Article: Jorge Polanco At SS Could Be Disastrous

[Nick Nelson]

If a Brian Dozier trade does not materialize in the remaining weeks of the this offseason – an outcome that is beginning to look increasingly likely – there will be reason for concern on multiple fronts.

 

Yes, the Twins will be leaving at least one premier prospect on the table by holding onto Dozier, and they may never have a chance to recoup that same value in the future. But another factor in play is the short-term outlook for Jorge Polanco, who now sits in a state of flux.

 

One would hope that this new regime has learned a few lessons from the previous one when it comes to placing important young players in these kinds of precarious situations.Dating back to the start of the 2016 season, only one of Polanco's three managers has seen fit to play him at shortstop. That would be Paul Molitor, who wrote the 23-year-old in at the position for 45 of 60 starts with Minnesota, including 39 straight to end the season. Prior to that, Polanco had spent zero time at shortstop with Class-AAA Rochester. And afterward, he spent zero time at shortstop in the Dominican Winter League, which recently wrapped up (per Mike Berardino).

 

From any perspective, Polanco performed very poorly at shortstop with the Twins. He was rated atrociously by advanced defensive metrics. He piled up errors and posted a .942 fielding percentage, lower than every qualified big-leaguer at the position. He flunked the eye test as well, with a plainly visible lack of zip on his throws and an inability to reach tough balls.

 

At best, he's an unfinished product. If you squint, you can see the adequate tools for Polanco to sharpen up and become a serviceable MLB shortstop, at least for a couple of years until Nick Gordon or Engelb Vielma arrives. But that takes a fair amount of faith and optimism. And it's not going to happen if he isn't even spending time playing the position during this formative period of his career.

 

Granted, Molitor only chooses where Polanco plays when he's jotting the lineups. But the Twins obviously can dictate where he plays in the minors. And they surely have at least some level of input regarding how he's used on his winter league team. It is striking that his offseason program is essentially depriving him of the ability to work on strengthening his most important area of weakness.

 

Defense is a vital component of the run prevention equation. Minnesota's forward-thinking new front office leaders are aware of this. And they also know that shortstop is the crux of a defense, perhaps the most important position on the field. There's no reason to believe Polanco can be an asset there unless he makes major strides.

 

So what are we to make of the way things are playing out? It is odd to see the club proceeding without any clear plan at shortstop. At this point we're looking at three possible outcomes:

 

1) Dozier still gets traded

 

Looking unlikely. Thad Levine told MLB Network on Sunday that he plans to have Dozier at camp in a Twins uniform, and that echoes the signals we've been receiving from all corners since the soft deadline passed for getting a deal done. But until the Dodgers pull off a meaningful move to add a second baseman, this option is going to remain in play.

 

If that happens, the Twins are still in a tough spot with shortstop (and they likely skip to No. 3 below for a temporary plug), but at least they're doing right by Polanco. He gets to acclimate at what virtually every evaluator considers to be his future position.

 

2) Roll with Polanco at short and hope for the best

 

This is the direction in which we are apparently heading. It means that not only will Polanco be potentially hurting his pitchers by missing plays, but also burdening himself with that knowledge while simultaneously trying to find his way offensively.

 

Obviously it's not the same thing, but this has an ominously similar feel to the fiasco that played out with Miguel Sano last spring. Polanco is not as disastrous at short as Sano was in right field, but given the higher volume and importance of shortstop he could easily do much more damage. (Indeed, metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating suggest that Polanco had a far more negative effect on run prevention at short than Sano did in right, in roughly the same number of innings.)

 

He's got to take that back into the dugout and the clubhouse with him. This can hurt the development of young players. It can hurt team chemistry. It's all-around just bad, and a pretty ridiculous Plan A.

 

There is one more alternative option...

 

3) Sign a free agent to take over shortstop

 

There are still some solid names out there on the free agent market. Erick Aybar is one we've liked from the start, and suggested signing in the Offseason Handbook. If the Twins were to trade Dozier, I think he'd be almost an ideal fit – a capable, experienced and inexpensive veteran to play between Sano and Polanco.

