Article: Don't Sleep On Phil Hughes

[Nick Nelson]

Can the Twins compete this year?

 

The general response to this question is going to be no, given that Minnesota finished as baseball's worst team in 2016.

 

However, one thing that would vastly improve their odds would be a return to form – of any sort – from Phil Hughes, who could join Ervin Santana to form a quality veteran tandem atop the rotation if his surgery proves to be smashing success.

 

That, of course, is an enormous "if."One free agent I was very curious to follow this offseason was Tyson Ross, because of his intriguing parallels with Hughes. They are almost the same age (Ross 29, Hughes 30). In 2014, both were at the top of their games, ranking among the best starting pitchers in their respective leagues. Ross continued to pitch well the following season while Hughes dropped off, but chronic shoulder problems caught up to both right-handers in 2016.

 

Ross made only one (terrible) start on Opening Day before missing the entire campaign and eventually undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. Hughes, as we know, fought through with a bad wing and pitched into June before being pegged for the same fate.

 

However, in his case, the decision was made more quickly. Ross didn't go under the knife until mid-October – three months after Hughes, who opted for the operation shortly after his season ended on a line drive to the leg.

 

I figured that the former Padres ace's market might prove telling with regards to how the league at large is currently viewing thoracic outlet surgery, a rib-removal procedure that has been relatively rare for major-league pitchers, at least up until recently.

 

The track record for hurlers who've been through it isn't great. But we've also seen an unprecedented number of high-profile players – including Royals reliever Luke Hochevar and Mets superstar Matt Harvey – elect the surgery within the past year.

 

Earlier this week, Ross signed with the Texas Rangers for $6 million plus incentives. The fact that he ended up with not only a major-league contract, but a reasonably high guaranteed sum, tells us that there was a fair amount of competition for his services. The Rangers aren't the only team believing Ross, who will be only four months removed from thoracic outlet surgery when he reports for spring training, can be a productive starting pitcher this year.

 

(Incidentally, Texas subsequently signed Dillon Gee – another recent TOS survivor – to a minor-league deal a few days later. Does Thad Levine's former front office have some unique enlightenment about this surgery?)

 

Now, there are a few factors worth noting here. Ross has a sturdier history, with a more prolonged run of success in San Diego before getting hurt. And he was one of the lone upside plays in a very uninspiring free agent crop, which surely elevated his appeal.

 

But Hughes will be three months ahead in his rehab, and he has already started throwing bullpen sessions here in mid-January.

 

My observation is that most Twins fans have either forgotten or dismissed the righty's first season in Minnesota, having watched him scuffle along at some fraction of full strength ever since.

 

I can still recall the wave of enthusiasm I felt in spring training of 2014 when I first saw Hughes throw. He was pitching in a side game on a minor-league field, but still, it was obvious the guy had it. He was attacking with vicious stuff, hitting his spots, strutting off the mound. He was young, and he had the confidence you would expect from a guy with his résumé: first-round draft pick, top prospect, dominant setup man for a World Series champ in 2009, 18-game winner in 2010.

 

I wrote at the time about the buzz surrounding him in camp, and included a vintage Ron Gardenhire quote regarding the new acquisition's outing on that fenced-in side field: "Hughesy threw the [expletive] out of the ball." The early positive harbingers were proven valid when the right-hander went on to set the all-time MLB record for K/BB ratio, and turned in arguably the best performance by a Twins starter since Johan Santana's departure.

 

Hughes doesn't need to get all the way back to that level to be a quality rotation piece who helps turn around Minnesota's run prevention woes. The question is how close he can get. And unlike his friend Glen Perkins – who faces a much steeper climb in his return from labrum surgery – I think there's significant reason for optimism this year with Hughes.

 

The widespread interest in Ross, who is a half-season behind Hughes in his rehab, only reinforces that.

 

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[beckmt]

Hope he can return at full strength.  See it to believe it, don't hold your breath.

[Seth Stohs]

There is zero reason to believe that he can't get back to being a quality, upper-half-of-the-rotation guy as early as sometime in 2017. 

 

Is it likely? I don't know. Hard to guess based on the surgery and track record. But it'd be completely inaccurate to flat-out say that it can't happen...

 

And man, would it be nice!

[jimmer]

 

There is zero reason to believe that he can't get back to being a quality, upper-half-of-the-rotation guy as early as sometime in 2017. 

 

Is it likely? I don't know. Hard to guess based on the surgery and track record. But it'd be completely inaccurate to flat-out say that it can't happen...

 

And man, would it be nice!

