dozier at SS, Polanco at 2B and Sano – the weakest fielder – at 1B.

 

Otherwise, if neither Polanco or Dozier cannot cut it at SS, I'd try Vielma until Gordon is ready. Escobar is OK, but not full-time. He's better in the super-utility role.

 

I'm hesitant about putting Polanco at 3B – i'd be concerned about his arm. Better to put Sano – or Dozier – there, if you want better fielding.

 

Here are some combos:

 

     1B        2B        SS        3B

Mauer   Dozier   Polanco  Sano

Sano   Polanco   Vielma   Dozier

Mauer  Polanco  Dozier   Sano

Sano    Polanco  Dozier   Mauer

 

I know. Crazy is as crazy does.

I just can't see them moving Mauer or Dozier to different positions for any reason..

[Platoon]

To me the basic theory of baseball is you cannot hit your way to the pennant. You can win games during the season, taking advantage of weak pitching. That pitching disappears in the playoffs. Good. Pitching. Beats. Good. Hitting. And elite defense at certain positions makes pitchers better. (See Buxton v Shafer) Lots about the game has changed, but some things remain static. Corner guys are bat first, middle guys should be glove first, RF need better arms than LF. A good catcher really makes a staff better. I could go on. These are basics. And until they drastically change the shape of the field, angles and distances will continue to dictate those truths.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess we are about to find out, aren't we. Sigh.

[jorgenswest]

They can go ahead and play Polanco at SS but they shouldn't do so thinking he will turn a corner at the position. That would be foolish. They have had him in the organization since he was 16. They have seen him at the position. A major league ground ball or throw from the hole or feed for a double play isn't that different from those in the minors. It would be like thinking that Pinto was going to become a good catcher or Plouffe a good SS in the majors after seeing them struggle for years in the minors.

 

Polanco needs to have his bat in the line up regularly. He needs major league at bats. Right now it looks like the best option is to acknowledge that his play will cost them runs defensively and play him at SS until Dozier is moved. Meanwhile they can balance it with improved defense at catcher and the outfield. Last year they opened with Arcia and Sano on the corners and Suzuki at catcher. That was a disaster.

[Nick Nelson]

 

To me the basic theory of baseball is you cannot hit your way to the pennant. You can win games during the season, taking advantage of weak pitching. That pitching disappears in the playoffs. Good. Pitching. Beats. Good. Hitting. And elite defense at certain positions makes pitchers better. (See Buxton v Shafer) Lots about the game has changed, but some things remain static.

Spot on. Well said. We've got people saying the Twins should eschew defense for bats immediately after we watched them hit 200 HR, score 720 runs, and lose 103 games? I can't believe my eyes. 

[DaveW]

Polanco at SS with a pitching staff that couldn't strike out a AAAA hitter an inning is a complete disaster waiting to happen IMO.

[Aaron Cross]

I think Gordon is the answer at SS and he better get here soon. Dozier or Polanco will have to be dealt. I hope Sano can lose some weight and commit himself to improving his defense at 3B. And BTW, how sweet would it be to sign Napoli? I know, it's a pipe dream.

 

1B Napoli

2B Dozier or Polanco

SS Gordon

3B Sano

 

There are options. But I'm skeptical they'll make the right decisions.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Spot on. Well said. We've got people saying the Twins should eschew defense for bats immediately after we watched them hit 200 HR, score 720 runs, and lose 103 games? I can't believe my eyes. 

 

Yeah, really bothersome.  And toss in some of the Benny Hill-like defense we saw the last few years and people are really going to dismiss the value of defense?  That Polanco can out-hit his defensive performance?

 

It's when you hear stuff like that, that I start to wonder how people are forming their opinions.  It's ok to admit your favorite team is making a mistake.  And this infield could be a major mistake.

[DaveW]

Yeah, really bothersome. And toss in some of the Benny Hill-like defense we saw the last few years and people are really going to dismiss the value of defense? That Polanco can out-hit his defensive performance?