 

But if Dozier stays, this doesn't really work anymore. Eduardo Escobar is already under contract at $2.6 million so he'll be on the roster, as will Polanco who is out of options. Signing someone like Aybar to slot in front of them would mean carrying both as backups that serve almost the exact same function.

 

That is not anyone's idea of efficient roster management. But the alternative is heading into spring with minimal stability or assurance at a position of the utmost importance.

 

It's a troubling scenario but one that Levine and Derek Falvey needed to be prepared for if they were going to be willing to walk away from the negotiating table. Now, we'll see how they adjust and proceed.

 

Can the Twins and avert disaster? It might require some creativity.

 

Click here to view the article

[TheLeviathan]

This is like the third article in a row I feel you are trolling points I make to turn into articles Nick.

 

I demand co-authorship credit........

 

(And good article!)

[D.C Twins]

?? Option #4 ??  (though obviously also not ideal)....Escobar at short with Planco getting reps at multiple positions throughout the week (2B, 3B, SS, OF)....averaging 4-ish games a week until Dozier situation gets worked out?

 

I guess my honest question is how bad is Escobar's defense vs. Planco's?

[Thrylos]

"Disastrous"?  For an 103 L team to try to see whether Polanco can improve at SS with continuous play?  Nope.  Necessary.   Signing a FA SS would have been akin to keeping Plouffe and blocking Sano.   These guys need to play consistently in a position.  Too young to do otherwise.

[theBOMisthebomb]

If Polanco at shortstop would be disastrous, why keep him if we sign a free agent? Cut him loose at that point, who cares if we sign a veteran and he is out of options? Why not play him and know for sure what we really have.

[Kwak]

Option #4  Polanco replaces Danny Santana on the roster and serenades him with Happy Trails to You.

[Platoon]

Cutting Polanco loose, or making him a Super utility player, isn't the answer. Taking reps from Sano at third? The outfield? Obviously SS? And Dozier sits how many games? Polanco appears to be a very good offensive player who can likely play second base. Putting him anywhere else negates his offense. What's troubling, so far, is no lessons appear to have been learned by management. Key word "appeared". They look to be sitting on a unneeded asset. And they appear to be using offense to evaluate a defensive position, while knowing they have a manager who seems to value such a view. Since they can't change managers, they should have changed the roster. (Yes I know that's drastic) The whole situation, and the continuing roster imbalance continue, even as spring training gets closer. While I am patient, and have faith in the core of this roster, the lack of fine tuning and tweaking necessary to move past a -103 team, is disheartening.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Platoon

[mazeville]

I generally agree, though I would not quite call it a disaster. 

 

To me, though, it signals that this offseason has so far been disappointing. Same coaches but for a few changes. Same pitching staff. Same lineup except for the addition of Jason Castro.

 

My brain tells me to be more patient, that Falvine just got started and need some time to make adjustments and most new regimes start out slow. And this one has a lot of work to do to beef up the front office.

 

But after a 100-loss season, you just want to see more than the signing of one catcher, right?

[laloesch]

 

I generally agree, though I would not quite call it a disaster. 

 

To me, though, it signals that this offseason has so far been disappointing. Same coaches but for a few changes. Same pitching staff. Same lineup except for the addition of Jason Castro.

 

My brain tells me to be more patient, that Falvine just got started and need some time to make adjustments and most new regimes start out slow. And this one has a lot of work to do to beef up the front office.

 

But after a 100-loss season, you just want to see more than the signing of one catcher, right?

 

I echo your sentiments.  Very disappointing off-season.  Sure Falvey and Levine have not had much time to get immersed within the organization but they appear content to roll with what they have.  Perhaps patience is the key here.

[Penthang]

I know they were attempting to move Dozier, but since that didn't happen is this part of the way they move Molitor? By putting Molitor in a position to play Palonco in a position that he clearly shouldn't be playing at the major league level gives Falvy a reason to later let him go?

