Article: Don't Sleep On Phil Hughes

[drjim]

Few things in baseball have a larger gap between meaning and the weeping and gnashing of teeth surrounding it than the opening day roster. If Berrios and May perform they'll get plenty of big league starts.

[USAFChief]

Few things in baseball have a larger gap between meaning and the weeping and gnashing of teeth surrounding it than the opening day roster. If Berrios and May perform they'll get plenty of big league starts.

Berrios for sure, May IF he's a starter. May will be on the 25 man one way or another, but not necessarily in a starter spot.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm not convinced merit will even matter with Santiago. But I fully agree with your second sentence, hence why I phrased that rotation as my worst nightmare,

I think Santiago starts the season in the rotation, but there's a chance he goes to the bullpen or gets traded/or cut. I'm pretty sure Duffey goes to the bullpen to start the season. I'm 50/50 on Gibson going to the BP at some point this season and maybe a 25% chance he starts the season there.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Berrios for sure, May IF he's a starter. May will be on the 25 man one way or another, but not necessarily in a starter spot.

 

Honestly, I've got to think May is ahead of Berrios.  He's actually had some success as a starter, which Berrios has not. He was demoted to the pen out of need, not because he couldn't cut it.  My big gripe is Santiago.  I'd rather struggle with May and Berrios in the rotation then to hand a spot to Santiago, and since he just got a 8M contract for a year, I don't see that happening.  Perhaps F&L think they can flip him for a C prospect if Hughes surprises.  I'm just skeptical.  I wouldn't give up anything other than org filler for him. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Honestly, I've got to think May is ahead of Berrios.  He's actually had some success as a starter, which Berrios has not. He was demoted to the pen out of need, not because he couldn't cut it.  My big gripe is Santiago.  I'd rather struggle with May and Berrios in the rotation then to hand a spot to Santiago, and since he just got a 8M contract for a year, I don't see that happening.  Perhaps F&L think they can flip him for a C prospect if Hughes surprises.  I'm just skeptical.  I wouldn't give up anything other than org filler for him. 

Yeah, if everything goes right with Santiago, you might be able to flip him for a C prospect. No one is going to give much for him.

 

With that said, I didn't mind keeping Santiago. I was pretty lukewarm on the idea and didn't care much either way.

 

But the Twins need pitchers. While we can lament the "logjam" of Hughes, Gibson, Santiago, Santana, Berrios, May, Duffey, that's not really much of a logjam. It's throwing a bunch of mediocrity at the wall and hoping five of them stick.

 

And when you have 5-ish mediocre/rebound pitchers in the mix for rotation spots on Opening Day, there's a high likelihood at least two of them fail immediately and the "logjam" disappears by May 1st.

 

I suspect all of this sorts itself out rather quickly. The only players I really care about on that list are Berrios and, to a lesser extent, May. As long as they're both in the rotation by May 1st (May will probably need to start there, otherwise he'll be relegated to the pen), I can't get too riled up about keeping Santiago in hopes he's not awful.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe Santiago could fetch an Alex Meyer type?

[ThejacKmp]

 

As I mentioned later, I don't go overboard criticizing the move, either, I simply don't think it was necessary.

 

But overall, I'm conservative when it comes to paying players after a big season. I didn't want to do it for Dozier, either, but was fine with buying out his arb seasons because it was such a low-risk move. Little upside, little downside.

 

And that move turned out to be a good one, as Dozier will be paid ~$10m less than what he would have received in arbitration.

 

Yeah, I guess I like the Hughes deal more because it had pretty low downside and pretty high upside. The Twins right now are having the worst of the Hughes downside (well, I guess you could create some crazy world where he's a serial killer murdering Twins prospects but outside of the Twilight Zone, this is the worst case scenario) and it's really not that bad. They've got $11 mill/year invested in a guy who may be injured much of the year or may just be a pen piece or #5 starter. That's a pretty palatable downside.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, I guess I like the Hughes deal more because it had pretty low downside and pretty high upside. The Twins right now are having the worst of the Hughes downside (well, I guess you could create some crazy world where he's a serial killer murdering Twins prospects but outside of the Twilight Zone, this is the worst case scenario) and it's really not that bad. They've got $11 mill/year invested in a guy who may be injured much of the year or may just be a pen piece or #5 starter. That's a pretty palatable downside.