He has been a quality upper half of the rotation starter once.

Edited January 18, 2017 by jimmer

[D.C Twins]

Every time I see the name "Phil Hughes", I think "wildly unnecessary contact extension." Go New FO!

 

Let's hope for his sake and his livelihood that he recovers.

 

But, I honestly don't think that him returning to #3 starter quality (versus washing out) is going to move the needle that much for the twins season (it would be great if he played well enough to trade him...but alas...the limits of said contract). In fact, we'll probably be better off in the long run moving toward youth ASAP.  

 

[Physics Guy]

Even getting something close to 2015 would be a huge improvement over most of what took the mound last season.

[Willihammer]

Will he be on an innings limit?

[Dantes929]

To me the guys with upside are Santana, Berrios, and May.    If those guys have good years it will make a world of difference.   At this point I consider Gibson, Santiago and Hughes to be back of the rotation starters.   Potentially good back of the rotation which also can make a world of difference.   Consider that only once in the last 6 years have we had more than one starting pitcher doing well for any length of time and that was 2015.  Has to happen again at some point.  Doesn't it?

[jimmer]

 

Consider that only once in the last 6 years have we had more than one starting pitcher doing well for any length of time and that was 2015 2014. Has to happen again at some point.  Doesn't it?

FTFY

[TheLeviathan]

 

He has been a quality upper half of the rotation starter once.

 

Yeah and that's but one of many valid reasons to think Hughes is closer to being finished as a starter than ever being an "upper half" guy.

[drivlikejehu]

I could see Hughes as being an upper-half-of-6th inning-reliever guy as early as sometime in 2017.

[HitInAPinch]

Hughes' career had already fallen into something of a pattern:  record number of innings, injury, bullpen time and back as a starter.  The Twins were incredibly stupid for allowing Hughes to pitch 209 innings just to get 6 stinking wins. 

 

If he recovers from the surgery, he'll be in the bullpen.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Every time I see the name "Phil Hughes", I think "wildly unnecessary contact extension." Go New FO!

 

Let's hope for his sake and his livelihood that he recovers.

 

But, I honestly don't think that him returning to #3 starter quality (versus washing out) is going to move the needle that much for the twins season (it would be great if he played well enough to trade him...but alas...the limits of said contract). In fact, we'll probably be better off in the long run moving toward youth ASAP.

agreed the contract extension was a bit misguided.

 

Disagree that Phil hughes' success doesn't move the needle. While I think the likelihood of success is slim a 2014 caliber performance definitely moves the needle and a 2015 caliber performance at least wiggles it a bit.

 

This team needs pitching and it seems like free agency and trades isn't getting it done, so let's try science.

 

We can (maybe) rebuild him. We have (sort of) the technology!

 

Nananana

[Teddy]

I think Hughes' role this year all depends on the velocity he shows late in spring training. If he's back with the low-90's fastball he showed three years ago, he'll be in the rotation. If he's topping out at 87-89, he'll be a very expensive, "we've got to put him somewhere, so stick him in mop-up duty in the bullpen" guy.

[mazeville]

If you squint really hard, and perhaps wear a set of really strong reading glasses, you can see the possibility of competitiveness:

 

Hughes returns to form; Ervin Santana repeats what he did last year; Jose Berrios reaches his potential; Kyle Gibson improves; Hector Santiago or Trevor May fill out the fifth spot nicely.

 

But, that said, I think I prefer going into the season thinking Hughes as a bullpen piece. He's had some success there. 

[Thrylos]

Little known fact, but as far as T.O.S. survivors go, one should add Twins' own John Curtiss to the list.  He apparently got a twofer and had the procedure back-to-back after TJ surgery and lost the season before the Twins' drafted him.  So slightly different situation than Hughes, but Curtiss' velocity and movement in his FB is encouraging for Hughes.

As far as limiting the innings go:  Unlike TJ that is a reconstructive surgery and one needs to let the reconstructed ligament heal properly without too much stress, so it will not tear again, TOS is kinda like appendicitis or hernia surgery: They cut muscle that needs to heal before someone can go about their business.  The removed rib had nothing to do with his performance.  Of course, as with any surgery returning back to high levels of performance is kinda mental as well...

 

We'll see.  I always liked Hughes as a future closer and at this point the Twins do not have one, while they have a glut of SPs 

[Tomj14]

 

Every time I see the name "Phil Hughes", I think "wildly unnecessary contact extension." Go New FO!

 

Let's hope for his sake and his livelihood that he recovers.