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I thinks it's a bit of a stretch to make the Sano-to-RF comparison. Moving from 2B to SS is a much less drastic move than 3B/DH to RF.

 

Also, I and I expect most others won't focus too much on defense if Polanco's hitting .285/.340./.430 (his MLB numbers to-date).

[mikelink45]

The FO duo may have needed some time, but we hired experienced people and they had an opportunity for some evening reading to get ready for their new job.  I cannot judge how good they will be because so far I have not had anything to indicate trends, errors, or good decisions.  Unlike most I am not enamored with Castro.  I am fine, we need a catcher and I am glad he is better defensively than Suzuki, but so far he brings us to 100 instead of 103 losses.  Hughes and Perkins and Gibson come back with another level of competence and we are at 93 losses.  The no-names we added to the team through rule 5 and FA signings have to shine in a shocking way and suddenly we are only a 91 loss team.  After the last six years this is not enough.  Remember we had to have a new stadium to compete.  The state did their part now its time for the Twins to step up and do theirs.

[gunnarthor]

 

Cutting Polanco loose, or making him a Super utility player, isn't the answer. Taking reps from Sano at third? The outfield? Obviously SS? And Dozier sits how many games? Polanco appears to be a very good offensive player who can likely play second base. Putting him anywhere else negates his offense. What's troubling, so far, is no lessons appear to have been learned by management. Key word "appeared". They look to be sitting on a unneeded asset. And they appear to be using offense to evaluate a defensive position, while knowing they have a manager who seems to value such a view. Since they can't change managers, they should have changed the roster. (Yes I know that's drastic) The whole situation, and the continuing roster imbalance continue, even as spring training gets closer. While I am patient, and have faith in the core of this roster, the lack of fine tuning and tweaking necessary to move past a -103 team, is disheartening.

I'm not going to comment on everything but didn't the Twins kind of hire a baseball guy to sit in the dugout and manage Molitor?  I know it wasn't expressed that way but I thought Falvey/Lavine put a coach in the dugout.  Perhaps I'm misremembering.

 

As for Polanco, he's blocked by Dozier.  So you either bench him or play him at short or trade one of him or Dozier.  I think the FO's plan was to trade Dozier but it doesn't seem likely to happen.  So they'll probably run with him for now.  In two months maybe he slides over to third, Sano to fulltime DH and Escobar to short.  

[Dantes929]

 

The FO duo may have needed some time, but we hired experienced people and they had an opportunity for some evening reading to get ready for their new job.  I cannot judge how good they will be because so far I have not had anything to indicate trends, errors, or good decisions.  Unlike most I am not enamored with Castro.  I am fine, we need a catcher and I am glad he is better defensively than Suzuki, but so far he brings us to 100 instead of 103 losses.  Hughes and Perkins and Gibson come back with another level of competence and we are at 93 losses.  The no-names we added to the team through rule 5 and FA signings have to shine in a shocking way and suddenly we are only a 91 loss team.  After the last six years this is not enough.  Remember we had to have a new stadium to compete.  The state did their part now its time for the Twins to step up and do theirs.

Our run differential said we should have been a 96 loss team and not having Perkins and Jepsen last year probably would have gotten us there.    That brings your 91 losses to 84.   Buxton shining for a whole season and Berrios with a winning differential equal to his 2016 losing differential of 3-7 and now you are looking at 85-77.   Just a little sunshine for the day but I really think you did the heavy lifting.    My three variables for win difference is more likely than yours.

[Vanimal46]

The way it's shaping up right now, the left side of the infield is going to be very scary for our pitchers... Only Rosario could be considered average defensively on the left side of the field. I'm envisioning a lot of bunt singles and bobbled grounders. 

[Mike Sixel]

No matter what, if he and Dozier are here, Polanco should play SS for half a year, to see what happens, imo. They aren't making the playoffs, if they can't manage to, you know, actually trade older players for younger players, they need to see what they have.