Sure. The dollars aren't really a problem, it's more the length of the contract. Hughes is going to be paid by the Twins through 2019. Technically speaking, his extension hasn't even kicked in yet.

 

And that's a discouraging thought. I hope Phil can rebound. The Twins need a competent starter and they don't need another albatross contract (even though it's not going to kill the payroll).

[ThejacKmp]

 

A solid #3 vs. a weak #5 (or a rookie who needs another year in the minors) is a big difference. 

 

Yeah, I think that is a big deal. I haven't given up on the 2017 Twins yet and think that any chance of them competing in September likely hinges on Hughes being competent. Santana can give them a facsimile of a #1 starter and perhaps there's some solid potential in Berrios/Gibson/May but a Hughes who comes back to some approximation of 2014 is pretty essential.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Sure. The dollars aren't really a problem, it's more the length of the contract. Hughes is going to be paid by the Twins through 2019. Technically speaking, his extension hasn't even kicked in yet.

 

And that's a discouraging thought. I hope Phil can rebound. The Twins need a competent starter and they don't need another albatross contract (even though it's not going to kill the payroll).

 

Yeah, or at least be a solid late inning guy in the pen. $13 million would be a big overpay for anything short of "best ten relievers in baseball" but Hughes could be a really nice veteran piece in the 7th or 8th inning at the very least.

[Doomtints]

 

 

And that's a discouraging thought. I hope Phil can rebound. The Twins need a competent starter and they don't need another albatross contract (even though it's not going to kill the payroll).

 

If there is one thing I have learned watching the Twins over the past five years, the biggest worry is killing a roster spot, not killing the payroll. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If there is one thing I have learned watching the Twins over the past five years, the biggest worry is killing a roster spot, not killing the payroll. 

True, but I hope that problem departed with Terry Ryan.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, I guess I like the Hughes deal more because it had pretty low downside and pretty high upside. The Twins right now are having the worst of the Hughes downside (well, I guess you could create some crazy world where he's a serial killer murdering Twins prospects but outside of the Twilight Zone, this is the worst case scenario) and it's really not that bad. They've got $11 mill/year invested in a guy who may be injured much of the year or may just be a pen piece or #5 starter. That's a pretty palatable downside.

The extension removed a lot of our flexibility and options with Hughes.  Without a long, solid history, you should almost always prefer a pitcher on a 2/16 deal (what he had left) over a 5/55 deal, especially a backloaded one (what we gave him with the extension).

 

Under the pre-extension scenario, you seem to be worried about how much he will cost to retain if he continues performing well over the remaining two years, but you are ignoring the fact that he would have been an INCREDIBLY valuable trade piece under those circumstances, or fetched a valuable comp pick this winter.  (Or, if we really wanted to retain him, he'd probably be worth the $75+ mil he'd command after 3 strong seasons.)  Even with performance regression, he would have been a decent trade chip.  With injury or a lot a performance regression, we would have had the inside track to re-sign him on a one-year bounceback deal like that of Tyson Ross.  So there really was no "bad case" pre-extension, it was pure upside for the Twins.

 

As it stands, the extension made it virtually impossible to trade him for several years.  Even now, if he fulfills our hopes and returns to usefulness in 2017, he is probably not a trade asset for at least 2 years unless we eat cash.  We really have to hope for 2-3 years of health and usefulness from him.

Edited January 23, 2017 by spycake

[notoriousgod71]

This reminds me of the "Joe Mauer is in the best shape of his life" articles.

[Doomtints]

 

This reminds me of the "Joe Mauer is in the best shape of his life" articles.

 

Or "Troy Williamson caught 10,000 balls during the offseason."

[Mike Sixel]

 

Or "Troy Williamson caught 10,000 balls during the offseason."

 

you had to go there.....can't wait to read about Treadwell this off season. ugh. not on vikings journal of course....

[Taildragger8791]

 

Or "Troy Williamson caught 10,000 balls during the offseason."