 

It's when you hear stuff like that, that I start to wonder how people are forming their opinions. It's ok to admit your favorite team is making a mistake. And this infield could be a major mistake.

It's a good thing we have a good:

Starting pitchi....

Bullpe.....

Outfie....

 

Um

 

DH depth?

 

Also this isn't like plugging a 80 power guy like Sano into 3rd where he is prob below average, this is plugging a guy who could

be a league average hitter or so (not a knock) into the most important position in baseball, on a team with a suspect infield already and a pitching staff that strikes out the least people in the whole league.

Edited January 24, 2017 by DaveW

[TheLeviathan]

 

It's a good thing we have a good:
Starting pitchi....
Bullpe.....
Outfie....

Um

DH depth?

Also this isn't like plugging a 80 power guy like Sano into 3rd where he is prob below average, this is plugging a guy who could
be a league average hitter or so (not a knock) into the most important position in baseball, on a team with a suspect infield already and a pitching staff that strikes out the least people in the whole league.

 

Dude.  We're going to lead the league in 9-8 losses.  Probably in 10-7 losses as well.  C'mon....chin up!

[Elliot]

Polanco 2b,

Dozier 3b,

Vielma or veteran defensive SS via FA or trade 

Sano, Mauer, Park, Vargas fight for 1B, DH opportunities.  Let the best man win and the others sit or move to AAA. 

 

Advantages - Dozier, a veteran and leader takes the hit of learning a new position without it affecting his offense (I believe he has the skill set to be an above average 3B).  Polanco, and hopefully Sano, begin long careers at positions in which they have a chance of being average to above average defensively while shining offensively.  3B and SS are arguably two of the most crucial defensive positions on the field, and neither will be filled by Polanco or Sano on an effective defensive team.  At least the starts the process of getting people in the roles in which they can succeed.

 

The 1B/DH competition may be good for both Sano and Mauer.  Based on recent performance Mauer may be the least deserving of the candidates. If he beats out Sano, a trip to AAA may be just what Sano needs to figure things out.

 

Downside - Entirely new infield alignment, potential of blocking Gordon's opportunity at short with a veteran.  Highlights the lack of apparent 3B solutions in the system.

[caninatl04]

How many teams will be "in contention" by the trading deadline? Maybe 20? Subtract the number of those in the AL Central then multiply that by the probability that a team's starting 2B is injured and you get at least one team that will pay or even overpay for Dozier. (The math is completely made up, but...) And, by then, the Minnesota Twins' AAAA (half way between majors and AAA) roster will evolve where they have a better idea what is valuable.

 

Its a lesser outcome than the daydream of Dozier for 3 Dodgers' prospects, but it "ain't bad".

[Mike Sixel]

 

How many teams will be "in contention" by the trading deadline? Maybe 20? Subtract the number of those in the AL Central then multiply that by the probability that a team's starting 2B is injured and you get at least one team that will pay or even overpay for Dozier. (The math is completely made up, but...) And, by then, the Minnesota Twins' AAAA (half way between majors and AAA) roster will evolve where they have a better idea what is valuable.

Its a lesser outcome than the daydream of Dozier for 3 Dodgers' prospects, but it "ain't bad".

 

I'll take that bet, that someone overpays this summer. Assuming over pay is well more than a top 40-60 prospect.....like, that and another prospect in the top 100, which seems to be the price everyone here expects is fair...

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'll take that bet, that someone overpays this summer. Assuming over pay is well more than a top 40-60 prospect.....like, that and another prospect in the top 100, which seems to be the price everyone here expects is fair...

 

Which would be a good bet.  When gunnathor tried to offer examples of top 40 prospects moved for hitters only one was straight up (Lucroy) and both of the other deals included a valuable arm in the deal as well.

 

If we're going to exceed an offer with DeLeon, you can almost bet it won't be with Dozier by himself.  If it happens at all.

[Linus]

I just want the twins to start playing guys at positions where they can be above average fielders. And yes that means Polanco is not my shortstop.