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

"Disastrous"?  For an 103 L team to try to see whether Polanco can improve at SS with continuous play?  Nope.  Necessary.   Signing a FA SS would have been akin to keeping Plouffe and blocking Sano.   These guys need to play consistently in a position.  Too young to do otherwise.

They did that last year. It went about as you would expect. He was terrible. There is minimal reason to believe he's going to improve significantly at SS, especially when he spends his entire offseason playing a different position. Blocking Polanco at short would not be akin to blocking Sano at 3B because SS is not his long-term position.

 

 

I thinks it's a bit of a stretch to make the Sano-to-RF comparison. Moving from 2B to SS is a much less drastic move than 3B/DH to RF.

That wasn't the point of the comparison though. We're talking about how much damage these guys are doing to their pitchers. Last year DRS says that Sano cost the Twins 2 runs defensively in 375 innings in RF, while Polanco cost 8 runs in 400 innings at SS. I'm not one to put a ton of stock into small-sample defensive stats but I believe there's something to that.

[nicksaviking]

I still hope Dozier is traded, but I'm not going to panic if Polanco has to start at SS. Most people seem OK giving Sano another shot at 3B despite poor results; it seems as though most feel he was put in a terrible spot being moved back there after not playing the position for over a year. Polanco was in the same boat, for some reason Mike Quade wasn't playing him at SS in Rochester. Polanco might not have been Quade's preferred SS but it's beyond inexcusable that the front office didn't dictate that he get reps there.

 

But if Dozier is traded, or Polanco can't play the position, I'm just fine with Escobar getting the job back. Last year was the first in three that he wasn't an offensive asset. I certainly like his chances at a rebound more than any free agent. It looks like Erick Aybar is the best available free agent, and he can't hit.

[Thrylos]

 

They did that last year. It went about as you would expect. He was terrible. There is minimal reason to believe he's going to improve significantly at SS, especially when he spends his entire offseason playing a different position. Blocking Polanco at short would not be akin to blocking Sano at 3B because SS is not his long-term position.

 

They did not do that last year.  They made Polanco start the season at 2B in AAA, moved him to the majors and had him start only 45 games at  SS.  He needs to come to ST with the SS mind set and play 100+ games in the position.  Cannot toss him all over the place and ask him to improve.  He deserves at least the chances that Koskie, Morneau, and Plouffe got when they came up as atrocious but young defenders...

[Mike Sixel]

 

I still hope Dozier is traded, but I'm not going to panic if Polanco has to start at SS. Most people seem OK giving Sano another shot at 3B despite poor results; it seems as though most feel he was put in a terrible spot being moved back there after not playing the position for over a year. Polanco was in the same boat, for some reason Mike Quade wasn't playing him at SS in Rochester. Polanco might not have been Quade's preferred SS but it's beyond inexcusable that the front office didn't dictate that he get reps there.

 

But if Dozier isn't traded, and Polanco can't play the position, I'm just fine with Escobar getting the job back. Last year was the first in three that he wasn't an offensive asset. I certainly like his chances at a rebound more than any free agent. It looks like Erick Aybar is the best available free agent, and he can't hit.

 

Agreed on the playing SS part. It's like there was no long, or even short term, plan for how Dozier and Polanco are on the same roster. I really don't get the planning at all, frankly.

[laloesch]

 

I'm not going to comment on everything but didn't the Twins kind of hire a baseball guy to sit in the dugout and manage Molitor?  I know it wasn't expressed that way but I thought Falvey/Lavine put a coach in the dugout.  Perhaps I'm misremembering.

 

As for Polanco, he's blocked by Dozier.  So you either bench him or play him at short or trade one of him or Dozier.  I think the FO's plan was to trade Dozier but it doesn't seem likely to happen.  So they'll probably run with him for now.  In two months maybe he slides over to third, Sano to fulltime DH and Escobar to short.  

 

That was my interpretation of that hire.  Basically a coach to keep an eye on Molitor and reign in a somewhat unpredictable factor. 