 

Or "Rubio practiced 1,000 jumpers a day with shooting specialist Mike Penberthy this offseason".

[TheLeviathan]

We should start a thread trying to predict what miracle elixir will be written about for Mauer this spring.  

 

I'm going with Pilates.

[Vanimal46]

We should start a thread trying to predict what miracle elixir will be written about for Mauer this spring.

 

I'm going with Pilates.

He's a dad now, so what would dads do?

 

I'm going with clean eating and elliptical.... Gotta keep the joints fresh!

Edited January 24, 2017 by Vanimal46

[TheLeviathan]

 

He's a dad now, so what would dads do?

I'm going with clean eating and elliptical.... Gotta keep the joints fresh!

 

He's improved his agility and reflexes dodging legos strewn on the floor?

 

It really should be an olympic event.

[Doomtints]

Yeah

 

We should start a thread trying to predict what miracle elixir will be written about for Mauer this spring.  

 

I'm going with Pilates.

 

 

I dunno man. I think they probably should back away from the microphone after using the "new sunglesses" thing last year. That one simply can't be topped.

 

Gladden pointed out on the air that Mauer has a Nike deal, and he appeared to be wearing Nike sunglasses all the time. Product placement at its finest.

In this vein, it would be something like, "I'm trying compression leggings to help with my calf soreness this year." Nike makes those. Of course, Mauer also has deals with Rawlings and Steiner Sports so maybe he will throw them some bones next year. Rawlings makes chin straps that he could try, though it seems like a lost opportunity not having used that one on Nunez.

[Steve Lein]

 

Seriously, tell me how often that has happened for any free-agent signing in baseball history, the extending/increasing of a 3+year free agent deal after one year of it? My intuition says I could count them on one-hand. Possibly one finger.

 

As a follow-up to this given I was so curious. I asked Baseball Prospectus the following question given the Cot's component of their website:

 

"do you know the history of Free Agent signings where a 3+ year contract was extended after 1 season of said FA deal?"

 

Their response, from Jeff Euston, is the following in its entirety:

 

"This is exceedingly rare. Among active players, the only other case of this I can find is Glen Perkins, who also received an extension after one season of a free agent contract from Twins GM Terry Ryan. Absent an opt-out clause like the one in CC Sabathia's first Yankees contract, it's generally not done with free-agent contracts.

 

The handful of other cases in which a player was extended with two or more years remaining were young players who had signed below market long-term deals before free agency, put up performances so strong they were still underpaid, then later signed an extension with the same club. A few of those examples are Miguel Cabrera (March 2008 and 2014), Ryan Braun (May 2008 and April 2011), Justin Verlander (February 2010 and March 2013), Evan Longoria (April 2008 and July 2013), Salvador Perez (February 2012 and March 2016) and Ryan Zimmerman (April 2009 and February 2012)."

 

So realistically, and given Glen Perkins is the only other name they came up with, I can count the number of times this has happened on exactly one finger as lined up with my intuition. And Terry Ryan is literally the only GM to do this in modern times.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Perkins technically shouldn't count either. He agreed on a one year deal for 2012 to avoid arbitration, but then in March 2012 signed a 3 year extension on top of that for 2013-2015. Two years later he signed his next extension, in March 2014.

Edited January 26, 2017 by spycake

[Steve Lein]

 

Perkins technically shouldn't count either. He agreed on a one year deal for 2012 to avoid arbitration, but then in March 2012 signed a 3 year extension on top of that for 2013-2015. Two years later he signed his next extension, in March 2014.

 

Exactly what I was getting at, and the response even reads as he was looking for extensions that happened on any FA contract that still had 2+ years remaining.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Steve Lein

[Twodogs]

 

We should start a thread trying to predict what miracle elixir will be written about for Mauer this spring.  

 

I'm going with Pilates.

Instead of hoping for a miracle elixir, I would like Joe to take an off season strengthening program seriously.  Just doesn't seem like he has gotten any stronger in all of his years, and I can understand being behind the plate and remaining agile and all of that, but he now stands over by 1B, I think maybe getting stronger would help him a lot.