 

But, I honestly don't think that him returning to #3 starter quality (versus washing out) is going to move the needle that much for the twins season (it would be great if he played well enough to trade him...but alas...the limits of said contract). In fact, we'll probably be better off in the long run moving toward youth ASAP.  

I think if he recovers and is someplace between 2014 and 2105, Santana pitches to career norm, Gibson is 2015, Santiago pitches to career norm, and Berrios or Mejia figure it out that is a decent enough staff to give the young hitters confidence that they have a chance to win most games. And since only Berrios or Mejia are ready or close to being ready to compete at the major league level that isn't a horrible plan. Plus you have May as a back up plan.

 

Do I think all of these things will happen? Nope

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

 

But, I honestly don't think that him returning to #3 starter quality (versus washing out) is going to move the needle that much for the twins season (it would be great if he played well enough to trade him...but alas...the limits of said contract). In fact, we'll probably be better off in the long run moving toward youth ASAP.  

I think it would move the needle quite a bit, especially if they can't move Dozier.

 

Replace a below-replacement level pitcher with a 2 win pitcher like Hughes could be a three win swing in itself.

 

Remember that the 2015 Twins were incredibly lucky, about 10 wins better than their performance in BaseRuns. The 2016 Twins were equally unlucky and 12 wins worse than their performance in BaseRuns.

 

While it's easy to dismiss a 59 win team and say "wins don't matter", the 2016 Twins weren't as awful as their record, just as the 2015 Twins weren't as good as theirs.

 

A performance from Hughes - as unlikely as that may be - could help be the difference between an unwatchable and a watchable team this season.

[wsnydes]

 

Hughes' career had already fallen into something of a pattern:  record number of innings, injury, bullpen time and back as a starter.  The Twins were incredibly stupid for allowing Hughes to pitch 209 innings just to get 6 stinking wins. 

 

If he recovers from the surgery, he'll be in the bullpen.

The bullpen is probably where he should be, at least to start the season.  Can he regain that top half of the rotation ability?  Sure, why not?  Do I think it's likely?  No.  I still wish and hope for the best though.

[Dantes929]

 

FTFY

Must have worded my comment poorly.   In 2011 Baker pitched well albeit for only 21 starts.   He was the only one.   In 2012 Diamond pitched well.   He was the only one.   In 2013 Deduno pitched well.  He was the only one.   In 2014 Hughes pitched well.   He was the only one.    .   In 2016, Santana pitched well.  He was the only one.   In 2015 Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Santana all pitched pretty well for a pretty long stretch. Pelfrey and Hughes were good for back of rotation and not coincidentally that was our winning year.  

[Winston Smith]

If they can get 50 innings of semi decent relief work out of him and maybe an occasional spot start they should be happy with his year, imo.

[mikelink45]

I went to Baseball Reference to look at Hughes ten years of service.  He has a total 12.3 WAR and average of 1.23 per year.  His big year with the Twins gave him 4.3 - tax that away and his remaining 9 years of service with an 8 WAR does not give me a reliable pattern to have great hopes after an injury year.  His 10 year average is 8 wins and 7 losses and many of those years were with the Yankees and much superior supporting players.

 

Career Years are difficult.  They raise expectations and contracts, but are seldom repeatable even without injury recovery.  We still have him under contract through the Mauer years so we will look at some way to use him.  

 

I would love to be wrong, I would love to have the stats wrong and show me that a pitcher in his 30s with a major surgery and a mediocre track record can be a star!

[Tom Froemming]

My observation is that most Twins fans have either forgotten or dismissed the righty's first season in Minnesota, having watched him scuffle along at some fraction of full strength ever since.

 

 

This is true, but you could say the same thing about Danny Santana and I don't see anybody predicting him to return to his 2014 form. Maybe that's an apples to oranges situation, but it's tough to look past Hughes' 2015/16 numbers. Over 214 1/3 IP, batters hit .296/.320/.502 off him and he only averaged 5.4 K/9.

 

But you do make some really great points about Tyson Ross' market. Plus, it wouldn't take much for Hughes to represent improvement. Last season, the rotation combined for a 5.39 ERA so even if Hughes posts an ERA of 4.50 he would at least be helping the team go in the right direction.

[Brock Beauchamp]

but it's tough to look past Hughes' 2015/16 numbers. Over 214 1/3 IP, batters hit .296/.320/.502 off him and he only averaged 5.4 K/9.

Phil Hughes will not be a successful pitcher again unless his velocity returns. If his current ailment wasn't causing his velocity issues, he's cooked.