[gunnarthor]

 

Which would be a good bet.  When gunnathor tried to offer examples of top 40 prospects moved for hitters only one was straight up (Lucroy) and both of the other deals included a valuable arm in the deal as well.

 

.

Well, in fairness, I didn't do a comprehensive search. I think Cespedes, Upton and Casey Blake would qualify but the reason you don't see a lot of similar trades is that teams very rarely trade two years and roughly 8 WAR by itself, at least in one player. So other trades have more than one player just to reach that return value.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well, in fairness, I didn't do a comprehensive search. I think Cespedes, Upton and Casey Blake would qualify but the reason you don't see a lot of similar trades is that teams very rarely trade two years and roughly 8 WAR by itself, at least in one player. So other trades have more than one player just to reach that return value.

 

Cespedes did not qualify, Fullmer was never ranked that highly.  Upton returned Delgado but he was a year removed from being on the prospect list, though he had been on it around the same area in 2011.  (The deal happened in 2013)

 

If you're trying to find an exactly parallel deal you probably won't, the key to look for is how often propsect talent of that magnitude is moving for any hitter and then approximate Dozier compared to that hitter.

 

The problem is that other than Lucroy, that hasn't happened.  And that's not hyperbole, it's just not happening.  Virtually every deal I looked at netted guys in the 50-100 range.

Edited January 25, 2017 by TheLeviathan

[specialiststeve]

^{Or the eternal optimist would hope for  a Marcus Semien transformation and we would  be set.}

 

^{I would have to believe they have him (Polanco)  working on his shortstop position. I would still say that he is not the longtern solution there but if can go from not very good to pretty good defensively and still rake it would be okay. Not sure how likely but ....}

[Thrylos]

Want some opinions outside the Twins' organization about Polanco's defense?

 

here.

 

That's before Ryan & Co started moving him around.

[Linus]

Want some opinions outside the Twins' organization about Polanco's defense?

 

here.

 

That's before Ryan & Co started moving him around.

 

Not sure a 2010 scouting report means much in 2017. He was about 12...

[jorgenswest]

Want some opinions outside the Twins' organization about Polanco's defense?

 

here.

 

That's before Ryan & Co started moving him around.

Twins who have received the same recognition as best defensive infielder from 2006-2014. All were shortstops at the time.

 

Trevor Plouffe, Alexi Casilla, Deibinson Romero, Matt Tolbert, Jorge Polanco, Brian Dozier, Levi Michael, Danny Santana

 

I think it is more telling that Dozier, Michael and Santana were seen as better defensive infielders at shortstop over Polanco 2012-2014.

 

Edit: Romero was a 3B when recognized

Edited January 25, 2017 by jorgenswest

[Doomtints]

 

Not sure a 2010 scouting report means much in 2017. He was about 12...

 

The scouting reports that claim he would be good at 2B but not at SS are a couple of years old now too.

At some point you have to let the kid play and forget about the pundits.  We'll see what he's worth at SS very shortly, the Twins gave themselves no other option for Polanco whether he can play there or not.

Edited January 25, 2017 by Doomtints

[gunnarthor]

 

Cespedes did not qualify, Fullmer was never ranked that highly.  Upton returned Delgado but he was a year removed from being on the prospect list, though he had been on it around the same area in 2011.  (The deal happened in 2013)

 

If you're trying to find an exactly parallel deal you probably won't, the key to look for is how often propsect talent of that magnitude is moving for any hitter and then approximate Dozier compared to that hitter.

 

The problem is that other than Lucroy, that hasn't happened.  And that's not hyperbole, it's just not happening.  Virtually every deal I looked at netted guys in the 50-100 range.

Upton was moved a second time for a package that included Max Fried who was a top 10ish pitching prospect (although he might have been injured at the time).