[ThejacKmp]

1.) Any blame to Molitor for writing Polanco in at short is misguided. The Twins season was over pretty quickly and the FO wanted to see Polanco play everyday. Since they weren't going to rest Dozier as he pursued a HR record (and built his trade value), that meant SS. Molitor was just following orders as best as he could.

 

2.) I think any assumption that Dozier will be with the Twins is way premature. Trades are all different and it still makes way too much sense for the Dodgers to trade for Dozier. They have a big hole and other options are not amazing: the free agents are lackluster options highlighted by Stephen Drew; Ian Kinsler is old and may have a similarly high cost since the Tigers are not rebuilding (plus he has a no trade clause); and other trade targets don't solve the Dodgers problems as neatly as Dozier (and again cost prospects as well). The Twins and Dodgers weren't miles apart and it makes too much sense for the team to compromise in March and find some middle ground.

[gunnarthor]

 

1.) Any blame to Molitor for writing Polanco in at short is misguided. The Twins season was over pretty quickly and the FO wanted to see Polanco play everyday. Since they weren't going to rest Dozier as he pursued a HR record (and built his trade value), that meant SS. Molitor was just following orders as best as he could.

 

2.) I think any assumption that Dozier will be with the Twins is way premature. Trades are all different and it still makes way too much sense for the Dodgers to trade for Dozier. They have a big hole and other options are not amazing: the free agents are lackluster options highlighted by Stephen Drew; Ian Kinsler is old and may have a similarly high cost since the Tigers are not rebuilding (plus he has a no trade clause); and other trade targets don't solve the Dodgers problems as neatly as Dozier (and again cost prospects as well). The Twins and Dodgers weren't miles apart and it makes too much sense for the team to compromise in March and find some middle ground.

I think the bolded part is certainly subject for debate.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

But if Dozier isn't traded, and Polanco can't play the position, I'm just fine with Escobar getting the job back. Last year was the first in three that he wasn't an offensive asset. I certainly like his chances at a rebound more than any free agent. It looks like Erick Aybar is the best available free agent, and he can't hit.

 

100% agreed. People are way too down on Escobar and the free agent options are ugly. When Esco's been awful, he's been awful but he's also fully capable of Nunez-ing the first half and bringing back something fun at the deadline. And by then the Twins might have a younger, better version of an Aybar in Engelb Vielma. He's already had 90 games in AA (.663 OPS) and if he hits in AA/AAA to begin the season, he'll be a nice placeholder for Nick Gordon. That bat will likely never be a strength but his glove is the best in the system so he doesn't need to do much more than hit .240 in the bigs.

 

No reason to bring in any free agent at short. It may not be a position of strength but the options you bring in aren't likely to be more exciting than the pieces the Twins already have.

 

P.S. I love me some Engelb Vielma. Not just because the name is amazing but yeah, that name is amazing.

[Boom Boom]

2.) I think any assumption that Dozier will be with the Twins is way premature. Trades are all different and it still makes way too much sense for the Dodgers to trade for Dozier. They have a big hole and other options are not amazing: the free agents are lackluster options highlighted by Stephen Drew; Ian Kinsler is old and may have a similarly high cost since the Tigers are not rebuilding (plus he has a no trade clause); and other trade targets don't solve the Dodgers problems as neatly as Dozier (and again cost prospects as well). The Twins and Dodgers weren't miles apart and it makes too much sense for the team to compromise in March and find some middle ground.

Regarding trade rumors, especially those involving the Twins, I would say the safe money is on no trade at all.

 

No way Kinsler costs as much as Dozier, and no-trade clauses don't mean much. I doubt Kinsler and his agent would veto a trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers anyway.

 

The Dodgers have the resources to look elsewhere for now and make another move later if necessary.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think the bolded part is certainly subject for debate.  

team = teams. Both should compromise, not just one.