 

And that's the $64,000 question, really. Is the injury and resulting surgery the cause of Hughes' 2015/16 woes or is it something else?

 

We'll know more soon. If Hughes is in the 92-93mph range near the end of Spring Training, he can bounce back. If he's still throwing 89-91, he's done.

 

To me, his 2015/16 numbers are irrelevant to whether he'll make a comeback because those woes were the result of decreased velocity. If the velocity comes back, so will Hughes (to what level, we can argue all day long). If the velocity doesn't come back, neither will Hughes.

[nicksaviking]

Phil's velocity dip occurred in 2015, not last year so I'm not sure if the surgery is going to improve that, but his off speed pitches haven't been terribly good for awhile now either which typically is a problem for starting pitchers.

 

However as he saw with his former teammate Mariano Rivera, a guy can be OK in the pen with a fastball and a cutter. Maybe he can mix his curve in once in awhile or Allen can work with him and he can try the changeup again. Either way, I like him in the pen assuming the move helps increase his velocity as it often, but not always, does.

 

The Twins don't have a closer now anyway, if he's healthy that should be an attainable goal for him. Also, with the sudden frenzy on relief arms, his salary would barely look out of place if he did a decent job back there.

 

[Trevor0333]

I'd really like to see the team commit Hughes to the bullpen early for 2017 with the thought of stretching him back to a possible starter for 2018. He barely pitched last year and was the prior year his FB velocity was down. After such a long break from pitching along with everything else. I'd love to see Perkins & Hughes come back and establish some quality BP depth and prove they can stay healthy while letting the kids fight out the rotation 2-5.

 

 

[SotaFan14]

If all of the starters can improve their ERA by.75 points from last year(Santana won't), with a team ERA around 4.25, we have a chance to go .500 if the bats can score the 5 runs per game needed.  Not sure what our runs per game was last year but it should be close to that mark.  I don't care who is in the rotation and who is in the pen, as long as the pitchers keep us in games, I'll watch a lot more games(I already watch too many, per the wife).  I would drop some coin and go to a few if there was a better chance the Twins could be in every game past the 5th inning this year

[Lonestar]

I don't understand why some curse extending Hughes. No one mentions not trading Hughes after 2014 when his value was highest, but if the Twins were not going to trade him, his extension looks like a good deal.

 

I agree with this Fangraphs pundit who wrote this in the midst of Hughes struggles in 2015:

 

The feeling, I would argue, after Hughes’ 2014 season was that he had become a better pitcher, but not one that would hover around the Cy Young race. The Twins extended his contract and he looked to be a nice building block for a team that was assembling a nice collection of prospects. We rightly expected some regression from Hughes. Our depth charts listed his projection at 3.66 ERA and 3.21 FIP. He was slated to maintain the strikeouts and regress on the walks and home runs. But overall, we pegged Hughes as a four-win pitcher over 205 innings. A slightly worse ERA and a moderately worse FIP. That seemed entirely appropriate.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/both-sides-of-the-phil-hughes-argument/

 

 

That writer blamed a slippage in Hughes' command.  That was evidently before Hughes lost almost 2 MPH on the fastball.  Both problems could be attributable to Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.  We'll have to see if surgery and rehab fix the problem.  If they do fix the problem, I'm not expecting Hughes to return to his 2014 form but he could be better than his Yankee incarnation -- more like 2-3 Wins.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't understand why some curse extending Hughes.

I felt it was unnecessary. The Twins had Hughes for two more seasons and 2014 was easily his career season to date.

 

Yeah, you stand to lose a little by waiting one season to extend that player but you also drastically reduce risk of paying a guy for an outlier season.

 

As it turned out, it was an outlier season.

[d-mac]

 

Phil's velocity dip occurred in 2015, not last year so I'm not sure if the surgery is going to improve that, but his off speed pitches haven't been terribly good for awhile now either which typically is a problem for starting pitchers.

 

However as he saw with his former teammate Mariano Rivera, a guy can be OK in the pen with a fastball and a cutter. Maybe he can mix his curve in once in awhile or Allen can work with him and he can try the changeup again. Either way, I like him in the pen assuming the move helps increase his velocity as it often, but not always, does.

 

The Twins don't have a closer now anyway, if he's healthy that should be an attainable goal for him. Also, with the sudden frenzy on relief arms, his salary would barely look out of place if he did a decent job back there.

 

It is certainly possible that what necessitated the surgery was affecting him back in 2015. That to me seems the most likely explanation for his decreased velocity. However, if it is not like Brock mentioned, then he is toast. I too would stick him in the pen to start the year.