 

But I think you're looking at it the wrong way.  You don't usually see 8+ WAR of talent going one way in a trade.  The handful of trades that did involve top 10ish pitching prosects didn't really care if they were traded for hitters or pitchers.  They were traded for talent.  Which is why it's more important to look at the value being traded and go from there.  There are only a handful of trades in the last half-decade that I think a team traded away a (realistic) 8+ WAR value player.  And those returns were very heavy.  Certainly above De Leon and Stewart, for example.  You should be looking at talent of Dozier's magnitude and seeing what it got back and base a return on that.

Edited January 25, 2017 by gunnarthor

[TheLeviathan]

 

Upton was moved a second time for a package that included Max Fried who was a top 10ish pitching prospect (although he might have been injured at the time).

 

But I think you're looking at it the wrong way.  You don't usually see 8+ WAR of talent going one way in a trade.  The handful of trades that did involve top 10ish pitching prosects didn't really care if they were traded for hitters or pitchers.  They were traded for talent.  Which is why it's more important to look at the value being traded and go from there.  There are only a handful of trades in the last half-decade that I think a team traded away a (realistic) 8+ WAR value player.  And those returns were very heavy.  Certainly above De Leon and Stewart, for example.  You should be looking at talent of Dozier's magnitude and seeing what it got back and base a return on that.

 

Yes, Fried had tommy john surgery at the time.  JDL has a sprained ankle and some low inning counts and we're freaking out about his durability.  At least admit that's about 100x better than a TJ guy as your centerpiece.  I wouldn't use that trade as an example unless you're willing to fairly analyze what your reaction would've been.

 

As for the rest - are you suggesting a total of team controlled WAR years of 8+?  If so, that number starts dropping after his first at-bat....

 

Which reinforces the idea that it is highly unlikely another, better (or even equal) offer is coming down the pipe.  If you're going to argue it will, some precedence would be helpful.  Based on your argument, the best that can be said is "it doesn't happen often enough to know".

 

That's hardly reassuring.  Especially when the few examples that are there don't represent Dozier's value very well at all.

Edited January 25, 2017 by TheLeviathan

[gunnarthor]

 

Yes, Fried had tommy john surgery at the time.  JDL has a sprained ankle and some low inning counts and we're freaking out about his durability.  At least admit that's about 100x better than a TJ guy as your centerpiece.  I wouldn't use that trade as an example unless you're willing to fairly analyze what your reaction would've been.

 

As for the rest - are you suggesting a total of team controlled WAR years of 8+?  If so, that number starts dropping after his first at-bat....

 

Which reinforces the idea that it is highly unlikely another, better (or even equal) offer is coming down the pipe.  If you're going to argue it will, some precedence would be helpful.  Based on your argument, the best that can be said is "it doesn't happen often enough to know".

 

That's hardly reassuring.  Especially when the few examples that are there don't represent Dozier's value very well at all.

What I've been suggesting is that to view Dozier's expected return in the trade is to look at offers that are comparable to Dozier, not look at returns and hope Dozier fits.  That's why I've mentioned several different trades that I think show Dozier's value.  We can now add the Forsythe deal to that list.

 

Whether or not a better deal is in the future is irrelevant to what his value is now.  If you're moving him because you're afraid his value and his return (two different things) will drop, you end up taking bad returns now.

[TheLeviathan]

 

What I've been suggesting is that to view Dozier's expected return in the trade is to look at offers that are comparable to Dozier, not look at returns and hope Dozier fits.  That's why I've mentioned several different trades that I think show Dozier's value.  We can now add the Forsythe deal to that list.

 

Whether or not a better deal is in the future is irrelevant to what his value is now.  If you're moving him because you're afraid his value and his return (two different things) will drop, you end up taking bad returns now.

 

What's the alternative?  Retaining him for fear of taking a non-optimal deal gets us in the boat of Glen Perkins.  How'd that turn out?

 

I'd suggest none of the deals you've found match.  They're either much lighter for a similar player (Zobrist, Cespedes) or they are better for a deal that included a far better player (Lucroy) or a package deal.  (Gomez)

 

And the point of that is to show you that perhaps this is not a "bad return".  Perhaps it's this, soemthing worse, or Dozier languishes for two years as we lose 10-7 every other day.