 

1.) They agreed on the headliner of the deal and then struggled with guys later. It's not like the Twins were insistent on a headlining prospect the Dodgers declared off limits. I know there's a lot left to do but they aren't hitting their heads on a wall. A little give on both sides (the Dodgers agree to include secondary prospects, the Twins back off on the quality of these somewhat) and a deal seems doable.

 

2.) It just makes too much sense for both teams. The Dodgers need right handed pop and a 2B. Assuming Kinsler is going to be hard to get, there's no better solution than Dozier. The Twins need prospects and keeping Dozier creates PT issues for their young guys, mainly Polanco (but even if you move him to 3B then Sano moves to DH and guys like Vargas and Park are squeezed). Both teams are better off if Dozier becomes a Dodger.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Regarding trade rumors, especially those involving the Twins, I would say the safe money is on no trade at all.

No way Kinsler costs as much as Dozier, and no-trade clauses don't mean much. I doubt Kinsler and his agent would veto a trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers anyway.

The Dodgers have the resources to look elsewhere for now and make another move later if necessary.

 

Costs are not always in prospects. Ian Kinsler has indicated that he would want an extension to waive his no-trade clause. Ian Kinsler is a 34 year old middle infielder - the Dodgers' new regime may not want to sign an extension. The draw of a contender isn't as strong for Kinsler since he plays on a team that should be in the mix in the AL Central so it's hard to see him budging from that extension demand. Plus the Tigers are a team that wants to contend in 2017 so trading away their starting 2B is going to take a bigger haul than you might expect, especially since 31 year old Andrew Romine is next in line and he's no one's idea of a prospect.

 

Same thing with Logan Forsythe. He's a nice piece but the Rays have no one behind him and they're not a team that is going to trade at a discount. Forsythe's ability to play multiple positions also makes him a guy who profiles to have way more value at the deadline than in the offseason.

 

I think that last part about looking elsewhere and making moves later is illuminating. The Dodgers have the luxury to look around since no one else is sniffing at Dozier all that hard. I just think they're going to look around and come back to Dozier later in the winter. When the #1 option is Kinsler, #2 is Forsythe and #3 might be Jurickson Profar, Dozier is going to seem a lot nicer.

Edited January 23, 2017 by ThejacKmp

[nicksaviking]

Also, while it's pretty outside the box, I wouldn't mind giving Dozier some time at 3B if/when Sano is off/DH-ing/injured/in the dog house. If Dozier can play the position adequately (and maybe he can't) Dozier/Escobar/Polanco left-to-right might be the best defensive alignment currently available on the projected 25-man.

 

Plus, a second position on Dozier's resume wouldn't hurt come the trade deadline.

 

Still, fingers crossed Dozier is traded for a haul prior to opening day.

[wsnydes]

 

I think that last part about looking elsewhere and making moves later is illuminating. The Dodgers have the luxury to look around since no one else is sniffing at Dozier all that hard. I just think they're going to look around and come back to Dozier later in the winter. When the #1 option is Kinsler, #2 is Forsythe and #3 might be Jurickson Profar, Dozier is going to seem a lot nicer.

This is an important observation in my view.  I want Dozier traded as much as anyone, but I respect the new braintrusts ability to walk away and allow the Dodgers to sniff around.  They know the market as well as the Dodgers do.  In the end, they're confident that Dodgers will see the light and come back and hopefully sweeten the pot a bit.  In the meantime, Twins fans are here stewing about what to do with a roster log jam that wasn't dealt with.  We are still about 3 weeks out before pitchers and catchers report, so there is still time to wheel and deal.  

 

More on topic, as long as Polanco is playing every day, I'll be somewhat happy.  He needs to play, but assuming SS or a utility role is temporary, I can live with a little chaos and uncertainty.  It's if we're still talking about this in July that I'll be bothered by it.  Unfortunately, I believe if Dozier isn't dealt before Spring Training, talking about this in July is exactly what we'll be doing.  I'm still a bit concerned about the two remaining log jams on the right side of the infield.  I think those impact more than the 25 man roster.

[Doomtints]

Disastrous?  No.